Coronavirus

[Reddington]

I don't think it going to stretch that long or will as as dire as now because testing will be widely available, effective treatments strategies will be developed, we will be more conscious of how we deal with people in the public and there will be a vaccine (long term goal). Professional sports will be able to start back up without fans at some point, I hope in this fall. College I'm not so sure.

Yesterday, Purdue said the students are coming back in the fall. That's big news. The Pres of Purdue says "students of this age are almost zero risk." That's a huge school.

[Timothy A]

Re: Coronavirus

. . . recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave

. . . prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022.

Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...b5793.abstract


Unlike fantasy football, which depends on the results of actual games played, fantasy women’s hockey is likely to remain true fantasy, untethered to the results of any actual games played.

I don't think it going to stretch that long or will as as dire as now because testing will be widely available, effective treatments strategies will be developed, we will be more conscious of how we deal with people in the public and there will be a vaccine (long term goal). Professional sports will be able to start back up without fans at some point, I hope in this fall. College I'm not so sure.

[thirdtime's . . .]

Re: Coronavirus

. . . recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave

. . . prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022.

Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...b5793.abstract


Unlike fantasy football, which depends on the results of actual games played, fantasy women’s hockey is likely to remain true fantasy, untethered to the results of any actual games played.

[Reddington]

Re: Coronavirus

US Canada border still in lockdown. Canadian nurses working in US have been told to pick one as you will not keep going back and forth.

Border could become an issue for hockey if US and Canada diverge on reopening.

[FiveHoleFrenzy]

Re: Coronavirus

I have no idea what model of small business behavior people are using when they argue that they should have 2-3 months worth of cash just sitting around unused in operations, because it's not a model that's possible in the real world.

I have no idea why someone wouldn't understand the need for cash reserves in a business...Oh wait.

[Blackbeard]

Re: Coronavirus

I completely disagree. I'm in the construction field and know of small businesses that both do and don't have such cash savings. I can think of three fellow contractors who went out of business in the last 18 months (all pre-COVID) and all of them did not have such cash on hand. In every case, the reason the savings wasn't there was because the Owner kept taking money out of the business for personnel use such as boats, cars, vacations, etc. Owning a small business isn't that different than managing your own finances. It's all about priorities and goals. The family-owned company I work for keeps 4+ months of cash on hand. The Owners understand construction - like so many small businesses is heavily dependent on cash flow and that even a minor interruption in that can sink the business.

Well said.

When I started my firm decades ago I experienced an extreme amount of frustration during the five weeks or so that I had set for myself before I could open the doors for business. That frustration was from dealing with all the contractors and service providers necessary in attempting to accomplish my goal...all except one, who was a professional painter and a friend of mine, who did what he said he would do, when he said he would do it and charged me a fair price.

All the rest, including the government run phone company at the time, were completely incompetent at providing the service and/or products that they said they would and when they said they would. I opened on time but not without an enormous amount of prodding on my part to put it mildly.

Near the end of that experience I stood alone in my office one day contemplating what had happened and I was hit with an inescapable conclusion which was "most people who are in business have absolutely no business being in business".

Decades of further experience hasn't changed that conclusion...it's only cemented that conviction even further, if that was even possible.

The reasons are many but generally come down to not being sharp or sharp enough with money skills, financial concepts, organizational and time management skills, lacking integrity, product knowledge (their own and their competitors') and a lack of understanding or caring of how easy it is to stand out from all your competitors which would thereby assure them some decent degree of success.

And I agree that many treat their business account as their personal account which is a recipe for disaster. Which ultimately goes back to what D2D was saying and my response to his post.

I even had a good friend years ago approach me for advice with respect to a small venture that he wanted to launch. It was a simple one man operation...nothing complicated. When we sat down do discuss it and I happened to use the term "business" a few times he stopped me and said "No, I don't want to start a business, all I want to do is..." and then he proceeded to explain to me the service that he wanted to provide of which I was already completely aware. I had to explain to him that it didn't matter how small his operation was as long as he was providing a product or a service to someone that he was operating a business and that his business was providing that product or service to his customer(s). It took a few repetitions before he understood.

Which doesn't necessarily mean that he wouldn't have made a go of it just that the mental pot and conceptual pot were completely empty at the outset.

So, my opinion hasn't changed.

[Offsides Guy]

Re: Coronavirus

I have no idea what model of small business behavior people are using when they argue that they should have 2-3 months worth of cash just sitting around unused in operations, because it's not a model that's possible in the real world.

I completely disagree. I'm in the construction field and know of small businesses that both do and don't have such cash savings. I can think of three fellow contractors who went out of business in the last 18 months (all pre-COVID) and all of them did not have such cash on hand. In every case, the reason the savings wasn't there was because the Owner kept taking money out of the business for personnel use such as boats, cars, vacations, etc. Owning a small business isn't that different than managing your own finances. It's all about priorities and goals. The family-owned company I work for keeps 4+ months of cash on hand. The Owners understand construction - like so many small businesses is heavily dependent on cash flow and that even a minor interruption in that can sink the business.

[Still Eeyore]

Re: Coronavirus

I have no idea what model of small business behavior people are using when they argue that they should have 2-3 months worth of cash just sitting around unused in operations, because it's not a model that's possible in the real world.

[Blackbeard]

Re: Coronavirus

We all look to the government to save us, even though it has proven to be ineffective and inefficient at resolving most problems in the past.

This is one of the biggest problems of all. (And if you study the topic long enough you are left with the inescapable conclusion that most problems are caused by government). The vast majority of people believing/thinking/wanting their government to solve their problems. It's easy to pay lip service to freedom but as soon as the boogey man shows up most people run for the perceived cover of their government. (Benjamin Franklin is loudly ringing in my ear). It's why this virus fallout is as large as it is. We have allowed governments to grow way too large to the point that they intrude into virtually every aspect of our lives. And with that growth independence and self reliance are beaten out of the people and replaced with government dependent sheeple.

Here's a thought: What if they held an election and no one voted?

[Blackbeard]

Re: Coronavirus

I've often had the same thought. Give students the opportunity to learn the basics, including

>budgeting
>not spending beyond one's means
>prioritizing needs over wants
>how to be a smart shopper
>the importance of consistently saving some amount, however small, and
>the power of compounding

Kids having parents who don't have a clue (and therefore set a poor example) would have the most to gain from such a class.

Ditto.

I have for decades had these same thoughts (and those expressed by Timothy A., although I would say that you need to start teaching them way before high school) and even expressed them to many people. I'm not sure that they understood what I was going on about or if they even cared. I suspected that they didn't.

I have seen first hand the extremely positive results that instilling the practical skill set that you described into a child starting at a young age can have. And once they have that skill set they don't forget...it becomes systematic. Sort of like riding a bike...a financial bike. It is arguably the most important "gift" you can ever give your kids. It gives them the tools to be able to leave the nest and create life of financial independence. But it needs to be a long term training program with the carrot always out at the end of the stick.

The power of compounding is the eighth wonder of the world and you were perceptive to mention it. (It's partly why the spread of this virus has "surprised" so many people. They don't understand the principle of compounding and what happens when the curve has been completed).

In my experience I would have to say that the majority of parents don't have a financial clue...and as you said...that's what they pass on to their kids through observation learning. Trying to "succeed" financially in life without being well grounded in the knowledge of money, the understanding of what it is, what its primary characteristics and functions are and how to accumulate it...literally, what behaviours and actions are necessary...is like starting out with two strikes against you.

The simplest way to accumulate wealth is to always live within your means...(well within your means, if you can)...spend less than you earn, save the difference and invest that capital wisely. But this takes self discipline and requires postponed need gratification. In this world of constantly being bombarded with get what you want now...buy now pay later...the child is best served by starting their education on this topic very early to get ahead of that negative influence curve.

[shelfit]

I'm gonna go have some avocado toast now.

[robertearle]

Re: Coronavirus

It does get difficult for coaches to take on Fr when there will be a whole other class of 5th year Sr's still on rosters. And if you are a Fr, you may lose a whole season of playing time to the 5th yr Sr, but in the end life is all about how you handle deflected shots and I am very disappointed UW is doing this. To go from thinking you had a second chance to play your Sr year to getting it yanked out from underneath you AGAIN is just a bad sad deal.

In an article in the Madison newspaper, one Badger track senior says the head track coach indicated to her that she would be, will be, welcome back next year, just no longer on scholarship. No indication if that would be the same for the other teams and coaches involved here.

[ARM]

Re: Coronavirus

There is *no doubt* that your core argument is right: having a savings is what protects from stuff like this. Where we differ is on just how much the less fortunate are living outside their means at the expense of saving.

It's not just the less fortunate; you can lump the middle class and and upper-middle class in there, too. Even some of the very rich have paper fortunes, because they carry a mountain of debt.

My wife and I grew up in communities that had been settled not many generations before by immigrants. They came to a new country with what they could carry, and didn't have much time to get established and either earn or grow enough to survive winters that were harsh. If they didn't, outside of perhaps some charitable neighbors, there wasn't anywhere to turn for help. A drought, a flood, a fire, a tornado, a blizzard -- they had to be prepared for such disasters and somehow find a way to survive in spite of them.

Can our current population survive a depression if it lasts a decade like the one less than a century ago? Those people still retained that pioneer spirit. Yes, FDR had social programs that helped, but people as a whole were better at banding together and finding ways to cobble together an existence. Now, at the first sign of trouble, some hoard items that their neighbors need, while others cook up scams to take advantage of the situation. We all look to the government to save us, even though it has proven to be ineffective and inefficient at resolving most problems in the past.

What are we spending our income on instead of saving? Look at all of the smoke shops, tanning salons, coffee shops, tattoo parlors, and cosmetic counters that are all around in any city. If you need gas, you buy $20 in lottery tickets with it, and on Friday night, you go to the casino. People who are scraping to get by need the same electronics that everyone else owns. For centuries, alcohol has contributed to poor people remaining poor, and today's drugs, legal and illegal, add to the problem. Maybe if we are shut in our house for six weeks, we'll learn that we really don't need all the crap that we spend on every day.

I think that D2D makes excellent points. Schools should spend more time teaching basic life skills.

[thirdtime's . . .]

Re: Coronavirus

“Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.”

I’ll spare you all yet another link to the NYT, but this Sunday’s magazine section has a feature titled:

“Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Do We Do It?”

You don’t have to read the discussion to get the drift.

[D2D]

Re: Coronavirus

Oh don't worry I don't think you're doing anything personal at all -- honestly, my wife and I are incredibly lucky, largely because we have the savings you are talking about.

I don't think building savings is due to "incredible luck"! It takes discipline to accomplish what you and your wife have managed to do. Even people who make big salaries can spend beyond their means, live paycheck to paycheck and have no meaningful savings, even though they've had plenty of opportunity.

There is *no doubt* that your core argument is right: having a savings is what protects from stuff like this. Where we differ is on just how much the less fortunate are living outside their means at the expense of saving.

I think each situation is different, and there is no one rule that fits all. But knowledge and motivation each plays a huge role for those growing up in "less fortunate" environments.