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  • Re: Coronavirus

    Originally posted by Offsides Guy View Post
    I have to say, all this doom and gloom about the economy has been embarrassing. This rush to pass stimulus after stimulus package without even waiting to see the results of what's been enacted is ludicrous (and I lean liberal by the way). A "strong" economy should be able to withstand a 60 to 90-day major hit without much issue. If an economy can't, than it wasn't that strong in the first place.

    If there's an economic lesson to be learned in all this, it's that we all have to be much more self-reliant. Imagine how much less economic panic there would be right now if:
    - we had no national deficit?
    - most businesses could go 60 to 90 days covering their basic expenses with cash they've saved?
    - most people could go 60 to 90 days covering their basic expenses with cash they've saved?

    A consumer-based economy is a house of cards if it isn't at least somewhat balanced with savings.
    Originally posted by D2D View Post
    Good post, couldn't agree more with everything you've said. All the government stimulus packages will provide only a temporary boost to the economy, while the tremendous debt we're adding will saddle our young ones indefinitely.

    I saw where nearly a third of renters couldn't even make their April rent, let alone 60-90 days out. Not a good sign.
    You're talking about "The Economy" like it's some intangible batch of numbers and graphs and then simultaneously in the same post mentioning people unable to make rent. "The Economy" is not the Dow. 10 million people went unemployed in the last two weeks, a third of people can't make this month's rent, and people aren't going to be able to pay their mortgages.

    As for this:

    Imagine how much less economic panic there would be right now if ... most people could go 60 to 90 days covering their basic expenses with cash they've saved?
    My guy, seriously, do you really think most people aren't saving money because they're just spending it on avocado toast or something?? 40% of Americans can't cover an unexpected expense of $500 (and that was before all of this *gestures wildly* happened). If you're living paycheck to paycheck good luck saving 3 months of your salary.

    Holy freaking smokes. I love you guys but let's get up to speed here a little bit.
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Senior Writer & Women's Hockey Editor, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    Click here for the BC Interruption Projection, Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

    Comment


    • Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
      You're talking about "The Economy" like it's some intangible batch of numbers and graphs and then simultaneously in the same post mentioning people unable to make rent. "The Economy" is not the Dow. 10 million people went unemployed in the last two weeks, a third of people can't make this month's rent, and people aren't going to be able to pay their mortgages.

      As for this:

      My guy, seriously, do you really think most people aren't saving money because they're just spending it on avocado toast or something?? 40% of Americans can't cover an unexpected expense of $500 (and that was before all of this *gestures wildly* happened). If you're living paycheck to paycheck good luck saving 3 months of your salary.

      Holy freaking smokes. I love you guys but let's get up to speed here a little bit.
      Certainly some may find it impossible to save three months of expenses and should be helped in times of crisis but that number of people should be far less than it is right now. Far too many people in this country prioritize other more optional expenses over saving even some money. And it doesnít mean constantly saving. It means sacrificing for the near term to build up 60-90 days worth of expenses. Whatís happening now might convince some people they can go without a cable TV bill or an unlimited data cell phone plan for a few months as part of a larger effort to build up their emergency savings.

      Comment


      • Re: Coronavirus

        Originally posted by Offsides Guy View Post
        Certainly some may find it impossible to save three months of expenses and should be helped in times of crisis but that number of people should be far less than it is right now. Far too many people in this country prioritize other more optional expenses over saving even some money. And it doesn’t mean constantly saving. It means sacrificing for the near term to build up 60-90 days worth of expenses. What’s happening now might convince some people they can go without a cable TV bill or an unlimited data cell phone plan for a few months as part of a larger effort to build up their emergency savings.
        Sigh
        Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
        Senior Writer & Women's Hockey Editor, BC Interruption
        Twitter: @Salzano14


        Click here for the BC Interruption Projection, Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

        Comment


        • Re: Coronavirus

          Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
          "The Economy" is not the Dow.
          This is an important point. Most people think that the stock market is a proxy for the economy...which it is not.


          Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
          My guy, seriously, do you really think most people aren't saving money because they're just spending it on avocado toast or something?? 40% of Americans can't cover an unexpected expense of $500 (and that was before all of this *gestures wildly* happened). If you're living paycheck to paycheck good luck saving 3 months of your salary.
          While this is true it doesn't negate the points that Offsides Guy was making. Your each talking about opposite sides of the same coin. Any idea how many financial imbeciles were using the annual to the moon price increases in their homes 12-15 years ago as ATM machines and ****ed it all away on cars, furniture, renovations and vacations (depreciating assets, at best) that they could have done without and then were taught an important and brutal financial lesson by life and ended up under water in their mortgages? How many of these people have ever recovered?...How many are in the category that you just described?

          A similar situation is true with many large corporations during the last 10-12 years who have greedily squandered their cash reserves on share buy backs which benefit the shareholders and the compensation/benefits packages of the executives but leaves them empty handed as a business when a calamity such as this comes knocking. And then comes their upturned hat extended toward the government door...looking for handouts...which they get. So, their profits are privatized, meaning that they don't share them with you but their losses...well, that's a different matter. Guess who gets to cough up and make them whole?...You, the taxpayer.

          Great gig isn't it?...spend all your corporate money not to improve the business but only to lubricate the channels through which you can siphon off as much as possible (a parasite/host relationship) and then when there are losses you quickly and happily pass them off onto the public with not as much as a wink of sleep lost. Heads you win...tails the other guys lose.

          So, you were only partially accurate.

          The major cause of all this, among other criminal perpetrators,...The Federal Reserve Bank...which is neither Federal, nor does it have any reserves, nor is it a bank. It's a cartel...The Creature From Jekkyl Island.

          Comment


          • Re: Coronavirus

            Originally posted by Timothy A View Post
            The economy will bounce back very nicely. Yes, some businesses that were barely holding on will be defunct, but others will be busier because of picking up the market share. Other than that, I don't see any over-riding reason why things won't take back off.
            Allow me to share with you some over-riding reasons why things might not take back off.

            And don't forget, Covid-19 didn't cause this. It was just the catalyst that pushed the already terminally ill economy over the edge. The misallocations of capital were not allowed to clear the system in 2008-2009. Businesses that fail should be allowed to finish that process...but they weren't. Politics becomes involved. The systemic dangers are much greater now than they were in 2008. You have a fascist state in the US that has been allowed to grow and fester and the day of reckoning would appear to be here.

            And, as a result, it certainly wouldn't surprise me to find that in October, women's hockey, in whatever form, is not business as usual.

            https://kingworldnews.com/alasdair-m...crack-up-boom/

            https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...small-business

            Comment


            • Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
              You're talking about "The Economy" like it's some intangible batch of numbers and graphs and then simultaneously in the same post mentioning people unable to make rent. "The Economy" is not the Dow. 10 million people went unemployed in the last two weeks, a third of people can't make this month's rent, and people aren't going to be able to pay their mortgages.

              As for this:

              My guy, seriously, do you really think most people aren't saving money because they're just spending it on avocado toast or something?? 40% of Americans can't cover an unexpected expense of $500 (and that was before all of this *gestures wildly* happened). If you're living paycheck to paycheck good luck saving 3 months of your salary.

              Holy freaking smokes. I love you guys but let's get up to speed here a little bit.
              Ooh, I love avocado toast!

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Blackbeard View Post
                Allow me to share with you some over-riding reasons why things might not take back off.

                And don't forget, Covid-19 didn't cause this. It was just the catalyst that pushed the already terminally ill economy over the edge. The misallocations of capital were not allowed to clear the system in 2008-2009. Businesses that fail should be allowed to finish that process...but they weren't. Politics becomes involved. The systemic dangers are much greater now than they were in 2008. You have a fascist state in the US that has been allowed to grow and fester and the day of reckoning would appear to be here.

                And, as a result, it certainly wouldn't surprise me to find that in October, women's hockey, in whatever form, is not business as usual.

                https://kingworldnews.com/alasdair-m...crack-up-boom/

                https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...small-business
                First, you lost me a bit when you said, ď You have a fascist state in the US ...Ē. I canít join you in that opinion. Second, I read the two articles you offered up and, though I donít pretend to be smart enough to have understood everything in them, they did give me pause. The JP Morgan article makes me think the Fed should have put in a rule that banks servicing PPP loans should have to match them dollar for dollar (or something like that ) with other non-PPP SME loans. It seems the guardrail should have been put in to prevent banks from simply chasing the easy margins and leaving small business owners out in the cold.

                Iíll also say I am optimistic that the US economy will absolutely rebound though not necessarily in the next 6 to 12 months. Our economy has seen numerous significant negative events and has always managed to come back. There are always new investors, new companies formed, new revenues generated that will again drive the economy.

                Comment


                • Re: Coronavirus

                  Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                  You're talking about "The Economy" like it's some intangible batch of numbers and graphs and then simultaneously in the same post mentioning people unable to make rent.
                  Those unable to make rent are a consequence of "The Economy" taking a sharp nosedive, caused in large part by our government's reaction to the pandemic (stay at home, much retail closed, etc.) which has led to a sharp reduction in the level of economic activity, and job loss. Many observers believe we are in recession right now, and without government assistance ("stimulus") things like people being unable to make their rent will get worse before they get better. Thousands of people have lost their jobs, and record numbers have filed for unemployment benefits. So it's not at all contradictory to talk about "The Economy" and people unable to make rent - they are inexorably linked.

                  Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                  "The Economy" is not the Dow.
                  Never said it was!
                  Minnesota Golden Gopher Hockey

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by D2D View Post
                    Those unable to make rent are a consequence of "The Economy" taking a sharp nosedive, caused in large part by our government's reaction to the pandemic (stay at home, much retail closed, etc.) which has led to a sharp reduction in the level of economic activity, and job loss. Many observers believe we are in recession right now, and without government assistance ("stimulus") things like people being unable to make their rent will get worse before they get better. Thousands of people have lost their jobs, and record numbers have filed for unemployment benefits. So it's not at all contradictory to talk about "The Economy" and people unable to make rent - they are inexorably linked.
                    No I'm totally in board with this -- I was confused at the idea that we needed to wait and see what the stimulus(/i) would do to the economy before working on the next ones. What I meant was, it's pretty clear there's a problem we need to stay ahead of! Haha

                    They may be temporary boosts, but they are crucial -- my wife is one of the many people who have been or are about to be furloughed, and the fact that we'll have the boosted unemployment to replace all her income is great for us but a lifesaver for the people less fortunate than we are.

                    And the volume of small businesses applying for the SBA Payroll Protection Loans (this has been the only thing I've been dealing with at work the last 2 weeks) is going to be huge for people to not lose their jobs in the long term.
                    Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 04-10-2020, 11:57 PM.
                    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                    Senior Writer & Women's Hockey Editor, BC Interruption
                    Twitter: @Salzano14


                    Click here for the BC Interruption Projection, Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                      No I'm totally in board with this -- I was confused at the idea that we needed to wait and see what the stimulus(/i) would do to the economy before working on the next ones. What I meant was, it's pretty clear there's a problem we need to stay ahead of! Haha

                      They may be temporary boosts, but they are crucial -- my wife is one of the many people who have been or are about to be furloughed, and the fact that we'll have the boosted unemployment to replace all her income is great for us but a lifesaver for the people less fortunate than we are.

                      And the volume of small businesses applying for the SBA Payroll Protection Loans (this has been the only thing I've been dealing with at work the last 2 weeks) is going to be huge for people to not lose their jobs in the long term.
                      Kind of my point. Youíd be less busy at work if those small businesses had, say, 90 days in savings to cover expenses. And, if most of their employees also had 90 days in savings, the businesses wouldnít have to include payroll in their savings to cover their businessesí basic business expenses.

                      Again, I donít want to abandon those in the greatest need at a time like this. My point is simply that a lot more businesses and people should be in a position to withstand 2-3 months without any help at all. That - not the stock market - is what makes for a strong economy.

                      Additionally , though Iím sure it reads like it, I honestly donít mean to cast dispersion on your situation or anyone elseís. Iím saying this is a lesson I hope we learn from this crisis and a change we all try to make moving forward. I know I will be taking some of the money I currently spend on dinners & drinks, for example, and use it to start building up my near-term savings.

                      Lastly, thanks to all for these forum posts on the Womenís Hockey Forum. The different ideas and debates are wonderfully entertaining and distracting while Iím under this stay-at-home order! 😃

                      Comment


                      • Re: Coronavirus

                        Originally posted by Offsides Guy View Post
                        First, you lost me a bit when you said, “ You have a fascist state in the US ...”. I can’t join you in that opinion. Second, I read the two articles you offered up and, though I don’t pretend to be smart enough to have understood everything in them, they did give me pause. The JP Morgan article makes me think the Fed should have put in a rule that banks servicing PPP loans should have to match them dollar for dollar (or something like that ) with other non-PPP SME loans. It seems the guardrail should have been put in to prevent banks from simply chasing the easy margins and leaving small business owners out in the cold.

                        I’ll also say I am optimistic that the US economy will absolutely rebound though not necessarily in the next 6 to 12 months. Our economy has seen numerous significant negative events and has always managed to come back. There are always new investors, new companies formed, new revenues generated that will again drive the economy.
                        Well, it's not really an opinion, it's a fact.

                        Fascism is characterized by a couple of things. One, is an authoritarian police state. Think no further back than the scam that was September 11/01. The "Patriot" Act followed immediately afterwards so quickly that made one marvel at the speed. Well, that was because most of it was already laying in the wings and had been for years waiting to be deployed. Bought with a bill of goods it sold to the American people who bought it hook, line and sinker. Department of Homeland Security. Constant and ever increasing surveillance of Americans' activities...emails, phone calls, text messages. "Constitution? We don't need no stinkin' constitution."

                        The response to the Covid-19 issue is the same..."Constitution, we don't need no stinkin' constitution...we're in charge...not you." Stay home and off the streets and no you don't have a right to assemble (regardless of what the reasons are).

                        Snowden, Assange, Manning...same thing. Do what we say, not what we do. Blatantly despicable criminal activity with the sheeple uttering hardly a bleat.

                        The other main characteristic of a Fascist state is private ownership of the means of production but with state control. Think Facebook, Google, Apple, etc.. as obvious examples. In bed with government to spy on and censure their own customers...sometimes voluntarily, sometimes pressured into doing so by government.

                        As a matter of fact the US government arrogantly attempts to extend that thinking to cover the rest of the planet telling everyone else that they have jurisdiction over the rest of the planet..."and we don't care about your opinions to the contrary."

                        That's just the tip of the iceberg.

                        So, it's not an opinion.

                        I think what some of you guys are missing in your well meant optimism is that you unconsciously assume something that isn't so and that is that you will more or less be able to get by, never mind get ahead, with those pieces of paper that you carry around in your wallets that almost all people have been conditioned to think is money. It never was money. It was never intended to be money.

                        The US was a bankrupt country before Covid-19 provided the much needed nudge to the festering financial system. All this financial recklessness by governments around the planet, but primarily the US government, was given the green light on Aug.15/71 when Nixon closed the gold window. In effect, the US defaulted on its obligations...for a second time.

                        The pieces of paper with pictures of dead presidents on them immediately became "IOU Nothings" because they ceased to be backed by anything of tangible value. They represented nothing. They were, and still are, a receipt for nothing. (The system only functions on the fragile/flimsy faith that someone will accept them from you just as you accepted them from someone else). It's really a Ponzi scheme perpetrated by the government and the Federal Reserve.

                        As such, it freed politicians to begin unlimited reckless and irresponsible monetary practices because there was nothing that the currency was backed by or tied to that would act as a cap on such irresponsibility. (This is why governments and their politicians hate gold and silver because they represent accountability. They are real money...gold, somewhat more so than silver. They are the only money that is not simultaneously someone else's liability. Because there is no debt attached to them. If you own them, you own them, there is no explanation required. Currency is part of a debt/credit system. Gold and silver are not).

                        The US has been living beyond its means for decades by virtue of having the reserve currency of the planet. They got their currency to stick its nose into everyone else's business where it has no business being (just like the rest of its foreign policy) at Bretton Woods and furthered the scam with the Petro dollar scheme in the '70's.

                        As I was discussing with Choker a few years ago (he since seems to have found his way out of the corral and has wandered out into the pasture somewhere, not to be seen or heard from since) the US financial system (and the entire global system) is a house of cards built on quicksand that has been teetering for years. I mentioned at the time that more and more nations are wanting nothing to do with US dollars in their affairs.

                        Any idea why the US "had" to invade Iraq and then later, Libya? That's the reason. The US didn't want any foreign sheep to start jumping over the fence (which both countries were making loud public noises about doing) because you know what happens when one or two make it over the fence...the rest follow.

                        That movement is even further along now and is picking up steam.

                        With the unconscionable amount of currency that the US is "printing" to throw at this Covid-19 problem, (which is just a desperate attempt to prevent the house of cards from collapsing...and consequently, the country), more people and nations are waking up to the concept of the value of such plentiful pieces of paper. When enough people/nations divest themselves of US dollars, in conjunction with this unprecedented, massive creation of new currency units the whole house of cards will come crashing down. Economics 101, as they say...supply and demand.

                        What that really means is that the purchasing power of those currency units will start plummeting towards their intrinsic value...which is zero.

                        Rampant price inflation, and quite possibly a hyper inflation is in the cards for the US (as well as most other nations) but the US standard of living will fall the furthest because they have been living beyond their means for decades via this global arrangement where everyone else has been footing their bill and that charade is in the process of ending. Other nations are not in this position.

                        Bank runs are common in these situations. Bank of America has already started to limit withdrawals and has apparently been harassing customers to not tap out the maximum on their lines of credit. Is this a harbinger of things to come?

                        Ultimately, in the very long run, it's all positive, like having to amputate a limb filled with gangrene in order to save the patient. The poison gets cleaned out of the system, some people who deserve to get lynched maybe do, and the sun starts shining again...eventually. But it is not a stretch to say that that process could take years and maybe even decades.

                        And then the process will start all over again and centuries into the future the same irresponsible mistakes will get made again slowly but surely creating mountains of avoidable problems all over again.

                        This is the repeated and predictable history of money and human stupidity/greed/corruption.

                        So, it is the drastic reduction in the purchasing power of the currency units that you possess that you need to pay attention to and get out in front of...and, as such, there is no objective reason for optimism in the short or medium term or perhaps even longer, especially if you are an American.

                        It's not pretty, millions upon millions will be wiped out, an unimaginable amount of money will go to money heaven...but it is a mathematical certainty.

                        Comment


                        • Re: Coronavirus

                          Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                          You're talking about "The Economy" like it's some intangible batch of numbers and graphs and then simultaneously in the same post mentioning people unable to make rent. "The Economy" is not the Dow. 10 million people went unemployed in the last two weeks, a third of people can't make this month's rent, and people aren't going to be able to pay their mortgages.

                          As for this:

                          My guy, seriously, do you really think most people aren't saving money because they're just spending it on avocado toast or something?? 40% of Americans can't cover an unexpected expense of $500 (and that was before all of this *gestures wildly* happened). If you're living paycheck to paycheck good luck saving 3 months of your salary.

                          Holy freaking smokes. I love you guys but let's get up to speed here a little bit.
                          People need to live within their means. It's impossible not to paint with broad strokes on this but the immediate gratification requirements of many people in country is their downfall. Save money to buy a new tv? No way, plastic baby! OMG the new iPhone 1000 is out! My current phone works just fine, but....plastic baby! Outback Steakhouse has a buy a meal get one half off! We'll get an appetizer and mixed drinks too! Spend a week's worth of grocery money on this meal?! Oh yeah, plastic baby! Those new Nike's are sweet! All my other 14 pairs of shoes are just fine, but plastic baby! I could rent this older place, but I really need a gas stove and all stainless appliances and a giant closet. It's not plastic time, but you get the picture. I could go to a 2 year state college, live at home, get an associate degree, then get the bachelors, but instead I'm going out east to a private college and take 5 years to graduate. Just like that you have mega college debt all because you just had to rush out of the house at 18. Every high school student should be required to take a basic economy class and get at least a B before they can graduate.
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                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Offsides Guy View Post
                            Lastly, thanks to all for these forum posts on the Womenís Hockey Forum. The different ideas and debates are wonderfully entertaining and distracting while Iím under this stay-at-home order! 😃
                            Who knew we were capable of civil discourse here!! Hahaha
                            Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                            Senior Writer & Women's Hockey Editor, BC Interruption
                            Twitter: @Salzano14


                            Click here for the BC Interruption Projection, Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Offsides Guy View Post
                              Additionally , though Iím sure it reads like it, I honestly donít mean to cast dispersion on your situation or anyone elseís. Iím saying this is a lesson I hope we learn from this crisis and a change we all try to make moving forward. I know I will be taking some of the money I currently spend on dinners & drinks, for example, and use it to start building up my near-term savings.
                              Oh don't worry I don't think you're doing anything personal at all -- honestly, my wife and I are incredibly lucky, largely because we have the savings you are talking about.

                              There is *no doubt* that your core argument is right: having a savings is what protects from stuff like this. Where we differ is on just how much the less fortunate are living outside their means at the expense of saving.
                              Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                              Senior Writer & Women's Hockey Editor, BC Interruption
                              Twitter: @Salzano14


                              Click here for the BC Interruption Projection, Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                              Comment


                              • Re: Coronavirus

                                Originally posted by Timothy A View Post
                                Every high school student should be required to take a basic economy class and get at least a B before they can graduate.
                                I've often had the same thought. Give students the opportunity to learn the basics, including

                                >budgeting
                                >not spending beyond one's means
                                >prioritizing needs over wants
                                >how to be a smart shopper
                                >the importance of consistently saving some amount, however small, and
                                >the power of compounding

                                Kids having parents who don't have a clue (and therefore set a poor example) would have the most to gain from such a class.
                                Minnesota Golden Gopher Hockey

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