Predicting who gets in the 2021 NCAA Tournament

[robertearle]

Other than Northeastern the HE is very weak this year. They deserve 1 max but I can see them getting 2.

Again, if you discount wins over LIU and Sacred Heart, the ECAC is Colgate and three teams under .500. They deserve one, max.

So, (and again, unless there are upsets), I see one for ECAC, one for CHA, and then either two and four for HE and WCHA or three and three.

[TonyTheTiger20]

I finally put in the effort to try and do an objective run through of comparing teams from different conferences:

https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...n-wisconsin-bc

There is a A LOT there, probably too much to make it an interesting read, honestly, but I'll try and summarize all my thoughts by copying a bunch of my tweets on the subject from this morning:

First off, the ECAC is the only major conference to have scheduled non-conference games, and they played vs. the NEWHA and CHA. Because the ranking systems can't distinguish between conferences this year, it treats the NEWHA as an average conference, and that gave a HUGE inflated boost to the ECAC's numbers which the other conferences didn't get. Clarkson is 6-9-1 against teams that are not LIU. I respect the fact that they played Colgate 10 times, but Colgate's numbers were inflated too, and so were Quinnipiac's, all of which have a compounding effect on all four teams' numbers.

Now, having said that, the four team "mini-ECAC" on the whole is very good because they aren't dragged down by having terrible teams at the bottom of the standings. But playing the NEWHA and CHA washed that out. In the end, for me, Clarkson is just really not in the discussion right now.

Second off, I am very against the idea of the WCHA getting in four teams, because #EasternBias obviously, but also because *the WCHA has literally never gotten four teams in* since the field expanded to eight 15 yrs ago. HOWEVER, there are also fewer good teams playing this year (No Cornell!). And if you apply historical conference strength to this year's "RPI" (the main subject of the article!), UMD should be in, if only because who else do you put in over them? Certainly not Clarkson. If there's a surprise autobid, though, I feel (subjectively) UMD should be the first team out.

As an aside, there are some people out there who think UMD should be in over the Gophers. The intra-WCHA KRACH & RPI numbers *strongly* do not support this, and Minnesota was 2-0-0 against UMD. Duluth's strength of schedule was comical compared to the others, I'm sorry. Also, don't lose to Bemidji!

Lastly, it seems clear to me that BC is squarely on the bubble, but with a handful of other teams. If no surprises, the bracket should be NU/UW, OSU, and then an absolute mess from 4-7 (BC, Colgate, Minnesota, UMD), then the CHA in 8th regardless of whether PSU wins it. The committee should be able to just focus on seeding a compelling tournament (with no "minimizing flights" to worry about) with the clear top 8 ---- *IF* there are no surprises in the conference tournaments. But if there is even one surprise autobid, the infighting on the committee to determine who is left out is going to be intense.

Anyway, Go NU!

[robertearle]

I finally put in the effort to try and do an objective run through of comparing teams from different conferences:

https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...n-wisconsin-bc

There is a A LOT there, probably too much to make it an interesting read, honestly, but I'll try and summarize all my thoughts by copying a bunch of my tweets on the subject from this morning:

First off, the ECAC is the only major conference to have scheduled non-conference games, and they played vs. the NEWHA and CHA. Because the ranking systems can't distinguish between conferences this year, it treats the NEWHA as an average conference, and that gave a HUGE inflated boost to the ECAC's numbers which the other conferences didn't get. Clarkson is 6-9-1 against teams that are not LIU. I respect the fact that they played Colgate 10 times, but Colgate's numbers were inflated too, and so were Quinnipiac's, all of which have a compounding effect on all four teams' numbers.

Now, having said that, the four team "mini-ECAC" on the whole is very good because they aren't dragged down by having terrible teams at the bottom of the standings. But playing the NEWHA and CHA washed that out. In the end, for me, Clarkson is just really not in the discussion right now.

Second off, I am very against the idea of the WCHA getting in four teams, because #EasternBias obviously, but also because *the WCHA has literally never gotten four teams in* since the field expanded to eight 15 yrs ago. HOWEVER, there are also fewer good teams playing this year (No Cornell!). And if you apply historical conference strength to this year's "RPI" (the main subject of the article!), UMD should be in, if only because who else do you put in over them? Certainly not Clarkson. If there's a surprise autobid, though, I feel (subjectively) UMD should be the first team out.

As an aside, there are some people out there who think UMD should be in over the Gophers. The intra-WCHA KRACH & RPI numbers *strongly* do not support this, and Minnesota was 2-0-0 against UMD. Duluth's strength of schedule was comical compared to the others, I'm sorry. Also, don't lose to Bemidji!

Lastly, it seems clear to me that BC is squarely on the bubble, but with a handful of other teams. If no surprises, the bracket should be NU/UW, OSU, and then an absolute mess from 4-7 (BC, Colgate, Minnesota, UMD), then the CHA in 8th regardless of whether PSU wins it. The committee should be able to just focus on seeding a compelling tournament (with no "minimizing flights" to worry about) with the clear top 8 ---- *IF* there are no surprises in the conference tournaments. But if there is even one surprise autobid, the infighting on the committee to determine who is left out is going to be intense.

Anyway, Go NU!

Thanks for the work, and the post, and largely quantifying what my gut has been telling me. :-)

The one 'quibble' is with Penn State and the CHA. With the jumble at 4-through-7, if somebody pulls the upset of Penn State, I'd be inclined so say 'screw it' and give the CHA two slots. In this year's weird context, I just can't see leaving a 16 or 17 win, 3 loss team out.

[TonyTheTiger20]

The one 'quibble' is with Penn State and the CHA. With the jumble at 4-through-7, if somebody pulls the upset of Penn State, I'd be inclined so say 'screw it' and give the CHA two slots. In this year's weird context, I just can't see leaving a 16 or 17 win, 3 loss team out.

I mean there's a case to be made for the "screw it" method hahaha -- one thing I mentioned in an article about the men's tournament is that if you are on the bubble this year, you wouldn't have made it in a normal year with everyone playing, and there's always the "you should have just won your conference tournament" argument.

[Timothy A]

Quick wwcha stats...UM UW OSU UMD records against each other:

UW 8-3-1
OSU 7-5
UM 4-7-1
UMD 2-4

Does UMD deserve to get in based on 2 quality wins and only 6 games against quality opponents? I'm thinking not. UM only has 4 quality wins and a tie but has 12 games against quality opponents. They are in.

[TonyTheTiger20]

UM only has 4 quality wins and a tie but has 12 games against quality opponents. They are in.

Plus 2-0-0 against Duluth. I truly do not get the argument some people have made that UMD should be in over Minnesota. UM over UMD is like the one thing I'm sure about haha

The question with Duluth is who do you put in over them? Surely not Clarkson and surely not Providence. UMD is in for me if only on the basis of there being a pretty big drop off after the top 8.

[robertearle]

Quick wwcha stats...UM UW OSU UMD records against each other:

UW 8-3-1
OSU 7-5
UM 4-7-1
UMD 2-4

Does UMD deserve to get in based on 2 quality wins and only 6 games against quality opponents? I'm thinking not. UM only has 4 quality wins and a tie but has 12 games against quality opponents. They are in.

The 'problem' (as always, assuming no upsets) is that it is easy to name six teams, and really hard to name the last two. UW, OSU, NE, Colgate, Penn State, Minnesota. Then who? Is Duluth any less deserving than BC, or Providence or Clarkson, or...

I'd say Duluth is likely one of "the other two". But it is such a weird year to try to figure these things...

[Offsides Guy]

Plus 2-0-0 against Duluth. I truly do not get the argument some people have made that UMD should be in over Minnesota. UM over UMD is like the one thing I'm sure about haha

The question with Duluth is who do you put in over them?

I agree re UMD but I also can’t answer your question. I just don’t think they get in.

[robertearle]

I agree re UMD but I also can’t answer your question. I just don’t think they get in.

Should we all hope for an upset or two? :-)

[Offsides Guy]

Should we all hope for an upset or two? :-)

Yes!

[zoofer]

While I’ve not seen any games outside of Hockey East, I have to agree with only Northeastern deserves to move on....BC was horrendous in losing to UConn! If the Huskies don’t measure up, than BC surely can’t....Providi can be competitive if a second HE team is needed....aside from the homer announcers for Northeastern, that don’t know hockey but think the Huskies gold,
listening to you gents, the finals should be Northeastern vs Wisconsin? (Maybe Ohio St.) Any chance of a goaltender stealing the trophy? Enjoying what has been a weird season.....
BTW, kudos to LIU Sharks for back to back championships!! Looking forward to their intro to the NCAA’s next year....

[zoofer]

Just an FYI, I was edited above....let’s just say, I’m NOT a fan of announcers that continually tells you how great their team is for 60 minutes!! You all can imagine what came between Huskies......gold! ♂️

[ARM]

... the finals should be Northeastern vs Wisconsin? (Maybe Ohio St.) Any chance of a goaltender stealing the trophy?

If Northeastern is on the opposite side of the bracket from Wisconsin and Ohio State, then its chances of getting to the final increase. Other than that, the Huskies will have to overcome what dominant teams in Hockey East have always battled -- at some point, in the semi if not before, they will play a team that is markedly better than what they've seen so far this year.

NU's most-talented opponent so far is likely BC, but that was opening weekend for the Huskies. You want to come out of your conference feeling confident, but not get the feeling that there is this big gap between you and everyone else. Then you get to the NCAA Tournament and play teams that can skate with you, you're behind after 20 minutes, and you never get comfortable. Hockey East teams have performed better historically in NCAAs if they've come out of a battle for the league. UNH in 2008 or BC in 2016 would have been better served if somebody in HEA had been equipped to push them around a little.

What the Huskies have over most HEA powers in years gone by is the top goaltender in the country at this point. If Northeastern gets on its heels for a bit, Frankel gives them a better chance to survive and regroup.

[zoofer]

As always ARM, I agree with every point you make! Even to the point where before I read your comments on Frankel, I was beginning to formulate just such an argument!
Not since Schelling has Northeastern had the goaltending it does now....not just stats but the confidence for the defense to be that much looser in taking chances....possibly not in the playoffs though! Plus, I might give Coach Flint the benefit of the doubt here and hope he’s as aware of past HE performances at the NCAA’s as we are!
When UNH lost to UMD, it was 2 pp goals to one, with one hellacious tip-in from a shot 4 feet wide...(other than my remembrance of Wisconsin beating us in ‘77’, I don’t hold grudges!)

[robertearle]

So after six games on Thursday and Friday, did *anything* get sorted out?

:-)