2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

[wwhyte]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Clarkson being ranked at #4. Even though they lost 5-0 to Quinnipiac... well, I surrender. (If you read my posts below, you'll see my problem with Clarkson)

Right, but overall Clarkson have the same record as Quinni and a slightly better OPWP. Over the season as a whole they've been better; looking forward I would fancy Clarkson to do better at the end of the season than Quinni given Quinni's track record; Quinni look stronger over the recent past. Close call.

[ne7minder]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

As of now, barring what occurs between Wisconsin and Minnesota this weekend, I think 1 and 2 (in whatever order you put them) are the best two teams and there is a bit of separation above Minnesota with them. Minnesota has shown some small cracks in the foundation (penalty kill and goaltending) and we will see if those become bigger issues against Wisconsin or if they can overcome those issues.

Given that BC as to face the oh so formidable Maine this weekend my guess is you will have an excuse come Monday for you opinion. If they split that just 'proves' unbeaten BC is better, If Wisconsin sweeps well, MN is weak and if MN sweeps Wisc is over rated.

[Eeyore]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

You are correct about ND splitting with Syracuse.
Re Clarkson: I believe that roughly 10 of those 14 wins are against teams with a losing record.

This is not correct. When you do this, you really need to subtract the games Clarkson played against them to determine whether a team has a winning or losing record for the purposes of determining Clarkson's strength of schedule, but even without that adjustment, this is wrong. Clarkson has:

1) Two wins over 9-7-1 St. Lawrence (9-5-1 in other games);
2) Two wins over 11-7-0 BU (11-5-0 in other games);
3) Two wins over 7-9-1 Syracuse (7-7-1 in other games);
4) Two wins over 7-7-2 Connecticut (7-5-2 in other games);
5) One win over 7-4-1 Princeton (7-3-1 in other games).

The only wins that are unarguably against teams with losing records are the five against UNH, Union, and Vermont.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Week X Posters Poll

Rank Votes  Team (1st place votes)  Range (Mode)  Last week (change)
  1.   119  Wisconsin (11)          1-2   (1)     1
  2.   104  Minnesota               2-3   (2)     2 
  3.   101  Boston College (1)      1-3   (3)     3 
  4.    81  Quinnipiac              4-5   (4)     4  
  5.    71  Bemidji State           4-6   (5)     6 (+1)
  6.    56  Harvard                 5-8   (6)     7 (+1)
  7.    50  Clarkson                4-10  (7)     8 (+1)
  8.    40  Northeastern            7-8   (8)     5 (-3)
  9.    18  Minnesota-Duluth        8-NR  (9)     ARV (+2)
 10.    16  North Dakota            9-NR  (10)    9 (-1) 
 
Also Receiving Votes:
         2  Colgate                 9-NR  (9)     ARV
         1  Boston University       10-NR (10)    10 (-1)
         1  Princeton               10-NR (10)    ARV
             
Dropped Out:
            Dartmouth
            St. Lawrence

Week X chart: http://i.imgur.com/R4vomF8.jpg

[PuckRush]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

This is not correct. When you do this, you really need to subtract the games Clarkson played against them to determine whether a team has a winning or losing record for the purposes of determining Clarkson's strength of schedule, but even without that adjustment, this is wrong. Clarkson has:

1) Two wins over 9-7-1 St. Lawrence (9-5-1 in other games);
2) Two wins over 11-7-0 BU (11-5-0 in other games);
3) Two wins over 7-9-1 Syracuse (7-7-1 in other games);
4) Two wins over 7-7-2 Connecticut (7-5-2 in other games);
5) One win over 7-4-1 Princeton (7-3-1 in other games).

The only wins that are unarguably against teams with losing records are the five against UNH, Union, and Vermont.

Good work and thank you. I stand corrected and sorry for my sloppy math (I just scanned their schedule and guessed who had losing record).

How's this? Based on your data, and not subtracting losses to Clarkson, of their 14 wins, 9 are against teams with .500 winning percentage or less. And of their 2 losses, one is to a team with a losing record. I just don't think that's enough to put them ahead of QU, Harvard, Bemidji, or Northeastern. If I'm right, that puts them at #8 best case.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

For what it's worth I have no problem with your reasoning. Seems pretty thoughtfully put together.

I'm curious what people think of Wisconsin to have them above BC despite the HUGE strength of schedule disparity. Keep in mind I also have Wisco above BC but I'm curious what people think.

[FiveHoleFrenzy]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Given that BC as to face the oh so formidable Maine this weekend my guess is you will have an excuse come Monday for you opinion. If they split that just 'proves' unbeaten BC is better, If Wisconsin sweeps well, MN is weak and if MN sweeps Wisc is over rated.

In anticipation of Monday here are some excuse templates I could roll with...

(Fill in the blank) didn't bring their A game or conversely, (fill in the blank) brought their A game.
(Fill in the blank) crushed (fill in the blank) while (fill in the blank) struggled against (fill in the blank)
(Fill in the blank) looked disinterested.
The puck wasn't bouncing (fill in the blank's) way or conversely, the puck was bouncing (fill in the blank's) way.
(Fill in the blank) couldn't stop a beachball.
(Fill in the blank) worked hard but got nothing to show for it because (fill in the blank) played lights out.

[Eeyore]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

I'm curious what people think of Wisconsin to have them above BC despite the HUGE strength of schedule disparity. Keep in mind I also have Wisco above BC but I'm curious what people think.

I think the yooooge strength of schedule disparity is a fiction created by the inadequacy of RPI. KRACH shows Wisconsin as having the stronger SoS, and while this may involve quirks in KRACH, I think it's closer to the truth than RPI.

[ne7minder]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

In anticipation of Monday here are my some template excuses I could roll with...

(Fill in the blank) didn't bring their A game or conversely, (fill in the blank) brought their A game.
(Fill in the blank) crushed (fill in the blank) while (fill in the blank) struggled against (fill in the blank)
(Fill in the blank) looked disinterested.
The puck wasn't bouncing (fill in the blank's) way or conversely, the puck was bouncing (fill in the blank's) way.
(Fill in the blank) couldn't stop a beachball.
(fill in the blank) worked hard but got nothing to show for it because (fill in the blank) played lights out.

All excellent! Much of this list reminds me of the thing from "Bull Durum" where the catcher is giving the pitcher bland nothings to use when he is interviewed.

[ne7minder]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

I think the yooooge strength of schedule disparity is a fiction created by the inadequacy of RPI. KRACH shows Wisconsin as having the stronger SoS, and while this may involve quirks in KRACH, I think it's closer to the truth than RPI.

I don't play along so this is just a guess: History says that a WCHA team is superior to a comparable Eastern team. Obviously that is not 100% but given the number of championships won and the lack of common opponents the default would be to rate an unbeaten WCHA team above an unbeaten HE team. I have no opinion if that is anyones reason but I could see that as an argument. I also have no idea if that is right or 'fair' but can see it as not unreasonable.

[vicb]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

In anticipation of Monday here are some excuse templates I could roll with...

(Fill in the blank) didn't bring their A game or conversely, (fill in the blank) brought their A game.
(Fill in the blank) crushed (fill in the blank) while (fill in the blank) struggled against (fill in the blank)
(Fill in the blank) looked disinterested.
The puck wasn't bouncing (fill in the blank's) way or conversely, the puck was bouncing (fill in the blank's) way.
(Fill in the blank) couldn't stop a beachball.
(Fill in the blank) worked hard but got nothing to show for it because (fill in the blank) played lights out.

I would add the following:

(Fill in the blank) dominated time of posession and shots and still ended up tieing or losing to (fill in the blank).
Hint: Clarkson and Hint: RPI, Dartmouth, Harvard, Colgate .

[PuckRush]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Couple of thoughts after the weekend (and before ND v Bemidji):

1. Sure seems like I'm putting Minn at #3 (who woooda thunk?).
2. I love this BSU v ND v MD competition for #3 in the WCHA. Seems like any given Sunday, right? (can't wait until the day every conference has this kind of depth)
3. Speaking of BSU v ND v MD... we're going to have to make sense of this mess. Can't wait to see what everyone does.
4. After many posts criticizing Clarkson's high ranking, I'm now going to defend them. I'm sure most will drop them down, but ff you're instinct is to move them out of top 10, at least compare their results to whoever you are thinking of slotting at 10. There's not a lot to choose from and have yet to find a team I'd replace them with.
5. Huge congrats to Wisconsin and Quinnipiac players, coaches and fans for getting their respective monkey off their backs.

[PuckRush]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

By the way, this past week's USA Today's poll and our own USCHO Pollster's poll looks better than USCHO poll from what we know now.

[TonyTheTiger20]

By the way, this past week's USA Today's poll and our own USCHO Pollster's poll looks better than USCHO poll from what we know now.

I've been a fan of the poster's poll more than the USCHO poll. Part of that might just be being able to see how everyone voted, though.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Also my thoughts are that there seems to be a very distinct top 4 now in a very distinct order.