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RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

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  • Ralph Baer
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    I haven't checked the RPI directory recently but this has appeared:

    Name: Josefine Lund Hansen
    Class:
    Curriculum: Biology
    A second:

    Name: Makenna Nicole Thomas
    Class: First-Year Student
    Curriculum: Business and Management

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    Originally posted by shelfit View Post
    Just to restate RPI's playoff hopes. It's just not going to happen. Sorry if that sounds negative but reality is reality.
    Right now, we're entirely capable of making the playoffs. If we lose one of the games I mentioned, then we have to start taking down the big guys (Clarkson, SLU, Cornell). If we win the games we should and lose the games we shouldn't, it pretty much entirely comes down to the Yale game.

    For this weekend coming up, any points we earned would be bonus. I'll admit that I'm not particularly optimistic about taking points in the North Country (especially against CCT), but if we could pull a tie or even shock one of them with a win, it would be a huge boon for our chances.

    Leave a comment:


  • shelfit
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    Originally posted by hab View Post
    Fortunately, these things get decided by a team of athletes on the ice, not by you. They have a huge challenge ahead, but I'm behind them, and you're not.
    You are correct, and so am I.

    Leave a comment:


  • hab
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    Originally posted by shelfit View Post
    Just to restate RPI's playoff hopes. It's just not going to happen. Sorry if that sounds negative but reality is reality.
    Fortunately, these things get decided by a team of athletes on the ice, not by you. They have a huge challenge ahead, but I'm behind them, and you're not.

    Leave a comment:


  • shelfit
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    Originally posted by shelfit View Post
    I just don't see it happening. Sorry.
    Just to restate RPI's playoff hopes. It's just not going to happen. Sorry if that sounds negative but reality is reality.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    Back to no point weekends. Not good. We have to be able to steal points from teams like Dartmouth if we want to get into 8th.

    RPI KRACH (RRWP): 22.64 (.2417)

    MCTs (Mean/Median/Mode/Range):
    Points - 11.96 / 12 / 12 / 4 - 25
    Rank - 9.56 / 9 / 9 / 5 - 12
    Playoffs - 2.7%
    Most likely opponent - Harvard (1.5%)

    Conference rankings:
    1. Harvard
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Clarkson
    4. Cornell
      —————
    5. SLU
    6. Princeton
    7. Dartmouth
    8. Yale
      —————
      —————
    9. RPI
    10. Union
    11. Colgate
    12. Brown


    We're projected to earn about 7 points less than Yale, so we need to start winning a few games against teams ranked above us. Just picking up the 10 points against Union, Colgate, and Brown won't be enough pass Yale (assuming they also win all remaining games against those teams). RPI does play Yale one more time (in New Haven, Feb. 13), so we need to give ourselves a chance for that game to mean something, and then win it.

    EDIT: I just reran the simulation with us having won the five games against Union/Colgate/Brown, our chance of making the playoffs only jumps to 24.4%. So yeah, we have to steal some points. Winning those five AND the Yale game puts us at almost a 70% chance to finish in the top 8. We're by no means out of this, but we have to win games.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 01-11-2015, 05:37 PM.

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  • Ralph Baer
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    Originally posted by hab View Post
    I didn't see this announcement back in November, but it looks like the Engineers will be bringing in another SSM grad next year: Taylor Schwalbe, from Anchorage Alaska, forward, shoots left. http://ssmhockey.org/news/seven-hock...ers-of-intent/
    It is very hard to keep up with women recruits. This SSM preview from 9/24 already states that she committed to RPI.
    “A lot of our juniors are high-caliber players,” said Schwalbe, who’s committed to play at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) next year. “We have a lot of juniors stepping up in big roles.”

    Leave a comment:


  • hab
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    Originally posted by hab View Post
    RPI plays their biggest game of the year this Friday against Dartmouth. Over the 8 seasons that the ECAC has been a 12-team conference, the eighth place team has usually come in with about 17 points (mean 17.6, median 17.5) and the ninth place team has been about 15 (mean 15.6, median 15). So I figure that RPI needs to pick up about 11-14 points in their remaining 14 games. Lets assume that they win all of their remaining games against teams below them (Colgate, Brown, Union). That would get them 10 of the those points but none of those games will be easy, so lets assume that if they get hot they pick up 8 of those points. That means that they still need 2 or 3 wins against middle of the pack teams. If they can start with a win against Dartmouth on Friday there is hope. If they can't, there is only prayer.
    Here I go quoting myself again. We dropped the Dartmouth game so I guess that puts us into prayer territory ...but I'm a true believer . The only saving grace is that Yale dropped both of their games, so we are still only 4 points out of the playoffs. I thought we looked okay against Dartmouth. We were totally outclassed by Harvard in the first period (shots 16-1 and score 3-0) so I stopped watching. Looking at the stats, it looks like the team put in a strong effort in the final 2 periods, so that's a good sign.

    Leave a comment:


  • hab
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    RPI plays their biggest game of the year this Friday against Dartmouth. Over the 8 seasons that the ECAC has been a 12-team conference, the eighth place team has usually come in with about 17 points (mean 17.6, median 17.5) and the ninth place team has been about 15 (mean 15.6, median 15). So I figure that RPI needs to pick up about 11-14 points in their remaining 14 games. Lets assume that they win all of their remaining games against teams below them (Colgate, Brown, Union). That would get them 10 of the those points but none of those games will be easy, so lets assume that if they get hot they pick up 8 of those points. That means that they still need 2 or 3 wins against middle of the pack teams. If they can start with a win against Dartmouth on Friday there is hope. If they can't, there is only prayer.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    Originally posted by shelfit View Post
    Hey they have a chance to go 4-3 over their last 7 games if they can beat Providence today. They better hope for the W because they're likely to lose their next 4 games straight.
    Eh, As much as it would be good from a moral standpoint to win this one, it doesn't matter at all. It's not like we're going to grab an at-large spot. As for the next four ECAC battles, Dartmouth is probably the most winnable, and one we'll want to win if we're to fight into the top 8.

    Leave a comment:


  • shelfit
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    Hey they have a chance to go 4-3 over their last 7 games if they can beat Providence today. They better hope for the W because they're likely to lose their next 4 games straight.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ralph Baer
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
    Yes, but in the million simulations, we never got more than 26 points.
    I understand now.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    '
    We are currently 2-6. We have 14 games left. Isn't the theoretical maximum number of points 32?
    Yes, but in the million simulations, we never got more than 26 points.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ralph Baer
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
    MCTs (Mean/Median/Mode/Range):
    Points - 13.09 / 13 / 13 / 4 - 26
    '
    We are currently 2-6. We have 14 games left. Isn't the theoretical maximum number of points 32?

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

    We won another game! Plan the parade!

    RPI KRACH (RRWP): 25.28 (.2599)

    MCTs (Mean/Median/Mode/Range):
    Points - 13.09 / 13 / 13 / 4 - 26
    Rank - 9.43 / 9 / 9 / 4 - 12
    Playoffs - 4.4%
    Most likely opponent - Harvard (2.4%)

    Conference rankings:
    1. Harvard
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Clarkson
    4. Cornell
      —————
    5. SLU
    6. Princeton
    7. Dartmouth
    8. Yale
      —————
      —————
    9. RPI
    10. Union
    11. Colgate
    12. Brown

    Leave a comment:

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