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2024 Bracketology - The Road to Connecticut

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  • 2024 Bracketology - The Road to Connecticut

    It's funny, I had a bracketology done this week and was going to post, and then Plattsburgh and Adrian lost and it through the whole thing into a mess

    Anyways, first bracketology of the season coming after tomorrow night when most of the pre-Christmas games are done

  • #2
    Originally posted by Pioneer247 View Post
    It's funny, I had a bracketology done this week and was going to post, and then Plattsburgh and Adrian lost and it through the whole thing into a mess

    Anyways, first bracketology of the season coming after tomorrow night when most of the pre-Christmas games are done
    I know it's all fun and games but literally most of the NESCAC has played 7 games so far...still so much left to decide.

    But it's just a silly fan forum and can obviously do whatever. The Pairwise still has so much data to come, especially in early January with a lot more non-conference games to come.
    The Poster Formerly Known as Purple_and_Gold10©
    "The Prezidential Three - Elmira, Oswego, Norwich" © Joecct
    GO EAGLES!!! R.I.P. L.H. #4 In our hearts forever
    GO LAKERS!!!
    GO CADETS!!! R.I.P. Charlie Crosby '63
    "Reisweber trying to circle in front of the net, he does, HE SCORES! that's it! Oswego State has done it!! The Lakers take home the first NCAA title of any kind in school history. It's celebration time in Upstate New York!"
    Oswego State '09

    Comment


    • #3
      The first bracketology for 2024 is done, and this is one of the more interesting ones I've had to put together. As a note if you're new, while in-season, the auto-bid for each conference in this goes to the team with the highest conference points percentage, they may not necessarily be the leader in points at the moment. Also in the case of conference ties in which H2H can't break them, like the NCHA currently, the auto-bid goes to the team with the highest PairWise of the tie

      Without further ado, the autobids and at-larges as they currently stand:

      CCC: Salve Regina (17)
      MASCAC: Plymouth State (24)
      MIAC: St. Scholastica (1)
      NCHA: Adrian (9)
      NEHC: Skidmore (6)
      NESCAC: Trinity (20)
      SUNYAC: Geneseo (5)
      UCHC: Utica (7)
      WIAC: Stevens Point (11)

      At-Large:
      Elmira (T-2)
      Hobart (T-2)
      Cortland (4)

      First Four Out:
      Bethel (8)
      Norwich (10)
      Plattsburgh (12)
      Wilkes (13)

      This grouping of teams to get in is very interesting as a whole. You have 3 teams in the East that can all play Adrian in the 1st round (500 mile rule still in play), so you'd think that'd help someone out, but if you're an Elmira or a Hobart, this means you end up losing your bye, and only one of Elmira/Hobart/Geneseo/Adrian is going to Hartford.

      Round 1 would look like this:

      Adrian @ Elmira
      Geneseo @ Hobart
      Plymouth State @ Utica
      Trinity @ Salve Regina

      And then your quarterfinals, which would be set up with G1 playing G4 and G2 playing G3 in the Semifinals

      G1: Stevens Point @ St. Scholastica
      G2: Geneseo/Hobart @ Adrian/Elmira
      G3: Trinity/Salve Regina @ Cortland
      G4: Plymouth State/Utica @ Skidmore


      I know we obviously have a ton of games to go and this will change 50 times before the real bracket comes out in March, but looking at the teams on the bubble and the way things are looking now, I think we're going to have a great tournament on our hands here




      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Pioneer247 View Post
        The first bracketology for 2024 is done, and this is one of the more interesting ones I've had to put together. As a note if you're new, while in-season, the auto-bid for each conference in this goes to the team with the highest conference points percentage, they may not necessarily be the leader in points at the moment. Also in the case of conference ties in which H2H can't break them, like the NCHA currently, the auto-bid goes to the team with the highest PairWise of the tie

        Without further ado, the autobids and at-larges as they currently stand:

        CCC: Salve Regina (17)
        MASCAC: Plymouth State (24)
        MIAC: St. Scholastica (1)
        NCHA: Adrian (9)
        NEHC: Skidmore (6)
        NESCAC: Trinity (20)
        SUNYAC: Geneseo (5)
        UCHC: Utica (7)
        WIAC: Stevens Point (11)

        At-Large:
        Elmira (T-2)
        Hobart (T-2)
        Cortland (4)

        First Four Out:
        Bethel (8)
        Norwich (10)
        Plattsburgh (12)
        Wilkes (13)

        This grouping of teams to get in is very interesting as a whole. You have 3 teams in the East that can all play Adrian in the 1st round (500 mile rule still in play), so you'd think that'd help someone out, but if you're an Elmira or a Hobart, this means you end up losing your bye, and only one of Elmira/Hobart/Geneseo/Adrian is going to Hartford.

        Round 1 would look like this:

        Adrian @ Elmira
        Geneseo @ Hobart
        Plymouth State @ Utica
        Trinity @ Salve Regina

        And then your quarterfinals, which would be set up with G1 playing G4 and G2 playing G3 in the Semifinals

        G1: Stevens Point @ St. Scholastica
        G2: Geneseo/Hobart @ Adrian/Elmira
        G3: Trinity/Salve Regina @ Cortland
        G4: Plymouth State/Utica @ Skidmore


        I know we obviously have a ton of games to go and this will change 50 times before the real bracket comes out in March, but looking at the teams on the bubble and the way things are looking now, I think we're going to have a great tournament on our hands here



        Couldn't they realistically do something like this?

        Quarterfinals:
        G1: Stevens Point @ St. Scholastica
        G2: Adrian/Geneseo @ Hobart
        G3: Salve Regina/Utica @ Elmira
        G4: Trinity/Cortland @ Plymouth State/Skidmore

        I feel like this is more likely to give the byes to Elmira and Hobart, rather than Skidmore and Cortland. What do you think?
        Last edited by VTpucksouteast; 12-12-2023, 08:36 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Pioneer247 View Post
          The first bracketology for 2024 is done, and this is one of the more interesting ones I've had to put together. As a note if you're new, while in-season, the auto-bid for each conference in this goes to the team with the highest conference points percentage, they may not necessarily be the leader in points at the moment. Also in the case of conference ties in which H2H can't break them, like the NCHA currently, the auto-bid goes to the team with the highest PairWise of the tie

          Without further ado, the autobids and at-larges as they currently stand:

          CCC: Salve Regina (17)
          MASCAC: Plymouth State (24)
          MIAC: St. Scholastica (1)
          NCHA: Adrian (9)
          NEHC: Skidmore (6)
          NESCAC: Trinity (20)
          SUNYAC: Geneseo (5)
          UCHC: Utica (7)
          WIAC: Stevens Point (11)

          At-Large:
          Elmira (T-2)
          Hobart (T-2)
          Cortland (4)

          First Four Out:
          Bethel (8)
          Norwich (10)
          Plattsburgh (12)
          Wilkes (13)

          This grouping of teams to get in is very interesting as a whole. You have 3 teams in the East that can all play Adrian in the 1st round (500 mile rule still in play), so you'd think that'd help someone out, but if you're an Elmira or a Hobart, this means you end up losing your bye, and only one of Elmira/Hobart/Geneseo/Adrian is going to Hartford.

          Round 1 would look like this:

          Adrian @ Elmira
          Geneseo @ Hobart
          Plymouth State @ Utica
          Trinity @ Salve Regina

          And then your quarterfinals, which would be set up with G1 playing G4 and G2 playing G3 in the Semifinals

          G1: Stevens Point @ St. Scholastica
          G2: Geneseo/Hobart @ Adrian/Elmira
          G3: Trinity/Salve Regina @ Cortland
          G4: Plymouth State/Utica @ Skidmore


          I know we obviously have a ton of games to go and this will change 50 times before the real bracket comes out in March, but looking at the teams on the bubble and the way things are looking now, I think we're going to have a great tournament on our hands here



          These are a lot of fun to follow! they are also a bit of work so thank you for putting them together!

          Comment


          • #6
            Oswego got robbed!

            (wink wink grin grin)
            Last edited by ColdInRomney; 12-13-2023, 11:28 AM.
            Oswego State 1980 Grad
            (attended in one way or another from 1968-1988, don't ask..... )

            Comment


            • #7
              Robbed by whom? Themselves.
              The Titanic only had one Captain..........
              "You're holding your mouth wrong." Jim Cole
              "Don't take any wooden nickels." Ray Rouse
              9 Time World Champion Boston Red Sox ('03,'12,'15,'16,'18,2004, '07, '13, '18)

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by VTpucksouteast View Post

                Couldn't they realistically do something like this?

                Quarterfinals:
                G1: Stevens Point @ St. Scholastica
                G2: Adrian/Geneseo @ Hobart
                G3: Salve Regina/Utica @ Elmira
                G4: Trinity/Cortland @ Plymouth State/Skidmore

                I feel like this is more likely to give the byes to Elmira and Hobart, rather than Skidmore and Cortland. What do you think?
                This makes more sense to me, but who knows with a selection committee lol. When geography IS NOT an issue, I feel like they wouldn't put the (technically) 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th seeds in a round-robin where one gets to Hartford. Not when they could make that round robin the (technically) 5th, 6th, 11th, and 12th seeded teams.

                Yes, Adrian's geography is an issue, but lots of teams can play Elmira/Hobart/Genny. I can see them giving one of those three a bye.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I agree
                  The Titanic only had one Captain..........
                  "You're holding your mouth wrong." Jim Cole
                  "Don't take any wooden nickels." Ray Rouse
                  9 Time World Champion Boston Red Sox ('03,'12,'15,'16,'18,2004, '07, '13, '18)

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Not sure where to post this, so I thought this might be the best option. Over on the DIII women's forum, I posted some rankings of conference thus far as we have hit the Christmas break to see who lines up where. I had read on a previous post that in terms of hockey, a pretty good (not necessarily perfect) way to measure conference strength was to look at the median RPI ranking of all a conference's teams and line up accordingly. I ran the numbers on the women's side, so I decided to take a shot at the men's. Just thought this was some interesting data.

                    Conference (Median RPI rank)

                    1. MIAC (33)
                    T-2. NEHC (36.5)
                    T-2. WIAC (36.5)
                    T-2. CCC (36.5)
                    5. NCHA (41)
                    6. Independents (42)
                    7. SUNYAC (50)
                    8. MASCAC (50.5)
                    9. NESCAC (53)
                    10. UCHC (54)

                    Definitely pretty eye-opening. When watching the games, you obviously would rather fear a SUNYAC schedule over an independent one, but I do like how this takes into account ALL games that teams play. Also, with just four independents, strong starts from Albertus and Anna Maria weigh heavily in that calculation.

                    MIAC on top isn't too terribly surprising given the perennial top-to-bottom quality depth of that league. Despite the bottom dwellers, I am surprised at how low the SUNYAC is ranked. Also, despite the CCC being "down" from last year, that's a super strong league with almost no "Gimmies." NEHC and WIAC being ranked high makes some common sense to most people. I can't say that seeing the UCHC at the bottom was shocking either. It'll be interesting to see how this evolves as the season goes on!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Itll be interesting to see if the UCHC can even survive the next few years. Its a 6 team conference next year and all it takes is a Utica move to D1 a Naz/Manhattenville move to the NEHC, or a chatham move to the MAC and all of sudden this conference lost its autobid. Then again if they can somehow convince two out of the 3 ny NEHC teams (Hobart,Elmira,Skidmore) to join the UCHC u could argue thats the best conference in the county with Hobart, and Elmira saving a lot of money on travel. Skidmore probably wouldnt save as much as the other 2 I would admit.
                      Oswego 22' and 23' Student Section Leader 2022-2024. If you heard a weird or offensive chant during an Oswego Hockey Broadcast during that time... odds are my friend Tim and I started it.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Lord_Zubin View Post
                        Itll be interesting to see if the UCHC can even survive the next few years. Its a 6 team conference next year and all it takes is a Utica move to D1 a Naz/Manhattenville move to the NEHC, or a chatham move to the MAC and all of sudden this conference lost its autobid. Then again if they can somehow convince two out of the 3 ny NEHC teams (Hobart,Elmira,Skidmore) to join the UCHC u could argue thats the best conference in the county with Hobart, and Elmira saving a lot of money on travel. Skidmore probably wouldnt save as much as the other 2 I would admit.
                        The NEHC will probably be the next conference that “blows up” in 2025 when a number of their teams will be forced to leave because their all sports conferences affiliation will have enough teams to form a hockey conference.

                        In a way, this could save the UCHC as the three NY teams will be orphaned.
                        Russell Jaslow
                        [Former] SUNYAC Correspondent
                        U.S. College Hockey Online

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by VTpucksouteast View Post
                          Not sure where to post this, so I thought this might be the best option. Over on the DIII women's forum, I posted some rankings of conference thus far as we have hit the Christmas break to see who lines up where. I had read on a previous post that in terms of hockey, a pretty good (not necessarily perfect) way to measure conference strength was to look at the median RPI ranking of all a conference's teams and line up accordingly. I ran the numbers on the women's side, so I decided to take a shot at the men's. Just thought this was some interesting data.

                          Conference (Median RPI rank)

                          1. MIAC (33)
                          T-2. NEHC (36.5)
                          T-2. WIAC (36.5)
                          T-2. CCC (36.5)
                          5. NCHA (41)
                          6. Independents (42)
                          7. SUNYAC (50)
                          8. MASCAC (50.5)
                          9. NESCAC (53)
                          10. UCHC (54)

                          Definitely pretty eye-opening. When watching the games, you obviously would rather fear a SUNYAC schedule over an independent one, but I do like how this takes into account ALL games that teams play. Also, with just four independents, strong starts from Albertus and Anna Maria weigh heavily in that calculation.

                          MIAC on top isn't too terribly surprising given the perennial top-to-bottom quality depth of that league. Despite the bottom dwellers, I am surprised at how low the SUNYAC is ranked. Also, despite the CCC being "down" from last year, that's a super strong league with almost no "Gimmies." NEHC and WIAC being ranked high makes some common sense to most people. I can't say that seeing the UCHC at the bottom was shocking either. It'll be interesting to see how this evolves as the season goes on!
                          I am surprised by the SUNYAC ranking as well. But, some of the SUNYAC teams have weak nonconference schedules, and not necessarily winning those games, so it will pull the median down.
                          Russell Jaslow
                          [Former] SUNYAC Correspondent
                          U.S. College Hockey Online

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Russell Jaslow View Post

                            I am surprised by the SUNYAC ranking as well. But, some of the SUNYAC teams have weak nonconference schedules, and not necessarily winning those games, so it will pull the median down.
                            The conference is also pretty top-heavy this year. There's a big drop-off from the #4 teams to #5-10.
                            Steve
                            Penn State Class of '95
                            Plattsburgh State Class of '99

                            If corn oil is made from corn, and vegetable oil is made from vegetables, then what is baby oil made from?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Lord_Zubin View Post
                              Itll be interesting to see if the UCHC can even survive the next few years. Its a 6 team conference next year and all it takes is a Utica move to D1 a Naz/Manhattenville move to the NEHC, or a chatham move to the MAC and all of sudden this conference lost its autobid. Then again if they can somehow convince two out of the 3 ny NEHC teams (Hobart,Elmira,Skidmore) to join the UCHC u could argue thats the best conference in the county with Hobart, and Elmira saving a lot of money on travel. Skidmore probably wouldnt save as much as the other 2 I would admit.
                              UCHC will have 8, Geneseo and Brockport have already committed to moving next season, with Utica, Wilkes, Neumann, Manhattanville, Chatham and Nazareth staying

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