Heenan Finalist for UAA job

[pete99race]

Re: Heenan Finalist for UAA job

What conference did the '12-'13 National Champions hail from? And, what school gave them the most trouble in the NCAA tournament? What conference did that school hail from?

The answers to those questions may be worth investigating when discussing which was the top conference in '12-'13.

What he said!!

[Fishman'81]

Re: Heenan Finalist for UAA job

Fellas, no disrespect meant to the Western teams... Eau-Claire won the Placid tournament convincingly. No question about that.

I didn't mean to leave them out of the conversation, but we just have no context for E/W comparisons during the RS. Ergo, I confine my comments to Eastern teams.

Should have been more specific on that point.

[altazo]

Fellas, no disrespect meant to the Western teams... Eau-Claire won the Placid tournament convincingly. No question about that.


Should have been more specific on that point.

Yes, but they won much less convincingly in their Quarterfinal matchup (in fact they were outshot 2 to 1.) Which makes me think to consider that perhaps, in '12-'13 anyways, the NCHA was the strongest conference, regardless of what some inflated OOC or SOS numbers may suggest.

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: Heenan Finalist for UAA job

The ECAC West played nearly 70% of their NC games against the bottom half of league teams and ECACNE teams. The other 16 games the ECAC West was 9-7 with 5 of the 9 wins coming against the 3rd and 4th place SUNYAC teams.....

Sorry..inflated SOS indeed....

[NUProf]

Re: Heenan Finalist for UAA job

The ECAC West played nearly 70% of their NC games against the bottom half of league teams and ECACNE teams. The other 16 games the ECAC West was 9-7 with 5 of the 9 wins coming against the 3rd and 4th place SUNYAC teams.....

Sorry..inflated SOS indeed....

Remy, you realize that this is an argument that is not winnable. Even if you make a valid point, the metrics you use will not be taken seriously and the argument will be reframed with a different set of metrics, even if the individual in question had earlier discounted the metrics that he is now touting.

[PSUChamps2001]

Remy, you realize that this is an argument that is not winnable. Even if you make a valid point, the metrics you use will not be taken seriously and the argument will be reframed with a different set of metrics, even if the individual in question had earlier discounted the metrics that he is now touting.

I was bored

[llama]

Re: Heenan Finalist for UAA job

The ECAC West played nearly 70% of their NC games against the bottom half of league teams and ECACNE teams. The other 16 games the ECAC West was 9-7 with 5 of the 9 wins coming against the 3rd and 4th place SUNYAC teams.....

Sorry..inflated SOS indeed....

You seem to be good with data...and have some time on your hands. Looking at inter-conference records, most years either the ECAC-W or the NCHA owns the best OOC record for D-III.

You note 70% of the OC games for the ECAC-W were played against either bottom half teams (majority of which I would assume were SUNYAC) or ECAC-NE teams (your point being it doesn't matter where those teams finished in their league, it is a weak league).

I don't follow the West teams very closely, but I would agree with many who think the NCHA is the premier league in the West (if not in the whole country). However, most of their OC games come against either the MIAC or MCHA. No offense meant to those two leagues but they are consistently two of the worst in the country when it comes to records vs OC opponents (I'm guessing it doesn't help getting stuck playing OOC games vs NCHA teams all year).

So the NCHA beats up on those two leagues in the same way the ECAC-W does on the SUNYAC and ECAC-NE. I'm just curious if you did a similar kind of "deep dive', would you come to the same conclusion that the NCHA also has an "inflated SOS" thing going on. If not, why not?

Not arguing...just curious.

[Fishman'81]

Re: Heenan Finalist for UAA job

Remy, you realize that this is an argument that is not winnable. Even if you make a valid point, the metrics you use will not be taken seriously and the argument will be reframed with a different set of metrics, even if the individual in question had earlier discounted the metrics that he is now touting.

Sooo... Who had the highest SOS in your rankings among Eastern teams..? (Oh, that's right, you don't make your process subject to public scrutiny. )

Still, I'd like to see your numbers. There's no way that anyone could devise a plausible SOS ranking that didn't have UC at or near the top in the East.

Fellas, I have said many a time that I don't consider the KRACH to be gospel. I think it's the best of the very few D-3 metrics there, is all, and certainly much more credible than Prof's Wizard of Oz thing.

Yes, the KRACH translates poorly from East to West, because there are too few available comparisons in that regard. (Witness how all the NCHA teams got a huge SOS-boost after UWEC won it all.) But I wasn't talking about East/West comparisons to begin with, and the KRACH isn't hiding its process behind a curtain, in any case.

[Fishman'81]

Re: Heenan Finalist for UAA job

The ECAC West played nearly 70% of their NC games against the bottom half of league teams and ECACNE teams. The other 16 games the ECAC West was 9-7 with 5 of the 9 wins coming against the 3rd and 4th place SUNYAC teams.....

Sorry..inflated SOS indeed....

This is getting ridiculous. Utica played a W schedule (including all the requisite road games) and Oswego, twice. How much tougher does their schedule have to be to not appear "inflated" to you?

BTW, which Eastern team played a tougher schedule in your opinion? Do tell. (You "bored" interlopers love to rag on Utica, but I don't hear any of you suggesting that any other specific team in the region played tougher competition. Roll-out the data when you have the time.)

[Fishman'81]

Re: Heenan Finalist for UAA job

You seem to be good with data...and have some time on your hands. Looking at inter-conference records, most years either the ECAC-W or the NCHA owns the best OOC record for D-III.

You note 70% of the OC games for the ECAC-W were played against either bottom half teams (majority of which I would assume were SUNYAC) or ECAC-NE teams (your point being it doesn't matter where those teams finished in their league, it is a weak league).

I don't follow the West teams very closely, but I would agree with many who think the NCHA is the premier league in the West (if not in the whole country). However, most of their OC games come against either the MIAC or MCHA. No offense meant to those two leagues but they are consistently two of the worst in the country when it comes to records vs OC opponents (I'm guessing it doesn't help getting stuck playing OOC games vs NCHA teams all year).

So the NCHA beats up on those two leagues in the same way the ECAC-W does on the SUNYAC and ECAC-NE. I'm just curious if you did a similar kind of "deep dive', would you come to the same conclusion that the NCHA also has an "inflated SOS" thing going on. If not, why not?



Not arguing...just curious.

That's a rational post. Expect to be berated for it.

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: Heenan Finalist for UAA job

You seem to be good with data...and have some time on your hands. Looking at inter-conference records, most years either the ECAC-W or the NCHA owns the best OOC record for D-III.

You note 70% of the OC games for the ECAC-W were played against either bottom half teams (majority of which I would assume were SUNYAC) or ECAC-NE teams (your point being it doesn't matter where those teams finished in their league, it is a weak league).

I don't follow the West teams very closely, but I would agree with many who think the NCHA is the premier league in the West (if not in the whole country). However, most of their OC games come against either the MIAC or MCHA. No offense meant to those two leagues but they are consistently two of the worst in the country when it comes to records vs OC opponents (I'm guessing it doesn't help getting stuck playing OOC games vs NCHA teams all year).

So the NCHA beats up on those two leagues in the same way the ECAC-W does on the SUNYAC and ECAC-NE. I'm just curious if you did a similar kind of "deep dive', would you come to the same conclusion that the NCHA also has an "inflated SOS" thing going on. If not, why not?

Not arguing...just curious.

Just to answer a couple of your questions, yes I was including ALL of the ECACNE and the then ALL the other leagues. I did the SAME for the NCHA and came up with the fact that the NCHA played 23 of their 49 games against teams in the bottom half of the leagues (or ECAC NE) for just 47% of their NC games against the low end teams. While you can have your thoughts on the MIAC and MCHA, they have twice as many finals apperances then the ECAC West does....just saying.

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: Heenan Finalist for UAA job

This is getting ridiculous. Utica played a W schedule (including all the requisite road games) and Oswego, twice. How much tougher does their schedule have to be to not appear "inflated" to you?

BTW, which Eastern team played a tougher schedule in your opinion? Do tell. (You "bored" interlopers love to rag on Utica, but I don't hear any of you suggesting that any other specific team in the region played tougher competition. Roll-out the data when you have the time.)

Oh which it's been explained to you a million times how the ECAC West plays mostly creampuffs.....(see the 70% of games played against the lower end league teams). When they play against the tougher competition (the upper HALF) they are about a .500 league. So you want us to base the ECAC West off of their schedule against creampuff teams and not the tough competition right? Because beating all of those sub par teams and inflating the W-L records for the league makes you the best league. Therefor when you play each one of those teams 3 times you get to add in those inflated numbers.

People don't pick on Utica's schedule so much for WHO they play, they pick on the schedule because nearly 75% of their NC games over the past 6 or 7 years have been at home. You, just like your coach, tried saying "the Plattsburghs, Oswego's, and Norwich's are even worse" and when proven wrong time and time again you come up with some other lame excuse. But yes, since you mention it, Utica's schedule ISN'T the gods of all gods, sorry. When you take into condiseration their conference games SOS numbers are skewed (as explained above) it doesn't make for a highly tough schedule that's the toughest schedule of all schedules....those games with Salve Regina, Nichols, and WNE are just barn burners...

[UCAlum32]

Re: Heenan Finalist for UAA job

People don't pick on Utica's schedule so much for WHO they play, they pick on the schedule because nearly 75% of their NC games over the past 6 or 7 years have been at home.

Not going to argue with that I actually like that fact because it gives me more hockey to watch. I do have a feeling that ratio will be changing in the coming years with the Comets now in town and I would love if some of those new road games became home and home every other year series with some of the perennial top ten teams if holes can be found in the schedules

[llama]

Re: Heenan Finalist for UAA job

Just to answer a couple of your questions, yes I was including ALL of the ECACNE and the then ALL the other leagues. I did the SAME for the NCHA and came up with the fact that the NCHA played 23 of their 49 games against teams in the bottom half of the leagues (or ECAC NE) for just 47% of their NC games against the low end teams. While you can have your thoughts on the MIAC and MCHA, they have twice as many finals apperances then the ECAC West does....just saying.

I was trying to say that one could argue the NCHA's “equivalent league” to the ECAC-NE could be either the MIAC or the MCHA. Let's use the MCHA - as the NCHA played about the same number of games vs the MCHA (14) as the ECAC-W did against the ECAC-NE (13).

Then, let's take all their OOC games vs "lower half" teams from the other leagues. I just looked those games up - I believe the number adds up to 21. USCHO stats indicate the NCHA played 52 OOC games last season. 21 of those games were against “bottom half” teams and 14 were against the MCHA. To use the same "apples to apples" logic you used, you would say they played 35 of their 52 OC games against lower half teams or the MCHA (i.e. their equivalent to the ECAC-NE). That is 67%....or “almost 70%”.

So your original logic also can be applied to the same end when looking at the NCHA – do you think this means that the NCHA also has an “inflated SOS”?

BTW- My point is not to take anything away from the NCHA. I happen to consider them a powerhouse league and would argue that they were the best league in the country last year (as they have been in many other years). My point is it seems that your beef should be with the way SOS is calculated...not with the ECAC-W.

[PSUChamps2001]

I was trying to say that one could argue the NCHA's “equivalent league” to the ECAC-NE could be either the MIAC or the MCHA. Let's use the MCHA - as the NCHA played about the same number of games vs the MCHA (14) as the ECAC-W did against the ECAC-NE (13).

Then, let's take all their OOC games vs "lower half" teams from the other leagues. I just looked those games up - I believe the number adds up to 21. USCHO stats indicate the NCHA played 52 OOC games last season. 21 of those games were against “bottom half” teams and 14 were against the MCHA. To use the same "apples to apples" logic you used, you would say they played 35 of their 52 OC games against lower half teams or the MCHA (i.e. their equivalent to the ECAC-NE). That is 67%....or “almost 70%”.

So your original logic also can be applied to the same end when looking at the NCHA – do you think this means that the NCHA also has an “inflated SOS”?

BTW- My point is not to take anything away from the NCHA. I happen to consider them a powerhouse league and would argue that they were the best league in the country last year (as they have been in many other years). My point is it seems that your beef should be with the way SOS is calculated...not with the ECAC-W.

No...MCHA > ECACNE. Pre Adrian years I would agree, however since Adrian the MCHA (while not the NCHA errr kind of now) has began to be more competitive. You're trying to say Adrian, Marian, and MSOE is equal to Curry, Nichols and Wentworth? Yea...not.

But yes, I've always said the way the SOS metric is calculated is skewed. There are just too many "bad" teams in DIII and not enough games to get an accurate reading because you can skew the numbers way to easy. Just looking at the schedules for 2014 the ECAC West is playing nearly 80% of their NC schedule against those sub-par teams (granted still missing Neumann and Naz)