Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

[leswp1]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

TIIL Saturday recap has some good perspective and a good comparison between this team and the team from four years ago, even if it is a little accusatory towards USCHO posters .

http://theiceislife.wordpress.com/20...signed-up-for/

Some good points but I think assumptions are being made about how folks feel. I don't see everyone in here screaming for a change. We have a few Blaise haters who would be at it as we walked away with the big trophy but most here are wondering FTW. Perhaps the mind numbs to pain and I do not recall correctly but the season used to compare to this team there were a bunch of almost won games. I didn't feel like I was ready to give up the hope for a win until the final buzzer. This team I am ready to give up before I hit the seat. It is not a good feeling. The Frosh and sophs are looking very good to me. It is some of the glaring errors made by the older guys I find disheartening, esp since they are causing game changing/ending plays.

[John_Fuller]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

Some good points but I think assumptions are being made about how folks feel. I don't see everyone in here screaming for a change. We have a few Blaise haters who would be at it as we walked away with the big trophy but most here are wondering FTW. Perhaps the mind numbs to pain and I do not recall correctly but the season used to compare to this team there were a bunch of almost won games. I didn't feel like I was ready to give up the hope for a win until the final buzzer. This team I am ready to give up before I hit the seat. It is not a good feeling. The Frosh and sophs are looking very good to me. It is some of the glaring errors made by the older guys I find disheartening, esp since they are causing game changing/ending plays.

Just a couple of points of clarification that I would like to make.

My only goal of the post was to suggest that I've have doubts about the long term future of this team because we've been here before. To me, I see the same cycle that has been happening for the past 15 years, long before Blaise was coach. I'm not a "Blaise-lover" or "Blaise-hater", I'm a Blaise and Lowell supporter. I simply wanted to express my opinion that I don't think that long term this is going to work and I hope to hell I'm wrong. I have partially succeeded in this quest as this has been one of the more interesting and entertaining UML posts in a long time on this board and more importanly, it has remained civil.

Les, I think there are many assumptions being made here. That's why I posted what I did, it was a poll of what people and I was interested in their take. How people interpret it is up to them.

People on here know I'm not a fan of systems, but as a famous coach said, "It is what it is". I hate stats because you can spin them into anything. However, records are final and there isn't much difference between 3-8-3 and 2-10-2 at the end of the day. By definition, it is an oversimplistic view and a stat. No matter what the strength of schedule or goal differential may be, this is what coaches of all sports are judged upon, fair or unfair.

[bigeasy29]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

Even if they bring in a new coach doesn't mean lowell's problems will be answered!!! I want Lowell to win!!! I just hope if they make a change that the players respond in a positive way to the change!!! If they do make a change it needs to be done now!!!!! Give this team another year!!!!!

[bottomdweller]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

Even if they bring in a new coach doesn't mean lowell's problems will be answered!!! I want Lowell to win!!! I just hope if they make a change that the players respond in a positive way to the change!!! If they do make a change it needs to be done now!!!!! Give this team another year!!!!!

Ok, so now I'm confused. You said if they make a change it needs to be done now, but then give this team another year. Which is it?

Also, there is no need to shout. Let's use our indoor voices.

[Gainzo]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

We all knew it was going to be a rough season but I don't think any of us thought it was going to be this bad.

Boulanger is horrible and I feel bad for the kid, but Carr has been OK. The D on the other hand has been awful, just awful.

What happened to Maury Edwards? He was suspect last year and is even worse this year (-10).

No need for a Coaching change right now. Call me crazy but I think the boys pick up 3 points against UNH and Amherst. I will be at both games.

[quiddlet]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

Ok, so now I'm confused. You said if they make a change it needs to be done now, but then give this team another year. Which is it?

Also, there is no need to shout. Let's use our indoor voices.

You'll note he used five exclamation points on the last two sentences... indicating an even LOUDER VOICE!

[unhpuckfan2001]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

I don't follow UMLowell enough to say whether or not Blaise needs to go, but I will say I thought they were a program on the rise, especially after appearing in the Hockey East Championship Game. I would have hoped that more than just the die-hards (more than just people who take the time to post on here) would start showing up to games; I always want to see UNH do well, but I also am always rooting for growth of the sport, and the best means to that end is more teams doing well.

All I know is, there doesn't appear to be much fan support for UML right now. There's a radio ad up here, offering a two-ticket package including hot dogs and a drink for like $30. "Help make this a home game on the road for UNH, and turn Tsongas into the Whitttemore South." Sounds like the program didn't sell as many season tickets as they'd hoped . . .

[UMLFan]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

I don't follow UMLowell enough to say whether or not Blaise needs to go, but I will say I thought they were a program on the rise, especially after appearing in the Hockey East Championship Game. I would have hoped that more than just the die-hards (more than just people who take the time to post on here) would start showing up to games; I always want to see UNH do well, but I also am always rooting for growth of the sport, and the best means to that end is more teams doing well.

All I know is, there doesn't appear to be much fan support for UML right now. There's a radio ad up here, offering a two-ticket package including hot dogs and a drink for like $30. "Help make this a home game on the road for UNH, and turn Tsongas into the Whitttemore South." Sounds like the program didn't sell as many season tickets as they'd hoped . . .

I believe season tickets are selling well enough, and I was actually shocked that the attendance wasn't abysmal this past weekend considering it was Mankato, and obviously students weren't around.

Overall attendance is down this year, but that's not surprising considering that the team wasn't supposed to be good anyway.

The perception that many of us had was that 2 years ago was the building block, with last year being another forward step, but then a bit of a downer this year. Unfortunately that "bit of a downer" has (so far) been a pretty steep fall. We knew this team would struggle just to make the playoffs, but the way the team is losing is disheartening. It's made all the more frustrating by the fact that the the upperclassmen are either having a disappointing year so far, or are injured, which is piling more pressure on the freshmen and sophomores (albeit, those two classes have played surprisingly well considering everything).

[mikeinlowell]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

[

All I know is, there doesn't appear to be much fan support for UML right now. There's a radio ad up here, offering a two-ticket package including hot dogs and a drink for like $30. "Help make this a home game on the road for UNH, and turn Tsongas into the Whitttemore South." Sounds like the program didn't sell as many season tickets as they'd hoped . . .[/QUOTE]
I think the Tsongas is a little oversized for college hockey anyway...rarely sells out, so a ticket deal is always a good way to raise some money through consessions. I seem to remember Lowell having one of the highest average attendance rates last year. Don't think thats a big deal. Merrimack had a $5 ticket deal when Lowell played them, and $1 when they play Providence. Just trying to fill seats when the visiting team doesn't have a local following...

[thecomicbookguy]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

Question about the class sizes: My understanding is that in Blaise's tenure, there have been a couple of LARGE classes that moved through, creatng this cycle of building while the large class is young, to being a contender by the time the class matures, and then collapsing back down to building when the large class graduates, and a new large class comes in as freshmen. This happens because the size of that large class prohibits them from recruiting younger players. Would it be possible to thin out that class as they get older, and restore some balance to the recruiting? Just wondering if there's a "fix" to the problem.

I think the Tsongas is a little oversized for college hockey anyway...rarely sells out, so a ticket deal is always a good way to raise some money through consessions. I seem to remember Lowell having one of the highest average attendance rates last year. Don't think thats a big deal. Merrimack had a $5 ticket deal when Lowell played them, and $1 when they play Providence. Just trying to fill seats when the visiting team doesn't have a local following...

Oversized? Do you mean for the size of the school that plays there? I could understand that, as Lowell is smaller than a lot of the other D-I schools.

As for deals to "fill the seats when the visiting team doesn't have a local following," I'm pretty sure UNH has a local following (I would also argue that UML has a local following when they play at Merrimack, but I don't know how well UML fans travel these days).

[UMLFan]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

Question about the class sizes: My understanding is that in Blaise's tenure, there have been a couple of LARGE classes that moved through, creatng this cycle of building while the large class is young, to being a contender by the time the class matures, and then collapsing back down to building when the large class graduates, and a new large class comes in as freshmen. This happens because the size of that large class prohibits them from recruiting younger players. Would it be possible to thin out that class as they get older, and restore some balance to the recruiting? Just wondering if there's a "fix" to the problem.

I had mentioned this earlier ... but the problem actually started with Whitehead, and Coach MacDonald just hasn't been able to get out of it. I think right now he has a pretty good chance to do so in the next couple of years, as they 13 freshmen currently on the roster have 3 walk-ons amongst them (at least). They also have a walk-on I believe in RS So G Michael Heffron. That (to me) means roster spots are available the next couple of seasons, and I'd venture that one of the other 10 or so will probably leave the program for whatever reason along the way as well. That bring this class to 8 or 9 by graduation. Lowell currently has 5 seniors on the roster, and has 5 players committed entering school next September. To help even out the classes, IMHO, they need to bring in a couple more than than that (potentially using roster spots opened up from the walk-ons?). After that, there are 5 current juniors on the roster that will graduate in 2012. As of now, there are 2 commitments to cover those spots. If Coach brings in 2 more for September, and adds 4/5 more for 2012, then you're looking at a much more even base of 8/9 juniors that season (this year's freshmen), 7 sophomores and 6/7 freshmen ... it's possible, as long as things don't go terribly awry along the way.

As for deals to "fill the seats when the visiting team doesn't have a local following," I'm pretty sure UNH has a local following (I would also argue that UML has a local following when they play at Merrimack, but I don't know how well UML fans travel these days).

We usually have about 75-100 travel to Merrimack, not sure what it was like a couple of weeks ago.

[SpauldingSmails]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

I understand that there is frustration in UML land. It might be easy for me to say as a BU fan, but I have always been impressed with what Blaise has been able to put together under relatively challenging circumstances. He has to take recruits, for the most part, that the other schools don't prioritize. Plain and simple, kids don't tend to grow up locally and want to be a Chief (aka River Hawk). As was mentioned several times in the thread the threat of a program close is also no small recruiting challenge.

BU's best recruiting days were when Blaise was on the job there.

Of the last 12 HE champs BU or BC won 9. If you go back further, the picture is even less encouraging as teams outside of the top four have only won a handful of times - one of those was Providence in 1985. I know that losing in the final doesn't feel like an accomplishment, but it is - particularly when you beat UVM (a final four team) to get there. How often have Merrimack and UMA been in the final?

I don't want to assert that you should be happy with being out of the top teams, I'm simply suggesting that you recognize that you might have a good to great coach on board.

[Babikian]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

Lowell started its downward spiral before the season started when Mr. Julian "Committed to UML" Melchiori decided to go play in Kitchener. Felt like everyone was big on this guy coming in and could have helped out the freshman class.

[UMLGoon]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

as was laid out below, it's very, very difficult for a team that isn't BC, BU or UNH to win a hockey east title. since 2000, only one other team has done it, and that's maine (twice). you have to go all the way back to 1996 to find a winner that wasn't one of the big four. i know we like to talk about how close the league is, and how top-to-bottom it's tougher than any conference in the country, but the reality is that it's not and frankly it never has been.

something to consider that most of you almost certainly haven't: perhaps macdonald sees the uneven classes as lowell's best chance to compete somewhat regularly in hockey east. prior to the classes being terribly uneven, how often did lowell compete for home ice in hockey east? answer: not very. in fact, hardly at all apart from the crowder years.

here is the number of finishes by position since lowell joined hockey east:
1: 0
2: 3 (86-7, 93-4, 95-6)
3: 1 (09-10*)
4: 3 (87-8**, 92-3, 01-2)
5: 5 (84-5, 94-5, 97-8, 00-1, 04-5***, 08-9)
6: 4 (85-6, 91-2, 98-9, 03-4)
7: 6 (88-9, 89-90, 90-1, 96-7, 05-6, 07-8)
8: 1 (02-3)
9: 2 (99-00, 06-7)
10: 0

* lost home ice on tie breaker
** 4th wasn't worth home ice then
*** forfeited four points and lost home ice thanks to dickface paul falco

this shows that, historically, lowell is a team that should finish between 5-7. the average finish, in fact, is 5.5, but that's occasionally because it couldn't finish lower than 7th, 8th or 9th due to the number of teams in the league.

so let's look at it prior to the classes becoming unbalanced in about 1999-2000: apart from a couple of second-place finishes (not coincidentally the years lowell made the ncaa tournament) but other than that a lot of missing home ice, often by substantial margins. on average, though, lowell only missed home ice by five points (75 total in 15 years, if you also deduct the point totals above the 5th place team when they did get home ice).

the classes became unbalanced in 1999-2000 and caused lowell, with a freshman- and sophomore-laden team (there were 18 of them, including all three goalies), to crash into last place in the league for the first time since 1988-89. they missed home ice by 17 points that year. but lowell rebounded considerably the next year and finished fifth, missing home ice by just four points.

and then blaise macdonald took over and immediately won home ice, staying three points clear of a playoff road trip. but that was the last time lowell would get home ice under his direction as the team finished eighth the next year, 15 points from home ice, thanks to having two freshmen and sophomore chris davidson between the pipes.

of particular interest is the last two cycles of freshmen.

02-3: 8th, 15 points out
03-4: 6th, 6 points out*
04-5: 5th, 6 points out
05-6: 7th, 10 points out (walter left, team sulked all year)

*forfeited points dropped lowell to 19 and bumped amherst to 27. had lowell been awarded those points, the home ice threshold would have been 23 for both teams (PC had 20 to finish 5th) and lowell would have won the tiebreaker
------------ (new group) ------------
06-7: 9th, 15 points out
07-8: 7th, 5 points out
08-9: 5th, 4 points out
09-10: t-3rd, 0 points out

one could say that there's been an improvement in the quality of freshmen after their first years in the league over the last eight years, one that will likely continue into the future as the team is better funded (hopefully) and supported (obviously) by the school.

but let's look at blaise's overall performance: an average finish of sixth place even, though a majority of that tenure has been played in a 10-team league. he's missed home ice by an average of 6.44 points a year. this is brought down HEAVILY by 30 of the 58 points by which he's missed home ice coming in two seasons, 2002-03 and 2007-08. both years, he leaned heavily or entirely on freshman goaltenders. this is likely to happen again this year, and, in fact, is right about in line with being a 15-point drop from 4th to lowell's position, whatever that may end up being (likely 10th).

so if blaise is guilty of anything in the class-stacking, it's of not having adequately seasoned goaltenders to backstop the teams competently. this will likely be amended by the time this group graduates because chris eiserman (hopefully) will have gotten enough practice not to pee down his leg when things go bad like carr and (especially) boulanger have this year.

[unhpuckfan2001]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

I think the Tsongas is a little oversized for college hockey anyway...rarely sells out, so a ticket deal is always a good way to raise some money through consessions. I seem to remember Lowell having one of the highest average attendance rates last year. Don't think thats a big deal. Merrimack had a $5 ticket deal when Lowell played them, and $1 when they play Providence. Just trying to fill seats when the visiting team doesn't have a local following...

Mullins Center: 8,373 (UMass)
Conte Forum: 7,884 (BC)
Whittemore Center: 6,501 (UNH)
Agganis Arena: 6,300 (BU)
Alfond Arena: 5,641 (Maine)
Matthews Arena: 5,400 (NU)
Tsongas Arena: 4,500 (UML)
Gutterson Field House: 4,003 (UVM)
Schneider Arena: 3,030 (PC)
Lawler Arena: 3,000 (Mack)

These numbers are from the Hockey East Website; I'm actually surprised Tsongas isn't higher up the list, the building always felt larger than that when I was there.

Now that UML owns the building, rather than an AHL team or a facility management company, I will be surprised if they're not more aggressive with tickets deals. UNH is doing the same thing; true, you're not making as much as when you're charging $24 a seat, but better to sell 'em for $11, and then make money on concessions, rather than having perpetual "dress up like an empty seat night".

Hopefully UML can turn things around; it was always the scrappy, die-hard teams that led to the strength of the league. I think Blaise is the right guy for the job.