Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

[mookie1995]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

ok, part of me wants to give the benefit of the doubt and say the sr class should see wilson and bonino up front, cohen and shattenkirk on the blue line. but whatever. got to replace the parts if you're buying the groceries. nice kids and all, but i just stare when i see some of the guys that are playing the top two pp units every night.

frustration has awoken with me this morning.

[mookie1995]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

That makes even less sense....

dude, it's really simple.. we are boston ****ing university.

there are a handful of programs against which we measure ourselves. not 57.

thanks for your sympathy... (i'm glad it's come to that... mack fans telling us it's not so bad.... )

[dmjossel]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

That's a lot of analysis; thanks for a thought-out opinion.

Thanks! I try.

The real test of a team -- and this is something many others have put forth, not just something I'm choosing for this post -- is Frozen Four appearances. Even more so than national championships: an NC can be won by a one-off, streaking hot team, anything can happen, etc. You're not hearing people arguing that we should win an NC every year, or even every five.

I can see the value of that in judging the consistency of a team's performance. I'd still just consider it one of the ways of judging it, though. I don't quite see how a national championship can be won by a streaking team or an "anything can happen" sort of situation, but a single-game series at a regional can't be the same. Still, point taken.

Multiple FF appearances, however, show you've really got something good going on. So, taking the recent ten years idea you used (2001-2010), here are your teams by Frozen Four appearences:

[snip]

Bemidji State, BU, Colorado College, Cornell, Notre Dame, Minn-Duluth, Vermont, RIT - 1

Yes, so along with the other statistics that showed that BU was very, very good in the mid 90s and is now merely good, BU does not have "something good going on", at least not compared to these other teams, or compared to previous performance. I just honestly don't see that this kind of performance can be expected from decade to decade without variance. You'd have to presume that other programs are just standing still and not responding to what you're doing, or that no new programs are coming up.

The current drought of FF appearances for BU is no more serious than the one that existed in the 80s, between their "good decades" in the 70s and the 90s. Should Parker have been fired back then, if such a drought is justification? Would another coach have produced the same results later as Parker did? Is Parker himself not a good coach, but just the caretaker of the BU program and the inheritor of Jack Kelley's legacy (leaving aside the two year interim where BU won nothing, under Abbott)?

That last grouping really stands out. You won't find a BU hockey fan who accepts being on the same level as Bemidji State, Colorado College, Cornell, Minn-Duluth, Notre Dame, Vermont, or RIT. (And that's no disrespect to those teams.)

See, the problem though here is that it is a disrespect to those teams, and their fans. It might not be intended as one, but it is nonetheless. It's the arrogance that asserts that because BU is BU, what is a good performance for another program is unacceptable for them. It's the difference between a confident, but earnest desire to be the best, and the presumption that one is better than others, and finding fault with those who fail to turn this ideal state into a reality, as if it were solely within their power to grant.

However, if all parties are in agreement, by all means, let Parker go. Seeing the result of coaching changes after periods of dominance at BC and Maine, I'd feel confident that whomever BU puts into that job is going to have his work cut out for him.

Also I'm glad Merrimack has inked Dennehy to an extension. I think he's done a great job this season, with a lot less to work with in terms of institutional resources and facilities, than some of the larger universities in Hockey East. (And that's no disrespect to those teams

[DaveStPaul]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

That makes even less sense . . . .

If you were to look at the ten year period from 1999 to 2009, would you then say that Parker should be fired because although he won a national championship, the previous nine years were not so good?

If you cannot say that, what has been so terrible about the two intervening years that somehow overpowers that year?
. . .

That's a lot of analysis; thanks for a thought-out opinion.

The real test of a team -- and this is something many others have put forth, not just something I'm choosing for this post -- is Frozen Four appearances. Even more so than national championships: an NC can be won by a one-off, streaking hot team, anything can happen, etc. You're not hearing people arguing that we should win an NC every year, or even every five.

Multiple FF appearances, however, show you've really got something good going on. So, taking the recent ten years idea you used (2001-2010), here are your teams by Frozen Four appearences:

BC - 6
North Dakota - 5
Michigan - 4
Maine - 4
Minnesota - 3
Wisconsin - 2
UNH - 2
Mich State - 2
Denver - 2
Miami - 2
Bemidji State, BU, Colorado College, Cornell, Notre Dame, Minn-Duluth, Vermont, RIT - 1

That last grouping really stands out. You won't find a BU hockey fan who accepts being on the same level as Bemidji State, Colorado College, Cornell, Minn-Duluth, Notre Dame, Vermont, or RIT. (And that's no disrespect to those teams.)

[dmjossel]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

Dude, I think you entirely missed his point about BU over the last 10+ years, not just since 2009.

That makes even less sense.

If you were to look at the ten year period from 1999 to 2009, would you then say that Parker should be fired because although he won a national championship, the previous nine years were not so good?

If you cannot say that, what has been so terrible about the two intervening years that somehow overpowers that year?

From 2001-2011, BU has: participated in the NCAAs six times. That's more than half the time. There are more appearances since 2005-2011 (4) than from 2001-2004 (2).

From 2001-2011 BU has: won the regular season championship twice. Both in the latter half of that period.

From 2001-2010 BU has: won the playoff league championship twice. Both in the latter half of that period.

Even if you throw out BU's pretty good decade in the '90s, and its utter dominance of Hockey East from 93-97, the BU hockey program is doing better now than it was ten years ago. Ten years ago the team's winning percentage was .419. So far this year it is .583. That .419 mark isn't even the worst in school history or even Parker's history in Hockey East-- that's the .403 mark back in 1989.

There's also a pretty big gap between BU's good years in the 90s and their last dominant period before that-- their tenure in the ECAC between '71 and '78. Also under Parker.

This year's team has 14 wins today. Even if they were to not win another game this season-- which I consider pretty unlikely-- it would not be much more than a blip on the program's radar.

The team had 14-win (or fewer) campaigns in: 2004, 2001, 1999, 1989, 1988, 1982, 1981, 1980. In other words, they finished with 14 wins or fewer four times in the 1980s, once in the 1990s, and twice in the 00s.

That is not a clear downward trend "over the last 10+ years". There isn't such a trend. You can't find one. The only thing you can find is that the team has enjoyed two extended periods of NCAA participation in two separate, alternating decades-- both under the same coach. (Note that these decade alternations fit a nice pattern against the performance of BC, first under Ceglarski in the late 80s, early 90s and then York, since the late 90s.

York himself had an off year in 2008-9. The Eagles didn't make the NCAAs after being in six straight times. Maybe they should have fired him? If two below average seasons can be enough, why not one? York's .554 mark that year was worse than what the Terriers have right now.

I honestly don't believe I'm defending Parker. I can think of lots of reasons why it might be time for BU to make a change, but the idea that there's a justifiable lack of success at BU over the past decade is ridiculous. No program dominates decade after decade without break.

Thank your lucky stars you're a fan of a team that can call for a coach's head two seasons after a national championship, and not one that waits 20+ years between chances to play for one. The thing is, without a lot of programs like the latter, the former can't fill a season schedule.

[Redd10]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

It doesn't really matter what other teams do when this BU team is likely to go 2-4 or 3-3 the rest of the way. There's too many holes on this squad and they all (including JP) seem to be resigned to missing the NCAAs again. Quote from JP following the loss pretty much sums it up:

“I think it’s going to be the last straw for us,” said BU coach Jack Parker (Somerville, Mass.). “We’ve got to get many more games over .500, and this makes it more difficult. As far as the NCAA selection process, this was a huge loss for us”

I really don't like the tone of this, not at all. Whatever progress we thought they all made by strong showings in Durham and Orono are moot now. He's always coached this team to peak at the Beanpot and then they fade.

I guess they faded sometime in November for us.

i completely agree about Parker's tone and how he seemed resigned to a lackluster finish to this season. it's very disconcerting and it certainly doesn't bode well for this team's chances coming down the home stretch.

that being said, a big part of me is holding onto that small chance that guys like Pereira and Connolly will get the team going at least enough to muster a 4-2 finish or something of the like. if they can just put some wins together, maybe the morale gets better and they make a mini run in the HE playoffs

[J.D.]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

Dude, I think you entirely missed his point about BU over the last 10+ years, not just since 2009.

[dmjossel]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

I'm frustrated. I want BU Hockey to be among the elite programs in the country. I fear it will be a long time before that is achieved again.

BU fans sound spoiled. I'm sure BC fans would be no less disappointed losing to Harvard-- probably more so.

But when you come out with pronouncements like you want BU to be an elite program again, and you think Parker ought to go because of the lack of results... you've got to be kidding me.

You know you guys won a national championship in 2009, right? That's two years ago, isn't it? Do BU fans suffer from short-term memory loss, or is this just an extreme example of what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?

Every fan wants his team to win. Teams that win a lot have fans that want them to win even more. Teams that win almost all the time have fans that want their team to win all the time.

If all the fans of teams that win nearly all the time got their wish, there'd be no need to play the games. There'd be no uncertainty, no surprise-- and no fun.

Yes, BU is having a not so hot year. The suggestion that programs have a divine right to expect to be elite each and every year is an offense.

I'm no fan of Parker, particularly-- in fact I'm a bit surprised I'm even writing this-- but the idea that a couple of average years in which some other teams do better than BU is justification for Parker's termination just seems ludicrous, and only emerges out of an unjustifiable sense of entitlement.

[Agganis]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

I can barely remember the last time this team didn't bring their A game, squeaked out a win, and came back out the next game with a performance as if to say "We got lucky last game, lets regroup and just win this one on talent and hard work" it seems they need to actually lose to even attempt to increase their focus. Last game that comes to mind is the '09 BP final after they went up 3-0 to UML, stopped playing hockey until it became 3-3 and eeked out 2 goals late on the Friday prior, but that game was even proceeded by a similar 1 goal win against Harvard in the first round. Any games more recently that I'm missing?

[defkit]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

What a disappointment. First 4th place finish in over 30 years, and against a team that had won, what, 3 games? And to make it even worse, they blew a late third period lead.

I'm sorry but this team is well on its way to missing the NCAAs for the second year in a row, and it will be 1 FF in the past 14 years. Is this acceptable?

The difference between BU and BC is striking. Their offensive execution is seemingly flawless when it counts most (that 4 on 2 in OT tonight could not have been done any better). They play as a team. BU has a few good players, but here we are in February, and we still haven't found good line combinations.

At what point does Jack start thinking it's time to move on? The BU Beanpot magic is now officially gone. One FF in 13 years, soon to be 14. If he really loves BU Hockey, he should think about whether or not this program is really better off with him as coach. He didn't think he would match Jack Kelley's 10 years of coaching. Now with 38 years or whatever, he doesn't even seem to be considering that maybe he is a reason for the lack of success since the golden years of the 1990's.

I know I'm being overly dramatic, but if it weren't for one magical season in which a team stocked with several future NHLers overcame being horribly outplayed in the regional final and had to pull off the miracle of miracles to beat a the #9 overall sees in Miami, this team would be looking at one heck of a dry spell. It's one thing to come very close to going to the FF, as we did in 1998 and 2000 with OT losses in regional finals, but other than 2009, it's been a long time since we have really had a shot at making it to the elite group.

How many times (years) do we have to wonder why the team can't give a full effort for 60 minutes before we realize that the one constant is the head coach. How is it that Jerry York has the team all gelling at the same time, at the right time, year in and year out? While at BU, when a couple players get hot, others go cold? Gill hot at the beginning of the year, cold since. Trivino, Nieto and Megan warming up, Coyle and Warsofsky are cold. And as mentioned multiple times, the PP is terrible.

I respect Jack Parker - he is deservedly a coaching icon, one of the all-time greats. He has been consistent in what he has taught - all around game, defense first. Unfortunately, the results are no longer there.

I'm frustrated. I want BU Hockey to be among the elite programs in the country. I fear it will be a long time before that is achieved again.

[J.D.]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

I really don't like the tone of this, not at all. Whatever progress we thought they all made by strong showings in Durham and Orono are moot now. He's always coached this team to peak at the Beanpot and then they fade.

Not sure who said it, but you have to wonder if the Beanpot loss to BC did have an impact on them. They won at UMass, but that wasn't a great showing. And then this...

[Bigus Paulus]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

Nothing like having a 2-0-1 record against ND and Wisco ****ed away by poor OOC play the rest of the season.

[Jacques Joubert]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

and after nu loses tonight they are two games under. they have bc this weekend (2 more losses), and we have to assume we sweep them... they have no chance at TUC either.

It doesn't really matter what other teams do when this BU team is likely to go 2-4 or 3-3 the rest of the way. There's too many holes on this squad and they all (including JP) seem to be resigned to missing the NCAAs again. Quote from JP following the loss pretty much sums it up:

“I think it’s going to be the last straw for us,” said BU coach Jack Parker (Somerville, Mass.). “We’ve got to get many more games over .500, and this makes it more difficult. As far as the NCAA selection process, this was a huge loss for us”

I really don't like the tone of this, not at all. Whatever progress we thought they all made by strong showings in Durham and Orono are moot now. He's always coached this team to peak at the Beanpot and then they fade.

I guess they faded sometime in November for us.

[mookie1995]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

and after nu loses tonight they are two games under. they have bc this weekend (2 more losses), and we have to assume we sweep them... they have no chance at TUC either.

[mookie1995]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 part II - The Hunt For Red November

it's not the pairs against those teams we'd be looking to make up, it's the other bubble teams with an rpi boost, since the rpi is the most important pwr factor. NU also has an outside shot at being a TUC so that could give us two more games against a TUC, so could the he QF's depending on how that falls.

i didn't type it, but that was implied with the 'wins'. we are playing crappy teams. no help.
the only way we'd get a qf boost would be to get uhn or mack in a 4/5... i can see maine falling under that TUC cut. they have two with mack, and four road games at lowell and umass. swept, split, split and they finish .500! you get them in the qf and beat them - adios TUC.