Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

[Woods_187]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

The PWR:

1 Denver (DU)
2 Miami (Mm)
3 Wisconsin (Wi)
4t Boston College (BC)
4t North Dakota (ND)
4t St. Cloud State (SC)
7 Bemidji State (BS)
8t Ferris State (FS)
8t Cornell (Cr)
10 Yale (Ya)
11 Northern Michigan (NM)
12 Alaska (Ak)
13 Vermont (Vt)
14t Minnesota-Duluth (MD)
---
14t New Hampshire (NH)
16t Michigan (Mi)
16t Michigan State (MS)
18t Maine (Me)
18t Boston University (BU)
20 Union (Un)
21t Colorado College (CC)
21t Mass.-Lowell (ML)
23 Nebraska-Omaha (NO)
24 Minnesota (Mn)
25 RIT (RT)

Brackets:

Albany			Worcester		Fort Wayne	St. Paul
Denver			Boston College		Miami		Wisconsin
Ferris St		North Dakota		Bemidji State	St Cloud
Cornell			Alaska			Yale		NMU
RIT			UMD			Huntsville	Vermont

You think the NCAA will reward DU and adhere to "a flight is a flight" mentality" by sending them to the Albany Regional instead of their closest geographical Regional in St. Paul? Do you see a scenario where BSU could end up in the St. Paul Regional and what would this involve? Thanks!

[Woods_187]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Wouldn't Huntsville end up being the #16 seed (lower Pairwise than RIT) and face Denver in their regional?

[gfmorris]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Wouldn't Huntsville end up being the #16 seed (lower Pairwise than RIT) and face Denver in their regional?

Yes, but we've been flipped before to put the AHA champ in the East/Northeast Regional and putting UAH in the Midwest. This happened in 2007, when we were all expecting a much longer trip than Grand Rapids.

GFM

[wsp67326]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Wouldn't Huntsville end up being the #16 seed (lower Pairwise than RIT) and face Denver in their regional?

Theoretically, yes. But I think it's a case of estimating the effect geography wil have in filling the seats at the regionals. RIT in Albany would be best for that. Denver will have to fly anywhere, and Miami will be best situated in Indiana for the same reason. At least, that's my guess.

[GopherBigGuy911]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

What are the chances BSU will be placed in Saint Paul?

[Priceless]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

You think the NCAA will reward DU and adhere to "a flight is a flight" mentality" by sending them to the Albany Regional instead of their closest geographical Regional in St. Paul? Do you see a scenario where BSU could end up in the St. Paul Regional and what would this involve? Thanks!

As long as Cornell/UNH is in Denver's bracket, they go east more to ensure attendance than the "flight is a flight" rule. If St Cloud, Bemidji or UND found themselves in Denver's bracket rather than Wisconsin's, then the rule will be forgotten in exchange for giving them the geographic advantage...

Right now, RIT is the expected autobid from the AHA which makes the switch a no-brainer. If the autobid switches to Air Force, that will be reexamined.

Bemidji will get the St. Paul regional if they are in the correct bracket...it's really a funtion of their #1 seed. If they're in Miami's pod, they'll go to Fort Wayne; BC's pod and they'll go to Worcester. Being paired with Denver, Wisconsin, St Cloud or NoDak are their best bets to remain in St. Paul.

[Woods_187]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

As long as Cornell/UNH is in Denver's bracket, they go east more to ensure attendance than the "flight is a flight" rule. If St Cloud, Bemidji or UND found themselves in Denver's bracket rather than Wisconsin's, then the rule will be forgotten in exchange for giving them the geographic advantage...

Right now, RIT is the expected autobid from the AHA which makes the switch a no-brainer. If the autobid switches to Air Force, that will be reexamined.

Bemidji will get the St. Paul regional if they are in the correct bracket...it's really a funtion of their #1 seed. If they're in Miami's pod, they'll go to Fort Wayne; BC's pod and they'll go to Worcester. Being paired with Denver, Wisconsin, St Cloud or NoDak are their best bets to remain in St. Paul.

If BSU is to end up in Denver's pod, they would need to end-up #8 in pairwise, correct (#1, #8, #9, #16 in same pod)? Grouping possible #1 Denver, #8 BSU, #9 Cornell/Yale, #16 AHA Champ in a regional out east seems counter-productive and would seem to present more of a home-ice advantage for the lower seeds as opposed to what I thought was supposed to be a reward for being higher seeds (regional closer to geographic home)?

[Priceless]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

If BSU is to end up in Denver's pod, they would need to end-up #8 in pairwise, correct (#1, #8, #9, #16 in same pod)? Grouping possible #1 Denver, #8 BSU, #9 Cornell/Yale, #16 AHA Champ in a regional out east seems counter-productive and would seem to present more of a home-ice advantage for the lower seeds as opposed to what I thought was supposed to be a reward for being higher seeds (regional closer to geographic home)?

Denver can still finish #2.

BSU doesn't want to end up in the same bracket as Cornell, as that pod is likely bound for Albany.

The NCAA doesn't have much problem giving Minnesota, Michigan or Wisconsin home ice, even if they're a lower seed. I don't see a problem putting a game on neutral ice and having a lower seed enjoy a "home crowd' advantage. Denver is going to be outmanned crowd-wise unless the games are held in Antarctica anyway.

[Puck Swami]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

If BSU is to end up in Denver's pod, they would need to end-up #8 in pairwise, correct (#1, #8, #9, #16 in same pod)? Grouping possible #1 Denver, #8 BSU, #9 Cornell/Yale, #16 AHA Champ in a regional out east seems counter-productive and would seem to present more of a home-ice advantage for the lower seeds as opposed to what I thought was supposed to be a reward for being higher seeds (regional closer to geographic home)?

The problem for Denver is that is that St. Paul isn't any more of a home advantage for Denver than Albany. DU fans are a small fan base and have to fly anyway, so the proximity to home argument isn't very compelling when balanced with attendence considerations for everyone else.

The bigger issue in my mind is who the opponents are for Denver. Playing St. Cloud or Bemidji in St. Paul vs Cornell or RIT in Albany woulld suggest that DU is going to be outnumbered in any venue in terms of fans, and there is no real home ice advantage for the Pios this year.

But either St. Paul or Albany is preferable to a trip to Yost to play Michigan.

[Woods_187]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Denver can still finish #2.

BSU doesn't want to end up in the same bracket as Cornell, as that pod is likely bound for Albany.

The NCAA doesn't have much problem giving Minnesota, Michigan or Wisconsin home ice, even if they're a lower seed. I don't see a problem putting a game on neutral ice and having a lower seed enjoy a "home crowd' advantage. Denver is going to be outmanned crowd-wise unless the games are held in Antarctica anyway.

So, Miami would need to end up #1, DU #2 in PWR would potentially force committee to send Miami to Ft. Wayne & DU to St. Paul, am I correct? Then St. Cloud/UND would need to finish #7 & BSU #10 (#2, #7, #10, #15 same pod) to potentially have these teams all in St. Paul? Just trying to determine a scenario/PWR rankings for key teams to get BSU into St. Paul. Just wondering how likely this would be…

[Priceless]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

So, Miami would need to end up #1, DU #2 in PWR would potentially force committee to send Miami to Ft. Wayne & DU to St. Paul, am I correct? Then St. Cloud/UND would need to finish #7 & BSU #10 (#2, #7, #10, #15 same pod) to potentially have these teams all in St. Paul? Just trying to determine a scenario/PWR rankings for key teams to get BSU into St. Paul. Just wondering how likely this would be…

To put BSU in St Paul:

3 - Wisconsin
6 - Bemidji
11 - XXXX
14 - XXXX

4 - North Dakota
5 - Bemidji
12 - XXXX
13 - XXXX

4 - St Cloud
5 - Bemidji
12 - XXXX
13 - XXXX

It's very unlikely Denver is going to end up in St Paul, and 99% impossible for Miami, so finishing 7 or 8 probably isn't going to get it done.

[beaverhockeyfan]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

To put BSU in St Paul:

3 - Wisconsin
6 - Bemidji
11 - XXXX
14 - XXXX

4 - North Dakota
5 - Bemidji
12 - XXXX
13 - XXXX

4 - St Cloud
5 - Bemidji
12 - XXXX
13 - XXXX

It's very unlikely Denver is going to end up in St Paul, and 99% impossible for Miami, so finishing 7 or 8 probably isn't going to get it done.

But, the NCAA does have flexability of moving teams around within the "bands" (all four one seeds, all four two seeds, etc.) for attendance, intra-conference matchup problems and travel purposes. Basically, it is all a crapshoot until the tournament is actually announced on Sunday.

[Priceless]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

But, the NCAA does have flexability of moving teams around within the "bands" (all four one seeds, all four two seeds, etc.) for attendance, intra-conference matchup problems and travel purposes. Basically, it is all a crapshoot until the tournament is actually announced on Sunday.

They can, but they haven't.

They could have kept Air Force close to home even though they were a 4-seed, and they could have put UNH in the east when they were a 1-seed but they didn't. The attendance thing is leftover from the pre-2003 days.

[Woods_187]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

I haven't been able to find a scenario in the Pairwise Predictor which can accomplish getting BSU to #5 and either UND/SCSU as #4, or BSU as #6 Wisconsin as #3, any suggestions? Did BSU's chances of getting into St. Paul evaporate when they didn't win CHA Tourney (heard rumor they could've been #4 if so)? Thanks!

[beaverhockeyfan]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

They can, but they haven't.

They could have kept Air Force close to home even though they were a 4-seed, and they could have put UNH in the east when they were a 1-seed but they didn't. The attendance thing is leftover from the pre-2003 days.

I believe last year, BSU was the #16 seed and played the #2 seed Notre Dame in the first round.

Basically, what I was saying is that the NCAA is not locked into the 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, 5-13, etc., seedings. There are other factors that come into play as to where teams end up playing.