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2024 Pairwise and Tournament Qualification Thread

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  • #31
    I should have been more clear in my earlier post. I know why BU would get sent out west. Before last night’s games, however, BU was still targeted for Springfield. Was it Omaha’s loss last night? Something else? A combination of games? I know the UMass-Providence today game is important, too. Any games out west that need to go BU’s way to get them back in Springfield is what I’m asking. Other than, of course, BU winning its game.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by Scarlet View Post
      I should have been more clear in my earlier post. I know why BU would get sent out west. Before last night’s games, however, BU was still targeted for Springfield. Was it Omaha’s loss last night? Something else? A combination of games? I know the UMass-Providence today game is important, too. Any games out west that need to go BU’s way to get them back in Springfield is what I’m asking. Other than, of course, BU winning its game.
      OK. What BU needs to stay in the east is 2 things:
      1) Omaha does NOT end up as a #4 seed. How that happens? It was Omaha losing to CC last night that dropped them from a 3 to a 4 and that pushes BU out west. Easiest way for Omaha to NOT be a 4 is if they win the next 3 games in a row. Alternatively, if they lose again tonight, they could easily end up OUT of the tourney.

      2) UMass not being a 4 seed either. Easy way? Root for Providence tonight.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Numbers View Post

        OK. What BU needs to stay in the east is 2 things:
        1) Omaha does NOT end up as a #4 seed. How that happens? It was Omaha losing to CC last night that dropped them from a 3 to a 4 and that pushes BU out west. Easiest way for Omaha to NOT be a 4 is if they win the next 3 games in a row. Alternatively, if they lose again tonight, they could easily end up OUT of the tourney.

        2) UMass not being a 4 seed either. Easy way? Root for Providence tonight.
        This is the answer I was looking for, thanks. Gah! Stupid hosting schools!

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        • #34
          I don't think the scenario presented sends BU west as the NCHC has 5 teams in that field and the avoidance of the intraconference match up no longer applies. What may be intriguing is that there may still be a possibility of both Providence and UMass getting in but probably only if UMass wins. The fact that the NCHC series goes best of three could keep Providence in the field with losses by some of those teams as the margin is very slim now.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by BC/HE View Post
            I don't think the scenario presented sends BU west as the NCHC has 5 teams in that field and the avoidance of the intraconference match up no longer applies. What may be intriguing is that there may still be a possibility of both Providence and UMass getting in but probably only if UMass wins. The fact that the NCHC series goes best of three could keep Providence in the field with losses by some of those teams as the margin is very slim now.
            While I would agree with this according to the strict wording of the 5-team rule, historically it is true that only when the 5 teams were all 1 and 4 seeds, or 2 and 3 seeds, were exceptions made.

            So, the rule is really: No intraconference games in Round 1, unless there is no way to avoid them without changing the seeds. 1, 2, 3, and 4 seed bands take precedence.

            As I write, Mass is beating Prov. So, we might see how this actually works out.

            At 6:30 EDT, March 16, UMass is a #3, but Omaha is a #4, so it's still chaos. In fact, Omaha and WMU are both #4s, so the overall 1 and 2 would have to play the #13 and #14 teams. And, overall #3 and #4 would get the AHA and CCHA champions.
            Last edited by Numbers; 03-16-2024, 05:46 PM.

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            • #36
              What a headache / logjam of Big 10 teams in the 2/3 seeds causing a mess after tonight's results. It's going to be very interesting to see how the brackets turn out and it's not looking like it would be anywhere close to a 1-16 bracket integrity.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Numbers View Post

                As I write, Mass is beating Prov. So, we might see how this actually works out.

                At 6:30 EDT, March 16, UMass is a #3, but Omaha is a #4, so it's still chaos. In fact, Omaha and WMU are both #4s, so the overall 1 and 2 would have to play the #13 and #14 teams. And, overall #3 and #4 would get the AHA and CCHA champions.
                How do you figure UMass as a 3-seed? They’re 14 in the PairWise.
                Frozen Fours: '86, '88, '90, '91, '92, '93, '95, '96, '98, '00, '01, '03, '04, '05, '09, '14, '15

                Walter Brown, Agganis, Boston Garden-old/new, Matthews, McHugh, Kelly Rink, Bright, Tsongas, Lawler, Schneider, Providence CC, Alfond, Tully, Portland CC, Centrum, Whittemore, Snively, Hobey Baker Rink, Lynah, MSG, Gutterson, Houston Field House, Ingalls, Smith rink, Davis Rink, Pepsi Center, Bradley Center, St. Paul CC, Fenway, Mullins, Verizon, Joe Louis, HSBC, Nationwide, Messa, Perrotti.

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by gambs View Post

                  How do you figure UMass as a 3-seed? They’re 14 in the PairWise.
                  He posted that update before the other HE, B10 and NCHC games finished so teams moved around even more since then.

                  I would wait and see what happens to the PWR after tomorrow night's games and we should have a better picture of where teams will end up.

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                  • #39
                    I'll give my nightly stab, only thing I was debating on and pulled the trigger was flipping the locations of Quinnipiac and Minnesota games. You could do Minnesota to Sioux Falls as well.

                    Providence:

                    1. BC (1)
                    2. Quinnipiac (7)
                    3. Wisconsin (9)
                    4. Bemidji State (16)

                    Springfield (UMass host):

                    1. Denver (4)
                    2. Maine (6)
                    3. Michigan (10)
                    4. UMass (14)

                    Sioux Falls (Omaha host):

                    1. North Dakota (3)
                    2. Michigan State (5)
                    3. Omaha (12)
                    4. RIT (15)

                    Missouri:

                    1. BU (2)
                    2. Minnesota (8)
                    3. Western Michigan (11)
                    4. Colorado College (13)

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                    • #40
                      As soon as the conference quarters wrap up tomorrow the Pairwise Predictor will come online and we'll be able to predict all the games and see the results.

                      https://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/

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                      • #41
                        Two proper game threes in the NCHC with all four teams hovering the bubble. I would imagine the only known outcome is that if St. Cloud loses they are done? Can any of the other three clinch a spot with a win or officially be eliminated with a loss? Or is that not known?

                        The only other team that stands out to me is Cornell. In most year you'd think a 2nd place ECAC team at 19-6-6 would be a lock but that's how god awful the ECAC was this year. Simply beating Dartmouth won't do anything for them. They will have to win the tournament to get in.

                        UMass "safely" in the field now barring a bid stealer like Cornell?

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by J.D. View Post
                          Two proper game threes in the NCHC with all four teams hovering the bubble. I would imagine the only known outcome is that if St. Cloud loses they are done? Can any of the other three clinch a spot with a win or officially be eliminated with a loss? Or is that not known?

                          The only other team that stands out to me is Cornell. In most year you'd think a 2nd place ECAC team at 19-6-6 would be a lock but that's how god awful the ECAC was this year. Simply beating Dartmouth won't do anything for them. They will have to win the tournament to get in.

                          UMass "safely" in the field now barring a bid stealer like Cornell?
                          The only bid stealers can be one of the ECAC teams other than Quinnipiac. St Cloud to a small extent because if they win out they will probably be 13th anyway but if they lose in the championship they somehow could sneak in if everything goes their way. They are the only non autobid outside the top 14 that can get in but only at 2%. If I were a UMass fan your chances of getting in are probably better to root for Quinnipiac and to see St Cloud lose today than to count on beating BC.
                          Last edited by BC/HE; 03-17-2024, 08:55 AM.

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                          • #43
                            If the season ended after tonight's games - what a massive headache the committee would have as it's not going to be easy placing teams in regionals and the matchups as well. BC and BU basically get punished for finishing 1st and 2nd...

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                            • #44
                              The top 3 seeds could all be Hockey East. If St Cloud and Omaha win in the semis of the NCHC, Michigan wins the Big 10 and Maine wins Hockey East it ends Boston College, BU, Maine, Denver.

                              User-Specified Results
                              • CCHA Championship: Bemidji State def. Michigan Tech
                              • ECAC Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac def. St. Lawrence
                              • ECAC Semifinal #2: Dartmouth def. Cornell
                              • ECAC Championship: Quinnipiac def. Dartmouth
                              • Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College def. Massachusetts
                              • Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine def. Boston University
                              • Hockey East Championship: Maine def. Boston College
                              • Atlantic Hockey Championship: RIT def. American Int'l
                              • Big Ten Championship: Michigan def. Michigan State
                              • NCHC Semifinal #1: Omaha def. North Dakota
                              • NCHC Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State def. Denver
                              • NCHC Championship: Omaha def. St. Cloud State



                              Other results: (If any of these prove wrong, please let me know. There are permutations that I may miss)

                              I can't get Providence above 15. It appears the Friars are out.
                              St Cloud gets in with a win over Denver. Despite having a worse RPI and losing the comparison to CC, the Tigers lost to both Arizona State and Augustana, providing the margin needed for the Huskies.
                              North Dakota loses a #1 regional seed if it loses to Omaha. That result also lands Omaha a likely regional 3 seed and sends NoDak packing.
                              Last edited by ticapnews; 03-17-2024, 10:52 PM.

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                              • #45
                                I can get six NCHC teams in. Bemidji, RIT, Michigan win. BU over BC. SCSU over Omaha. QU over Dartmouth.
                                That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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