Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

2024 Pairwise and Tournament Qualification Thread

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    Oooo I didn't realize Omaha was the host in Sioux Falls. At least in the current rankings that doesn't provide much of a headache.

    Comment


    • #17
      Omaha and St Cloud have a series. St. Cloud is at home. There is a decent chance that SCSU wins that series 2-1. If so, I think it's possible that Omaha ends up a #4 seed.
      Of course, a SCSU sweep might take Omaha out of the field altogether.

      Western Michigan and CC also play each other. A sweep would be damaging for the loser.

      Mass and Prov play each other. Loser of the series is likely out.

      And, it seems Michigan is now safe.

      Seed Lines:
      #1s: BC, BU, and then, since NoDak was sweep by Omaha, it's now possible for them to fall to a #2, the last 2 #1s will go to NoDak, Den, MSU
      #2s: See above, plus Minn, Wisc, Maine and Quinn all in the mix here. Quinn gets an 'easy' series vs RPI this week, which won't help them much, and will hurt them if they don't sweep.
      #3s and #4s: All too tight to call except that everyone mentioned in the #2s line won't be a 4.

      By Conference: B10, HEA, NCHC all 4.....ECAC, AHA, CCHA all 1. Possible 5th for HEA or NCHC.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Numbers View Post
        Omaha and St Cloud have a series. St. Cloud is at home. There is a decent chance that SCSU wins that series 2-1. If so, I think it's possible that Omaha ends up a #4 seed.
        Of course, a SCSU sweep might take Omaha out of the field altogether.

        Western Michigan and CC also play each other. A sweep would be damaging for the loser.

        Mass and Prov play each other. Loser of the series is likely out.

        And, it seems Michigan is now safe.

        Seed Lines:
        #1s: BC, BU, and then, since NoDak was sweep by Omaha, it's now possible for them to fall to a #2, the last 2 #1s will go to NoDak, Den, MSU
        #2s: See above, plus Minn, Wisc, Maine and Quinn all in the mix here. Quinn gets an 'easy' series vs RPI this week, which won't help them much, and will hurt them if they don't sweep.
        #3s and #4s: All too tight to call except that everyone mentioned in the #2s line won't be a 4.

        By Conference: B10, HEA, NCHC all 4.....ECAC, AHA, CCHA all 1. Possible 5th for HEA or NCHC.
        This will be one game
        ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by brassbonanza View Post

          This will be one game
          On that note, with the likelihood that only one of these two can make the field do we think each coach might prefer the chance to sweep a best of 3 series?

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by brassbonanza View Post

            This will be one game
            Wait.....HEA quarterfinals are single game? So, the entire HEA tournament is single elimination?

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Numbers View Post

              Wait.....HEA quarterfinals are single game? So, the entire HEA tournament is single elimination?
              Correct.

              Comment


              • #22
                Not likely to happen but if a bunch of those teams on the bubble all lose and St Cloud gets swept in their 2 games but still winds up 14th would they be ineligible for the tournament because of a losing record?

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by BC/HE View Post

                  Sorry I had been going by CHN's convoluted tournament page which left an open spot after the Michigan/Notre Dame game due to game 3 of Ohio State/Wisconsin that did not take into consideration the reseeding so I thought that series was not over yet. Of course Michigan is now in over the loser of that Hockey East series. Their concern is more of outliers getting autobids. The ECAC is ripe for that should Quinnipiac lose but it may take one more from Hockey East, NCHC or B1G; all highly unlikely. I put it in as an afterthought while discussing the NCHC which now is even more helpful to Hockey East as CC lost to Denver and now must play Western Michigan at least twice.
                  If we consider a team with a current Pairwise of 16 or below as 'out of the bubble', then we already have the CCHA and AHA conference champions using up a NCAA championship slot. Could also happen with ECAC, as you have pointed out already.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Stauber1 View Post

                    At the time of the quoted post, MI had already played and swept Notre Dame.
                    The Big10 semifinals are a single game.
                    Even if MI loses its game next weekend, it's hard to see them falling below 13 by selection time. Meaning they are in a good (though not certain) position to make the tournament.
                    Has anyone run scenarios? I originally thought that Michigan might be safe too; but, looking at the pairwise, the RPI's of 10-15 are so close, and pairwise currently isn't lining up by straight RPI in that range. I'm wonder what, if any comparisons could get flipped. I'm thinking that someone other than Q wins the ECAC, so need to be at 13 to be safe. The fact those RPI's are so close make me think Michigan can't feel too safe with a loss.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      New set of realities.....
                      #1s: BC, BU, and two of NoDak, Denver, Mich State.
                      #2s: The other 1 from the first line, plus, Minnesota, and two of Quinnipiac, Maine, and Wisconsin.
                      #3s: The other 1 from the previous line, plus.......
                      HUGE LOGJAM of Michigan, CC, Omaha, Western Michigan, Providence, Mass, and SCSU.

                      With Wisconsin losing, Minnesota has to be a huge favorite for a #2. There might be some strange scenario that causes them to miss, but they play Michigan this week, just one game, and it's hard to imagine their RPI falling enough from one loss to a highly ranked team to cause them to fall below UW in the PWR.

                      Massachusetts and Providence play each other, and that is likely an elimination game, as noted by other posters above.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Omaha goes to CC. Western Michigan is going to St. Cloud.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Well, we would have absolute chaos if things ended as is. Took me a while to get to this after a few switches.

                          Providence:

                          1. BC (1)
                          2. Quinnipiac (8)
                          3. Wisconsin (9)
                          4. Bemidji State (16)

                          Springfield (UMass host):

                          1. Denver (4)
                          2. Maine (7)
                          3. Michigan (11)
                          4. Providence (13)

                          Sioux Falls (Omaha host):

                          1. BU (2)
                          2. Minnesota (6)
                          3. Colorado College (10)
                          4. Omaha (14)

                          Missouri:

                          1. North Dakota (3)
                          2. Michigan State (5)
                          3. Western Michigan (12)
                          4. RIT (15)

                          Not fair at all to BU but if the committee sticks to their stupid rule of avoiding an intra conference game in round one at all costs this is the best you could do.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            What happened last night to cause this? And what should we root for to happen to get BU back to Springfield?

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Scarlet View Post
                              What happened last night to cause this? And what should we root for to happen to get BU back to Springfield?
                              It’s really dumb but it’s because the NCAA is so rigid about not having intra conference matchups in the first round so ND can’t play Omaha or BU can’t play Providence and Omaha being the host forces BU out to Sioux Falls. The big thing you’d want as a BU fan to end up in Springfield is for Omaha to fall out of the tournament which means St Cloud continue to win. I’m not running all the game simulations but I know St Cloud getting in over Omaha would probably land BU in Springfield

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Scarlet View Post
                                What happened last night to cause this? And what should we root for to happen to get BU back to Springfield?
                                As sigx15 said, Omaha falling out of the field clarifies things, as long as UMass is also out.
                                Alternatively, if Omaha wins again, and moves up to a #3 seed, that would also allow NoDak to stay in Sioux Falls.
                                Another way is for Mich State or Minnesota to be a #1, and then they could go to Sioux Falls and play Omaha.

                                But, as I mentioned above, UMass in the field also limits BU's options.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X