Hockey East by the Numbers

[UncleRay]

only because they won after JD post

Sorry. USCHO doesn't usually update league points for a day.

[DLG]

UConn is already in front of UML.

only because they won after JD post

[UncleRay]

UConn is already in front of UML.

[J.D.]

My guess is the only change we'll see today is UConn jumping over UML

1. BU
2. Merrimack
3. NU
4. UConn
5. UML
6. Maine
7. PC
8. BC
9. UMass
10. UNH
11. UVM

[Jim F.]

Thanks to UVM sharing info with me from Hockey East, I learned that overtimes and shootouts are included as ties in determining the "regulation winning percentage" (see my discussion above). So, in a 3-way tie, BC and Maine would have the same winning percentage and better than Providence's. So Providence would get 8th and then Maine wins the remaining 2-way tiebreaker with BC based on head to head. So, BC gets 6th if and only if they win in regulation, Maine loses in regulation and Providence gets 0 or 1 point. Otherwise, Maine gets 6th unless Providence gets more points than they do, in which case Providence would get 6th. Maine wins 2 or 3 way tiebreak at any point level. BC loses tiebreak to Maine, but beats Providence. Providence loses all tiebreakers.

[Jim F.]

BU clinched 1st.

Northeastern has tiebreak over Merrimack. Whoever gets more points on Saturday gets 2nd. If they get the same points, Merrimack gets 2nd.

UConn will play Lowell as 4 vs. 5. UConn has tiebreak. Home team will be whoever does better on Saturday night. If they do the same, Lowell will be #4 and UConn #5.

BC must win in regulation to have a shot at 6th. If they do, they get 6th if Maine gets 0 points and Providence gets 0 or 1 point. If BC wins in regulation and Maine and Providence each get one point, that creates a three way tie where the tiebreaker depends on Hockey East's definition of "best regulation winning percentage" (See my last post above.)

If BC doesn't get 6th then Maine will be 6th unless Providence gets more points than Maine does on Saturday, then Providence would be 6th.

BC wins 2-way tiebreaker with Providence and loses 2-way tiebreaker with Maine.

BC's win and UMass's win locks UMass into 9th place and UNH 10th. UVM was locked into #11 on Saturday.

[Jim F.]

Does anyone know how Hockey East defines "best regulation winning percentage in all conference games"? Is it just the won-loss record in the games decided in regulation? Or does it include overtime/shootout games as ties. For example, if Maine and Providence each get exactly one point this weekend and BC wins both in regulation, there's a 3-way tie for 6th. The regulation records would be BC 9-10, Maine 8-9 and Providence 6-8. The winning percentages using only the regulation games would be .474, .471 and .429, respectively. BC would get 6th and then Maine wins the remaining 2-way tie with Providence based on head to head. But, if overtimes and shootouts are included as ties, the records become BC 9-10-5, Maine 8-9-7 and Providence 6-8-10. Then BC and Maine both have the same winning percentage (.479). Providence would get 8th with their lower winning percentage (.458). Then Maine wins the 2-way tiebreak with BC based on head to head.

[Jim F.]

A quick correction to Sean's post from Sunday. The Lowell tiebreakers at 38 points depend on whether they get there with two ot/so losses or one ot/so win and a regulation loss. UConn can finish 7th. If UConn loses two in regulation, Providence and Maine win two in regulation and Lowell loses twice in overtime, there is a 4-way tie. Maine gets 4th with the best regulation record 10-8. Then, in the remaining 3-way tie, UConn loses the tiebreaker with their 8-8 regulation record vs. 8-7 for both Providence and Lowell. Then Lowell wins the remaining 2-way tie with Providence based on head to head. Would have written earlier, but I just got admitted today.

[Split-N]

...Two points for a win, one for a tie, none for a loss. Doesn't need anything extra that.

I typed the tiebreaker procedure into BingAI. Sydney, the snarky chatbot, responded that something like that could only have been produced by artificial intelligence.

[Chuck Murray]

I was attempting to read through and wrap my head around the tiebreaker procedure for seeding in Hockey East this season, since it has the potential to directly impact my team. But holy hell, it's so convoluted and confusing. This is why we should just have W-L-T. Two points for a win, one for a tie, none for a loss. Dosen't need anything extra than that.

Agreed 110%.

[amkirby10]

I was attempting to read through and wrap my head around the tiebreaker procedure for seeding in Hockey East this season, since it has the potential to directly impact my team. But holy hell, it's so convoluted and confusing. This is why we should just have W-L-T. Two points for a win, one for a tie, none for a loss. Dosen't need anything extra than that.

[Sean Pickett]

I started to write an update last week, but I was busy and ran out of time. There is just one weekend left in the regular season, with a lot still on the line.

BU regained first with a regulation sweep at Vermont and they can finish between 1st and 3rd. They end the season with a home-and-home with Providence. A 3 point weekend guarantees them at least second, while a 5+ point weekend clinches winning the regular season.

Merrimack moved into second with a regulation sweep of UML and they can finish between 1st and 3rd. They end the season hosting Vermont for a single game, so they will need help to finish 1st or 2nd.

NU fell to third with a split with UMass and they can finish between 1st and 3rd. They end the season with a home-and-home with UML. A 4 point weekend guarantees them a tie for second and the #2 seed.

UConn only played one game, defeating UNH. Coupled with UML being swept in regulation they are now fourth and have the inside track for the final quarterfinal home ice spot. They can finish 4th, in a tie for 4th or in a tie for 5th. They play a home-and-home with BC and can clinch a tie for fourth with UML and the #4 seed with a 4 point weekend. If they are swept they could end in a 2, 3 or 4 way tie for either 4th or 5th. If I understand the tiebreakers correctly in a 4-way tie for 4th with UML, PC and Maine UConn will be the #6 seed. In a 3-way tie for 4th or 5th with PC and Maine UConn will be either the #6 seed (if tied for 4th) or the #7 seed (if tied for 5th). In a 2-way tie with Maine or PC at 4th or 5th, UConn will be the higher seed.

UML was swept by Merrimack, dropping them to fifth and giving a terrific blow to their hopes of clinching quarterfinal home ice. They can finish between 4th and 7th. They play a home-and-home with NU and can clinch at least 5th and the first round bye with a 3 point weekend.

Providence was off and is now tied with Maine for sixth. They can finish between 4th (tie) and 8th. They play a home-and-home with BU. In a 2-way tie for fourth with UConn they would be the #5 seed, in a 3-way tie with UConn and Maine they would be the #5 seed, in a 3-way tie with UConn and UML they would be the #4 seed, and in a 4-way tie with UConn, Maine and UML they would be the #5 seed.

Maine swept BC in regulation and is now tied with PC for sixth. They can finish between 4th (tie) and 8th. They host UMass for a 2 game series. In a 2-way tie for fourth with UConn they would be the #5 seed, in a 3-way tie with UConn and PC they would be the #4 seed, in a 3-way tie with UConn and UML they would be the #4 seed, and in a 4-way tie with UConn, PC and UML they would be the #4 seed.

BC was swept in regulation at Maine and is now eighth and can finish between 6th and 9th. They play a home-and-home with UConn. A 1 point weekend guarantees them a tie for 8th and the #8 seed.

UNH was crushed by UConn in their single game and is now ninth and can finish 9th or 10th. They host UVM for a single game on Thursday. Regardless of the outcome they will need to wait until UMass plays Friday and Saturday to learn where they will finish in the standings.

UMass split on the weekend and is now tenth. They play 2 at Maine and can finish between 8th and 10th.

UVM was swept by BU in regulation and are now locked into 11th. They play single games at UNH and Merrimack.


Note: All my tiebreaker scenarios are based on my understanding of the tiebreakers as published on the Hockey East website and may be wrong.

Sean

[Sean Pickett]

This weekend there are four 2 game series, plus a single game between NU and UVM.

BU vs Merrimack: This series between 2 of the top 3 teams in the standings is important to both teams. BU has only played 2 Beanpot games in the past 2 weeks, losing both, while Merrimack has been completely off since 2 overtime losses 2 weeks ago. For BU remaing in first place and clinching quarterfinal home ice is on the line; for MC getting back on track and solidifying their chances of quarterfinal home ice is on the line.

UML vs PC: This series is between 2 teams fighting for quarterfinal home ice, although PC will need help. Both have a chance to pass UConn and move into the top 4 with a regulation sweep, although a sweep is not critical for UML while it is for PC.

Maine at UNH: This series between 2 long-time rivals may be the most important one between them in a decade. Both are playing well coming into the weekend and both are playing for something. Maine is fighting for the #5 seed and a first round bye (with some help) and possibly even quarterfinal home ice (with even more help). UNH is fighting for first round home ice, although with just 4 games remaing they will need help. Both teams realistically need 2 regulation wins this weekend to reach those goals.

BC vs UMass: This series is between 2 teams fighting for first round home ice. If either team gets a regulation sweep they will be in the driver's seat for hosting a first round game, possibly against the loser.

NU at UVM: NU is coming off another Beanpot Championship and needs to be wary of a let down. That said, NU will also want to build upon that win. UVM is mostly likely finishing 10th or 11th, so they are playing for pride, confidence and a foundation to build on next season.

Sean

[Sean Pickett]

I started this thread 2 weeks ago, probably a little early. In that time there has been limited movement in the standings despite several opportuinities by teams to make moves. The biggest changes have been in the thresholds: the quarterfinal home ice cutoff dropped from 51 to 45 points; the #5 seed and bye cutoff dropped from 49 to 44 points; and the first round home ice cutoff dropped from 40 to 36 points.

BU played just one game, but took all 3 points and was able to remain in first as the teams behind them all stumbled. They now have 41 points and 6 games remaining: 2 vs MC, 2 at UVM, and 2 vs PC. They can finish between 1st and 7th, but can clinch quarterfinal home ice by taking 4 points from their remaining games.

NU played three games, but only took 6 points and was unable to overtake BU for first. They now have 40 points and 5 games remaining: at UVM, 2 vs UMass, and 2 vs UML. They can finish between 1st and 7th, but can clinch quarterfinal home ice by taking 5 points from their remaining games.

Merrimack played two games, but only took 2 points, as they fell back from a tie for second into 3rd. They now have 36 points and 5 games remaining: 2 vs BU, 2 vs UML, and UVM. They can finish between 1st and 7th, but can clinch quarterfinal home ice by taking 9 points from their remaining games.

UConn played 3 games, but only took 3 points, remaining in 4th. They now have 35 points and 3 games remaining: UNH and 2 vs BC. They can finish between 1st and 8th, but can clinch at least the #5 seed and bye by taking all 9 remaining points available to them.

UMass Lowell played 3 games, but only took 4 points, remaining in 5th. They now have 32 points and 6 games remaining: 2 each vs PC, MC, and NU. They can finish between 1st and 9th, but can clinch quarterfinal home ice by taking 13 points from their remaining games.

Providence played 3 games, taking just 4 points and remaing in 6th. They now have 30 points and 4 games remaining: 2 each vs UML and BU. They can finish between 1st and 10th and can clinch first round home ice by taking 6 points from their remaining games.

Maine played 4 games, taking half the points, 6, and moving up one spot, to 7th. They now have 24 points and 6 games remaining: 2 at UNH, and 2 each vs BC and UMass at home. They can finish between 2nd and 11th and can clinch first round home ice by taking 12 points from their remaining games.

Boston College played 3 games, taking just 1 point and dropping one spot, to 8th. They now have 21 points and 6 games remaining: 2 each vs UMass, at Maine, and UConn. They can finish between 3rd and 11th and can clinch first round home ice by taking 15 points from their remaining games.

UMass played 3 games, taking 7 points and moving up one spot to 9th. They now have 19 points and 6 games remaining: 2 each vs BC, NU, and at Maine. They can finish between 4th and 11th and can clinch first round home ice by taking 17 points from their remaining games.

New Hampshire played 4 games, taking 10 points and moving into a tie for 9th. They now have 19 points and 4 games remaining: 2 vs Maine, at UConn, and UVM. They can finish between 6th and 11th but will need help to clinch first round home ice.

Vermont played 3 games, taking just 2 points and dropping into the basement. They now have 15 points with 5 games remaining: NU, 2 vs BU, at UNH, and at MC. They can finish between 7th and 11th, but will need help to clinch first round home ice.

Sean

[Sean Pickett]

There was only one game Sunday, Maine at UMass Lowell. The outcome of the game had only one impact, solidifying the #5 seed and bye cutline at 44 points for now.

Upcoming series next weekend may have major impacts on the standings, depending on whether or not there are any sweeps. I plan to post about the games later this week.

Sean