Latest pairwise rankings

[Fighting Sioux 23]

With Penn State coming in at #8 in the PWR, I don't think the committee has any choice but to send Denver (I mean the overall #3 seed) there. Minnesota obviously goes to Fargo. Quinnipiac goes the Bridgeport. There is a new rule which prohibits the committee from moving any team more than two spots within its seeding band. That means that they can't take PSU, at #8, and treat them like the #5. The most they can do is treat them like a #6. So, the 3rd seed has to go to Allentown.

Interesting. I wasn't aware of that change. There is an outside chance St. Cloud gets to #5. Would that mean they couldn't go to Fargo?

[Numbers]

Interesting. I wasn't aware of that change. There is an outside chance St. Cloud gets to #5. Would that mean they couldn't go to Fargo?

I think that is correct.

[Numbers]

Actually, I have been thinking about the committee's process a bit, and the more I think of it, the more it seems to make sense to me.

What the committee uses the PWR for is to give an objective measuring stick when there is otherwise only a fine, indistinguishable line between teams. So, for example, a few years ago, UMD qualified by .0001 or even less, or Minnesota. Really, there is no difference that any person would recognize between the teams. But, the committee uses the PWR as a measuring stick.

However, the committee is then faced with the realities of hockey. It is a tight margin game. One of the margins which is granted to home teams is "last player change". In NCAA tournament play, the higher seeded team is designated the home team, and has the right of last change.

In some years, the range of, say 7-11 in the RPI (and in the PWR) is so tight that it amounts to less than 1/2 game of results. There is no way to distingish that, and some people might say "Hey, there isn't any difference. So, if the tournament can be made better in attendance or in novelty of matchups, just shuffle the teams to make it so." However, moving someone from 10 to 8, or from 8 to 9, changes their band, and thus changes their home/road status.

And, the committee doesn't want to do that. So, they adhere to the PWR perhaps more tightly than is actually necessary.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

I think that is correct.

Yikes. So, here is one scenario: SCSU, Minnesota, Minnesota State, Merrimack, Colgate, and Canisius win. That gives the following Pairwise Rankings:

1. Minnesota
2. Quinnipiac
3. Denver
4. Michigan
5. St. Cloud State
6. Boston University
7. Harvard
8. Penn State
9. Ohio State
10. Merrimack
11. Michigan Tech
12. Minnesota State
13. Western Michigan
14. Cornell
15. Colgate
16. Canisius

Minnesota to Fargo.
Quinnipiac to Bridgeport
Denver to Allentown
Michigan to Manchester

Pure serpentine leads to:

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
8. Penn State vs. 9. Ohio State

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 15. Colgate
7. Harvard vs. 10. Merrimack

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 14. Cornell
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 13. Western Michigan
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

This doesn't work because Penn State has to be in Allentown. The question then becomes, do we just move that whole bracket to Allentown? If the goal is to protect the #1, then no. If we can only have Penn State lined up against the #1, #2, or #3 overall seeds, then the only real option is to swap the BU-Tech and PSU-OSU matchups. That gives us:

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 15. Colgate
7. Harvard vs. 10. Merrimack

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 14. Cornell
8. Penn State vs. 9. Ohio State

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 13. Western Michigan
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

Next, we have some intra-conference matchups to fix. We can't have QU vs. Colgate. We can't have QU vs Cornell or Denver vs. Western Michigan either. Western Michigan has to play QU. The next question is do we also move Cornell to make it more equal? Perhaps...but let's wait for now. The other intra-conference matchup is Penn State vs. Ohio State. The easy flip is Ohio State and Merrimack. So, that gives us...

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 13. Western Michigan
7. Harvard vs. 9. Ohio State

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 14. Cornell
8. Penn State vs. 10. Merrimack

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 15. Colgate
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

Okay. We've protected the #1, placed all the hosts in their regionals, and have avoided intra-conference matchups. Now, what can be done to improve attendance. Does Cornell put more butts in the seats in Manchester than Colgate? I would presume so, but I would also defer to our east coast fans. It also "rewards" Denver over Michigan for being a higher overall 1 seed. I'd love to put St. Cloud in Fargo, but the new rule doesn't allow it. But, what about Minnesota State? Fargo doesn't need any help attendance wise, so I'm inclined to leave it be...plus, the committee hasn't really cared much about saving flights recently. So, my bracket in this scenario would be:

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 13. Western Michigan
7. Harvard vs. 9. Ohio State

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 15. Colgate
8. Penn State vs. 10. Merrimack

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 14. Cornell
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

So, you're treating BU as the #8 (from the #6), Tech as the #9 (from the #11), Western Michigan as the #15 (from the #13), Ohio State as the #10 (from the #9), Colgate as the #14 (from the #15), Penn State as the #6 (from the #8), Merrimack as the #11 (from the #10), and Cornell as the #13 (from the #14). That's a lot of changes.

Whew...hopefully this scenario doesn't play itself out.

[Numbers]

Yikes. So, here is one scenario: SCSU, Minnesota, Minnesota State, Merrimack, Colgate, and Canisius win. That gives the following Pairwise Rankings:

1. Minnesota
2. Quinnipiac
3. Denver
4. Michigan
5. St. Cloud State
6. Boston University
7. Harvard
8. Penn State
9. Ohio State
10. Merrimack
11. Michigan Tech
12. Minnesota State
13. Western Michigan
14. Cornell
15. Colgate
16. Canisius

Minnesota to Fargo.
Quinnipiac to Bridgeport
Denver to Allentown
Michigan to Manchester

Pure serpentine leads to:

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
8. Penn State vs. 9. Ohio State

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 15. Colgate
7. Harvard vs. 10. Merrimack

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 14. Cornell
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 13. Western Michigan
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

This doesn't work because Penn State has to be in Allentown. The question then becomes, do we just move that whole bracket to Allentown? If the goal is to protect the #1, then no. If we can only have Penn State lined up against the #1, #2, or #3 overall seeds, then the only real option is to swap the BU-Tech and PSU-OSU matchups. That gives us:

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 15. Colgate
7. Harvard vs. 10. Merrimack

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 14. Cornell
8. Penn State vs. 9. Ohio State

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 13. Western Michigan
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

Next, we have some intra-conference matchups to fix. We can't have QU vs. Colgate. We can't have QU vs Cornell or Denver vs. Western Michigan either. Western Michigan has to play QU. The next question is do we also move Cornell to make it more equal? Perhaps...but let's wait for now. The other intra-conference matchup is Penn State vs. Ohio State. The easy flip is Ohio State and Merrimack. So, that gives us...

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 13. Western Michigan
7. Harvard vs. 9. Ohio State

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 14. Cornell
8. Penn State vs. 10. Merrimack

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 15. Colgate
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

Okay. We've protected the #1, placed all the hosts in their regionals, and have avoided intra-conference matchups. Now, what can be done to improve attendance. Does Cornell put more butts in the seats in Manchester than Colgate? I would presume so, but I would also defer to our east coast fans. It also "rewards" Denver over Michigan for being a higher overall 1 seed. I'd love to put St. Cloud in Fargo, but the new rule doesn't allow it. But, what about Minnesota State? Fargo doesn't need any help attendance wise, so I'm inclined to leave it be...plus, the committee hasn't really cared much about saving flights recently. So, my bracket in this scenario would be:

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 13. Western Michigan
7. Harvard vs. 9. Ohio State

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 15. Colgate
8. Penn State vs. 10. Merrimack

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 14. Cornell
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

So, you're treating BU as the #8 (from the #6), Tech as the #9 (from the #11), Western Michigan as the #15 (from the #13), Ohio State as the #10 (from the #9), Colgate as the #14 (from the #15), Penn State as the #6 (from the #8), Merrimack as the #11 (from the #10), and Cornell as the #13 (from the #14). That's a lot of changes.

Whew...hopefully this scenario doesn't play itself out.

Personally, I hope it does. I like seeing people squirm in their little world.

But, in truth, my ideal bracket is that Northern Michigan wins, (I hate Mankato), and Colgate and CC both lose, so that Alaska gets in. Do the bracket however you want. I don't care. Alaska in and Mankato out. I would like that.

[Speed Kills]

Holy Cross is also a 7 seed so with their game being first tonight it would mean CC could become the 8th team. Minnesota fans will love to be reminded of playing Holy Cross in North Dakota.

This Minnesota fan would love nothing more than to see the Gophers face Holy Cross in North Dakota. What better way to start a National Championship run than by exorcizing an old demon?

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Personally, I hope it does. I like seeing people squirm in their little world.

But, in truth, my ideal bracket is that Northern Michigan wins, (I hate Mankato), and Colgate and CC both lose, so that Alaska gets in. Do the bracket however you want. I don't care. Alaska in and Mankato out. I would like that.

I'd like to see CC make it...but in general chaos is fun to see play out, particularly with newish blood in the tournament. Perhaps a Michigan Tech, Western Michigan, Northern Michigan, and Michigan Frozen Four to go with it, with Western taking their first crown? That would be entertaining to see.

[Bronco]

I'd like to see CC make it...but in general chaos is fun to see play out, particularly with newish blood in the tournament. Perhaps a Michigan Tech, Western Michigan, Northern Michigan, and Michigan Frozen Four to go with it, with Western taking their first crown? That would be entertaining to see.

Subscribe.

[J.D.]

does this Gopher analyst not know how offside works? the play they keep talking about is not offside.

[J.D.]

Cry some more about the refs

[Numbers]

Colgate kills Alaska's dream. If CC wins, Denver hangs on to #3 by slim margin. Likely brackets:
Fargo: 1-Minn v 16-Canisius, 6-SCSU v 9-Ohio State
Bridgeport: 2-Quinnipiac v 14-Merrimack (15-CC), 7-Harvard v 11-Minnesota State
Allentown: 3-Michigan(Denver) v 15-Colgate (14-Colgate), 8-Penn State v 10-Michigan Tech
Manchester: 4-Denver(Michigan) v 13-Cornell, 5-BU v 12-Western Michigan

There is the possibility of switching Cornell and Colgate, because Cornell can drive to Allentown.

[Numbers]

With just one result left to be determined, I think the bracket shakes out something like this (rankings in parentheses are if CC comes back and beats SCSU)

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
6. (7) St. Cloud State vs. 11. Minnesota State

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 14. Merrimack (or 15. Colorado College)
7. (6) Harvard vs. 9. Ohio State

Allentown
3. Michigan vs. 15. (14) Colgate
8. Penn State vs. 10. Michigan Tech

Manchester
4. Denver vs. 13. Cornell
5. Boston University vs. 12. Western Michigan

I get Mich and Den swapping places also if CC wins. And, I like yours better than mine. Only difference is you and I have Ohio State and Minn State swapped. but, for travel, and also inter-Minnesota intrigue, Minn State at Fargo makes a lot of sense.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Colgate kills Alaska's dream. If CC wins, Denver hangs on to #3 by slim margin. Likely brackets:
Fargo: 1-Minn v 16-Canisius, 6-SCSU v 9-Ohio State
Bridgeport: 2-Quinnipiac v 14-Merrimack (15-CC), 7-Harvard v 11-Minnesota State
Allentown: 3-Michigan(Denver) v 15-Colgate (14-Colgate), 8-Penn State v 10-Michigan Tech
Manchester: 4-Denver(Michigan) v 13-Cornell, 5-BU v 12-Western Michigan

There is the possibility of switching Cornell and Colgate, because Cornell can drive to Allentown.

I think Minnesota State goes to Fargo and Ohio State goes to Bridgeport. Other than that, I think you are spot on.

[J.D.]

So the baseline if SCSU wins?

Fargo:

1. Minnesota (1)
2. Harvard (7)
3. Ohio State (9)
4. Canisius (16)

Allentown:

1. Michigan (3)
2. Penn State (8)
3. Michigan Tech (10)
4. Colgate (15)

Bridgeport:

1. Quinnipiac (2)
2. St. Cloud State (6)
3. Minnesota State (11)
4. Merrimack (14)

Manchester:

1. Denver (4)
2. BU (5)
3. Western Michigan (12)
4. Cornell (13)

[Carmine Scarpaglia]

does this Gopher analyst not know how offside works? the play they keep talking about is not offside.

Absolutely amazing to watch them slo mo that for almost 2 full minutes. Like, this is a basic delayed offside with no Michigan player touching the puck in the zone until it was cleared. What is the mystery here?