Latest pairwise rankings

[StateofHockey78]

Some crazy possibilities after this weekend. My first big observations - Minnesota State could be out of the tournament should they lose to NMU and there's one other upset in either the NCHC, HEA, or if by some miracle Colgate wins. HEA still has a chance to get 3 teams in if Merrimack wins their first game and Providence wins out.

I think we are going to see upsets. I like NMU's chances the way they are playing right now, not that it's easy to go to MN St. and win. I also think there's a decent chance the winner of Merrimack/Mass-Lowell could win the HEA. Lastly, someone please beat North Dakota, because I hate the idea of the #4 getting a home game against the #1 even though that would bring extreme drama in that regional.

Looks like the top 3 spots in the Pairwise are now a lock.

What the heck happened to Western? Seems like after Denver came in and popped their balloon they've fallen flat.

[bruinsfan11]

Committee will just move Minnesota to Allentown (most likely) to play Canisius/Holy Cross if that happens.

Protects the 1v16 integrity and Penn State being 8 or 9 makes the most sense. Not ideal since they’re also hosting but it’s by far the easiest solution if NDakota backs in.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Committee will just move Minnesota to Allentown (most likely) to play Canisius/Holy Cross if that happens.

Protects the 1v16 integrity and Penn State being 8 or 9 makes the most sense. Not ideal since they’re also hosting but it’s by far the easiest solution if NDakota backs in.

FWIW, North Dakota could still get a #3 seed.

[StateofHockey78]

Committee will just move Minnesota to Allentown (most likely) to play Canisius/Holy Cross if that happens.

Protects the 1v16 integrity and Penn State being 8 or 9 makes the most sense. Not ideal since they’re also hosting but it’s by far the easiest solution if NDakota backs in.

That's what I think "should" happen, but somewhere deep down I know the committee would love to see that ND v MN matchup

[StateofHockey78]

FWIW, North Dakota could still get a #3 seed.

how's that? I've gotten them up to 16 with all the "likely" to happen scenarios. What did you find that puts them there?

[StateofHockey78]

Committee will just move Minnesota to Allentown (most likely) to play Canisius/Holy Cross if that happens.

Protects the 1v16 integrity and Penn State being 8 or 9 makes the most sense. Not ideal since they’re also hosting but it’s by far the easiest solution if NDakota backs in.

The other reality is, MN still has to win against Michigan to lock in the #1 spot. A loss and a QU tourney win flips the pairwise and then the 1 v 16 would no longer be an issue for the committee with QU playing at a more easterly site.

[J.D.]

That's what I think "should" happen, but somewhere deep down I know the committee would love to see that ND v MN matchup

They would but they don't need Minnesota for attendance at that point. Leaving #1 overall to play UND in Fargo would be criminal.

[StateofHockey78]

They would but they don't need Minnesota for attendance at that point. Leaving #1 overall to play UND in Fargo would be criminal.

agree there are no attendance issues ever in ND, it always sells out or close to it.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

how's that? I've gotten them up to 16 with all the "likely" to happen scenarios. What did you find that puts them there?

Lots of lower ranked teams winning their conference tournaments. UND would be 16 in the Pairwise, but would be ranked 12 of the qualified teams (and thus a 3 seed). Very unlikely (including for North Dakota to win the NCHC), but still possible.

[BC/HE]

It appears the 4 bands are almost completely set. Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Denver and Michigan will be 1 seeds. BU, Harvard, St. Cloud and Penn State will be the 2's. Ohio State, Michigan Tech and Western Michigan will be 3's. Cornell will be the final 3 with a caveat that they still could be out with 3 upset winners unless some kind of miracle unfolds where they lose and Merrimack wins Hockey East and all kinds of other games fall in place. The Atlantic Hockey winner will be a 4 and the overall 16 seed. The CCHA winner will be a 4 as well. That leaves 2 4th band spots. Merrimack's chances of a spot increase greatly with a win over Lowell which in turn hurt Alaska's chances. Of course 3 upsets are possible which could in turn remove everyone else from Cornell down.

[BC/HE]

Lots of lower ranked teams winning their conference tournaments. UND would be 16 in the Pairwise, but would be ranked 12 of the qualified teams (and thus a 3 seed). Very unlikely (including for North Dakota to win the NCHC), but still possible.

That's true and the same can be said for Providence and Lowell. They would be a 3 band if they win and if all of Colgate, Colorado College and Northern Michigan win their tournaments.

[StateofHockey78]

Lots of lower ranked teams winning their conference tournaments. UND would be 16 in the Pairwise, but would be ranked 12 of the qualified teams (and thus a 3 seed). Very unlikely (including for North Dakota to win the NCHC), but still possible.

well that explains why it didn't come up for me. I didn't consider the impossible when running the predictor lol.

[StateofHockey78]

It appears the 4 bands are almost completely set. Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Denver and Michigan will be 1 seeds. BU, Harvard, St. Cloud and Penn State will be the 2's. Ohio State, Michigan Tech and Western Michigan will be 3's. Cornell will be the final 3 with a caveat that they still could be out with 3 upset winners unless some kind of miracle unfolds where they lose and Merrimack wins Hockey East and all kinds of other games fall in place. The Atlantic Hockey winner will be a 4 and the overall 16 seed. The CCHA winner will be a 4 as well. That leaves 2 4th band spots. Merrimack's chances of a spot increase greatly with a win over Lowell which in turn hurt Alaska's chances. Of course 3 upsets are possible which could in turn remove everyone else from Cornell down.

Michigan can still be flipped by BU and Harvard if they lose and games break right.

[BC/HE]

Michigan can still be flipped by BU and Harvard if they lose and games break right.

I was going by the CHN Pairwise Probabilty Matrix Pairwise Probability Matrix : College Hockey News but plugging in some games in the predictor you are right. The same can be said about the 3rd band getting Minnesota State in as one.

[StateofHockey78]

I was going by the CHN Pairwise Probabilty Matrix Pairwise Probability Matrix : College Hockey News but plugging in some games in the predictor you are right. The same can be said about the 3rd band getting Minnesota State in as one.

yea I had done the same thing using CHN, until I realized they use a different formula in their matrix which incorporates KRACH into their equation. One thing, I don't think the predictor accounts for the values of any OT games where teams are hosting like MN v Mich for example. Not sure how much that could create variation in the results either.