RPI 2022-23: Return of the Schmidt and the Fans

[Ralph Baer]

The correlation coefficient is about .503497. If I leave out Yale (thus no 2 in women and 11 in men), I get .778195. So you are correct. For anyone who doesn't know this, 1.0 is perfect correlation, 0.0 is completely random, and -1.0 is perfect negative correlation, that is 1 in one list is 12 in the other, 2 is 11, etc.

I will try to remember to calculate this weekly.

Well, it's been two weeks. The correlation coefficient has gone down to 0.35664. Without Yale, it is 0.763636. Yale moving to #12 and #1 had a big effect.

[troyboy]

fishcore12's ability to cut out all the noise and drill down to the core(pun intended) issue is quite honestly stunning !!!

[troyboy]

I knew fishcore 12 wasn't buying that correlation coefficient malarkey !

[Engineers]

As for this season, I think we knew that goals would be a challenge. Injuries have also an issue and guys have been playing banged up: one player broke a bone in his foot in the first month of the season, but he's always out there. The goaltending hasn't been at the same level as last year and that's hurt them badly. The defensive lapses are frustrating and not helping the goaltenders.

My personal opinion is that Ben Barr was not hired because he struck the decision makers as not much different than the person he was replacing: a good recruiter from successful programs, but no head coaching or NHL assistant experience. That might have been the wrong decision in the long run, but I can understand why the school was looking for a different profile after Appert.

Dave Smith was starting to turn things around and I don't think you can overstate how this program has been set back by the decision to completely prevent the team from practicing in 20-21, after the team was on fire in March 2020. This harmed recruiting and led to some departures that would have been avoided otherwise. I don't think that Ben Barr would be doing much better in that environment.

There are some structural issues here as well that might be harder to address. It's a tough moment to make investments in facilities unless some generous alumni appear. The new transfer and NIL rules add a new dynamic that requires schools in the same position as RPI to make some uncomfortable decisions. Down the road at Siena, the school has endorsed an alumni-formed collective that tries organize sponsorship opportunities for student athletes. While that is creative, that also creates a variety of other issues that a school might want to avoid.

He has a .381 winning percentage at Rensselaer. I think you can overstate the 2020 season cause it was 3 years ago. The dude has a .381 percentage. He can’t recruit top players. Did covid help us no but it’s time to move on from 1 winning season like it justifies all the other poor seasons under him. Acting like we won the Super Bowl when we won 17 games is a little ridiculous. Actually if you look at the body of work he’s regressing as a head coach. So we have a regressing coach here. But yeah 2020 was a good year lol

[DavidNardolillo]

He has a .381 winning percentage at Rensselaer. I think you can overstate the 2020 season cause it was 3 years ago. The dude has a .381 percentage. He can’t recruit top players. Did covid help us no but it’s time to move on from 1 winning season like it justifies all the other poor seasons under him. Acting like we won the Super Bowl when we won 17 games is a little ridiculous. Actually if you look at the body of work he’s regressing as a head coach. So we have a regressing coach here. But yeah 2020 was a good year lol

I don't think anyone on this page "acted like we won the Super Bowl" in 2020 but I think the head coach deserves to be cut some slack after the administration canceled a season and, unlike other schools, prevented the team from even practicing. It also wasn't Smith's fault that the administration held him in limbo over his contract for a year.

In addition, RPI has had a total of 8 winning seasons out of the last 21 under 3 different coaches--that points to some issues bigger than who is behind the bench.

[blue1924]

Not a big poster here, and certainly haven't been following the team as long as some of you. I have been following pretty heavily for almost 10 years now since I was a freshman, so I only have 1 former coach to compare Smith to.

Even in those first years Smith years when the record wasn't as good, I was a huge supporter of him, and especially his ability to develop players. Even when they weren't winning games, it looked like and felt to me that they were doing a lot right. Then when 2020 came, I thought like most of you that we had turned the corner and were set to continue winning ways moving forward. Last season, I was pleasantly surprised with the way the team played, especially at the end of the year. We should have won that series against the team that went on to win the league.

I did not have a lot of faith again coming into this year. I think that first line (and especially Ture Linden) carried this team last season. I think we all may have forgotten after the good start this team had against weak opponents, but this team only returned about 30% of its goals (34/114) and 33% of its total points (102/306). Only 4 players that returned had a positive +/- last year, and only one of those more than a +2 (Jack Agnew at +4).

This was going to be a down year for this team unless people made huge jumps for the freshman somehow filled the shoes of our top forward line and top defense pair that all departed. This isn't to say I am not disappointed and confused on how the team could possibly be 0-12 away from home. But there have been some plusses. I have been thoroughly impressed with what I have seen from some of the freshman, namely Muzzati, Evans and Smolinski.

Not to say I am in love with everything this coaching staff has done. I really hate the way they play the powerplay. I was screaming in my head in the stands last weekend during that full 2 minutes of 5 on 3 against SLU where they just took ****ty shots from the outside. But, I am not ready to give up on this coaching staff yet, even with the way this year has gone.

[RPI67]

Not a big poster here, and certainly haven't been following the team as long as some of you. I have been following pretty heavily for almost 10 years now since I was a freshman, so I only have 1 former coach to compare Smith to.

Even in those first years Smith years when the record wasn't as good, I was a huge supporter of him, and especially his ability to develop players. Even when they weren't winning games, it looked like and felt to me that they were doing a lot right. Then when 2020 came, I thought like most of you that we had turned the corner and were set to continue winning ways moving forward. Last season, I was pleasantly surprised with the way the team played, especially at the end of the year. We should have won that series against the team that went on to win the league.

I did not have a lot of faith again coming into this year. I think that first line (and especially Ture Linden) carried this team last season. I think we all may have forgotten after the good start this team had against weak opponents, but this team only returned about 30% of its goals (34/114) and 33% of its total points (102/306). Only 4 players that returned had a positive +/- last year, and only one of those more than a +2 (Jack Agnew at +4).

This was going to be a down year for this team unless people made huge jumps for the freshman somehow filled the shoes of our top forward line and top defense pair that all departed. This isn't to say I am not disappointed and confused on how the team could possibly be 0-12 away from home. But there have been some plusses. I have been thoroughly impressed with what I have seen from some of the freshman, namely Muzzati, Evans and Smolinski.

Not to say I am in love with everything this coaching staff has done. I really hate the way they play the powerplay. I was screaming in my head in the stands last weekend during that full 2 minutes of 5 on 3 against SLU where they just took ****ty shots from the outside. But, I am not ready to give up on this coaching staff yet, even with the way this year has gone.

Thanks for the update about +/-. PP I think has given up 6 shorties.

[blue1924]

That was +/- from last season. This season, there is only 1 player with a positive +/- and that is Strom at +4. Other than Strom and Dylan Davies (who is even), everyone on the team has a negative +/-

[Ralph Baer]

I will throw in my inflation-degraded 2 cents. I am not impressed with the team's performance this season, but as blue1924 wrote, not much was expected. I do see positive signs, and if Smith can keep the portal losses to a minimum, we should be considerably better next year. I am certainly not nearly as down on him as I was with his predecessor in his last few years. We may indeed been better off with Ben Barr as the coach, but considering the hand that Smith has been dealt, I am not writing him off. And also, we do have some more very good recruits in the pipeline -- not top-tier, but we can't change things around in one year.

[RPIPuzzleGuy]

Just to add a data point from a rare poster... over the years I have to say my optimism has been whittled down to basically nil. We haven't made so much as a league semifinal since I set foot on campus in fall 2002, and at this point I simply don't expect us to be nationally relevant ever again. I hang on in the hopes that I'm wrong, or at least that they'll give me an enjoyable moment here and there.

[engineerhockeyfan]

Until this season, the team seemed to be buying into Smith's system.
However, this team is in disarray. Play in the defensive zone is awful. Blind passes that set up opposition goals is a regular feature in our games.
The goaltending has been a disappointment lately, and scoring has never been a strong suit.
While there is nothing that can be done to increase the scoring (just not enough talent), the rest of it is on the coach.
If these guys are healthy, then they must have just lost focus. And it is up to the coaches to fix that.
The biggest problem is that we seem to be having this conversation every few years.
Lets finish out this season and see where we go from here.

[blue1924]

I went ahead and did some math on goals scoring/goals against as a basis to judge the last 5 years. Just calculated average goals for and against per game to get an average goal differential, and did this for each of the ECAC squads over these 5 seasons (threw out 20-21 for everyone even if they played). So the number right is a rank out of 60 possible seasons.

Year	Goals/Game (Avg)	Goals Against/Game (Avg)	Average Goal Differential	Rank Among Last 5 Seasons for ECAC Schools
22-23 (In Progress)	2.46	3.42	-0.96	43
21-22	2.59	2.70	-0.11	31
19-20	2.79	2.56	0.24	23
18-19	1.92	3.08	-1.17	49
17-18	1.97	3.49	-1.51	54

A Couple things I noted from doing this:

Something we all know, but the defense has been the problem this year. The 3.42 goals/against per game is the 6th highest of the 60 seasons.
If Jack Watson's SV% stays as is for the rest of the year (0.888), it would be the lowest for an RPI starter in a season since Andrew Martin in 04/05 (0.885).

Adding up all the rankings for each team and they lineup like this:

Team	Overall Points	Best Season	Worst Season
Cornell	42	3 (19-20)	15 (21-22)
QPac	54	1 (22-23)	26 (17-18)
Harvard	66	6 (22-23)	18 (17-18)
Clarkson	67	7 (17-18)	28 (22-23)
Colgate	158	19 (22-23)	55 (18-19)
Union	175	20 (17-18)	52 (19-20)
Princeton	192	17 (17-18)	58 (21-22)
RPI	200	23 (19-20)	54 (17-18)
Yale	203	27 (17-18)	57 (22-23)
Dartmouth	208	32 (18-19)	53 (21-22)
Brown	216	30 (22-23)	56 (21-22)
SLU	429	38 (22-23)	60 (18-19)

[sezenack]

Just to add a data point from a rare poster... over the years I have to say my optimism has been whittled down to basically nil. We haven't made so much as a league semifinal since I set foot on campus in fall 2002, and at this point I simply don't expect us to be nationally relevant ever again. I hang on in the hopes that I'm wrong, or at least that they'll give me an enjoyable moment here and there.

I think if Michigan Tech became nationally relevant again after becoming irrelevant for a little while, then so can RPI. But that starts from the top down, above Coach Smith.

I know I have been one of Coach Smith's biggest supporters on here, and I totally understand the frustration and annoyance with the team's performance this season. I have not enjoyed the season the same as you all have not. I'm just not ready to throw it in the towel on a coach who basically had all his best players (and some recruits too) taken away due to factors outside of his control. I don't view 2020 as having won the Super Bowl although I can see how it comes across that way sometimes. I can't speak for others, but when I reference 2020, I moreso am referencing two factors:
1) The team seemed primed to make it to Lake Placid (and potentially beyond, but Cornell would have been a tough out), and lots of core players returned for the following season.
2) The momentum from that team would have propelled the team's recruiting forward a lot.

We can't blame anyone for a global pandemic occurring but we certainly can blame the administration for their response to it. Cancelling the season and not letting the team practice lost the team part of its core with Savory and Ashbrook. I think they could have managed that if the administration in the spring didn't refuse to acknowledge the team would be playing in 2021-22. They refused to guarantee the FOLLOWING season would be happening, and then, the team lost Babichuk and Ferner too. Obviously we have no way of knowing the types of recruits that might have been more interested, but I'm sure we would have been in a better spot there as well.

The only reason last year was any better than this year was because the players who did stay stepped up with Leppanen, Linden, Lacka, Dubinsky, Mahshie, Johnson, and Kjellberg all playing key roles. Some of them had had key roles before (like Linden, Leppanen, Dubinsky, and Kjellberg), so they were able to take on more. And guys like Addamo, Sellar, Walsh, and Agnew added depth. After the administration didn't allow anyone except students in the building last year though, once again detrimenting recruiting and keeping current players, all the key players except Mahshie left. It's definitely not the sole reason some of them left, but it certainly was a large factor. I can't blame them for being fed up.

So now here we are, not enough talent left to fill the gaps of all the departures due to recruiting not taking the jump that it should and the current players who were in the bottom of the lineup (except for Mahshie and Walsh) now trying to fill top of the lineup roles they aren't ready for. What the team needs more than anything is positive momentum to get things rolling, whether that is doing more with less on the ice or some sort of positive news from the administration of investments in facilities or something along those lines.

The good thing is that Marty does seem committed to athletics and that support does appear to be coming. On the ice, the vast majority of this team will return next season, now with experience in their current roles and with a full year of development extra. Hopefully, the team can finish the year somewhat strong, win their first round game to get to the quarterfinals at least, and then, with most of the team returning, have a solid year next season.

But I just don't see how a coaching change accomplishes anything outside of continuing to throw in coaches and hope they work out. I also really do not see the school moving on from Coach Smith less than a year after giving him a 5 year extension.

[Wicked Slappaahs]

I will throw in my inflation-degraded 2 cents. I am not impressed with the team's performance this season, but as blue1924 wrote, not much was expected. I do see positive signs, and if Smith can keep the portal losses to a minimum, we should be considerably better next year. I am certainly not nearly as down on him as I was with his predecessor in his last few years. We may indeed been better off with Ben Barr as the coach, but considering the hand that Smith has been dealt, I am not writing him off. And also, we do have some more very good recruits in the pipeline -- not top-tier, but we can't change things around in one year.

Well said RB...I tend to agree with all of this. Assuming we can prevent a mass exodus of talent (who really knows?) we should take a full step forward next year.

[DavidNardolillo]

I think if Michigan Tech became nationally relevant again after becoming irrelevant for a little while, then so can RPI. But that starts from the top down, above Coach Smith.

I agree with everything you wrote, but I think the Michigan Tech example, while a good one and relevant to RPI, has an intersection with the conference realignment that began 10 years ago when the Big 10 was formed. The "smaller" teams in the WCHA that tended to be in the bottom half of the standings, including Michigan Tech and Minnesota State-Mankato, were hung out to dry by the big WCHA teams that left to form the Big 10 and NCHC. You can compare the W-L records from 2013-14 (the first year of NCHC and Big 10) to present to the prior 10 seasons. It seems like resetting the level of league competition helped provide immediate benefits to the W-L record and Tech deserves credit for getting the program into position to capitalize on it. Maybe some Tech fans on here will chime in and give us the other ingredients that were involved.