HEA Mens 2022 Tournament Mega-Thread

[Split-N]

...the college game has turned into a junior pro league. It is too bad but that is the name of the game and it is not going back to the way it was.

I'm afraid you're right on both counts.

[RSTuthill]

On his overall nine seasons/eight HE seasons? You can't use a few less scholarships for one season to explain away his pedestrian record over his tenure as head coach. Sean

Agreed. Incidentally, I think in the last year of their AHA play, did they not give something like 6? But remember, at this level, the SA's that a new team will likely be able to recruit will need a couple years before they can make an impact. So slide the timeline out a couple years to understand when they reasonably could have been expected to start getting on their feet as a team, so to speak.

And looked at another way, coming into HE as a middle strength AHA team, UConn has built steadily towards the HE upper echelon. Getting to the championship game in less than eight years would probably be unrealistic. Now, they lost a lot at the end of this season, so they may have to rebuild a little next year. And I am worried about the Russian pipeline given the current geopolitical situation. But I would not be surprised to see them near the top again sooner than many here think.

[chickod]

This year was first time HE wasn't represented in the regional or quarter final round.

https://hockeyeastonline.com/men/hoc...nt-history.php

Yeah, J.D. was right. This year was a disaster. And if you think about the fact that Worcester could have arguably been the weakest regional (the #1 seed lost 11 games), it's even worse. You couldn't reasonably expect Lowell to beat Denver, but ONE of either UMass or NU should have been able to get to at least the regional final.

Question: I didn't watch last night...how was the crowd in Worcester?

[NCAA watcher]

Question: I didn't watch last night...how was the crowd in Worcester?

Both were fine.

[Sean Pickett]

Question: I didn't watch last night...how was the crowd in Worcester?

Both were fine.

The crowd in Worcester was far from fine: they had their worst attendance out of the 10 times they've hosted under the current format. The semifinal attendance was good when compared to regionals outside New England (it would be in the top third), but was in the bottom quarter of regionals held in New England. The final attendance was the fourth worst under the current format and the two day attendance total was in the bottom third of all regionals and second worst of all regionals held in New England. You can read my posts about this year's regional semifinal and final attendance in the Incredibly Dull Boring 2022 Pairwise and Tournament Possibilities Thread.

Sean

[J.D.]

Friday was fine. Not the old days, but fine. It was a good atmosphere for the players. The previous regional finals in Worcester (current format) have been:

UNH vs. BU
BC vs. UND
BC vs. BU
BC vs. Miami
BC vs. Yale
BC vs. UMD
BC vs. UML
BC vs. UMD
BU vs. Michigan

So this year we got an all western team regional final in Worcester. No surprise at all there was a big dip yesterday.

[Sean Pickett]

Friday was fine. Not the old days, but fine. It was a good atmosphere for the players. The previous regional finals in Worcester (current format) have been:

UNH vs. BU
BC vs. UND
BC vs. BU
BC vs. Miami
BC vs. Yale
BC vs. UMD
BC vs. UML
BC vs. UMD
BU vs. Michigan

So this year we got an all western team regional final in Worcester. No surprise at all there was a big dip yesterday.

It's more than just an all western final this year. Here are the year by year finals attendance and difference from the semifinals:

2003	Fri-Sat	8,927	-97
2005	Fri-Sat	8,695	335
2006	Fri-Sat	8,742	1,079
2008	Sat-Sun	5,911	-1,446
2010	Sat-Sun	6,054	-518
2012	Sat-Sun	4,470	-1,455
2014	Sat-Sun	5,474	-1,048
2016	Fri-Sat	4,572	-2,110
2018	Sat-Sun	5,499	-2,942
2022	Fri-Sun	2,848	-3,154

As can be seen finals attendance at Worcester decreased in 2008 and then again in 2012 and 2016, with increases in 2014 and 2018. The first 3 regionals held the semifinals on Friday and the final on Saturday, which could account in part why attendance for the final held steady or increased. Five of the next six regionals held the semifinals on Saturday and the final on Sunday, which could account in part which attendance for the final decreased. Locking closer at each year in 2003 there were 3 local teams at Worcester, 2 the top seeds:

2003

Fri-Sat

8,927

-97

1. New Hampshire

2. Boston University

3. Harvard

4. St. Cloud

We can see that with the Friday-Saturday schedule and the top 2 local teams winning the semifinals attendance dipped by only 97 (BTW, this gives statistical evidence that there were actually 97 Harvard fans in 2003). So the combination of the final on Saturday and the local teams, which were also the top teams, winning interest held strong. In 2005 there were 2 Boston teams:

2005

Fri-Sat

8,695

335

1. Boston College

2. North Dakota

3. Boston University

4. Mercyhurst

This time the top 2 seeds again won, but only one was a Boston team. However, it appears that any loss of BU fans was offset by the final again being on a Saturday and the top 2 teams winning, even though one was from the west. In 2006 there were again two Boston teams:

2006

Fri-Sat

8,742

1,079

1. Boston University

2. Miami

3. Boston College

4. Omaha

This time both Boston teams won, setting up another showdown just a week after the Hockey East championship game. With the game again on Saturday it lead to a nice bump in attendance from the semifinals. In 2008 things changed as the regional was on Saturday-Sunday and there was only one Boston team and 3 western teams:

2008

Sat-Sun

5,911

-1,446

1. Miami

2. Boston College

3. Minnesota

4. Air Force

Semifinal attendance was pretty good, but despite both top teams, including BC, winning attendance dropped by almost 20%. It would appear that this drop was more due to the game being on Sunday then any other factor. In 2010 there was one Boston team and a second New England team as a lower seed:

2010

Sat-Sun

6,054

-518

1. Boston College

2. North Dakota

3. Yale

4. Alaska

Both eastern teams won, with Yale upsetting the #2 seed. The final was again on Sunday, but with two eastern teams attendance was only down 8% from the semifinals and just a 1/3 of the attendance drop in 2008. In 2012 it was another Saturday-Sunday with one Boston team and a second New England team as lower seed:

2012

Sat-Sun

4,470

-1,455

1. Boston College

2. Minnesota-Duluth

3. Maine

4. Air Force

This time the top two seeds won again, including the Boston team, but the loss of the second eastern team and the game being on Sunday again dropped attendance by just under 25% and almost the same total drop as in 2008. In 2014 there were again two local teams as the top 2 teams in the regional:

2014

Sat-Sun

5,474

-1,048

1. Boston College

2. UMass Lowell

3. Minnesota State

4. Denver

This time both local teams won, setting up the Hockey East championship game that didn't happen when BC was upset by Notre Dame in the quarterfinals. However, despite this marquee matchup attendance tumbled by over 1,000, a 16% drop from the semifinals. It's actually surprising that attendance dropped so much, even with the game on Sunday. In 2016 the regional was played on Friday-Saturday for the first time since 2006. There were also 3 local teams for the first time since 2003:

2016

Fri-Sat

4,572

-2,110

1. Providence

2. Boston College

3. Harvard

4. Minnesota-Duluth

Despite this the semifinal attendance was barely better than in 2014 and with 2 of the local teams losing, including the top seed the final attendance had the largest percentage drop, 31.5%, and total attendance drop to date. It's somewhat likely that a strong Providence contingent was expecting a winning weekend to return to the Frozen Four and the upset lose in the semifinals thoroughly dispirited them, although that is only conjecture. 2018 returned to Saturday-Sunday, but again had 3 eastern teams, including 2 Boston schools:

2018

Sat-Sun

5,499

-2,942

1. Cornell

2. Michigan

3. Northeastern

4. Boston University

The semifinals had the second best attendance at Worcester, but the upset win by BU over top seed Cornell and 3# NU's loss meant that only the lowest seeded eastern team was in the final. This combined with it being on Sunday led to a 35% drop in attendance and the largest total attendance drop to date. Worcester was supposed to host in 2020, but it was cancelled due to COVID. In 2022 the NCAA tried a new schedule with a day off between semifinals and final with Worcester being Friday-Sunday. This may be the worst possible scheduling and although there were two eastern teams, including a Boston school, they were both lower seeds:

2022

Fri-Sun

2,848

-3,154

1. Western Michigan

2. Minnesota

3. Massachusetts

4. Northeastern

The semifinal attendance was the second worst for Worcester, likely saved by the late start for the second game. However, both top seeds won, sending the eastern teams home. Combined with a Sunday evening final this led to a huge attendance drop of 52.5% and a total drop of 3,154, both the worst to date.

It's apparent that in the local college hockey fans are still quite parochial and are less likely to attend the regional when their team isn't there. Part of this may be due to their team playing in another regional and wanting to watch on TV and part of it may be due to being a fan of their team in particular and not college hockey in general.

Sean

[Elbowing]

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm not a hater. However I do enjoy stats and what they tell me is that it's highly unlikely Coach Cavanaugh will have long term continued success. Since WWII there have been 426 head coaches of current and former DI programs and of those only 168 were still coaching at they same school after 8 seasons. Of those 59 had a cumulative winning percentage below 0.500 and of those just 20 had not won a postseason series/game after 7 seasons. Of those 20, Coach Cavanaugh is the fourth to win a postseason series/game in his eighth season or later and the second to do so in his ninth season or later.

Career		GC	W	L	T	Pct.	W%	Dif
Doug Ross	UAH	673	376	255	42	0.590	0.559	-0.031	?D2ǂD2?D2ǂD2**^†
James Fullerton	BRN	353	176	168	9	0.511	0.499	-0.013	?≠‡!
Amo Bessone	MSU	814	367	427	20	0.463	0.451	-0.012	?!!ŦǂŦ‡‼‼‼‼

Doug Ross, started UAH from scratch and built them into a DII powerhouse before they moved to DI, where he still had some success, but not to the same level.

James Fullerton had three winning seasons his first eight, but his ninth season was his best, when he won the Ivy League title, made the ECAC championship game and Brown was selected as the second eastern team for the Frozen Four.

Amo Bessone's seventh season was his first winning one at MSU and he followed it up with an even better eighth season when MSU was selected as one of the two western teams for the Frozen Four and he coached them to the NCAA championship game. He went on to win the NCAA title 7 years later, but had very limited postseason success otherwise and finished his long career with just 12 winning seasons out of 28 and a losing cumulative record.

Sean

? Ivy League Title

* League Regular Season Champion

! League Tournament Semifinals

≠ League Tournament Runner-Up

^ League Tournament Champion

‼ League Playoff Series/2nd Round Loser/Regional Runner-up/2020 Semifinalist

Ŧ League Playoff Series/2nd Round Winner/Regional Champion

# National Invitational Hockey Tournament

₸ NIHT Runner-up

₹ NIHT Champion

† NCAA Tournament

(†) Probable 2020 NCAA Tournament/2021 Tournament (unable to participate due to COVID)

‡ NCAA Frozen Four

? NCAA Runner-up

ǂ NCAA Champion

D2 NCAA Division II

D3 NCAA Division III

NA NAIA

“How to lie with Statistics” is a great book, I recommend to all on this board. Sean “I got time on my hands” Pickett is missing the fact that this club went from an inferior conference to a superior conference in those 8 years (one or two without full scholly’s and Covid in there as well). The fact of the matter is this senior class was his 4th or 5th recruiting class. 8 years ago, not one good D1 caliber player considered UConn, this year they lost to the defending National Champion and HE Champion in sudden death OT.

You can Wikipedia yourself to death big guy, but no stats are going to hide your bias.

Cav can coach, and those that follow the program’s he’s been at know this first hand. Those that choose to ignore, hate, or pull obscure stats that don’t encapsulate the entire picture, will be spewing visceral on this ancient message board for years to come.

Good use of time though….donkey.

[Patman]

“How to lie with Statistics” is a great book, I recommend to all on this board. Sean “I got time on my hands” Pickett is missing the fact that this club went from an inferior conference to a superior conference in those 8 years (one or two without full scholly’s and Covid in there as well). The fact of the matter is this senior class was his 4th or 5th recruiting class. 8 years ago, not one good D1 caliber player considered UConn, this year they lost to the defending National Champion and HE Champion in sudden death OT.

You can Wikipedia yourself to death big guy, but no stats are going to hide your bias.

Cav can coach, and those that follow the program’s he’s been at know this first hand. Those that choose to ignore, hate, or pull obscure stats that don’t encapsulate the entire picture, will be spewing visceral on this ancient message board for years to come.

Good use of time though….donkey.

If I'm going to say somebody here is being intellectually unfair, it isn't going to be Sean Pickett.