UNH Wildcats 2021/2022 - Return of the Champions of October?

[Felger]

How in holy he11 did UNH dig a pair of 4 goal holes to this UMaine team last night?

Two deeply flawed teams for sure, I guess it's not surprising they'll be splitting the weekend ...

Couldn't agree more. Yet just 24 hours earlier we heard that the new coach up there had already changed the culture. I just didn't realize what that culture had become and that the Maine Black Bears had morphed into the Charlestown Chiefs. A major penalty and game misconduct each night. Nice disciplined play. Could have been two majors on Friday had the review on the Jensen hit gone UNH's way. I noticed he was out last night.

Speaking of flawed teams, this season UNH surrendered 8 points out of a possible 15 points in its league games vs Maine (PWR 52) and Vermont (PWR 58.) Get even half of those 8 points and the 'Cats wouldn't be sweating out that last home ice spot for the preliminary round of the playoffs. (Although as deltabravo correctly points out that speaks to how low the bar is nowadays.)

[Sean Pickett]

From the box score it looks like UNH played a good game last night.

From 2002-2003 season through 2020-2021:
Jan 12 2005 vs Dartmouth in Manchester
UNH up 7-3, lost 8-9
http://collegehockeystats.net/0405/boxes/mdarunh1.j12

Dec 11 2008 vs Holy Cross
UNH up 4-0, Holy Cross ties it 4-4, UNH scores 5 goals to win 9-4
http://collegehockeystats.net/0809/boxes/mhcrunh1.d11

Nov 22 2011 vs Harvard
UNH up 4-0, lost 6-7
http://collegehockeystats.net/1112/boxes/mharunh1.n22

Nov 23 2012 vs Colorado College
UNH up 4-0, tied 4-4
http://collegehockeystats.net/1213/boxes/mcc_unh1.n23

**BLOWN 5 GOAL LEAD**
Oct 23 2015 vs UMass
UNH up 6-1, tied 6-6
http://collegehockeystats.net/1516/boxes/mumaunh1.o23

Jan 6 2018 vs Brown
UNH up 4-0, tied 4-4
http://collegehockeystats.net/1718/boxes/mbrnunh1.j06

Jan 5 2019 vs Yale
Yale up 4-0, UNH ties 5-5
http://www.collegehockeystats.net/18...s/munhyal1.j05

Feb 13 2021 vs NU
NU up 4-0, UNH ties it 4-4, NU wins 5-4
http://www.collegehockeystats.net/20...s/mnoeunh1.f13

I already had the information for the 2019 and 2021 games. The NU win was the only other game in the past four seasons a team lost a 4 goal lead, a total of 5 times out of 878 games (another 5 teams had 4 goal leads in yesterday's games).

For the earlier games, I hope to eventually research and compile information on those seasons, but if you have already done so please let me know if you would be willing to share your data with me. It could probably save me a lot of time.

I do have game results already entered from the 2012-13 season forward and between 2012-18 1,152 games ended with a goal differential of 4 or more goals vs the 3 UNH games you have from that timeframe. I'm sure that there are more games in which a team had a 4 goal lead before it was narrowed and that there are more games than you have listed in which a team lost a 4 goal lead. However, I don't think it likely that there are very many blown 4 goal games overall.

That said, it seems UNH has possibly played in a large percentage of them, including 2 of the 5 games in the past 4 seasons. It also appears that they have flipped it from losing 4 goal leads to coming back from being 4 goals down, although I'm not sure if being behind by 4 and coming back is really better as most teams behind by 4 end up losing.

UNH's real problem the past 4 seasons is that when they get the lead they haven't done a good job of protecting and increasing it. The Wildcats are 46-23-13, 0.640 in games in which they have taken the lead at any point, which puts them 47th out of 62 teams and well below the combined 0.725 winning percentage of all teams. Furthermore, UNH has failed to maintain the lead 50 time over the past 4 seasons, tied for 15th out of 62 teams (some teams have played fewer seasons/games and some teams have taken the lead fewer times than others, so this is not a completely level comparison). The average is 43 blown leads and the median is 45 blown leads, so what a team does after failing to hold the lead is critical. UNH is 14-23-13, 0.410 in those games, 45th out of 62 and well below the average of 0.494. Not surprisingly Minnesota State, Minnesota-Duluth, St. Cloud, Massachusetts and North Dakota, Cornell and Denver are among the top ten (perhaps surprisingly Lake Superior, AIC and Northern Michigan are also in the top ten).

By the way, UNH has improved this season:
13-5-1, 0.711 with lead (0.727 all teams)
10 blown leads (average and median 11)
4-5-1, 0.451 after losing lead (0.471 all teams)

Sean

[HockeyRef]

Couldn't agree more. Yet just 24 hours earlier we heard that the new coach up there had already changed the culture. I just didn't realize what that culture had become and that the Maine Black Bears had morphed into the Charlestown Chiefs. A major penalty and game misconduct each night. Nice disciplined play. Could have been two majors on Friday had the review on the Jensen hit gone UNH's way. I noticed he was out last night.

Speaking of flawed teams, this season UNH surrendered 8 points out of a possible 15 points in its league games vs Maine (PWR 52) and Vermont (PWR 58.) Get even half of those 8 points and the 'Cats wouldn't be sweating out that last home ice spot for the preliminary round of the playoffs. (Although as deltabravo correctly points out that speaks to how low the bar is nowadays.)

Speaks entirely to being ready to play, and playing with a sense of urgency, every single time on the ice, esp. against teams you KNOW you have a decent shot at. This seems to be the story of UNH hockey in recent years, at least, from me/husbands view. He says "how do they do so well, beat so and so and then, just not show up for 5 more games" has been the lament. I don't know how you get a team up every single night, but, seems to me the preparation / readiness is sorely lacking somewhere, gee...

[HockeyRef]

From the box score it looks like UNH played a good game last night.

I already had the information for the 2019 and 2021 games. The NU win was the only other game in the past four seasons a team lost a 4 goal lead, a total of 5 times out of 878 games (another 5 teams had 4 goal leads in yesterday's games).

For the earlier games, I hope to eventually research and compile information on those seasons, but if you have already done so please let me know if you would be willing to share your data with me. It could probably save me a lot of time.

I do have game results already entered from the 2012-13 season forward and between 2012-18 1,152 games ended with a goal differential of 4 or more goals vs the 3 UNH games you have from that timeframe. I'm sure that there are more games in which a team had a 4 goal lead before it was narrowed and that there are more games than you have listed in which a team lost a 4 goal lead. However, I don't think it likely that there are very many blown 4 goal games overall.

That said, it seems UNH has possibly played in a large percentage of them, including 2 of the 5 games in the past 4 seasons. It also appears that they have flipped it from losing 4 goal leads to coming back from being 4 goals down, although I'm not sure if being behind by 4 and coming back is really better as most teams behind by 4 end up losing.

UNH's real problem the past 4 seasons is that when they get the lead they haven't done a good job of protecting and increasing it. The Wildcats are 46-23-13, 0.640 in games in which they have taken the lead at any point, which puts them 47th out of 62 teams and well below the combined 0.725 winning percentage of all teams. Furthermore, UNH has failed to maintain the lead 50 time over the past 4 seasons, tied for 15th out of 62 teams (some teams have played fewer seasons/games and some teams have taken the lead fewer times than others, so this is not a completely level comparison). The average is 43 blown leads and the median is 45 blown leads, so what a team does after failing to hold the lead is critical. UNH is 14-23-13, 0.410 in those games, 45th out of 62 and well below the average of 0.494. Not surprisingly Minnesota State, Minnesota-Duluth, St. Cloud, Massachusetts and North Dakota, Cornell and Denver are among the top ten (perhaps surprisingly Lake Superior, AIC and Northern Michigan are also in the top ten).

By the way, UNH has improved this season:
13-5-1, 0.711 with lead (0.727 all teams)
10 blown leads (average and median 11)
4-5-1, 0.451 after losing lead (0.471 all teams)

Sean

Wow Sean very interesting analysis...Glad to know we are doing better in the 'blown lead' dept! Some of those might be from a lack of making necessary adjustments, I dunno. Would like to see a continued improvement in this area; it can only help the situation. Last night was another instance of playing well (esp in special teams/PP) like they have shown they can do when they are prepared to do so. UML last week. Not so much Friday (obviously) and against UVM previous week. Keeping that going has been the challenge....Again, appreciate you taking the time to point this stuff out. (You too Cloud 9)

[Chuck Murray]

From the box score it looks like UNH played a good game last night.

I already had the information for the 2019 and 2021 games. The NU win was the only other game in the past four seasons a team lost a 4 goal lead, a total of 5 times out of 878 games (another 5 teams had 4 goal leads in yesterday's games).

For the earlier games, I hope to eventually research and compile information on those seasons, but if you have already done so please let me know if you would be willing to share your data with me. It could probably save me a lot of time.

I do have game results already entered from the 2012-13 season forward and between 2012-18 1,152 games ended with a goal differential of 4 or more goals vs the 3 UNH games you have from that timeframe. I'm sure that there are more games in which a team had a 4 goal lead before it was narrowed and that there are more games than you have listed in which a team lost a 4 goal lead. However, I don't think it likely that there are very many blown 4 goal games overall.

That said, it seems UNH has possibly played in a large percentage of them, including 2 of the 5 games in the past 4 seasons. It also appears that they have flipped it from losing 4 goal leads to coming back from being 4 goals down, although I'm not sure if being behind by 4 and coming back is really better as most teams behind by 4 end up losing.

UNH's real problem the past 4 seasons is that when they get the lead they haven't done a good job of protecting and increasing it. The Wildcats are 46-23-13, 0.640 in games in which they have taken the lead at any point, which puts them 47th out of 62 teams and well below the combined 0.725 winning percentage of all teams. Furthermore, UNH has failed to maintain the lead 50 time over the past 4 seasons, tied for 15th out of 62 teams (some teams have played fewer seasons/games and some teams have taken the lead fewer times than others, so this is not a completely level comparison). The average is 43 blown leads and the median is 45 blown leads, so what a team does after failing to hold the lead is critical. UNH is 14-23-13, 0.410 in those games, 45th out of 62 and well below the average of 0.494. Not surprisingly Minnesota State, Minnesota-Duluth, St. Cloud, Massachusetts and North Dakota, Cornell and Denver are among the top ten (perhaps surprisingly Lake Superior, AIC and Northern Michigan are also in the top ten).

By the way, UNH has improved this season:
13-5-1, 0.711 with lead (0.727 all teams)
10 blown leads (average and median 11)
4-5-1, 0.451 after losing lead (0.471 all teams)

Sean

Sincerely thanks for the research on the one-goal games, Sean. Saturday's box score probably did more accurately reflect the share of play than did the Friday box score. As folks on here know well, I've been a leading proponent of the importance of (1) scoring the first goal, and (2) effectively playing with/preserving a lead, as opposed to racking up an edge in SOG's, which often can be a trailing indicator of "share of play" in a given game. Friday's game was a prime example of misleading SOG data, where UNH literally trailed the game for 59+ minutes, never were realistically in the game at any point, but had a 33-29 lead in SOG's.

I guess it's encouraging that UNH has gotten closer to average in the "playing with the lead" metric, and not surprisingly have been more competitive this season than last. But it's a tell-tale sign that whilst it's better, it's still not even average.

Couldn't agree more. Yet just 24 hours earlier we heard that the new coach up there had already changed the culture. I just didn't realize what that culture had become and that the Maine Black Bears had morphed into the Charlestown Chiefs. A major penalty and game misconduct each night. Nice disciplined play. Could have been two majors on Friday had the review on the Jensen hit gone UNH's way. I noticed he was out last night.

There was some discussion on this on the UMaine thread. Curiously, UMaine has probably shown more discipline this year than in recent seasons, and it's been a point of emphasis, on which many of their fans are quite pleased. There has been a theory floated (to which I tend to agree) that Coach Barr changed his tactics for this weekend, and it appears they caught MS7 and his boys by surprise for sure, and by the time UNH adjusted on Friday, that game was a lost cause. But knowing what to expect for Saturday, the 'Cats were better prepared, and it led to the UNH win.

I mean, let's be honest, if there is a Hockey East program that's had a long-standing reputation for playing a soft game, it's been UNH. So if Coach Barr (or any other HEA program) is looking for a short-term edge, why not go to the well and amp up the physical play, see if it pays off, and (afterwards) rinse and repeat if it worked the first time around? I lay that 100% at the doorstep of the current and past UNH coaches; after all, the term "Mildcats" didn't come out of the ether, there is usually a large grain of truth in any quip that sticks like that, and UMaine/Barr exploited it expertly on Friday. Either MS7 and his guys are going to address the issue quickly and consistently, or it'll become a key part of his successor's to-do list.

P.S. - is it my imagination, or has Snively65 away been in radio silence for a wee bit lately??

[HockeyRef]

Sincerely thanks for the research on the one-goal games, Sean. Saturday's box score probably did more accurately reflect the share of play than did the Friday box score. As folks on here know well, I've been a leading proponent of the importance of (1) scoring the first goal, and (2) effectively playing with/preserving a lead, as opposed to racking up an edge in SOG's, which often can be a trailing indicator of "share of play" in a given game. Friday's game was a prime example of misleading SOG data, where UNH literally trailed the game for 59+ minutes, never were realistically in the game at any point, but had a 33-29 lead in SOG's.

I guess it's encouraging that UNH has gotten closer to average in the "playing with the lead" metric, and not surprisingly have been more competitive this season than last. But it's a tell-tale sign that whilst it's better, it's still not even average.



There was some discussion on this on the UMaine thread. Curiously, UMaine has probably shown more discipline this year than in recent seasons, and it's been a point of emphasis, on which many of their fans are quite pleased. There has been a theory floated (to which I tend to agree) that Coach Barr changed his tactics for this weekend, and it appears they caught MS7 and his boys by surprise for sure, and by the time UNH adjusted on Friday, that game was a lost cause. But knowing what to expect for Saturday, the 'Cats were better prepared, and it led to the UNH win.

I mean, let's be honest, if there is a Hockey East program that's had a long-standing reputation for playing a soft game, it's been UNH. So if Coach Barr (or any other HEA program) is looking for a short-term edge, why not go to the well and amp up the physical play, see if it pays off, and (afterwards) rinse and repeat if it worked the first time around? I lay that 100% at the doorstep of the current and past UNH coaches; after all, the term "Mildcats" didn't come out of the ether, there is usually a large grain of truth in any quip that sticks like that, and UMaine/Barr exploited it expertly on Friday. Either MS7 and his guys are going to address the issue quickly and consistently, or it'll become a key part of his successor's to-do list.

P.S. - is it my imagination, or has Snively65 away been in radio silence for a wee bit lately??

Chuck, no truer words about it's no longer a secret that if you 'bring the physical' UNH can't handle it...esp. if they do not expect it. Case in point was the UConn weekend. UConn brought a much more heavy handed game in the Sat night match (am talking when we played there 2 games) and that was that. Friday night, UConn was physical, but not like they were on Saturday. A team should be ready for anything, on any given night, and, obviously, adjustments need to be made. That's the coaching side of things, and, accordingly, the players need to respond to said message. I think a big part of why we beat UML was we played a more physical game for a change?

I miss Snively here...I think he's happier spending his time on other threads...Can't speak for him but that's my drift...Snively 65...if you're listening...

[Chuck Murray]

Speaks entirely to being ready to play, and playing with a sense of urgency, every single time on the ice, esp. against teams you KNOW you have a decent shot at. This seems to be the story of UNH hockey in recent years, at least, from me/husbands view. He says "how do they do so well, beat so and so and then, just not show up for 5 more games" has been the lament. I don't know how you get a team up every single night, but, seems to me the preparation / readiness is sorely lacking somewhere, gee...

You should get Mr. Ref to post, HR. I bet it would make for some fun times on here! :-)

I've suggested our kids dive in at some point, but they always remind me, they have a life. ;-)

The NCAA D-1 Hockey season isn't anywhere close to being the grind that other competitions are. My understanding is that it's comparable with US prep school hockey (30-ish games?), but kids are playing twice as many games in Major Junior up in Canada, and of course there are 70-ish game schedules plus playoffs at 'Coast and AHL levels, and 80 plus at the NHL level.

No-shows here and there are more understandable at the pro levels. Two games a week tops at the D-1 level is hardly a slog through an endless season, especially with the limited travel demands in HEA (and with UNH being relatively centrally located, worst trips being 3 hours each way). I didn't hear any excuses like that from MS7 this weekend, but it's come up a few times before, and it drives me nuts to hear that kvetching - almost as much as the rink size BS. :-(

[Sean Pickett]

Wow Sean very interesting analysis

Sincerely thanks for the research on the one-goal games, Sean.

Thanks for the compliments. I started looking into leads earlier this season when some BU fans were ripping BU and Coach O'Connell for blown leads. BU has improved since I started, but earlier this season holding a lead wasn't BU's main problem; getting a lead was. However, since the start of December they have been great at both, scoring first in 13 of the last 14, never losing the lead in 8 of those games, regaining the lead for good in another 3 games, and only falling behind in 2 games (1 loss, 1 tie).

As folks on here know well, I've been a leading proponent of the importance of (1) scoring the first goal, and (2) effectively playing with/preserving a lead

Over the past 4 seasons the team that scores first in a game won 65.7% of the time, with a combined 2407-929-328, 0.702 record. However, it wasn't always easy, as the team that scored first never lost the lead just 40.9% of the time. Here are the top ten team's records with a lead this season:

			Record with Lead
	Team	League	W	L	T	Pct.
1	Quinnipiac	ECAC	26	1	0	0.963
2	Notre Dame	B1G	23	1	0	0.958
3	Minnesota State	CCHA	29	2	0	0.935
4	Denver	NCHC	22	2	1	0.900
5	Michigan	B1G	25	3	0	0.893
6	Western Michigan	NCHC	20	3	1	0.854
7	Army	AHA	15	3	0	0.833
8	Ohio State	B1G	21	4	1	0.827
9	Omaha	NCHC	19	4	0	0.826
10	Clarkson	ECAC	18	2	5	0.820

and over the past 4 seasons:

			Record with Lead
	Team	League	W	L	T	Pct.
1	Minnesota State	CCHA	114	8	2	0.927
2	Lake Superior	CCHA	71	11	3	0.853
3	North Dakota	NCHC	85	12	7	0.851
4	Quinnipiac	ECAC	89	14	4	0.850
5	Massachusetts	HEA	89	14	5	0.847
6	Minnesota Duluth	NCHC	81	14	4	0.838
7	AIC	AHA	76	15	2	0.828
8	St. Cloud State	NCHC	78	13	9	0.825
9	Cornell	ECAC	60	10	7	0.825
10	Denver	NCHC	77	14	7	0.821

Here are the Hockey East team's records for this season:

			Record with Lead
	Team	League	W	L	T	Pct.
1	Northeastern	HEA	20	4	1	0.820
2	Providence	HEA	19	4	1	0.813
3	Connecticut	HEA	17	4	0	0.810
4	Boston University	HEA	17	4	2	0.783
	Massachusetts	HEA	17	4	2	0.783
	UMass Lowell	HEA	17	4	2	0.783
7	New Hampshire	HEA	13	5	1	0.711
8	Merrimack	HEA	17	7	1	0.700
9	Boston College	HEA	11	7	5	0.587
10	Maine	HEA	6	4	2	0.583
11	Vermont	HEA	6	11	1	0.361

and for the past 4 seasons:

			Record with Lead
	Team	League	W	L	T	Pct.
1	Massachusetts	HEA	89	14	5	0.847
2	Providence	HEA	70	15	14	0.778
3	Northeastern	HEA	74	19	7	0.775
4	UMass Lowell	HEA	62	16	9	0.764
5	Maine	HEA	42	13	6	0.738
6	Boston College	HEA	66	22	9	0.727
7	Boston University	HEA	56	17	13	0.727
8	Connecticut	HEA	54	20	5	0.715
9	New Hampshire	HEA	46	23	13	0.640
10	Merrimack	HEA	38	28	8	0.568
11	Vermont	HEA	25	29	6	0.467

Sean

[HockeyRef]

Wow, if stats don't tell tales, nothing does. Note how many of those teams who keep leads, score first...isn't it interesting how they end up being perennial powerhouse in PWR? Go to Regionals? Go to FF's? Talk about things that make you go hmmmmm.....

[Sean Pickett]

Wow, if stats don't tell tales, nothing does. Note how many of those teams who keep leads, score first...isn't it interesting how they end up being perennial powerhouse in PWR? Go to Regionals? Go to FF's? Talk about things that make you go hmmmmm.....

As I remember my father saying, "There are lies, damn lies and statistics." The saying has been around for over a hundred years, but I've always liked it since I find stats very interesting. For example, Army currently has the 7th best record with a lead this season, but is only 20th over the past 4 seasons. Furthermore, they have only held the lead in 18 games this season, the fewest among the teams in the top ten. Still, overall I have found the records enlightening and I hope to learn more as I add more seasons.

Sean

[Chuck Murray]

Mourning the recent passing of Emile "The Cat" Francis, legendary Rangers player, coach, etc.

Emile Francis, goaltender who became Hall of Fame coach and GM, dies at 95 | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

You'll note that Francis finished his front office career at Hartford, where he built a pretty decent Whalers team in the late 80's which included a boatload of players who would also move on to coaching careers in the NHL. Look at the following roster to pick out more than a few familiar names, including some who are still at it today, and also including multi-Cup winner Joel Quenneville, who spent most of his playing career as a 3rd pairing defenseman on a string of mediocre teams. Off the top of my head, I know in addition to Quenneville, guys like Ron Francis, Kevin Dineen, Dean Evason, Dave Tippett, Brent Peterson, Randy Ladouceur (those last two previously being Dead Wings alums), and even the infamous Ulf Samuelsson have enjoyed time behind an NHL bench and/or in the front office, while other guys like Mike Liut, Brian Lawton and Ray Ferraro have enjoyed prominent careers in hockey in other capacities.

Hartford Whalers 1988-89 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

Larry Pleau was head coach of The Whale towards the end of the Francis era, and many long-timers on here will remember that Larry's son Steve was a spare parts 3rd/4th line player at UNH, who is one of the few 'Cats to have called Snively, The Whitt AND the JFK Coliseum in ManchVegas in between his home ice back in the mid-'90's.

"The Cat" certainly left his fingerprints all over the hockey world - ironically, even with our 'Cats.

[Felger]

Mourning the recent passing of Emile "The Cat" Francis, legendary Rangers player, coach, etc.

Emile Francis, goaltender who became Hall of Fame coach and GM, dies at 95 | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

"The Cat" certainly left his fingerprints all over the hockey world - ironically, even with our 'Cats.

His son Bob also played at UNH, believe he was a captain in his senior season, and was part of two final fours.

[Chuck Murray]

His son Bob also played at UNH, believe he was a captain in his senior season, and was part of two final fours.

Absolutely correct, plus he also coached in the NHL. Funny thing about The Cat is he played most of his career in the minors (less than 100 NHL games even), so when you look at the great coaches or GM's, it's so often the fringe players (Quenneville, Francis, Scotty Bowman, Punch Imlach, and loads of others) who stand out. Even Toe Blake wasn't a great player by any means when he played for the Habs (his best years were the war years when talent was thinned).

[HockeyRef]

Congrats to dman Alex Gagne HE's "Rookie of the Week" for his multi point game Sat night where he registered his first NCAA goal and 2 assists! Glad to see how he and Huard are coming along on the blue line.

[Spirit of UNH Hockey]

Let's go Wildcats!