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UMass Lowell 2021-2022: Which way are we going?

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  • Originally posted by ScottK View Post
    Scoring first is a must on Saturday.

    In the postseason, they are 17-4 under Norm when scoring the 1st goal of the game, 11-3 in Hockey East playoff games. When the opposition scores 1st, Lowell is just 12-13, but 12-9 in Hockey East games.

    If it becomes a 2-goal game, it's essentially over. Under Norm, Lowell is 21-0 when they get a 2-goal lead at any point in a postseason game, 16-0 in Hockey East games. If they fall behind by 2? 1-10 overall, 1-7 in Hockey East games. The 1 win was the double OT comeback against BC in the Hockey East semifinals last season.
    Your own stats show that scoring first is not a must for UML, as they have a 12-9 record when giving up the first goal. That is much better than the combined record through Wednesday night's games of 101-51 for teams scoring first in the HE tournament over the past 11 seasons. However, when a team has taken a 2 goal lead in the tournament over that time it has been pretty much over as teams are a combined 107-13, although 11 other times a team blew a 2 goal lead before going on to win the game. Not quite the perfect record UML has, but pretty solid.

    Sean

    Women's Hockey East Champions 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010
    Men's NCAA Champions 2009, 1995, 1978, 1972, 1971

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    • Originally posted by Sean Pickett View Post
      Your own stats show that scoring first is not a must for UML, as they have a 12-9 record when giving up the first goal. That is much better than the combined record through Wednesday night's games of 101-51 for teams scoring first in the HE tournament over the past 11 seasons. However, when a team has taken a 2 goal lead in the tournament over that time it has been pretty much over as teams are a combined 107-13, although 11 other times a team blew a 2 goal lead before going on to win the game. Not quite the perfect record UML has, but pretty solid.

      Sean
      Scoring first vs not scoring first is the difference between winning about 80% of the time for Lowell vs it being essentially a toss-up. For the regular season this year, that pattern continued: 14-4-0 when they score first, 6-5-3 when they don't. I'll feel a LOT better about Lowell's chances if they score first (and second).

      BTW, 2 of Lowell's 4 losses this season when scoring first were the 2 games against Merrimack. 1 of the 4 in postseason play was also against Merrimack in 2018.
      Charter Member of darin's "UML Seven"

      "I just hate Boston College to be perfectly honest'' -Ken Dorsey
      "It's time for my favorite NCAA tradition ... that's right, rooting against BC!" -Bill Simmons

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      • Originally posted by ScottK View Post
        Scoring first vs not scoring first is the difference between winning about 80% of the time for Lowell vs it being essentially a toss-up. For the regular season this year, that pattern continued: 14-4-0 when they score first, 6-5-3 when they don't. I'll feel a LOT better about Lowell's chances if they score first (and second).
        Of course scoring first is important. Over the past 4 seasons in men's college hockey the team that scores first is a combined 2490-956-333, 0.703. In the postseason over the past 5 seasons teams have a combined 245-104, 0.702 record. Only 27.2% of those teams never lost the lead after scoring the first goal of the game, but it does show the importance of the first goal.

        When taking a 2 goal lead in a game the past 4 seasons teams are a combined 2689-256-146, 0.894 and in the past 5 postseasons teams are 236-30, 0.887.

        Originally posted by ScottK View Post
        BTW, 2 of Lowell's 4 losses this season when scoring first were the 2 games against Merrimack. 1 of the 4 in postseason play was also against Merrimack in 2018.
        Merrimack is 6-3 when scoring first in the HE Tournament and 6-0 when taking a 2 goal lead over the past 11 seasons. They are 10-5-1 when scoring first this season and 15-2-0 when taking a 2 goal lead.

        BTW, according to my stats UML is 17-0 in Hockey East Tournament games when taking a 2 goal lead (of course, I may have made a mistake entering the data).

        Sean
        Last edited by Sean Pickett; 03-11-2022, 05:36 PM.
        Women's Hockey East Champions 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010
        Men's NCAA Champions 2009, 1995, 1978, 1972, 1971

        BU Hockey Games
        BU Hockey highlights and extras
        NCAA Hockey Financials
        Women's Division I Longest Hockey Games
        I need a kidney; looking for a donor

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        • This is going to be a tough matchup. Merrimack is on a roll, and apart from sweeping UNH last weekend, Lowell hasn't looked that great over the last 4 or 5 weeks.

          Fingers crossed. Would be at the Tsongas on Saturday but have prior commitments.
          Let's go Lowell.

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          • Not much to talk about tonight. Most results went well tonight with the exception of union Clarkson. ECAC is a one bid league and Clarkson is IIRC the top spoiler. They won tonight. Meanwhile any at large charge Omaha could have made got snuffed out tonight. I suppose Miami could come back on Denver but I don't care right now

            All of this is slivers. Important game is tomorrow. Get loud
            BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

            Jerseys I would like to have:
            Skating Friar Jersey
            AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
            UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
            Army Black Knight logo jersey


            NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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            • Originally posted by Sean Pickett View Post
              Of course scoring first is important. Over the past 4 seasons in men's college hockey the team that scores first is a combined 2490-956-333, 0.703. In the postseason over the past 5 seasons teams have a combined 245-104, 0.702 record. Only 27.2% of those teams never lost the lead after scoring the first goal of the game, but it does show the importance of the first goal.

              When taking a 2 goal lead in a game the past 4 seasons teams are a combined 2689-256-146, 0.894 and in the past 5 postseasons teams are 236-30, 0.887.

              Merrimack is 6-3 when scoring first in the HE Tournament and 6-0 when taking a 2 goal lead over the past 11 seasons. They are 10-5-1 when scoring first this season and 15-2-0 when taking a 2 goal lead.

              BTW, according to my stats UML is 17-0 in Hockey East Tournament games when taking a 2 goal lead (of course, I may have made a mistake entering the data).

              Sean
              My numbers are all postseason, so it includes the NCAA tournament.
              Charter Member of darin's "UML Seven"

              "I just hate Boston College to be perfectly honest'' -Ken Dorsey
              "It's time for my favorite NCAA tradition ... that's right, rooting against BC!" -Bill Simmons

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Patman View Post
                Not much to talk about tonight. Most results went well tonight with the exception of union Clarkson. ECAC is a one bid league and Clarkson is IIRC the top spoiler. They won tonight. Meanwhile any at large charge Omaha could have made got snuffed out tonight. I suppose Miami could come back on Denver but I don't care right now

                All of this is slivers. Important game is tomorrow. Get loud
                Yup, this should be a tough one. Just need to stay out of the box and take care of business.

                Is this the last season for Bob Ellis?

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                • Originally posted by boblav1 View Post

                  Yup, this should be a tough one. Just need to stay out of the box and take care of business.

                  Is this the last season for Bob Ellis?
                  No way. You know how sentimental Bob is. Unless there's other issues Bob would have mentioned it long ago. That's my personal take. I could be wrong.
                  BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                  Jerseys I would like to have:
                  Skating Friar Jersey
                  AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                  UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                  Army Black Knight logo jersey


                  NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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                  • Bob stepped down running the athletics social media but i dont think he said hes done on the mic

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                    • 1-0 Lowell if the audio is to be believed, but I believe video
                      BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                      Jerseys I would like to have:
                      Skating Friar Jersey
                      AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                      UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                      Army Black Knight logo jersey


                      NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                      Comment


                      • 2-1 Lowell... the goal we gave up seemed to come after a series of defensive lapses. Gotta sharpen up. That UML penalty? What for?!?!?! I didn't see anything. Color guy on the NESN broadcast, Merrimack fanboy? Buried opportunities making a big difference for Lowell. Scoreline is accurate, the one that was given up was disappointing.
                        BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                        Jerseys I would like to have:
                        Skating Friar Jersey
                        AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                        UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                        Army Black Knight logo jersey


                        NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                        Comment


                        • Geez Meehan has a nice shot... 3-1... Merrimack still very capable though
                          BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                          Jerseys I would like to have:
                          Skating Friar Jersey
                          AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                          UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                          Army Black Knight logo jersey


                          NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                          Comment


                          • The goal says berglund, the play says Jonsson (sp?)... Lowell 4-1
                            BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                            Jerseys I would like to have:
                            Skating Friar Jersey
                            AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                            UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                            Army Black Knight logo jersey


                            NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                            Comment


                            • best 40 minutes in a long long time
                              BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                              Jerseys I would like to have:
                              Skating Friar Jersey
                              AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                              UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                              Army Black Knight logo jersey


                              NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                              Comment


                              • game far from over, don't like going full D for 20 minutes, penalty plus a 6x4 makes it 5-2... if they pull the goalie. Lowell's ENG strategy is a pure shell, you can't play 8 minutes like that if that's what happens
                                BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                                Jerseys I would like to have:
                                Skating Friar Jersey
                                AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                                UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                                Army Black Knight logo jersey


                                NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                                Comment

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