UMass Lowell 2021-2022: Which way are we going?

[Chiefof78]

Kudos to ScottK for pointing out the fact that Northeastern has one game in hand on Lowell and is likely to pickup 3 points against Vermont on Tuesday. Going to be a nail biting weekend against UNH for sure. Hopefully the coaching staff has figured out a better attack plan than that employed in the 3-0 shutout loss in the last game against UNH where UML was outplayed from the start. And Lowell needs to come out on fire for the next 6 periods and win both games to maintain or slightly improve their precarious pairwise ranking which is currently 15th. UML is currently on the bubble for sure even before the Hockey East playoffs begin. UML cannot replicate the poor 1st period performances of late including the last game against LIU. In my view that would prove disastrous against UNH. Even two wins this weekend still puts pressure on us to at least get to the Garden if not the championship game to secure a bid to the NCAA's.

Just as an FYI I like College Hockey News' pairwise application as it allows you to modify game results or project un-played games, if one is inclined to do so. It also allows one to do a what if analysis on past games which points to lost opportunities for UML. If Lowell did not allow the late third period come backs that resulted in a tie to LIU early in the season and for pairwise purposes the tie against UMASS (the Shoot out win) UML's pairwise would be a slightly improved 13th.

Lastly, I am hoping UML has 2 victories this weekend and we end up third in Hockey East. I am am also hoping that Merrimack gets the draw against BU as BU is much improved from our early meetings.


Go Riverhawks!!!!

[boblav1]

That partially depends on what happens between NU and UVM tomorrow. If Northeastern wins in regulation (likely), then the only way Lowell can finish second is with a sweep of UNH in regulation both nights, and MC takes 4 of 6 points from NU. Any other scenario puts Lowell 3rd or lower.

Vermont defeated NU 1-0. The Hawks are currently at 14th in the pairwise. Need to take care of business this weekend.

[ScottK]

That partially depends on what happens between NU and UVM tomorrow. If Northeastern wins in regulation (likely), then the only way Lowell can finish second is with a sweep of UNH in regulation both nights, and MC takes 4 of 6 points from NU. Any other scenario puts Lowell 3rd or lower.

With Vermont's win tonight, things change a bit.

Lowell can get to 2nd with a regulation sweep of UNH, and the MC/NU series resulting in Northeastern taking between 2 and 5 points from Merrimack (or conversely, Merrimack taking between 1 and 4 points from NU).

If Lowell takes 5 or 6 points from UNH, they will finish in no lower than 3rd.

If Lowell takes 4 points, they will still clinch a bye, but the tiebreakers start getting complicated, because there could be as many as 5 teams at 44 points.

[UMLFan]

With Vermont's win tonight, things change a bit.

Lowell can get to 2nd with a regulation sweep of UNH, and the MC/NU series resulting in Northeastern taking between 2 and 5 points from Merrimack (or conversely, Merrimack taking between 1 and 4 points from NU).

If Lowell takes 5 or 6 points from UNH, they will finish in no lower than 3rd.

If Lowell takes 4 points, they will still clinch a bye, but the tiebreakers start getting complicated, because there could be as many as 5 teams at 44 points.

As a famous a-hole once said ... Just Win Baby.

[medic4419]

Vermont's win over Northeastern may be a preview of possible upsets in the HE tournament. I'm not a fan of the single elimination format.

[Patman]

Importance of non-conference. Here's the impact of swapping the worst loss for a win for each hockey east team in aggregate... a W/L shift of 22 for the league

10->3 UMass
15->10 BU
14->11 Lowell
17->12 Merrimack
16->13 Northeastern
20->15 Connecticut
19->16 Providence
31->24 UNH
32->26 Boston College
52->42 Maine
58->49 Vermont

Big difference. HEA pushing 6 bids instead of the outside shot of 1. As it stands. Because of the difference between everybody and Ohio State.... 1, hope OSU and MTU have crap weekends... two, sweep your weekend.

[Patman]

4-5 chances so far and i'm not upset like last week because they're all "probability" chances... sometimes they fall sometimes they don't, nothing got mishandled as such.... 1-1 but i like the activity

[Patman]

Johnson taking a penalty from the bench... what the hell buddy

[Middle Street]

Nice win. With Uconn losing, Lowell has clinched home ice correct?

Also, though still unlikely, if Lowell wins tomorrow and NU and Umass both lose, I think Lowell shares the reg season trophy with Umass? That would annoy the flagship

[UMLSec123]

Nice win. With Uconn losing, Lowell has clinched home ice correct?

Also, though still unlikely, if Lowell wins tomorrow and NU and Umass both lose, I think Lowell shares the reg season trophy with Umass? That would annoy the flagship

As of now we have only clinched a 1st round bye. We could still slip to 5th if BU and Merrimack both win in regulation tomorrow and we lose in regulation

[Middle Street]

Thank you, I don’t think BU’s win was updated in the standings when I checked earlier.

[Patman]

tech and osu both won so the last playoff berth if we look at #14 belongs to the second best team in HEA at this rate, so keep winning until we can't.

[ScottK]

A Northeastern regulation win today means Lowell can finish no higher than the #3 seed. A Lowell win in regulation or OT means they will finish no lower than the #3 seed. Lowell will be the #2 seed with a regulation win and Northeastern winning in OT or losing, or with an OT win and Northeastern loss in OT or regulation. Lowell can still fall to #5 with a regulation loss, and a Merrimack win (OT or regulation) and a BU regulation win.

Lowell can get a share of the regular season title with a regulation win, a UMass regulation loss, and Northeastern loss in OT or regulation.

Lowell loses in OT/Shootout
#3 seed with a Merrimack loss or OT win

Lowell loses in regulation
#3 seed with a Northeastern win (regulation or OT) and BU failing to win in regulation
#4 seed with a Merrimack regulation win and BU failing to win in regulation or with a Merrimack OT/Shootout win AND a BU OT/shootout win
#5 seed with BU winning in regulation and Merrimack winning in OT or regulation.

In the event of a 4-way tie at 44 points, Merrimack gets the #2 seed, Lowell #3, Northeastern #4 and BU #5 (if I calculated it correctly).

In a 3-way tie between Lowell, Merrimack, and Northeastern at 44 points, it would be Merrimack #2, Lowell #3, and Northeastern #4.

In a 3-way tie between Lowell, Merrimack, and BU at 43 points, it would be Merrimack #3, Lowell #4, and BU #5.

[boblav1]

Thanks Scott. Just take care of business.

[Patman]

I'm starting to wonder if our style is better on the bigger ice