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UMass Lowell 2021-2022: Which way are we going?

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  • Originally posted by medic4419 View Post
    Midseason look down the road, does ten more wins put UML in the tourney? Looks doable, especially if they get past the first round in the HE tourney.
    I'd say more like 14.

    edit: i hope I'm being too tough... at least 12, strength of schedule is iffy.
    BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

    Jerseys I would like to have:
    Skating Friar Jersey
    AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
    UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
    Army Black Knight logo jersey


    NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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    • Originally posted by Patman View Post

      I'd say more like 14.

      edit: i hope I'm being too tough... at least 12, strength of schedule is iffy.
      As of now, they have 15 regular season games left (unless Bentley gets rescheduled). If they lose in the first round of the playoffs, you're looking at 16 games. Asking for 14 (or even 12) wins is a lot.
      Monty

      2011-2012 NCAA Tournament Participants
      2012-2013 Hockey East Regular Season Champions, Hockey East Tournament Champions, and Frozen Four Participants
      2013-2014 Hockey East Tournament Champions and NCAA Tournament Participants
      2015-2016 NCAA Tournament Participants
      2016-2017 Hockey East Regular Season Co-Champions, Hockey East Tournament Champions and NCAA Tournament Participants

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      • Originally posted by medic4419 View Post
        Midseason look down the road, does ten more wins put UML in the tourney? Looks doable, especially if they get past the first round in the HE tourney.
        I think they would have a very good chance, but it's not a lock. I also believe it would depend on the if those end up being regulation wins vs. OT. The 3x3 OT wins are weighed slightly higher than a tie, but are recorded as full wins when comparing team records.

        At this point, I'm just hoping Lowell gets more than 3 points this weekend. Losses this weekend will hurt their chances greatly.

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        • Any chance we get an earlier start Saturday since the Pats are playing at night?

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          • Originally posted by medic4419 View Post

            At least it's just a postponement and not a cancelation. A couple of good showings against Bentley would help in the pairwise since they are leading Atlantic Hockey.
            Bentley is #34 PW. Wins won't help anywhere near as much as losses would hurt.

            (And both of my nephews graduated from UML... I'm a fan, not a troll.)

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            • Originally posted by UML View Post
              Any chance we get an earlier start Saturday since the Pats are playing at night?
              Not sure. NESN is scheduled to broadcast the game at 7:00 pm. My NESN lineup has a women's game (MC-PC) on prior to Lowell and Maine. According to the HE site that game has been postponed. So maybe there's some flexibility on the start time.

              https://hockeyeastonline.com/article...january-11.php

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              • o
                Originally posted by UMLFan View Post
                As of now, they have 15 regular season games left (unless Bentley gets rescheduled). If they lose in the first round of the playoffs, you're looking at 16 games. Asking for 14 (or even 12) wins is a lot.
                yeah, well, strength of schedule is going to stink for the league... I will admit i haven't even tried to run the numbers. I don't even know where to start in computing RPI these days without somebody else checking my work. If i had something i could plug in hypothetical results. Mostly because I'd want to see if our SoS would get any better. Our league kinda sucks and while we're good we aren't that good. We need additional offensive contributors.

                edit; apparently CHN's website you can add results from scheduled games... 10-5 win the first 10, lose the next 5 gets us to 12th.. but past years have shown this can go UP as much as 4 and down as much as 6 (pulling numbers out of my butt) so a lot depends on others. 11-4 is 9th, 12-3 still 7th... and saving before i get to the lower batches.

                9-6 is 16th, 8-7 is 18th, 7-8 is 18th again and right now i don't want to verify because i'm lazy and this is annoying. 15-0 gets you to the top, 0-15 drops us to 41st.

                None of the above is randomized, no rescheduling... win the first x lose the last y. no playoffs. Playoffs cap out at one loss this year unlike pass years where it could be 2.

                Pairwise moves with teams around it. There is an UPWARD bias because HEA is not likely to have much of a "quality win bonus" so teams like Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Omaha could ping us from behind playing as expected because they can pick an unlikely win against stronger competition. Like every season its all a mess until it isn't.

                If you could guarantee me with reschedules 12-5-1 (23-8-4) I would feel comfortable. 11-6-1 (22-9-4) and start munching on those cigarettes
                Last edited by Patman; 01-13-2022, 12:16 AM.
                BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                Jerseys I would like to have:
                Skating Friar Jersey
                AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                Army Black Knight logo jersey


                NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                Comment


                • Originally posted by UML View Post
                  Any chance we get an earlier start Saturday since the Pats are playing at night?
                  Given that more than half the team had COVID last week, I highly doubt Norm would agree to a quicker turnaround between games.

                  Charter Member of darin's "UML Seven"

                  "I just hate Boston College to be perfectly honest'' -Ken Dorsey
                  "It's time for my favorite NCAA tradition ... that's right, rooting against BC!" -Bill Simmons

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                  • Lowell Sun from today:
                    https://www.lowellsun.com/2022/01/13...-umass-lowell/

                    Bad News - Team will be short handed this weekend due to the covid outbreak.
                    Good News - Lucas Condotta may return to the lineup this weekend.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Middle Street View Post
                      Lowell Sun from today:
                      https://www.lowellsun.com/2022/01/13...-umass-lowell/

                      Bad News - Team will be short handed this weekend due to the covid outbreak.
                      Good News - Lucas Condotta may return to the lineup this weekend.
                      They only had 11 players able to practice last week. Ouch.
                      Monty

                      2011-2012 NCAA Tournament Participants
                      2012-2013 Hockey East Regular Season Champions, Hockey East Tournament Champions, and Frozen Four Participants
                      2013-2014 Hockey East Tournament Champions and NCAA Tournament Participants
                      2015-2016 NCAA Tournament Participants
                      2016-2017 Hockey East Regular Season Co-Champions, Hockey East Tournament Champions and NCAA Tournament Participants

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by UMLFan View Post
                        They only had 11 players able to practice last week. Ouch.
                        And none of the 11 was a goalie.
                        Charter Member of darin's "UML Seven"

                        "I just hate Boston College to be perfectly honest'' -Ken Dorsey
                        "It's time for my favorite NCAA tradition ... that's right, rooting against BC!" -Bill Simmons

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                        • The major against Lee is legit. Hockey East refs are pathetic for letting Lee get beat on. HEA refs are further pathetic for matching up a different set of calls on that play. Lee has problems but the reffing is disgraceful.

                          edit: and that was interference, bad call refs.
                          Last edited by Patman; 01-14-2022, 09:37 PM.
                          BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                          Jerseys I would like to have:
                          Skating Friar Jersey
                          AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                          UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                          Army Black Knight logo jersey


                          NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                          Comment


                          • I never understood why there wasnt an additional 5 on that play. The 3rd man in was reckless and he hit Lee up high...and thats hard to do

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                            • Originally posted by umlhockey22490 View Post
                              I never understood why there wasnt an additional 5 on that play. The 3rd man in was reckless and he hit Lee up high...and thats hard to do
                              I was also surprised they didn't call a penalty on the Maine player. He even went to the box, but nothing was called.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by boblav1 View Post

                                I was also surprised they didn't call a penalty on the Maine player. He even went to the box, but nothing was called.
                                It's always strange when a player goes to the bench knowing he deserves it, and is then told ... nah, you good. ***?

                                Thought we looked off to start but the three goals gave us the comfort we needed for this, because the second and third was basically all Maine. I kept thinking don't let them back into this game, not necessarily that they get a point from the game, but enough to not give them something to build on tonight. Too much sloppy play the second and third, and yes, I think a part of that was related to legs not being there from lack of games.

                                On a side note, I was actually impressed by the crowd last night. I'm expecting less than 1k tonight though (no matter what the "announced" attendance is).
                                Monty

                                2011-2012 NCAA Tournament Participants
                                2012-2013 Hockey East Regular Season Champions, Hockey East Tournament Champions, and Frozen Four Participants
                                2013-2014 Hockey East Tournament Champions and NCAA Tournament Participants
                                2015-2016 NCAA Tournament Participants
                                2016-2017 Hockey East Regular Season Co-Champions, Hockey East Tournament Champions and NCAA Tournament Participants

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