Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

[JB]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

"The little program I wrote will assign .12876112356 of a point." For what?

So in an example where two teams play 10 games and, going into the series, Team A wins 60% of the time and Team B wins 40%, do you:
A) Assign 12 points to Team A and 8 to team B by win percentage, or
B) Assign every game to Team A because Team A is more likely to win each individual game by a 3:2 ratio?

In my "analysis" (or shot in the dark if you prefer) nothing is based on a game or a match-up, it is all averages.

It all started with who has the toughest road in, UNH for example plays PC(10th), UVM(7th), NU(8th) and BC(2nd). On paper that doesn't appear to be a tough end of the year in reality it is the 4th easiest of the 10. I am still playing with strength of the remaining schedule. Right now I just look at opponents record but haven't factored home road splits. Again for UNH 5 home to 2 road seems friendly.

So looking at the average opponent left toss in home vs road records of each specific team, I figured out the average number of points each specific team would get. In this "method" (word is probably bit strong, but a dart board is a method) nobody get 2 points from any game because no team has a perfect record (overall, home, road etc).

Clear as mud?

[Priceless]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

Northeastern 27 33
Merrimack 27 32
Mass.-Lowell 27 30
Vermont 27 29
Boston College 27 28
Massachusetts 27 28
Boston University 27 27
New Hampshire 27 27
Maine 27 24
Providence 27 12

[BUT09]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

Northeastern 27 33
Merrimack 27 32
Mass.-Lowell 27 30
Vermont 27 29
Boston College 27 28
Massachusetts 27 28
Boston University 27 27
New Hampshire 27 27
Maine 27 24
Providence 27 12

You have two of the top three dropping to 8th and 9th? This seems a little strange.

[Priceless]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

You have two of the top three dropping to 8th and 9th? This seems a little strange.

You're right. This seems more likely.

Merrimack 27 32
Northeastern 27 31
Mass.-Lowell 27 30
Massachusetts 27 30
Vermont 27 29
Boston College 27 28
Boston University 27 27
New Hampshire 27 27
Maine 27 24
Providence 27 12

Congrats to Merrimack!

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

--- Home Lock - 34 (UMA/BU/UML) ---
--- In - 31 (MC) ---
UNH 29 - 41 [1-9]
BC 24 - 38 [1-9]
ME 24 - 38 [1-9]
UMA 22 - 34 [1-9]
BU 20 - 34 [1-10]
UML 20 - 34 [1-10]
NU 19 - 33 [1-10]
UVM 19 - 33 [1-10]
MC 15 - 31 [1-10]
--- Home Eligible - 23 (UMA/UML/BU/...) ---
PC 10 - 22 [6-10]
--- Out - 19 (NU/UVM) ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - UVMx2, @NU/NU, BC/@BC
BC - UML, @NU/NU, MC, UMA, @UNH/UNH
ME – @BU, UMLx2, @MCx2, UMAx2
UMA - @NU, @MC/MC, @BC, @MEx2
BU - ME, @PC/PC, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
UML - @BC, @MEx2, PC/@PC, UVMx2
UVM - MC, @UNHx2, BUx2, @UMLx2
NU - UMA, BC/@BC, UNH/@UNH, @BU/BU
MC - @UVM, UMA/@UMA, @BC, MEx2, @PC/PC
PC – BU/@BU, @UML/UML, MC/@MC

This weekend features three series where current home ice teams (BC, Maine, UMA) are playing a pair with teams that would be on the road, if the playoffs were set on Thursday (UML, BU, NU, respectively). After Round One, those "road" teams are 3-0.

Meanwhile, in the only game between teams in the bottom half, Merrimack got its first road point of the season by matching UVM in the first of two at the Gut.

These four results take a race that was tight among the four "road" spots and draws them all closer to the three teams ahead of them for home ice. There are now only five points separating 2nd place from 8th with seven games to play (six for UMA).

In the final pair, 1st place UNH was knotted at 2 after 2 at home with last place PC before the game broke open on the strength of a 3rd period Hat Trick by Bobby Butler (who also had the first UNH goal). That's the only game of the weekend for both teams and restores the five-point lead that UNH had on 2nd place before being swept by Maine last weekend, while shrinking PC's chances of getting out of the cellar.

In fact, PC's lost opportunity combined with the remaining schedule leaves them 6th at best, with a tiebreaker at 22 and the last three teams a point behind at 21. The top four can no longer be caught by PC, and even though any of the lower teams could be caught and end up 10th, at least one of them has to also finish ahead of PC.

Merrimack, however, could still come in first, so most of the ranges are still fairly flexible.

The Home Eligible line stays at 23 (albeit in at least a four-way tie) for the time being. The same is true for Home Lock at 34, for now. "In" drops to 31 because MC only picked up one of the two available points on the night.

[JB]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

--- Home Lock - 34 (UMA/BU/UML) ---
--- In - 31 (MC) ---
UNH 29 - 41 [1-9]
BC 24 - 38 [1-9]
ME 24 - 38 [1-9]
UMA 22 - 34 [1-9]
BU 20 - 34 [1-10]
UML 20 - 34 [1-10]
NU 19 - 33 [1-10]
UVM 19 - 33 [1-10]
MC 15 - 31 [1-10]
--- Home Eligible - 23 (UMA/UML/BU/...) ---
PC 10 - 22 [6-10]
--- Out - 19 (NU/UVM) ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - UVMx2, @NU/NU, BC/@BC
BC - UML, @NU/NU, MC, UMA, @UNH/UNH
ME – @BU, UMLx2, @MCx2, UMAx2
UMA - @NU, @MC/MC, @BC, @MEx2
BU - ME, @PC/PC, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
UML - @BC, @MEx2, PC/@PC, UVMx2
UVM - MC, @UNHx2, BUx2, @UMLx2
NU - UMA, BC/@BC, UNH/@UNH, @BU/BU
MC - @UVM, UMA/@UMA, @BC, MEx2, @PC/PC
PC – BU/@BU, @UML/UML, MC/@MC

Looks to me like a UVM win tonight a UNH is IN as MC max goes to 29 and UNH already holds the tie breaker.

I don't think anything else can happen based on current points situation.

[mookie1995]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

I know. I rounded to the nearest whole number. I didn't go game by game I took more of a marco average opponent point of view. The little program I wrote will assign .12876112356 of a point. The order was surprising that the tie breaks and the points all worked out (spooky actually). The lost points are consumed in the fractional points. Also suprising is all rounded down.

Probably should have commented on this with the rest of the non sense.

“If you see a snake, just kill it - don't take more of a macro average opponent point of view on snakes and assign .12876112346th of a point.” Ross Perot

[Aerman]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

As a UNH fan I was having a hard time believing that at this late point in the season the 'Cats could still fall out of the playoffs given their current position. So, I took a very simple look at the situation without trying to evaluate the copious permutations.

There are 34 games left (assuming I can add) and therefore 68 points available. I started with BC and began awarding enough points to catch or pass UNH, depending upon who held the tie-breaker. Assuming UNH didn't secure another point, I still ran out of points as I got to MC. That's not to say that MC can't catch UNH, but to do so they would need some of the points I gave to someone else.

My conclusion is that UNH can't actually finish below 8th, and is therefore in. This doesn't effect the earlier conclusions about where any particular team can finish (except UNH), just accounts for the fact(?) that there aren't enough total points left for eight teams to pass UNH.

Correct? or wishful thinking?

[Priceless]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

As a UNH fan I was having a hard time believing that at this late point in the season the 'Cats could still fall out of the playoffs given their current position. So, I took a very simple look at the situation without trying to evaluate the copious permutations.

There are 34 games left (assuming I can add) and therefore 68 points available. I started with BC and began awarding enough points to catch or pass UNH, depending upon who held the tie-breaker. Assuming UNH didn't secure another point, I still ran out of points as I got to MC. That's not to say that MC can't catch UNH, but to do so they would need some of the points I gave to someone else.

My conclusion is that UNH can't actually finish below 8th, and is therefore in. This doesn't effect the earlier conclusions about where any particular team can finish (except UNH), just accounts for the fact(?) that there aren't enough total points left for eight teams to pass UNH.

Correct? or wishful thinking?

You appear to be correct. Because of the remaining schedule, there can be an 8-way tie for 1st at 29 points, but someone else always finishes 9th. UNH has already clinched a playoff berth.

[JB]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

My conclusion is that UNH can't actually finish below 8th, and is therefore in. This doesn't effect the earlier conclusions about where any particular team can finish (except UNH), just accounts for the fact(?) that there aren't enough total points left for eight teams to pass UNH.

Correct? or wishful thinking?

Most likely correct. Nobody wants to detail the rest of the season out to this level. A MC loss tonight we don't need to do every combination and permutation to figure it out. Remember you need to account for tie breakers which could allow teams to pass UNH with the same number of points.

[Priceless]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

New Hampshire	27	33
Boston College	27	32
Boston U	27	32
Massachusetts	27	31
Mass.-Lowell	27	29
Northeastern	27	28
Merrimack	27	26
Vermont 	27	25
Maine	        27	24
Providence	27	10

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

--- Home Lock - 34 (BU) ---
--- In - 31 (MC) ---
UNH 29 - 41 [1-9]
BC 26 - 38 [1-9]
ME 24 - 36 [1-9]
BU 22 - 34 [1-10]
UMA 22 - 32 [1-9]
NU 21 - 33 [1-10]
UML 20 - 32 [1-10]
UVM 19 - 31 [1-10]
MC 17 - 31 [1-10]
--- Home Eligible - 24 (BU/NU/UML/UVM) ---
PC 10 - 22 [6-10]
--- Out - 19 (UVM) ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - UVMx2, @NU/NU, BC/@BC
BC - @NU/NU, MC, UMA, @UNH/UNH
ME – UMLx2, @MCx2, UMAx2
BU - @PC/PC, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
UMA - @MC/MC, @BC, @MEx2
NU - BC/@BC, UNH/@UNH, @BU/BU
UML - @MEx2, PC/@PC, UVMx2
UVM - @UNHx2, BUx2, @UMLx2
MC - UMA/@UMA, @BC, MEx2, @PC/PC
PC – BU/@BU, @UML/UML, MC/@MC

Where the lower seeded teams in each matchup going into the weekend took 7 of 10 points on Friday, they continued their success by taking 6 of 8 on Saturday.

Factoring in the sweeps by BU and NU - the latter over UMA - and the split by UML, there's a logjam for the fourth and final home ice spot. UMA has been caught by BU at 22. NU is a point back at 21 and UML is a game back at 20, but everyone has a game in hand on UMA, who only has five games left.

BU already has the tb over UMA, so if the playoffs were seeded right now, UMA would be on the road to Agganis. In fact, BU has the tb over every team that they are finished with, except UNH (BC, ME, UMA, UML, MC). Further, each of those series are 2-1 BU (v UNH is 0-2-1) - and in every case except UML, BU lost the first game before winning the final two. With UML, BU won the first game in OT, before losing the 2nd and winning the 3rd, fittingly, on "Wear Red" Day. In all three BU/UML meetings, the road team won by one.

(The Maine sweep, combined with BU hitting the BOGO marketing target of the neighboring chicken restaurant, allowed Terrier fans to experience a literal "winner, winner, chicken dinner" weekend.)

If NU and UML were assumed to win their games in hand, UMA would be sixth seed by virtue of their 2-1 series win earning them the tb over UML.

For UMA, if they want to stay a factor for home ice, they're going to need to find a way to get back to their successful early season stride and away from their ongoing 1-of-6 stumble.

UML, too, has to break out of their recent rut, having lost 4-of-5 and 6-of-9.

On the flip side of those slumps are NU - having won four straight overall, five straight league games, and six of their last seven, both overall and in the league - and BU - four straight and 8-of-10 in HE, 9-of-12 overall since New Year's.

On a similar up-tick, the Warriors of Merrimack are on a 4-2-1 run including, for them, a significant first point and then first win away from the friendly confines of Volpe.

UNH's lead on 2nd place BC is back down to 3 - courtesy, in part, of a very late GWG by BC's Kreider last night. Over the next two weeks, UNH will host a back-sliding Catamount team (0-1-2 in last 3, 1-2-3 in last 6) for a pair and then a home-and-home with NU while BC heads into a rare Friday-Sunday-Tuesday-Friday skein. All of that leads into a final weekend head-to-head home-and-home between the current top two.

After Maine's sweep of UNH last week helped make things more interesting by keeping UNH in reach of the peloton, their being swept by BU this week prevents them from moving up on, or even keeping pace with, UNH and BC who got two points each this weekend. It also keeps them within striking distance of the snarl of teams right behind them, with a mere two point margin.

With UMA's loss, the teams from 4th to 8th are all within three points of each other. Factor in Merrimack's win and the possibility of two more points from their game-in-hand on the field, and you could arguably add 9th place into that Gordian Knot, meaning the difference between "home ice" and "out of the playoffs" is razor thin.

Outside of all that excitement is idle Providence. Part of their upcoming problem is that MC keeps adding points, not only extending the distance between PC and the rest of the conference, but shrinking the margin of error for PC to find a way to move up. With thirty games left in the HE regular season, PC plays in only six and the rest of those points have to go somewhere. Merrimack being a part of that mix doesn't do PC any favors.

What is in PC's favor is that all of their remaining series are against teams still mathematically within reach (BU, UML, MC). The Friars not only have to make up seven points on MC, likely including a sweep on the final weekend, but every point that MC doesn't get moves the rest of the pack along like a carrot at the other end of a Friar-held stick. Of course, ultimately, for PC, the goal is not just to pass MC to avoid the absolute cellar, but to pass someone else too, and extend their season.

Add in the games where the teams within reach play each other (BU/NU, BU/UVM, UML/UVM) and PC's uphill climb gets worse. If the teams ahead of them split each series the rest of the way, PC will be out of the playoffs by next Sunday. (They'd have 12, with a max of 20, and 8th place UVM would have 21.) PC's only real hope is that the points concentrate with certain teams and other teams get little to none (very, very close to none). They don't have to catch everyone, they only have to catch two.

That said, they could still end up 6th, and could still take the tb from BU and tie them at 22 - although not necessarily at the same time. That means that PC's range stays at 6-10 and BU can still fall to 10th place. At the other margins, MC winning and UNH being idle means that no one else's ranges move either.

MC keeps the In line at 31. UVM losing keeps the Out line at 19. 4th place BU keeping their max at 34 keeps the Home Lock line in place.

The last thing to figure out is Home Eligible. Starting from the edges and working our way in...

Since UNH, BC and Maine are already ahead of 4th, them taking all available points doesn't affect the math of possibilities for that final slot. Since PC can't reach it, ditto. After all of that, MC can't reach it either, so they can win their last undetermined series (UMA) and have no impact - which also finishes up UMA's schedule as all losses and leaves them at 22. That leaves us with the following unaccounted for series where we need to distribute points to minimize whoever ends up in 4th: BU/UVM, BU/NU, UML/UVM. The teams would all be starting from their current point totals.

So... looking at the top two of that group, BU and NU play two. Those are the points that are going to be hardest to minimize when resetting the benchmark. Splitting up those four points means that one of the two has to have at least 24. Since those would be the last of NU's undetermined games, and points, let's give that distinction to NU with a 3-1 balance. That means the new target to stay under for keeping 4th mathematically alive for those below it is 24. That's now easy enough to stay within by having UML sweep UVM, putting them at 24, and having UVM sweep BU, leaving both at 23.

Realize that this is not a prediction. Merely a model to see what's mathematically possible. If a team loses tbs to NU and UML, that doesn't mean they are out of the running. BU could split with NU and put BU at 24 and NU at 23. Likewise, UVM could steal a point at Tsongas and be the one at 24 with UML at 23. Any of the teams that you place at 23 in any scenario could take another point from somewhere else on their schedule making it a three or four way tie at 24. For that matter, UMA could hit 24 and MC could hit 24, adding to the dog pile. In fact, all six of those teams could still, mathematically, be tied at 24 at the same time - meaning that the final home ice team, the team missing the playoffs at ninth, and everyone in between would all be placing their seed in the hands of the tie-breaker math.

Also realize that this does not mean that PC is actually out, since the foursome of BU/NU/UML/UVM all hit at least 23 above and PC's max is 22. Those are scenarios (scenaria?) where we are trying to minimize the points held by the 4th seed to see how low it is possible to keep it. For PC to reach 6th, a different, almost diametrically-opposite, strategy is used. Instead of distributing the points as evenly as we can, we'd concentrate the points on fewer teams, leaving as many teams as possible for PC to catch - similar to piling all possible points on teams 1-3 in the above calculations, except also for teams in 4th and 5th as well. I've run the numbers and PC can still get 6th, using tbs.

All that these mathematical hypotheses mean is that, as of right now, if you can still reach 24, you are still alive for the final Home Ice spot and, therefore, Home Eligible.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

--- Home Lock - 34 (BU) ---
UNH 29 - 41 [1-8]
--- In - 29 (MC/Field) ---
BC 26 - 38 [1-9]
ME 24 - 36 [1-9]
BU 22 - 34 [1-10]
UMA 22 - 32 [1-9]
NU 21 - 33 [1-10]
UML 20 - 32 [1-10]
UVM 19 - 31 [1-10]
MC 17 - 31 [1-10]
--- Home Eligible - 24 (BU/NU/UML/UVM) ---
PC 10 - 22 [6-10]
--- Out - 19 (UVM) ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - UVMx2, @NU/NU, BC/@BC
BC - @NU/NU, MC, UMA, @UNH/UNH
ME – UMLx2, @MCx2, UMAx2
BU - @PC/PC, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
UMA - @MC/MC, @BC, @MEx2
NU - BC/@BC, UNH/@UNH, @BU/BU
UML - @MEx2, PC/@PC, UVMx2
UVM - @UNHx2, BUx2, @UMLx2
MC - UMA/@UMA, @BC, MEx2, @PC/PC
PC – BU/@BU, @UML/UML, MC/@MC

As a UNH fan I was having a hard time believing that at this late point in the season the 'Cats could still fall out of the playoffs given their current position. So, I took a very simple look at the situation without trying to evaluate the copious permutations.

There are 34 games left (assuming I can add) and therefore 68 points available. I started with BC and began awarding enough points to catch or pass UNH, depending upon who held the tie-breaker. Assuming UNH didn't secure another point, I still ran out of points as I got to MC. That's not to say that MC can't catch UNH, but to do so they would need some of the points I gave to someone else.

My conclusion is that UNH can't actually finish below 8th, and is therefore in. This doesn't effect the earlier conclusions about where any particular team can finish (except UNH), just accounts for the fact(?) that there aren't enough total points left for eight teams to pass UNH.

Correct? or wishful thinking?

You appear to be correct. Because of the remaining schedule, there can be an 8-way tie for 1st at 29 points, but someone else always finishes 9th. UNH has already clinched a playoff berth.

Most likely correct. Nobody wants to detail the rest of the season out to this level. A MC loss tonight we don't need to do every combination and permutation to figure it out. Remember you need to account for tie breakers which could allow teams to pass UNH with the same number of points.

I went back in and did the combo math. I can get a scenario where UNH is behind or tied with (losing the tb) all except PC, Maine and UMA, with the UMA/Maine series pending and each team at 25. Since ME already has the UNH tb, I can get UNH as low as 8th, but I can't get them to 9th.

The Wildcats are the first team officially in.

That also drops the "In" line to 29.

[sterlippo1]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

--- Home Lock - 34 (BU) ---
--- In - 31 (MC) ---
UNH 29 - 41 [1-9]
BC 26 - 38 [1-9]
ME 24 - 36 [1-9]
BU 22 - 34 [1-10]
UMA 22 - 32 [1-9]
NU 21 - 33 [1-10]
UML 20 - 32 [1-10]
UVM 19 - 31 [1-10]
MC 17 - 31 [1-10]
--- Home Eligible - 24 (BU/NU/UML/UVM) ---
PC 10 - 22 [6-10]
--- Out - 19 (UVM) ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - UVMx2, @NU/NU, BC/@BC
BC - @NU/NU, MC, UMA, @UNH/UNH
ME – UMLx2, @MCx2, UMAx2
BU - @PC/PC, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
UMA - @MC/MC, @BC, @MEx2
NU - BC/@BC, UNH/@UNH, @BU/BU
UML - @MEx2, PC/@PC, UVMx2
UVM - @UNHx2, BUx2, @UMLx2
MC - UMA/@UMA, @BC, MEx2, @PC/PC
PC – BU/@BU, @UML/UML, MC/@MC

Where the lower seeded teams in each matchup going into the weekend took 7 of 10 points on Friday, they continued their success by taking 6 of 8 on Saturday.

Factoring in the sweeps by BU and NU - the latter over UMA - and the split by UML, there's a logjam for the fourth and final home ice spot. UMA has been caught by BU at 22. NU is a point back at 21 and UML is a game back at 20, but everyone has a game in hand on UMA, who only has five games left.

BU already has the tb over UMA, so if the playoffs were seeded right now, UMA would be on the road to Agganis. In fact, BU has the tb over every team that they are finished with, except UNH (BC, ME, UMA, UML, MC). Further, each of those series are 2-1 BU (v UNH is 0-2-1) - and in every case except UML, BU lost the first game before winning the final two. With UML, BU won the first game in OT, before losing the 2nd and winning the 3rd, fittingly, on "Wear Red" Day. In all three BU/UML meetings, the road team won by one.

(The Maine sweep, combined with BU hitting the BOGO marketing target of the neighboring chicken restaurant, allowed Terrier fans to experience a literal "winner, winner, chicken dinner" weekend.)

If NU and UML were assumed to win their games in hand, UMA would be sixth seed by virtue of their 2-1 series win earning them the tb over UML.

For UMA, if they want to stay a factor for home ice, they're going to need to find a way to get back to their successful early season stride and away from their ongoing 1-of-6 stumble.

UML, too, has to break out of their recent rut, having lost 4-of-5 and 6-of-9.

On the flip side of those slumps are NU - having won four straight overall, five straight league games, and six of their last seven, both overall and in the league - and BU - four straight and 8-of-10 in HE, 9-of-12 overall since New Year's.

On a similar up-tick, the Warriors of Merrimack are on a 4-2-1 run including, for them, a significant first point and then first win away from the friendly confines of Volpe.

UNH's lead on 2nd place BC is back down to 3 - courtesy, in part, of a very late GWG by BC's Kreider last night. Over the next two weeks, UNH will host a back-sliding Catamount team (0-1-2 in last 3, 1-2-3 in last 6) for a pair and then a home-and-home with NU while BC heads into a rare Friday-Sunday-Tuesday-Friday skein. All of that leads into a final weekend head-to-head home-and-home between the current top two.

After Maine's sweep of UNH last week helped make things more interesting by keeping UNH in reach of the peloton, their being swept by BU this week prevents them from moving up on, or even keeping pace with, UNH and BC who got two points each this weekend. It also keeps them within striking distance of the snarl of teams right behind them, with a mere two point margin.

With UMA's loss, the teams from 4th to 8th are all within three points of each other. Factor in Merrimack's win and the possibility of two more points from their game-in-hand on the field, and you could arguably add 9th place into that Gordian Knot, meaning the difference between "home ice" and "out of the playoffs" is razor thin.

Outside of all that excitement is idle Providence. Part of their upcoming problem is that MC keeps adding points, not only extending the distance between PC and the rest of the conference, but shrinking the margin of error for PC to find a way to move up. With thirty games left in the HE regular season, PC plays in only six and the rest of those points have to go somewhere. Merrimack being a part of that mix doesn't do PC any favors.

What is in PC's favor is that all of their remaining series are against teams still mathematically within reach (BU, UML, MC). The Friars not only have to make up seven points on MC, likely including a sweep on the final weekend, but every point that MC doesn't get moves the rest of the pack along like a carrot at the other end of a Friar-held stick. Of course, ultimately, for PC, the goal is not just to pass MC to avoid the absolute cellar, but to pass someone else too, and extend their season.

Add in the games where the teams within reach play each other (BU/NU, BU/UVM, UML/UVM) and PC's uphill climb gets worse. If the teams ahead of them split each series the rest of the way, PC will be out of the playoffs by next Sunday. (They'd have 12, with a max of 20, and 8th place UVM would have 21.) PC's only real hope is that the points concentrate with certain teams and other teams get little to none (very, very close to none). They don't have to catch everyone, they only have to catch two.

That said, they could still end up 6th, and could still take the tb from BU and tie them at 22 - although not necessarily at the same time. That means that PC's range stays at 6-10 and BU can still fall to 10th place. At the other margins, MC winning and UNH being idle means that no one else's ranges move either.

MC keeps the In line at 31. UVM losing keeps the Out line at 19. 4th place BU keeping their max at 34 keeps the Home Lock line in place.

The last thing to figure out is Home Eligible. Starting from the edges and working our way in...

Since UNH, BC and Maine are already ahead of 4th, them taking all available points doesn't affect the math of possibilities for that final slot. Since PC can't reach it, ditto. After all of that, MC can't reach it either, so they can win their last undetermined series (UMA) and have no impact - which also finishes up UMA's schedule as all losses and leaves them at 22. That leaves us with the following unaccounted for series where we need to distribute points to minimize whoever ends up in 4th: BU/UVM, BU/NU, UML/UVM. The teams would all be starting from their current point totals.

So... looking at the top two of that group, BU and NU play two. Those are the points that are going to be hardest to minimize when resetting the benchmark. Splitting up those four points means that one of the two has to have at least 24. Since those would be the last of NU's undetermined games, and points, let's give that distinction to NU with a 3-1 balance. That means the new target to stay under for keeping 4th mathematically alive for those below it is 24. That's now easy enough to stay within by having UML sweep UVM, putting them at 24, and having UVM sweep BU, leaving both at 23.

Realize that this is not a prediction. Merely a model to see what's mathematically possible. If a team loses tbs to NU and UML, that doesn't mean they are out of the running. BU could split with NU and put BU at 24 and NU at 23. Likewise, UVM could steal a point at Tsongas and be the one at 24 with UML at 23. Any of the teams that you place at 23 in any scenario could take another point from somewhere else on their schedule making it a three or four way tie at 24. For that matter, UMA could hit 24 and MC could hit 24, adding to the dog pile. In fact, all six of those teams could still, mathematically, be tied at 24 at the same time - meaning that the final home ice team, the team missing the playoffs at ninth, and everyone in between would all be placing their seed in the hands of the tie-breaker math.

Also realize that this does not mean that PC is actually out, since the foursome of BU/NU/UML/UVM all hit at least 23 above and PC's max is 22. Those are scenarios (scenaria?) where we are trying to minimize the points held by the 4th seed to see how low it is possible to keep it. For PC to reach 6th, a different, almost diametrically-opposite, strategy is used. Instead of distributing the points as evenly as we can, we'd concentrate the points on fewer teams, leaving as many teams as possible for PC to catch - similar to piling all possible points on teams 1-3 in the above calculations, except also for teams in 4th and 5th as well. I've run the numbers and PC can still get 6th, using tbs.

All that these mathematical hypotheses mean is that, as of right now, if you can still reach 24, you are still alive for the final Home Ice spot and, therefore, Home Eligible.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

And your question is...?