LSSU Lakers 2020 off-season thread

[Bill]

Re: LSSU Lakers 2020 off-season thread

Bill, first, thanks so much for your kind words regarding my employment situation. Very much appreciated. As for your question about why physicians may not have previously pushed back on the CDC's flu deaths numbers, my guess is, prior to Covid where so many people tried to compare it to the flu, they never had a reason to really look closely at the numbers vs what they were seeing in their individual practices/experience.

Next, regarding the flu vs Covid comparison; my apologies as I apparently misread what you had said. Still, if you look at the total number of pneumonia deaths in the U.S. on the KFF website which specializes in various health statistics, you'll see that for 2018, the most recent year statistics are available, the total pneumonia deaths for that year were 47,956. Now, that's half as many deaths as is listed on the Statista website for just the time frame from Feb. 1 thru May 30. So, I'll need to do some more research on why there's such a difference between years/sites. The other challenge of your pneumonia vs Covid comparison is that pneumonia is a pretty common thing in older people and is caused by numerous other conditions. And, even the CDC says that people who are properly vaccinated for the flu and other diseases will decrease their chances for getting pneumonia. My point is, it's very much an apples to oranges comparison. We are already at 106,533 Covid deaths and, that's in just in a little over 90 days... I'm sorry but, there's a very good chance we will easily be over 200,000 at the 12 month mark for Covid. Thus, I don't think your comparison to pneumonia holds up very well either.

And, I agree with the fact that younger, healthy kids/adults are at a very low risk of suffering from significant symptoms if they contract Covid. Unfortunately, since 35-40% of all infected are asymptomatic, administrators biggest concern is having an athlete or coach infect others who may be immuno compromised. Also, I noticed no one has addressed or pushed back about my point regarding required quarantining of infected players and other deemed to have had close contact and that potential affect on a teams or teams' schedules. Power 5 football and basketball may have the money to consistently test players and staff but I'm pretty sure small Div. I hockey schools won't. When it comes to player health and safety, administrators are going to err on the conservative side of that ledger. Unfortunately, it's all about preventing preventable lawsuits.

OK, but it's the CDC that's putting Covid, Pneumonia and Flu deaths on the same chart, so it's the CDC that is doing the comparison and I'm just saying what they have out there. If the word "comparison" is what's causing an issue, maybe "context" would be a better word. Just as pneumonia deaths are much higher for older people, the same is true for Covid. From the CDC charts, over 92% of Covid deaths are for age 55 and above, and over 80% are for age 65 and above, and in many cases those dying have other health issues (regardless of age).

As you said 35-40% of people with Covid are asymptomatic (I've seen figures a little higher, in the 40s). Many people who get Covid have generally mild symptoms. Most people who get it recover from it. Yes it's very contagious, a lot of people are going to get it at some point, unfortunately a good number will still die from it. The number of Covid deaths has decreased significantly since mid-April (yes there possibly could be some spikes again). Precautionary measures have certainly helped. I'm in the camp that believes that keeping businesses, the economy, sports, churches, etc. shut down for too long might lead to far more damage than Covid itself. i.e. The cure could be worse than the disease. I don't think it's a good thing living in fear of Covid. I'm not, and I'm in a higher risk group age wise.

[Bill]

Re: LSSU Lakers 2020 off-season thread

With the uncertainty of the upcoming college season, several high end recruits from big name programs have decided to go the major junior route instead. I guess they figure Canada is more likely to let hockey life go on.

[net presence]

Re: LSSU Lakers 2020 off-season thread

With the uncertainty of the upcoming college season, several high end recruits from big name programs have decided to go the major junior route instead. I guess they figure Canada is more likely to let hockey life go on.

Bill, first I want to address your position on the "cure not being worse than the disease" position. The unfortunate thing is, we could have literally stayed as locked down as we were originally -- possibly even as long until we had a vaccine -- IF, emphasis on IF our government would have approached the economics of the situation the way many of the other western democracies did. By paying every adult between $2,000 and $3,000 per month until the crisis was over. AND, if either you or your spouse/partner lost full or even partial employment due to Covid, any student, car, or home loans that either/both of you had the payments would be suspended until we had a vaccine. With the delayed months being added on to the end of those terms. There are a number of respected economists who believe this would have been significantly cheaper for the federal government in the long term than what we have chosen to do.

I completely agree that the likelihood that many of the players would probably get very ill if they did catch it, is very minimal. Unfortunately for administrators, they usually tend to err on the side of extreme caution/worst case scenario. Obviously, the greatest risk is for the asymptomatic players to give it to an older coach or a parent or grandparent. Or, give it to a teammate and then that teammate gives it to a parent or grandparent. Yes, it looks like the Power 5 football/basketball schools are going to try and play but, they have the money to do the testing and tracing/quarantining properly. Although, if they think they can choose to do it for just football or, just football and men's and women's basketball, they're definitely going to be dealing with Title 9 lawsuits. Believe me, I'm a glass half-full person but, if the virus comes back in Oct./Nov. as strong as it was in March, there's no way we don't lock down again. At least unless we have a therapeutic or vaccine.

Next, regarding your major-junior info and that some of these recruits may be perceiving that Hockey Canada might be more inclined to start up before the NCAA. I'm involved in an administrative capacity with one of the Canadian Tier II leagues and so I'm receiving info directly from Hockey Canada's leadership. I can tell you that they are dead set on not starting until the Canadian Institute of Health gives the OK. Another issue for many of the major-junior teams that may actually cause a few to actually fold is the decision by the Canadian courts recently that ruled against those leagues/teams regarding having underpaid players for a number of years. This resulted in a 30 million dollar total hit to the leagues/teams which amounts to what I believe is about $250,000 per team. The chatter is that, this could jeopardize the financial viability of a number of teams, especially those located in smaller communities with larger travel budgets (huh, where have we heard this before?)

[sm2pk]

Re: LSSU Lakers 2020 off-season thread

It is not rocket science . No vaccine,no sports .

[lakersparty]

It is not rocket science . No vaccine,no sports .

There is no vaccine, and the NBA will resume play on July 31. There will be sports without a vaccine.

[Sol Diablo]

There is no vaccine, and the NBA will resume play on July 31. There will be sports without a vaccine.

Yes, follow the money....

[Bill]

Re: LSSU Lakers 2020 off-season thread

Bill, first I want to address your position on the "cure not being worse than the disease" position. The unfortunate thing is, we could have literally stayed as locked down as we were originally -- possibly even as long until we had a vaccine -- IF, emphasis on IF our government would have approached the economics of the situation the way many of the other western democracies did. By paying every adult between $2,000 and $3,000 per month until the crisis was over. AND, if either you or your spouse/partner lost full or even partial employment due to Covid, any student, car, or home loans that either/both of you had the payments would be suspended until we had a vaccine. With the delayed months being added on to the end of those terms. There are a number of respected economists who believe this would have been significantly cheaper for the federal government in the long term than what we have chosen to do.

I completely agree that the likelihood that many of the players would probably get very ill if they did catch it, is very minimal. Unfortunately for administrators, they usually tend to err on the side of extreme caution/worst case scenario. Obviously, the greatest risk is for the asymptomatic players to give it to an older coach or a parent or grandparent. Or, give it to a teammate and then that teammate gives it to a parent or grandparent. Yes, it looks like the Power 5 football/basketball schools are going to try and play but, they have the money to do the testing and tracing/quarantining properly. Although, if they think they can choose to do it for just football or, just football and men's and women's basketball, they're definitely going to be dealing with Title 9 lawsuits. Believe me, I'm a glass half-full person but, if the virus comes back in Oct./Nov. as strong as it was in March, there's no way we don't lock down again. At least unless we have a therapeutic or vaccine.

Next, regarding your major-junior info and that some of these recruits may be perceiving that Hockey Canada might be more inclined to start up before the NCAA. I'm involved in an administrative capacity with one of the Canadian Tier II leagues and so I'm receiving info directly from Hockey Canada's leadership. I can tell you that they are dead set on not starting until the Canadian Institute of Health gives the OK. Another issue for many of the major-junior teams that may actually cause a few to actually fold is the decision by the Canadian courts recently that ruled against those leagues/teams regarding having underpaid players for a number of years. This resulted in a 30 million dollar total hit to the leagues/teams which amounts to what I believe is about $250,000 per team. The chatter is that, this could jeopardize the financial viability of a number of teams, especially those located in smaller communities with larger travel budgets (huh, where have we heard this before?)

Who are these economists? Is Paul Krugman one of them? There are over 200 million adults in the country so paying out 400-600 billion dollars a month could run into a lot of added debt for the country very fast. Did these economists venture an estimate of how many months these payments would have been needed? What about money for small businesses? Just giving money straight to all adults doesn't solve severe economic problems if businesses (especially small ones) are shut down.

As far as high end recruits jumping the D1 ship goes, these kids may think that with hockey being the national sport of Canada, it's more likely that major junior will start up this Fall than D1 hockey. Maybe the major junior teams are selling that idea to them. I agree that doesn't necessarily mean it will be true. Time will tell.

[sm2pk]

Re: LSSU Lakers 2020 off-season thread

A player or 2 with the virus is all it will take to shut it all back down again . What? you think the virus is not running the show . The virus will do what it wants until they have a vaccine .

[lakersparty]

A player or 2 with the virus is all it will take to shut it all back down again . What? you think the virus is not running the show . The virus will do what it wants until they have a vaccine .

Alabama football has had 5 players who have tested positive, but the SEC is still starting workouts tomorrow. Things are moving forward with no vaccine.

[Sol Diablo]

Alabama football has had 5 players who have tested positive, but the SEC is still starting workouts tomorrow. Things are moving forward with no vaccine.

PAC12 workouts have started, varies by state tho. Plan now is football as planned, but anything can happen, or change.

[LSSULaker889294]

It will definitely take a little time getting used to the new forums. It was exactly the same when I first joined in March 2007 until this morning.

[lakersparty]

It will definitely take a little time getting used to the new forums. It was exactly the same when I first joined in March 2007 until this morning.

Wow, this is a big change. I like it, though. Go Lakers!

[LSSULaker889294]

There should be an off-season Laker Hockey Talk show this Thursday morning at 8:30 as this is the third Thursday of the month coming up.

[Bill]

There should be an off-season Laker Hockey Talk show this Thursday morning at 8:30 as this is the third Thursday of the month coming up.

I'll have to wait for the podcast. I have something else going on Thursday morning. Wonder if the schedule has been filled out yet.

[LSSULaker889294]

I'll have to wait for the podcast. I have something else going on Thursday morning. Wonder if the schedule has been filled out yet.

The Lakers haven't released the schedule yet so I doubt it. I'm sure all this Covid-19 related crap is slowing things down.