BU 2021-22: Albie's Great Adventure

[J.D.]

Ya I was just asking if it was possible his contract isn't actually up. Like maybe he had another 1-2 years on it. If his contract is truly up this summer, a one year deal is basically unheard of in sports.

[J.D.]

Since you mentioned UConn, I actually think they deserve credit for sticking with Cav and not being impatient. He's built them up from nothing into a respectable program and they broke through to the Garden.

[Friend_of_BU_Hockey]

Here's another way to look at the overall body of work in the Albie era:

123 games | 58-49-16 overall record | .472 winning %

Take the 14-1-1 stretch from this season and the 9-1-0 stretch from last season out of the mix, and...

97 games | 35-47-15 | .361 winning %

Those 97 games represents 79% of the total games BU has played with Albie as head coach. This larger body of work is more reflective of what the BU program has regressed into than the 14-1-1 run from December 2021 thru February 2022.

[brassbonanza]

I think UNH is a better parallel than UConn. We're not at the point of UNH and Maine yet, and have baked in advantages (better facilities, program $, overall program success, etc.) but if they do retain Albie and continue down this road we risk falling into perennial mediocrity.

[defkit]

I'm not surprised that Pando may not want the top job. I mentioned a few days ago that he certainly wouldn't increase the intensity factor, unless he has a completely different persona that the public never sees. But even if that is the case, that isn't a reason to not replace Albie. I'm sure there are many coaches that would be interested in the job. Especially now that you aren't following a long string of success post Parker/Quinn.

Speaking of Quinn... :-)

[The Sicatoka]

Here's another way to look at the overall body of work in the Albie era:

123 games | 58-49-16 overall record | .472 winning %

Point of order.
Ties are normally calculated as "half a win" in winning percentage.

123 games, 58 wins, 16 half-wins, for 66 "wins", .5366 win %

[Sean Pickett]

Since you mentioned UConn, I actually think they deserve credit for sticking with Cav and not being impatient. He's built them up from nothing into a respectable program and they broke through to the Garden.

Ah, yes, UConn made it the Garden on just his eighth season. No I'm sorry, but his cumulative record at UConn is 122-150-33, 0.454 and that includes his 18-14-0 first season in the AHA. This season is just his second overall winning season, currently 4 games over 0.500. I wouldn't even give him credit for building UConn up as his last 2 and 1/2 seasons Bruce Marshall had the program back on the upswing, which was continued under David Berard for the last 1/2 season. UConn was 50-51-12 0.496 over those 3 seasons and 19-14-4, the last season before Cavanaugh took over and went 18-14-4. Yes, Hockey East is (was?) a tougher league than Atlantic Hockey, but I see nothing that indicates Coach Cavanaugh built UConn up from nothing.

Again, it's very hard to predict with 100% accuracy how a coach will do in the future based on past results, but after researching 426 coaching records at every current or former DI program (including when current DI programs were DII/DIII) since WWII I can say that after 4 seasons it's usually apparent how good a coach is and after 8 seasons you absolutely know how good a coach is. Coach Cavanaugh may well improve and even win a title or two if he stays anther decade, but I think his tenure at UConn likely ends up no better than Fern Flaman's at NIU (for the record Coach Flaman had a 255-301-23 record and won 1 ECAC title, 1 Hockey East title, 1 Frozen Four and had just one other league semifinal appearance).

Sean

[ColinWilsonFan]

Since you mentioned UConn, I actually think they deserve credit for sticking with Cav and not being impatient. He's built them up from nothing into a respectable program and they broke through to the Garden.

don’t underestimate joe p’s contribution great recruiter and greet voice in the locker room

[Sean Pickett]

I think UNH is a better parallel than UConn. We're not at the point of UNH and Maine yet, and have baked in advantages (better facilities, program $, overall program success, etc.) but if they do retain Albie and continue down this road we risk falling into perennial mediocrity.

I don't think UNH is a good parallel at all. UNH started their decline under a formerly excellent coach, Dick Umile, as he finished his career with 3 pretty bad losing seasons and a 0.500 season immediately preceding (and BU fans complained about Coach Parker's final 4 seasons!). So when Coach Souza (BTW, I used to work with his aunt back when he was playing at UNH) took over UNH was already in trouble and he hasn't been able to stabilize the program, although he may have slowed the decline..

Maine is actually the closet parallel to BU, although the circumstances around the coaching change were completely different as Maine fired Coach Whitehead after one poor season. Still Coach Gendron took over and was unable to maintain Maine as even a 0.500 program after his first season.

Sean

[ericredaxe]

So if true that they are bringing Albie back in again, that kind of goes with what my gut feeling was on what BU might be thinking. I do like the coaching staff moves he made last year and they have improved a little bit each year (albeit baby steps) - add to that a weird COVID year where BU was probably the most restrictive school of those who actually played...plus likely some hesitancy of having just gotten burned by Quinn jumping to the NHL and not wanting to go through that again in 3 or 4 years, I can see why they would stick with him for another year.

I'm surprised that you guys would give up your season tickets over one more year. The team was exciting to watch for a good stretch this year and the games are still fun. (If you are giving up season tickets because its a pain in the *** to get into the city with traffic and the concession food sucks etc I can 100% understand that)

If you do give them up, what would it take to bring you back? Lets say Albie does indeed stay and they have a season that more of less mirrors this years record, but they don't lose the Sacred Heart and Maine games and finish 12th in the PWR would that do it? That plus make the Garden or win an NCAA game? Win Hockey East?

Lets keep the faith and see what happens.

Now - roster - what will next year look like?

Schedule - other than they mentioned Notre Dame, who do we know of for OOC games? Does the unbalanced Hockey East schedule stay the same every year? Or do the teams we play 3x vs 2x rotate each year?

Edit: One other question - are all coaches (hockey and other sports) under specified contract lengths? Or are some just simply hired by a university the same as any other employee and could decide to leave / be terminated etc at any time?

[Sean Pickett]

Here's another way to look at the overall body of work in the Albie era:

123 games | 58-49-16 overall record | .472 winning %

Take the 14-1-1 stretch from this season and the 9-1-0 stretch from last season out of the mix, and...

97 games | 35-47-15 | .361 winning %

Those 97 games represents 79% of the total games BU has played with Albie as head coach. This larger body of work is more reflective of what the BU program has regressed into than the 14-1-1 run from December 2021 thru February 2022.

As mentioned that is not winning percentage and never has been. I know you have brought it up before and I agree it is something worth looking at, but maybe call it Win Percentage to differentiate it from the standard winning percentage. As you point out it can quickly show that Coach O'Connell hasn't even won half of the games he's coached. Interestingly, current and more recent coaches are more impacted by it then older ones, as ties were far less prevalent in the past. Coach O'Connell comes tied for the 19th largest drop (out of 426 coaches) in percentage between standard% and Win%:

Career		GC	W	L	T	Pct.	W%	Dif
Brent Brekke	SLU	90	21	54	15	0.317	0.233	-0.083
Dennis Williams	BG	36	5	25	6	0.222	0.139	-0.083
Clancy Seymour	CAN	20	9	8	3	0.525	0.450	-0.075
Bob Mancini	FSU	80	36	32	12	0.525	0.450	-0.075
David Berard	HC	234	84	116	34	0.432	0.359	-0.073
Mark Osiecki	OSU	112	46	50	16	0.482	0.411	-0.071
Matt Curley	UAA	70	7	53	10	0.171	0.100	-0.071
John Hill	UAA	149	39	89	21	0.332	0.262	-0.070
Brian Riley	USMA	621	218	317	86	0.420	0.351	-0.069
Roger Grillo	BRN	377	120	205	52	0.387	0.318	-0.069
Steve Cedorchuk	BC	74	24	40	10	0.392	0.324	-0.068
Frank Anzalone (II)	LSSU	149	32	97	20	0.282	0.215	-0.067
Mike Souza	UNH	127	47	63	17	0.437	0.370	-0.067
Tim Army	PC	210	66	116	28	0.381	0.314	-0.067
Jim Roque	LSSU	347	136	165	46	0.458	0.392	-0.066
Kevin Sneddon	UVM	636	251	301	84	0.461	0.395	-0.066
Greg Cronin	NU	220	87	104	29	0.461	0.395	-0.066
Pat Ford	FIN	38	11	22	5	0.355	0.289	-0.066
Tavis MacMillan	UAF	115	46	54	15	0.465	0.400	-0.065
Albie O'Connell	BU	123	58	49	16	0.537	0.472	-0.065
Dave Smith	CAN	454	172	223	59	0.444	0.379	-0.065
Dave Poulin	ND	386	139	197	50	0.425	0.360	-0.065
Brendan Whittet	BRN	387	114	223	50	0.359	0.295	-0.065

He's also one of 46 coaches who's % drops below 0.500:

Career		GC	W	L	T	Pct.	W%	Dif
Casey Jones	CLA	402	200	151	51	0.561	0.498	-0.063
Mel Pearson	MTU	239	118	92	29	0.554	0.494	-0.061
Steve Rohlik	OSU	325	162	127	36	0.554	0.498	-0.055
Jim Madigan	NU	352	174	139	39	0.550	0.494	-0.055
Scott Sandelin	UMD	867	425	347	95	0.545	0.490	-0.055
Ronn Tomassoni	HU	281	140	115	26	0.544	0.498	-0.046
Mike Eaves	WI	558	267	225	66	0.538	0.478	-0.059
Joe Marsh	SLU	939	468	399	72	0.537	0.498	-0.038
Albie O'Connell	BU	123	58	49	16	0.537	0.472	-0.065
Ted Donato	HU	567	272	231	64	0.536	0.480	-0.056
Mark Mazzoleni	HU	167	82	72	13	0.530	0.491	-0.039
Guy Gadowsky	PSU	348	172	152	24	0.529	0.494	-0.034
Clancy Seymour	CAN	20	9	8	3	0.525	0.450	-0.075
Bob Mancini	FSU	80	36	32	12	0.525	0.450	-0.075
Brian Cavanaugh	CAN	704	341	306	57	0.525	0.484	-0.040
Chris Bergeron	BG	369	171	154	44	0.523	0.463	-0.060
Frank Serratore	AFA	924	435	393	96	0.523	0.471	-0.052
Dean Blais	UNO	309	146	133	30	0.521	0.472	-0.049
Barry Thorndycraft	UND	144	71	65	8	0.521	0.493	-0.028
Craig Dahl	SCSU	699	338	309	52	0.521	0.484	-0.037
Nate Leaman	UC	300	138	127	35	0.518	0.460	-0.058
Tom Serratore	BSU	772	354	326	92	0.518	0.459	-0.060
Dan Fridgen	RPI	442	210	194	38	0.518	0.475	-0.043
Andy Murray	WMU	364	167	154	43	0.518	0.459	-0.059
Mike Sertich	UMD	722	350	328	44	0.515	0.485	-0.030
James Fullerton	BRN	353	176	168	9	0.511	0.499	-0.013
Murray Murdoch	YU	416	206	197	13	0.511	0.495	-0.016
Ralph Backstrom	DU	370	182	174	14	0.511	0.492	-0.019
John Markell	OSU	603	280	267	56	0.511	0.464	-0.046
Greg Carvel	SLU	186	86	82	18	0.511	0.462	-0.048
Bill Wilkinson	WMU	667	313	301	53	0.509	0.469	-0.040
Edward Jeremiah	DC	461	230	223	8	0.508	0.499	-0.009
Jim Reynolds	MC	66	32	31	3	0.508	0.485	-0.023
John Matchefts	AFA	310	154	150	6	0.506	0.497	-0.010
Brian McCutcheon	COR	234	108	105	21	0.506	0.462	-0.045
Ron Anderson	MC	528	255	249	24	0.506	0.483	-0.023
Mark Mazzoleni	MIA	188	85	83	20	0.505	0.452	-0.053
Harry Neale	OSU	100	49	48	3	0.505	0.490	-0.015
Guy Gadowsky	UAF	174	81	80	13	0.503	0.466	-0.037
Walt Kyle	NMU	596	265	263	68	0.502	0.445	-0.057
Paul Pearl	HC	659	296	294	69	0.502	0.449	-0.052
Derek Schooley	RMU	618	275	275	68	0.500	0.445	-0.055
John Ronan	UC	17	8	8	1	0.500	0.471	-0.029
John Glynne	SHU	38	18	18	2	0.500	0.474	-0.026
Horace Martin	UNH	155	76	76	3	0.500	0.490	-0.010
Donald Whiston	BRN	55	27	27	1	0.500	0.491	-0.009

Sean

[Sean Pickett]

I'm surprised that you guys would give up your season tickets over one more year. The team was exciting to watch for a good stretch this year and the games are still fun. (If you are giving up season tickets because its a pain in the *** to get into the city with traffic and the concession food sucks etc I can 100% understand that)

It's already been three "one more years." Furthermore I wrote to Drew last season after the abominable performance by the team in their first game and let him know I could no longer support Coach O'Connell, so for me it has already been "one more year." Also, I believe that BU has the opportunity to hire the best young head coach in DI today this year and I don't think that will be true in another year.

Nor do I think the team was fun to watch for a good stretch.

If you do give them up, what would it take to bring you back? Lets say Albie does indeed stay and they have a season that more of less mirrors this years record, but they don't lose the Sacred Heart and Maine games and finish 12th in the PWR would that do it? That plus make the Garden or win an NCAA game? Win Hockey East?

Yes, but they still played poorly far too often, including both losses to UConn, the losses to UML, the loss to Vermont, etc. For me it will take the team playing well for 60 or more minutes every single game no matter the score. And yes, just making the Garden should never be good enough, Coach Kelley made the Garden in 8 out of 10 seasons; Coach Parker made the Garden* in 28 out of 40 seasons. 21 out of 29 in Hockey East; even Coach Quinn made it 3 out of 5 seasons; Coach O'Connell 1 out of 3 (only saved by the 2020 postseason being canceled from being 1 out of 4). And you have make the NCAA tournament before you can actually win a NCAA game.

Lets keep the faith and see what happens.

I kept the faith this season and I saw what happened; the same thing that happened the previous three seasons: a pathetic end to the season. Faith will no longer play a part in my supporting BU. They will get no more money from me until I see actual change.

Sean

*not all semifinal/final games were actually played at the Garden.

[hydrant]

Has any player/team really improved with Albie? His whole 2018-2019 freshman class was a bust. 2019-2020 class of 13, it seems only Vlasic, Fensore, and Skoog have really improved. In 20-21, our whole offense seemed to be based around Farrance. Albie cannot develop any player. Maybe it's because during the season he only has 30-45 minute practices to "keep legs fresh". This guy is a joke. Also, can BU just rescind a players scholarship? I would much rather bring in more freshman than keep players that bring no value.

[ericredaxe]

Also, I believe that BU has the opportunity to hire the best young head coach in DI today this year and I don't think that will be true in another year.

Nor do I think the team was fund to watch for a good stretch.

Maybe I missed this in earlier discussion - who do you believe is the best young coach they could hire?

I also agree that there was a stretch in the first part of the season that the team was not all that fun to watch.

[brassbonanza]

Maybe I missed this in earlier discussion - who do you believe is the best young coach they could hire?

I also agree that there was a stretch in the first part of the season that the team was not all that fun to watch.

I believe he means Eric Lang at AIC.

Calling a 2.5-month, 18-game period (through BC home game) a "stretch" is.... a stretch. It was more than half the season and the team was brutal to watch. That's what did us in.