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ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

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  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    Originally posted by ColSkate65 View Post
    lugnut, I'm not a math wizard so don't have the foggiest about your "diagrams." But I believe this is the 3rd year out of the last 4 that I've come in last. At least I'm consistent :-( Thanks for doing the contest again!
    It's not that bad! Last year, you finished 39th of 46 (but I took last), 17-18 you tied for 20th of 49 (but I took second from last of real people), 16-17 you took 53rd of 58 (second last for me!), but 15-16 you did chunk it, taking 63rd of 63.

    Leave a comment:


  • apple2k
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    Congrats to Puckman (and to RPI Hockey), and thanks, Lugnut!

    Leave a comment:


  • ColSkate65
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    lugnut, I'm not a math wizard so don't have the foggiest about your "diagrams." But I believe this is the 3rd year out of the last 4 that I've come in last. At least I'm consistent :-( Thanks for doing the contest again!

    Leave a comment:


  • drshoen
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    Lugnut, thanks for running the contest again this year!

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    Let's go a little more in-depth. Obviously congrats again to Go Puckman, who didn't miss any team by more than two spots and nailed 5 teams. This is going to get repetitive, but we all did extremely well this year. Our worst poster (ColSkate65) this year would have beaten half of the field last year, which was already a pretty good year. Last year's winner didn't compete for reasons, but last year's loser (me), improved significantly for no discernable reason (*cough* it's because RPI didn't cost me 100 points *cough*).

    Given that all of our scores were very good and the Fan Average finished so close to the top, it should come as no surprise we came pretty close on pretty much every team. More than half of us pegged Cornell and SLU for first and last, respectively, with the former costing us less than a point on average. Further, there were seven more teams that cost us less than 4 points on average. The only real shocker of the bunch was RPI, who no one picked correctly and cost us about 19 points on average. You could interpret all of this as the league being very predictable, but I choose to read it as us all being very smart.

    Some graphs:

    (left: Violin plot of scores, right: Heat map of our deviations from reality)

    (This year compared to previous editions of the contest)

    Leave a comment:


  • Ralph Baer
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    Originally posted by NPC19850330 View Post
    Did you mean for this to be in the recruits thread?
    Sorry, I moved it.

    Leave a comment:


  • NPC19850330
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    Originally posted by Ralph Baer
    I will post the other summaries in the morning. Gagnon is playing. Don't know yet about Watson and we will probably never know about Babich.
    Did you mean for this to be in the recruits thread?

    Leave a comment:


  • Ralph Baer
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    Originally posted by Go Puckman View Post
    Third time is a charm Sorry Ralph, but at least you lost to a die hard RPI fan.
    Congrats

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  • Go Puckman
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    Third time is a charm Sorry Ralph, but at least you lost to a die hard RPI fan.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    The final results are in and this year's winner is........ Go Puckman! He just edged out Ralph and the Fan Average to take the #1 spot with the best final score in the history of this contest. In fact, the top five contestants this year would match or beat the previous best winning score (jmhusker, 24, 2015-16). As expected, the Random Number generator put up the worst score by a huge margin, though still only a middle-of-the-road worst score historically. Our worst human poster ColSkate65 had far and away the best worst score ever, and even finished better than two of our past winners.

    Code:
    Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
     1    12         Go Puckman   16
     2     6         Ralph Baer   18
          51    The Fan Average   18
     4    13          Patronick   20
          37              sgt12   20
     6     8       techtodenver   26
           9  iowabasedtraveler   26
          14               Turk   26
          34            Rainman   26
    10    19         GoldenBear   28
    11     7            drshoen   32
    12    43  DrDemento+JennyRN   34
    13    23            fr. joe   36
          31           slumulva   36
          38            apple2k   36
    16    27          GreenBear   38
          30           lugnut92   38
          35            bothman   38
          47       SnowDogFlyer   38
    20    25   TalonsUpPuckDown   42
    21    33        Mike Hutter   44
          48        NPC19850330   44
    23     4           sezenack   46
          15      ecachawkeyfan   46
    25     2          The Media   48
    26     2        The Coaches   50
          26           Saints#1   50
          44              johnk   50
    29     5       allnightwong   54
    30     3          CLKHockey   56  
          32 still an empty net   56
    32    18             cudmud   58
    33    11            kdiff77   60
    34    41           sshablak   64
    35    42          BIG Green   66
    36    17      goldenbriggsy   70
    37    24  Bronco Hockey Fan   70
    38    16           Dutchman   74
    39     2      Dr. Last Year   76
          22           TchrBill   76
    41    39          red133883   78
    42    40            Rjm7272   88
    43    20   Earl_Leatherland   96
    44    50               TBRW   98
    45    29         ColSkate65  116
    46     2  The Random Number  282
    --    50                 --   62
    I'll post all of the more in-depth analysis graphs later, but I wanted to get the final results out.

    Leave a comment:


  • ColSkate65
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    lugnet, did the fan avg win the contest? Folks want to know.

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  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    I mentioned that last week was weird because there was no change in the standings, but I have to say that this is even weirder, because The Fan Average has nudged past sgt12 to take over the top spot with just one weekend left to play. Finally, the wisdom of the masses has asserted itself and we're set to have a 2006 Time Person of the Year-type event where every single one of us can claim victory. What a time to be alive.

    Code:
    Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
     1    51    The Fan Average   12
     2    12         Go Puckman   14
          13          Patronick   14
          37              sgt12   14
     5     6         Ralph Baer   16
     6     8       techtodenver   18
           9  iowabasedtraveler   18
     8    14               Turk   20
          34            Rainman   20
    10    19         GoldenBear   26
          43  DrDemento+JennyRN   26
    12     7            drshoen   28
          35            bothman   28
          38            apple2k   28
    15    25   TalonsUpPuckDown   32
          27          GreenBear   32
    17    15      ecachawkeyfan   34
          23            fr. joe   34
          31           slumulva   34
          47       SnowDogFlyer   34
    21     2          The Media   36
          48        NPC19850330   36
    23    33        Mike Hutter   38
    24     2        The Coaches   40
    25     4           sezenack   42
          26           Saints#1   42
          44              johnk   42
    28     5       allnightwong   44
    29     3          CLKHockey   46
          30           lugnut92   46
          32 still an empty net   46
    32    11            kdiff77   50
          18             cudmud   50
          41           sshablak   50
    35    42          BIG Green   54
    36    17      goldenbriggsy   56
    37    24  Bronco Hockey Fan   60
          39          red133883   60
    39     2      Dr. Last Year   62
          22           TchrBill   62
    41    16           Dutchman   70
    42    50               TBRW   78
    43    40            Rjm7272   82
    44    20   Earl_Leatherland   86
    45    29         ColSkate65   96
    46     2  The Random Number  274
    --    50                 --   48

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    Well uhh, this is weird. Despite 12 games being played, the standings did not move at all. As such, nothing changed in our little contest. sgt12 remains atop the standings, the RNG remains at the bottom, and we can just forget this weekend even happened.
    Code:
    Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
     1    37              sgt12   10
     2    38            apple2k   28
     3     9  iowabasedtraveler   30
          34            Rainman   30
          51    The Fan Average   30
     6    12         Go Puckman   32
          13          Patronick   32
     8     6         Ralph Baer   34
     9     8       techtodenver   36
          14               Turk   36
    11    35            bothman   40
    12    19         GoldenBear   48
          31           slumulva   48
          32 still an empty net   48
          43  DrDemento+JennyRN   48
    16     2          The Media   50
          18             cudmud   50
          25   TalonsUpPuckDown   50
    19     7            drshoen   52
          27          GreenBear   52
    21    39          red133883   54
          47       SnowDogFlyer   54
    23     5       allnightwong   56
          15      ecachawkeyfan   56
    25    41           sshablak   58
          48        NPC19850330   58
    27    26           Saints#1   60
          33        Mike Hutter   60
    29     2        The Coaches   62
          23            fr. joe   62
          44              johnk   62
    32     4           sezenack   64
    33    30           lugnut92   68
    34     3          CLKHockey   72
          11            kdiff77   72
    36    17      goldenbriggsy   76
          42          BIG Green   76
    38    24  Bronco Hockey Fan   78
    39     2      Dr. Last Year   80
          16           Dutchman   80
    41    22           TchrBill   88
          50               TBRW   88
    43    40            Rjm7272   94
    44    29         ColSkate65  108
    45    20   Earl_Leatherland  110
    46     2  The Random Number  264
    --    50                 --   62

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    We're so good at this. sgt12 maintains their lead with a historically low score and the Fan Average sits not too far behind!

    Code:
    Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
     1    37              sgt12   10
     2    38            apple2k   28
     3     9  iowabasedtraveler   30
          34            Rainman   30
          51    The Fan Average   30
     6    12         Go Puckman   32
          13          Patronick   32
     8     6         Ralph Baer   34
     9     8       techtodenver   36
          14               Turk   36
    11    35            bothman   40
    12    19         GoldenBear   48
          31           slumulva   48
          32 still an empty net   48
          43  DrDemento+JennyRN   48
    16     2          The Media   50
          18             cudmud   50
          25   TalonsUpPuckDown   50
    19     7            drshoen   52
          27          GreenBear   52
    21    39          red133883   54
          47       SnowDogFlyer   54
    23     5       allnightwong   56
          15      ecachawkeyfan   56
    25    41           sshablak   58
          48        NPC19850330   58
    27    26           Saints#1   60
          33        Mike Hutter   60
    29     2        The Coaches   62
          23            fr. joe   62
          44              johnk   62
    32     4           sezenack   64
    33    30           lugnut92   68
    34     3          CLKHockey   72
          11            kdiff77   72
    36    17      goldenbriggsy   76
          42          BIG Green   76
    38    24  Bronco Hockey Fan   78
    39     2      Dr. Last Year   80
          16           Dutchman   80
    41    22           TchrBill   88
          50               TBRW   88
    43    40            Rjm7272   94
    44    29         ColSkate65  108
    45    20   Earl_Leatherland  110
    46     2  The Random Number  264
    --    50                 --   62

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

    After a few weeks of lurking, sgt12 has once again reclaimed the top spot as we enter February. Also the seven-way tie fell apart, but we do have a five-way for 13th.

    Code:
    Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
     1    37              sgt12   14
     2     9  iowabasedtraveler   28
     3    34            Rainman   30
     4    38            apple2k   38
     5    12         Go Puckman   40
          51    The Fan Average   40
     7     8       techtodenver   42
          13          Patronick   42
     9    41           sshablak   44
    10    32 still an empty net   48
    11     5       allnightwong   50
          14               Turk   50
    13     2          The Media   52
           6         Ralph Baer   52
          18             cudmud   52
          39          red133883   52
          43  DrDemento+JennyRN   52
    18    31           slumulva   54
    19    25   TalonsUpPuckDown   56
          35            bothman   56
    21    19         GoldenBear   58
    22    26           Saints#1   60
    23    27          GreenBear   62
    24     7            drshoen   64
    25    44              johnk   68
          47       SnowDogFlyer   68
    27    15      ecachawkeyfan   70
    28     2        The Coaches   72
          48        NPC19850330   72
    30    33        Mike Hutter   76
    31     2      Dr. Last Year   78
          23            fr. joe   78
    33     4           sezenack   82
          50               TBRW   82
    35     3          CLKHockey   84
          11            kdiff77   84
    37    17      goldenbriggsy   86
    38    16           Dutchman   88
          22           TchrBill   88
    40    24  Bronco Hockey Fan   90
    41    40            Rjm7272   92
          42          BIG Green   92
    43    29         ColSkate65   94
    44    30           lugnut92   98
    45    20   Earl_Leatherland  108
    46     2  The Random Number  278
    --    50                 --   62

    Leave a comment:

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