ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

[sshablak]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

[Kepler]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

The "predictability" of the conference really amounts to the fact that there are only 2 teams between .333 and .607.

Last season there were 7.

The league has bifurcated. Perhaps it will melt back together during the second half.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

After a few weeks of lurking, sgt12 has once again reclaimed the top spot as we enter February. Also the seven-way tie fell apart, but we do have a five-way for 13th.

Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    37              sgt12   14
 2     9  iowabasedtraveler   28
 3    34            Rainman   30
 4    38            apple2k   38
 5    12         Go Puckman   40
      51    The Fan Average   40
 7     8       techtodenver   42
      13          Patronick   42
 9    41           sshablak   44
10    32 still an empty net   48
11     5       allnightwong   50
      14               Turk   50
13     2          The Media   52
       6         Ralph Baer   52
      18             cudmud   52
      39          red133883   52
      43  DrDemento+JennyRN   52
18    31           slumulva   54
19    25   TalonsUpPuckDown   56
      35            bothman   56
21    19         GoldenBear   58
22    26           Saints#1   60
23    27          GreenBear   62
24     7            drshoen   64
25    44              johnk   68
      47       SnowDogFlyer   68
27    15      ecachawkeyfan   70
28     2        The Coaches   72
      48        NPC19850330   72
30    33        Mike Hutter   76
31     2      Dr. Last Year   78
      23            fr. joe   78
33     4           sezenack   82
      50               TBRW   82
35     3          CLKHockey   84
      11            kdiff77   84
37    17      goldenbriggsy   86
38    16           Dutchman   88
      22           TchrBill   88
40    24  Bronco Hockey Fan   90
41    40            Rjm7272   92
      42          BIG Green   92
43    29         ColSkate65   94
44    30           lugnut92   98
45    20   Earl_Leatherland  108
46     2  The Random Number  278
--    50                 --   62

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

We're so good at this. sgt12 maintains their lead with a historically low score and the Fan Average sits not too far behind!

Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    37              sgt12   10
 2    38            apple2k   28
 3     9  iowabasedtraveler   30
      34            Rainman   30
      51    The Fan Average   30
 6    12         Go Puckman   32
      13          Patronick   32
 8     6         Ralph Baer   34
 9     8       techtodenver   36
      14               Turk   36
11    35            bothman   40
12    19         GoldenBear   48
      31           slumulva   48
      32 still an empty net   48
      43  DrDemento+JennyRN   48
16     2          The Media   50
      18             cudmud   50
      25   TalonsUpPuckDown   50
19     7            drshoen   52
      27          GreenBear   52
21    39          red133883   54
      47       SnowDogFlyer   54
23     5       allnightwong   56
      15      ecachawkeyfan   56
25    41           sshablak   58
      48        NPC19850330   58
27    26           Saints#1   60
      33        Mike Hutter   60
29     2        The Coaches   62
      23            fr. joe   62
      44              johnk   62
32     4           sezenack   64
33    30           lugnut92   68
34     3          CLKHockey   72
      11            kdiff77   72
36    17      goldenbriggsy   76
      42          BIG Green   76
38    24  Bronco Hockey Fan   78
39     2      Dr. Last Year   80
      16           Dutchman   80
41    22           TchrBill   88
      50               TBRW   88
43    40            Rjm7272   94
44    29         ColSkate65  108
45    20   Earl_Leatherland  110
46     2  The Random Number  264
--    50                 --   62

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

Well uhh, this is weird. Despite 12 games being played, the standings did not move at all. As such, nothing changed in our little contest. sgt12 remains atop the standings, the RNG remains at the bottom, and we can just forget this weekend even happened.

Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    37              sgt12   10
 2    38            apple2k   28
 3     9  iowabasedtraveler   30
      34            Rainman   30
      51    The Fan Average   30
 6    12         Go Puckman   32
      13          Patronick   32
 8     6         Ralph Baer   34
 9     8       techtodenver   36
      14               Turk   36
11    35            bothman   40
12    19         GoldenBear   48
      31           slumulva   48
      32 still an empty net   48
      43  DrDemento+JennyRN   48
16     2          The Media   50
      18             cudmud   50
      25   TalonsUpPuckDown   50
19     7            drshoen   52
      27          GreenBear   52
21    39          red133883   54
      47       SnowDogFlyer   54
23     5       allnightwong   56
      15      ecachawkeyfan   56
25    41           sshablak   58
      48        NPC19850330   58
27    26           Saints#1   60
      33        Mike Hutter   60
29     2        The Coaches   62
      23            fr. joe   62
      44              johnk   62
32     4           sezenack   64
33    30           lugnut92   68
34     3          CLKHockey   72
      11            kdiff77   72
36    17      goldenbriggsy   76
      42          BIG Green   76
38    24  Bronco Hockey Fan   78
39     2      Dr. Last Year   80
      16           Dutchman   80
41    22           TchrBill   88
      50               TBRW   88
43    40            Rjm7272   94
44    29         ColSkate65  108
45    20   Earl_Leatherland  110
46     2  The Random Number  264
--    50                 --   62

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

I mentioned that last week was weird because there was no change in the standings, but I have to say that this is even weirder, because The Fan Average has nudged past sgt12 to take over the top spot with just one weekend left to play. Finally, the wisdom of the masses has asserted itself and we're set to have a 2006 Time Person of the Year-type event where every single one of us can claim victory. What a time to be alive.

Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    51    The Fan Average   12
 2    12         Go Puckman   14
      13          Patronick   14
      37              sgt12   14
 5     6         Ralph Baer   16
 6     8       techtodenver   18
       9  iowabasedtraveler   18
 8    14               Turk   20
      34            Rainman   20
10    19         GoldenBear   26
      43  DrDemento+JennyRN   26
12     7            drshoen   28
      35            bothman   28
      38            apple2k   28
15    25   TalonsUpPuckDown   32
      27          GreenBear   32
17    15      ecachawkeyfan   34
      23            fr. joe   34
      31           slumulva   34
      47       SnowDogFlyer   34
21     2          The Media   36
      48        NPC19850330   36
23    33        Mike Hutter   38
24     2        The Coaches   40
25     4           sezenack   42
      26           Saints#1   42
      44              johnk   42
28     5       allnightwong   44
29     3          CLKHockey   46
      30           lugnut92   46
      32 still an empty net   46
32    11            kdiff77   50
      18             cudmud   50
      41           sshablak   50
35    42          BIG Green   54
36    17      goldenbriggsy   56
37    24  Bronco Hockey Fan   60
      39          red133883   60
39     2      Dr. Last Year   62
      22           TchrBill   62
41    16           Dutchman   70
42    50               TBRW   78
43    40            Rjm7272   82
44    20   Earl_Leatherland   86
45    29         ColSkate65   96
46     2  The Random Number  274
--    50                 --   48

[ColSkate65]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

lugnet, did the fan avg win the contest? Folks want to know.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

The final results are in and this year's winner is........ Go Puckman! He just edged out Ralph and the Fan Average to take the #1 spot with the best final score in the history of this contest. In fact, the top five contestants this year would match or beat the previous best winning score (jmhusker, 24, 2015-16). As expected, the Random Number generator put up the worst score by a huge margin, though still only a middle-of-the-road worst score historically. Our worst human poster ColSkate65 had far and away the best worst score ever, and even finished better than two of our past winners.

Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    12         Go Puckman   16
 2     6         Ralph Baer   18
      51    The Fan Average   18
 4    13          Patronick   20
      37              sgt12   20
 6     8       techtodenver   26
       9  iowabasedtraveler   26
      14               Turk   26
      34            Rainman   26
10    19         GoldenBear   28
11     7            drshoen   32
12    43  DrDemento+JennyRN   34
13    23            fr. joe   36
      31           slumulva   36
      38            apple2k   36
16    27          GreenBear   38
      30           lugnut92   38
      35            bothman   38
      47       SnowDogFlyer   38
20    25   TalonsUpPuckDown   42
21    33        Mike Hutter   44
      48        NPC19850330   44
23     4           sezenack   46
      15      ecachawkeyfan   46
25     2          The Media   48
26     2        The Coaches   50
      26           Saints#1   50
      44              johnk   50
29     5       allnightwong   54
30     3          CLKHockey   56  
      32 still an empty net   56
32    18             cudmud   58
33    11            kdiff77   60
34    41           sshablak   64
35    42          BIG Green   66
36    17      goldenbriggsy   70
37    24  Bronco Hockey Fan   70
38    16           Dutchman   74
39     2      Dr. Last Year   76
      22           TchrBill   76
41    39          red133883   78
42    40            Rjm7272   88
43    20   Earl_Leatherland   96
44    50               TBRW   98
45    29         ColSkate65  116
46     2  The Random Number  282
--    50                 --   62

I'll post all of the more in-depth analysis graphs later, but I wanted to get the final results out.

[Go Puckman]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

Third time is a charm Sorry Ralph, but at least you lost to a die hard RPI fan.

[Ralph Baer]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

Third time is a charm Sorry Ralph, but at least you lost to a die hard RPI fan.

Congrats

[NPC19850330]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

I will post the other summaries in the morning. Gagnon is playing. Don't know yet about Watson and we will probably never know about Babich.

Did you mean for this to be in the recruits thread?

[Ralph Baer]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

Did you mean for this to be in the recruits thread?

Sorry, I moved it.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

Let's go a little more in-depth. Obviously congrats again to Go Puckman, who didn't miss any team by more than two spots and nailed 5 teams. This is going to get repetitive, but we all did extremely well this year. Our worst poster (ColSkate65) this year would have beaten half of the field last year, which was already a pretty good year. Last year's winner didn't compete for reasons, but last year's loser (me), improved significantly for no discernable reason (*cough* it's because RPI didn't cost me 100 points *cough*).

Given that all of our scores were very good and the Fan Average finished so close to the top, it should come as no surprise we came pretty close on pretty much every team. More than half of us pegged Cornell and SLU for first and last, respectively, with the former costing us less than a point on average. Further, there were seven more teams that cost us less than 4 points on average. The only real shocker of the bunch was RPI, who no one picked correctly and cost us about 19 points on average. You could interpret all of this as the league being very predictable, but I choose to read it as us all being very smart.

Some graphs:

(left: Violin plot of scores, right: Heat map of our deviations from reality)

(This year compared to previous editions of the contest)

[drshoen]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

Lugnut, thanks for running the contest again this year!

[ColSkate65]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

lugnut, I'm not a math wizard so don't have the foggiest about your "diagrams." But I believe this is the 3rd year out of the last 4 that I've come in last. At least I'm consistent :-( Thanks for doing the contest again!