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UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

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  • Originally posted by leswp1 View Post
    My bet is no one is going to be traveling by air for awhile- the logistics are ridiculous to manage if something goes wrong.
    I haven't seen how badly airlines are taking things right now. And right now I'm eyeing things as a post infection world though that may be hopeful.

    One alternative... and this would be weird... would be a general agreement to reverse the schedules with more non conf play in february... I'm not suggesting alaska in february but more to cut down on travel in the nearer term

    I dont have a real answer just a spur the moment thought
    BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

    Jerseys I would like to have:
    Skating Friar Jersey
    AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
    UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
    Army Black Knight logo jersey


    NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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    • Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

      Before you go anywhere they need to figure out how to navigate all the different municipalities and States, arbitrary rules like temperature checking with multiple different cut off temps (which is totally useless- CDC discourages), what do you do if you travel and then the player gets sick when on the road, if they screen out so they can't board the plane, and, and, and.... Currently you would need to quarantine for 14 days after you returned or entered multiple States. If anyone on the bus screens in and is tested everyone in contact is quarantine for 14 days even if they test negative. There is no way to accurately test to screen but if you do who pays, how often, what do you use?

      Every State, town/city, school, transport company has a different set of rules- many of them are not based on medical evidence. There is no national plan to fall back on. The tests are not vetted before they are produced and sold. If they get going it won't last til Thanksgiving unless something drastically changes.

      (the list is waaaaay longer than that but those are the most common questions)

      Comment


      • Originally posted by leswp1 View Post
        Before you go anywhere they need to figure out how to navigate all the different municipalities and States, arbitrary rules like temperature checking with multiple different cut off temps (which is totally useless- CDC discourages), what do you do if you travel and then the player gets sick when on the road, if they screen out so they can't board the plane, and, and, and.... Currently you would need to quarantine for 14 days after you returned or entered multiple States. If anyone on the bus screens in and is tested everyone in contact is quarantine for 14 days even if they test negative. There is no way to accurately test to screen but if you do who pays, how often, what do you use?

        Every State, town/city, school, transport company has a different set of rules- many of them are not based on medical evidence. There is no national plan to fall back on. The tests are not vetted before they are produced and sold. If they get going it won't last til Thanksgiving unless something drastically changes.

        (the list is waaaaay longer than that but those are the most common questions)
        We’re done

        Comment


        • Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

          Originally posted by leswp1 View Post
          Before you go anywhere they need to figure out how to navigate all the different municipalities and States, arbitrary rules like temperature checking with multiple different cut off temps (which is totally useless- CDC discourages), what do you do if you travel and then the player gets sick when on the road, if they screen out so they can't board the plane, and, and, and.... Currently you would need to quarantine for 14 days after you returned or entered multiple States. If anyone on the bus screens in and is tested everyone in contact is quarantine for 14 days even if they test negative. There is no way to accurately test to screen but if you do who pays, how often, what do you use?

          Every State, town/city, school, transport company has a different set of rules- many of them are not based on medical evidence. There is no national plan to fall back on. The tests are not vetted before they are produced and sold. If they get going it won't last til Thanksgiving unless something drastically changes.

          (the list is waaaaay longer than that but those are the most common questions)
          somehow I think they'll either a) find or b) force a solution by then... but the next few weeks of "reopening" will say a lot. Is this illness confined to the nursing homes, critical care, and the hospitals? Was our interpretation of spread rates not as strong as we thought or did we do a heck of a job distancing.

          I would think if colleges come back in the fall then a lot of the other restrictions won't be there... maybe some "stragglers"... but if the colleges don't come back then obviously a lot of sports is "out" and all bets are off.
          BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

          Jerseys I would like to have:
          Skating Friar Jersey
          AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
          UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
          Army Black Knight logo jersey


          NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

          Comment


          • Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

            Originally posted by Patman View Post
            somehow I think they'll either a) find or b) force a solution by then... but the next few weeks of "reopening" will say a lot. Is this illness confined to the nursing homes, critical care, and the hospitals? Was our interpretation of spread rates not as strong as we thought or did we do a heck of a job distancing.

            I would think if colleges come back in the fall then a lot of the other restrictions won't be there... maybe some "stragglers"... but if the colleges don't come back then obviously a lot of sports is "out" and all bets are off.
            Maybe things are different where you are but up here this is being taken very seriously and we have huge numbers of community spread- outside the medical setting*. There are a lot of politics involved in how things are counted but if you ignore the label COVID and just look at numbers of deaths/hospitalizations for things like pneumonia the numbers are hugely elevated from numbers over the last 5-10 yrs (pneumonia deaths that are 6-10 times that of normal). No matter how people manage to massage the numbers there are a lot more deaths and this is across the country. Our teams play in multiple states with different rules. A number of the States are hit pretty hard.

            They may be 'reopening' but they are doing so with multiple adjustments. The rules are not arbitrary, they are based on the current evidence. The legal liability of ignoring any of that is not something they can force to go away. People may want sport but most places are not going to put their athletes up to be sacrificial lambs when they the parents/family can sue, can point to all the ways others have said this is not a good idea if they don't meet measures. The proposed NCAA regs are pretty strict. They aren't required (their way of letting people gamble with athletes' lives) but I think it would be pretty hard to legally defend against why you didn't meet them.

            If you look carefully most colleges say they are going to try but almost all of them are not able to articulate how they are going to manage it and give little if any specifics. The big money colleges are talking about testing sequentially but the cost of that is prohibitive and the logistics are also difficult. It is also moot if the athlete decides to go off the reservation.

            *just people I know personally- all NOT medical- a family member who was hosp after singing in a choir, a friend who lost a mother and brother (they think they caught it from shopping), someone who caught it from working in a warehouse and their GF caught it from them, another one who caught it from school. (I also know medical people who got it and someone's husband died in a Nursing Home).

            **They did random antibody testing in one of the hotspots down by Boston. In 1000 people there were less than 10% with antibodies. Other studies worldwide are showing approx 4-10% of the population have antibodies in random testing even when in areas of high penetration. A lot of people are not going to be comfortable feeling 'safe' for a long time.
            Last edited by leswp1; 05-28-2020, 10:14 PM.

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            • Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

              Originally posted by leswp1 View Post
              Maybe things are different where you are but up here this is being taken very seriously and we have huge numbers of community spread- outside the medical setting*. There are a lot of politics involved in how things are counted but if you ignore the label COVID and just look at numbers of deaths/hospitalizations for things like pneumonia the numbers are hugely elevated from numbers over the last 5-10 yrs (pneumonia deaths that are 6-10 times that of normal). No matter how people manage to massage the numbers there are a lot more deaths and this is across the country. Our teams play in multiple states with different rules. A number of the States are hit pretty hard.

              They may be 'reopening' but they are doing so with multiple adjustments. The rules are not arbitrary, they are based on the current evidence. The legal liability of ignoring any of that is not something they can force to go away. People may want sport but most places are not going to put their athletes up to be sacrificial lambs when they the parents/family can sue, can point to all the ways others have said this is not a good idea if they don't meet measures. The proposed NCAA regs are pretty strict. They aren't required (their way of letting people gamble with athletes' lives) but I think it would be pretty hard to legally defend against why you didn't meet them.

              If you look carefully most colleges say they are going to try but almost all of them are not able to articulate how they are going to manage it and give little if any specifics. The big money colleges are talking about testing sequentially but the cost of that is prohibitive and the logistics are also difficult. It is also moot if the athlete decides to go off the reservation.

              *just people I know personally- all NOT medical- a family member who was hosp after singing in a choir, a friend who lost a mother and brother (they think they caught it from shopping), someone who caught it from working in a warehouse and their GF caught it from them, another one who caught it from school. (I also know medical people who got it and someone's husband died in a Nursing Home).

              **They did random antibody testing in one of the hotspots down by Boston. In 1000 people there were less than 10% with antibodies. Other studies worldwide are showing approx 4-10% of the population have antibodies in random testing even when in areas of high penetration. A lot of people are not going to be comfortable feeling 'safe' for a long time.
              Well, if that's the case then we're going to see a spike and a clawback to a degree.

              Am I reading what you're saying that even pneumonia is higher than normal? Should we be talking about that as well then in our national dialog or is that just an unfortunate reality... either that or are you saying that COVID is swamping out traditional pneumonia figures. You also run the risk of having the two conflated as people aren't going to lock down society for the flu and if that equivalence is made then its likely broad society will say "we're at normal". Of course you'd think with distancing the other flus and colds would also be dropping... I don't know. My expertise is in mathematics and I can imagine how things propagate but imagination only goes so far. Either way, I am looking for further clarity in that aspect.

              I assure you that where I am they're probably nearly as reticent and restrictive as they are in most urban centers though not quite as much as NJ+NY+New England. I've been saying for awhile that if it can work through our "likely to be infected" populations and say out of the "mainstream population" then this may end quicker.... but those are all IFs... all of those are conditional statements looking for scenarios that might mean things are easier to the end.

              If, massive if, if COVID is relatively contained then we are likely to see an attempt to return to normal by fall. If it becomes uncontained all bets are off. I think everybody is engaging in either 1) wishful thinking and trying to turn that into reality, 2) self-delusion of fear which an endemic to humans working through that survival impulse in their mind. I haven't seen a third version I can categorize but I think that's where things fall and being on my side of the viewpoint I know there's a lot of people in the first camp who are doing so on some iffy reasons. I've also seen the second camp but I don't deal in that part of social media much.

              I do worry we will see a death spike in the next few weeks... I don't know about cases because I don't know how well we're getting people tested at this point. But if we don't see death or case spike that may say something interesting as well.

              We shall see.
              Last edited by Patman; 05-29-2020, 12:38 AM.
              BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

              Jerseys I would like to have:
              Skating Friar Jersey
              AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
              UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
              Army Black Knight logo jersey


              NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

              Comment


              • Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

                Alabama-Huntsville Will Play in 2020-21

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                • Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

                  Originally posted by Patman View Post
                  Well, if that's the case then we're going to see a spike and a clawback to a degree.

                  Am I reading what you're saying that even pneumonia is higher than normal? Should we be talking about that as well then in our national dialog or is that just an unfortunate reality... either that or are you saying that COVID is swamping out traditional pneumonia figures. You also run the risk of having the two conflated as people aren't going to lock down society for the flu and if that equivalence is made then its likely broad society will say "we're at normal". Of course you'd think with distancing the other flus and colds would also be dropping... I don't know. My expertise is in mathematics and I can imagine how things propagate but imagination only goes so far. Either way, I am looking for further clarity in that aspect.

                  I assure you that where I am they're probably nearly as reticent and restrictive as they are in most urban centers though not quite as much as NJ+NY+New England. I've been saying for awhile that if it can work through our "likely to be infected" populations and say out of the "mainstream population" then this may end quicker.... but those are all IFs... all of those are conditional statements looking for scenarios that might mean things are easier to the end.

                  If, massive if, if COVID is relatively contained then we are likely to see an attempt to return to normal by fall. If it becomes uncontained all bets are off. I think everybody is engaging in either 1) wishful thinking and trying to turn that into reality, 2) self-delusion of fear which an endemic to humans working through that survival impulse in their mind. I haven't seen a third version I can categorize but I think that's where things fall and being on my side of the viewpoint I know there's a lot of people in the first camp who are doing so on some iffy reasons. I've also seen the second camp but I don't deal in that part of social media much.

                  I do worry we will see a death spike in the next few weeks... I don't know about cases because I don't know how well we're getting people tested at this point. But if we don't see death or case spike that may say something interesting as well.

                  We shall see.
                  This is all in the Covfefe 19 thread. But briefly- they are under-reporting COVID. You can tell this by looking at all the unexplained increases in causes of death that previously remained stable for at least the last 5 yrs. It is not contained. Not even close. They are suppressing the number reporting- in some states forbidding numbers to be released. Looking at some of the predictors- ICU beds, hosp capacity- not good (Alabama had 3 ICU beds open for the entire county of Montgomery on Monday)

                  So far Herd immunity is not developing even in the countries where they have not shut down and encouraged life as usual (Sweden currently at ~4%).

                  I 'went to' a really interesting class on epidemic modeling. Problem with predictors is they have to take into account humans being smart or stupid- this is why there are wild ranges in predictions (and why statisticians don't do as well as epidemiologists in predicting- you need to take into consideration all the human foibles- and there are many.)

                  The issue is without a national plan and with politics motivating reporting and public health policy it makes it extremely difficult to navigate coordinating what happens next. Every locale has a different idea of what is right and they don't trust each other. Try figuring out how transport, what is required to enter to compete, what temperature is considered safe (useless but people seem in love with this)...

                  Comment


                  • Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

                    Originally posted by leswp1 View Post
                    I 'went to' a really interesting class on epidemic modeling. Problem with predictors is they have to take into account humans being smart or stupid- this is why there are wild ranges in predictions (and why statisticians don't do as well as epidemiologists in predicting- you need to take into consideration all the human foibles- and there are many.)

                    The issue is without a national plan and with politics motivating reporting and public health policy it makes it extremely difficult to navigate coordinating what happens next. Every locale has a different idea of what is right and they don't trust each other. Try figuring out how transport, what is required to enter to compete, what temperature is considered safe (useless but people seem in love with this)...
                    They should just go with stupid.

                    Cross state border travel is a big problem. No offense, I grew up in MA, but NH closed bars and restaurants just after MA did out of fear that MA residents from highly infected border counties would come to NH bars and restaurants. This is also a big part of the delay in reopening seacoast beaches. A lot of our reopening like camp grounds, golf courses is for NH residents, out of state members only. Interstate travel is already a big concern and it is only going to grow.

                    The pandemic is filled with those "where were you when" moments. I'd been hoping to see you guys play BU in the playoffs for weeks, will always remember being at work, thinking about whether or not to go to Tsongas later in the week when I heard the cancellation news and thought, "well there's a decision I don't have to make".
                    I will not be out cheered in my own building.

                    Comment


                    • Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

                      Originally posted by Darius View Post
                      They should just go with stupid.

                      Cross state border travel is a big problem. No offense, I grew up in MA, but NH closed bars and restaurants just after MA did out of fear that MA residents from highly infected border counties would come to NH bars and restaurants. This is also a big part of the delay in reopening seacoast beaches. A lot of our reopening like camp grounds, golf courses is for NH residents, out of state members only. Interstate travel is already a big concern and it is only going to grow.

                      The pandemic is filled with those "where were you when" moments. I'd been hoping to see you guys play BU in the playoffs for weeks, will always remember being at work, thinking about whether or not to go to Tsongas later in the week when I heard the cancellation news and thought, "well there's a decision I don't have to make".
                      I live 2 miles from the Tsongas and I was planning to stay home.

                      Even if you are 'smaaht' things happen. One of the scenarios I think they will have to work out is what happens if they are traveling and someone gets ill? They won't be allowed to get on a plane or a bus. DO you leave them behind, on their own? If they aren't sick enough to admit to a hospital what do you do with them- Where do they stay, etc.

                      Currently medical recommendation is if a person is sick then they and everyone they have been with have to be quarantined for 14 days unless the target person is tested negative. That is why the NBA shut down. You get one person who plays in a game and that wipes out both teams for 14 days. The logistics make my head hurt.

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                      • Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

                        Liu opening in Lowell

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                        • Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

                          Originally posted by chiefs11 View Post
                          Liu opening in Lowell
                          I think you would generate more excitement if you were playing Lucy Liu instead of LIU
                          Don’t blow it!
                          Last edited by Ryecheers; 06-03-2020, 06:26 PM.

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                          • Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

                            Originally posted by chiefs11 View Post
                            Liu opening in Lowell

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                            • Barry Scanlon @Scanlon65 Jun 12

                              Stressful time for college hockey coaches amid the pandemic. Asked for his thoughts about the proposed 3-on-3 OT format which seems likely to pass, UMass Lowell's Norm Bazin quipped, "I don't care if we play 3-on-3 the whole game. I just want to play."

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                              • Barry Scanlon @Scanlon65 Jun 17

                                Ex-UMass Lowell defenseman Cale List transferring to Norwich. Norwich coached by Cam Ellsworth, a former UML assistant. List played two seasons at UML.

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