NCAA Tourney Team Selection Options

[J.D.]

Translation: Michigan Tech has a winning record and should be in over Denver!

[jjmc85]

Make the conference tournament games mean something. They should be viewed as an extension of the NCAA tournament. Omaha went 2-3 against Denver and lost the deciding game against a shorthanded Denver squad. They could have made this a whole lot easier had they just won that game. I will have no sympathy for them if left out. Denver? You went 10-13-1. No sympathy for them if left out. To me, if the NCHC gets a 4th team it should be Denver regardless of the losing record. If the committee doesn't like the optics of that, then just give the NCHC 3 bids and let them cry about it for a year.

As a Hockey East fan, Northeastern is toast. They are now below UML in KRACH. UConn had a chance to solidify their case and failed miserably. Similar to Bowling Green. To me, they should be done. If either UML or PC win their semifinal game I think those teams enter the at large equation. If they both lose? Thanks for playing, see ya next year.

Conference tournament games do mean something. If you win, you get to go on. If you lose you don’t and your season ends unless your regular season was good enough to justify giving you a second chance. A losing record is not good enough. If ASU had instead lost a bunch of close games to UMD, UND and St. Cloud state on the road, would we be considering them for a spot? I think not.

I don’t understand the argument for Denver over anyone on the bubble really, but I will
focus on PC as this this post said they’re done if they lose. PC and DU had the same conference tournament success so far in fairly similar situations (both 5 seeds I think). Sure, covid negatively impacted Denver at a very bad time, but it’s negatively impacted everyone. Sucks but that’s what happened. Doesn’t change the fact they lost more than they won.

PC and Denver are both in conferences that have sent the most teams on average per year since realignment. PC has a winning record against Hockey East competition, Denver had a losing record. I think PC should get a bid before Denver does even if PC loses tomorrow.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Conference tournament games do mean something. If you win, you get to go on. If you lose you don’t and your season ends unless your regular season was good enough to justify giving you a second chance. A losing record is not good enough. If ASU had instead lost a bunch of close games to UMD, UND and St. Cloud state on the road, would we be considering them for a spot? I think not.

I don’t understand the argument for Denver over anyone on the bubble really, but I will
focus on PC as this this post said they’re done if they lose. PC and DU had the same conference tournament success so far in fairly similar situations (both 5 seeds I think). Sure, covid negatively impacted Denver at a very bad time, but it’s negatively impacted everyone. Sucks but that’s what happened. Doesn’t change the fact they lost more than they won.

PC and Denver are both in conferences that have sent the most teams on average per year since realignment. PC has a winning record against Hockey East competition, Denver had a losing record. I think PC should get a bid before Denver does even if PC loses tomorrow.

Agreed as to PC getting a bid over DU.

As for Denver vs. the bubble, I think you could make an argument for them over any of the Atlantic Hockey teams (strength of schedule type argument, coupled with best "quality" wins), as well as Omaha (I think it's a coinflip, but DU was 3-1-1 in regulation head-to-head against UNO, including a victory this weekend in the "tiebreaker" game between the schools). I would put both the WCHA bubble teams (Bemidji and LSSU) ahead of Denver, regardless of what happens in the WCHA Semifinals. I've been saying it for a few days now, but I think if the conference tournaments go chalk, the last at-large spot will come down to Denver and Omaha (with PC, Bemidji, and LSSU getting in, and Atlantic Hockey only getting 1 bid).

[Numbers]

Conference tournament games do mean something. If you win, you get to go on. If you lose you don’t and your season ends unless your regular season was good enough to justify giving you a second chance. A losing record is not good enough. If ASU had instead lost a bunch of close games to UMD, UND and St. Cloud state on the road, would we be considering them for a spot? I think not.

I don’t understand the argument for Denver over anyone on the bubble really, but I will
focus on PC as this this post said they’re done if they lose. PC and DU had the same conference tournament success so far in fairly similar situations (both 5 seeds I think). Sure, covid negatively impacted Denver at a very bad time, but it’s negatively impacted everyone. Sucks but that’s what happened. Doesn’t change the fact they lost more than they won.

PC and Denver are both in conferences that have sent the most teams on average per year since realignment. PC has a winning record against Hockey East competition, Denver had a losing record. I think PC should get a bid before Denver does even if PC loses tomorrow.

And,
This is an entirely valid opinion. As many have said.....anyone predicting the field is guessing at this point. What we feel sure of are:
WCHA: Mankato
NCHC: NoDak, SCSU, UMD
B10: Minn, Wisc
HEA: BC, Mass
ECAC, AHA - 1 bid each.

Obviously, that's 10 teams. The field will have 16.
After those teams, the next tier in each conference goes:
BSU, LSSU
Omaha, Denver (Denver included because when you adjust for overtime in the way the committee does, it get's lose between them and Omaha, and Denver was 3-1-1 against Omaha).
Michigan
BU, Providence
QU or AIC as at-large entries.

Trying to make an actual case for anyone is foolish because there are no OOC metrics to use. You are left with eye test. That's all.

Start adding teams by conference:
BSU, LSSU
None from NCHC - they have 3 already, and Omaha and Denver do not have the records that Bemidji and Lake have
Michigan
BU

Now, you have 2 spots left, and the candidates are:
NCHC #4
Providence
QU or AIC as at-large, if they don't win this weekend
Then, finally, Bowling Green
Michigan Tech
?????

Of those, I would take PC first.
Then, I don't know how you choose the last team. There are good reasons to favor any of the teams.

Remember, at this point, the PWR was choosing the last team in, and usually, it came down to something as obscure as whether ASU and Merrimack played in Arizona or on the east coast in November., even though neither team was involved in the decision. That one tiny thing would move the RPI needle something like .0003, and that would be the determining factor.

It's always tight margins with no 'obvious' choice at the end of the bracket.

[J.D.]

Just to be clear I am not giving some passionate defense of Denver being included in the tournament. If they get left out for going 10-13-1 there is no grave injustice that was done. I do think that if the committee does take a 4th NCHC team it should be Denver over Omaha regardless of them having a losing record. If you wanna base things just on W/L records, put 5 in from the WCHA. I just don't think that's the way to go here. There needs to be some level of comparison across conferences other than W/L. I thought that was expected.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Just to be clear I am not giving some passionate defense of Denver being included in the tournament. If they get left out for going 10-13-1 there is no grave injustice that was done. I do think that if the committee does take a 4th NCHC team it should be Denver over Omaha regardless of them having a losing record. If you wanna base things just on W/L records, put 5 in from the WCHA. I just don't think that's the way to go here. There needs to be some level of comparison across conferences other than W/L. I thought that was expected.

You Pioneer-loving sicko! ; )

[J.D.]

One more win and I think PC is in for sure. Lose and I think they will be sweating it out as a bubble team. I didn't mean 100% out. So at that point if a couple committee members have seen both Denver and Providence play and think Denver is a better team so be it. I just won't have any sympathy for bubble teams missing out unless it's the WCHA that doesn't get that 3rd team in. I think both Bemidji and LSSU should be in.

[Numbers]

FS23 -
I was reminded of one aspect of Army's resume, which is a long current unbeaten streak. Somehow, that's pushed them a little more onto the radar for me. Their early loss to Bentley is hard on them, but then, there is also this idea: If they had been in the other pod, away from AIC, would their record be similar to that of AIC, and therefore, how does one actually separate them? I have no idea, and the whole thing is just murkier and cloudier in my mind all the time.

[manurespreader]

I really miss not having emoticons. This post deserves a bunch of them. : - P

I'm only going to say it was fun knowing you JohnsonsJerseys...I am now adding you to my ignore list. I cannot stand people making strawman arguments, and that is all you do. Enjoy your life! : - )

We need more JJ's not less. He's passionate! and caring about the game.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

We need more JJ's not less. He's passionate! and caring about the game.

He's so passionate, he creates strawman arguments to push his bias! Hard pass.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

FS23 -
I was reminded of one aspect of Army's resume, which is a long current unbeaten streak. Somehow, that's pushed them a little more onto the radar for me. Their early loss to Bentley is hard on them, but then, there is also this idea: If they had been in the other pod, away from AIC, would their record be similar to that of AIC, and therefore, how does one actually separate them? I have no idea, and the whole thing is just murkier and cloudier in my mind all the time.

Yeah, there are so many problems with picking the field in a year like this. If the committee is bent on getting at least 7 eastern teams in the field, then Army certainly has an argument to be in the mix if the rest of the conference tournaments go chalk.

We also have to at least consider optics (I hope they play zero role), and a hot team coming down the stretch that perhaps just barely misses the auto-bid and just so happens to be a military school...that is going to warrant attention. Particularly where some of the other bubble teams have noticeable flaws.

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Absolutely get a service academy in the field if you can and they are worthy.

[J.D.]

I'm not sure Army is worthy. Good win over AIC but also lost to LIU. Aside from the one AIC win, it's a whole bunch of nothing. Keep Denver out for a losing record but what makes Army a better choice than even a Bowling Green, Michigan Tech, Notre Dame, UConn, UML etc. This goes back to are we just going to look at W/L and be done with it? Do people think Army is better than these teams? Guess we will find out on Sunday.

[jjmc85]

I think there has to be middle ground between straight Win/Loss and letting a sub .500 team have an at large bid, no?

[Numbers]

I'm not sure Army is worthy. Good win over AIC but also lost to LIU. Aside from the one AIC win, it's a whole bunch of nothing. Keep Denver out for a losing record but what makes Army a better choice than even a Bowling Green, Michigan Tech, Notre Dame, UConn, UML etc. This goes back to are we just going to look at W/L and be done with it? Do people think Army is better than these teams? Guess we will find out on Sunday.

By the same token, what makes any of those teams better than Army? No reason other than you expect them to be. That's why a subjective system is so tough with a spot like hockey with tight margins, and games decided by fluky plays. Garbage goals, a lucky save...etc.

I don't envy the committee.