NCAA Tourney Team Selection Options

[Numbers]

Mike Kemp said the flight is a flight theory is in play here. So with that it will be very difficult to predict a bracket. He said even if cross country it doesn't matter if it's a non stop flight (paraphrasing).

I would have to agree with the idea of difficulty predicting a bracket. We could, however, analyze a few things.....
To Loveland: No one except the CO schools is close enough to bus (Omaha is 530 miles)
To Fargo: Minn, Bemidji, Mankato, and all the Top 4 NCHC schools could drive (I am using 500 miles and Omaha is 420 or so)

East: Are all the teams involved close enough to drive to any of these? Someone???


With respect to my earlier posts:
#1 seeds: No Dak, BC, and right now Minnesota seem set (Mankato, Wisconsin and BU have chances)

The hardest thing to predict is going to be.....How does the committee compare the B10 top team (Minn or Wisc) with Mankato and with BU? Once they do that, the rest of the bracket might fill in pretty easily, save for the last couple of teams in (barring tourney upsets)

[SCSUBlackandRed]

I think the fringe at large teams could just come down to conference tournament performance. That's almost an extension of the NCAA tournament if they were to go that route.

I see you mentioned Clarkson but are you putting them in based on their performance or just to give the ECAC another slot? Not sure they deserve two bids with a 4 team league and Clarkson not really lighting the world on fire.

Yeah, I probably gave them a little more credit than maybe they deserve. They have played Quinnipiac tough so giving them points for that. They probably fall in the same range as the teams I listed as "need to do well in their conference tournament" crowd. I also think the committee is going to want to keep the bids pretty close to even split for East vs. West. So that's probably 3 NCHC, 2 WCHA and 3 B10. Maybe you go 4 NCHC but then it's 9-7 in favor of the West. Possible but not sure they do that.

And I'm starting to think I was too tough on my own team but if they get swept by UMD in the last series of the season (now split across two weekends), they move to third in the NCHC and then they could face their this year kryptonite in Western Michigan (***, I mean they are decent but that's 4 of 8 losses to a 7th place team). So if they lose to Western in the NCHC tourney, that's not a good look to get in to the big tourney. For what it's worth, SCSU did play the top teams of UND and UMD really tough so far this year. It is a pretty tough conference, I know that's not breaking news.

[SCSUBlackandRed]

I would have to agree with the idea of difficulty predicting a bracket. We could, however, analyze a few things.....
To Loveland: No one except the CO schools is close enough to bus (Omaha is 530 miles)
To Fargo: Minn, Bemidji, Mankato, and all the Top 4 NCHC schools could drive (I am using 500 miles and Omaha is 420 or so)

East: Are all the teams involved close enough to drive to any of these? Someone???


With respect to my earlier posts:
#1 seeds: No Dak, BC, and right now Minnesota seem set (Mankato, Wisconsin and BU have chances)

The hardest thing to predict is going to be.....How does the committee compare the B10 top team (Minn or Wisc) with Mankato and with BU? Once they do that, the rest of the bracket might fill in pretty easily, save for the last couple of teams in (barring tourney upsets)

For #1 seeds, I think Mankato should be a lock barring a complete meltdown, which isn't likely with their goalie. They would have been a #1 last year, a lot of that team is back and they have been solid all year. So that makes it UND, BC, Minnesota or Wisconsin (probably Minnesota but Wisconsin could win the regular season title and the conference tourney - Minnesota sucks in the conference tourney since the reformation of the Big 10). Think whichever of those two has a little slide in the next few weeks plays themselves out of a #1 seed.

UND should be the overall #1 and obviously is in Fargo. Mankato should be the #1 in Loveland but they'll get sent east if Minnesota is the other #1. Minnesota goes to Loveland and BC is the overall #2 and gets the most advantageous site out East.

IF SCSU finishes a strong second in the NCHC (regular season and tourney) they should not be sent to Fargo as the #2 there as they should be the #5 overall seed, #6 at the worst. Send them to Colorado. Taking this point further, I'd argue no second place finishers in B10, HE, NCHC or WCHA should be sent to the same region as their league champ. Screw the geography crap, don't screw the conferences.

Last point, UND couldn't be better set up to win another National Championship. One, they are a really really good team. Two, they get to play the conference tourney at home. Three, they get to play their regional essentially at home. Is what it is on the last two points but it's a definite advantage for a team that doesn't look like they need it.

[Numbers]

Blackbird,
I agree with respect to NoDak. It's almost not fair, really. They have a situation where they can bid any year to host in either Fargo or Sioux Falls, and their fans will always go (when it's no COVID). It's not really complaining on my part, just acknowledging the reality.

As for Mankato, they didn't have an easy time tonight with Bemidji, even at home. I think you can make a decent argument that, given the balance of strength traditionally in the Big 10 versus the WCHA, that both Minnesota and Wisconsin have at least as good of results. Imagine, for example, and situation in which Mankato does not win out from now until the end of their tourney, and UM and UW play in the B10 final. In that case, I think you can make an argument that the 2 B10 teams are stronger than Mankato.

It's sort of like this year, how do you know?
I expect from the West:
For sure 8 teams....
3 B10
3 NCHC for sure
1 WCHA for sure
1 more extra from the NCHC or WCHA
and possibly one more, even if tourneys go chalk

In the East, I expect:
3 HE
1 ECAC
1 AHA
2 more from among HE #4&5 or Clarkson

If Tourneys go weird, then who knows.

As for Regionals....
I think the committee is going to do their usual idea of no intraconference play in Round 1, but I don't think that will hold for round 2.
If they tried to keep it for Round 2 as well, as you have suggested, then you might have to fly one of the NCHC teams out East, which is possible.

But, considering what they have done before, I don't think they will choose that.

I guess we'll see, and as usual, the next 2 weekends will be interesting.

[J.D.]

Northeastern vs. Providence this weekend. A sweep for either team probably launches them into the field.

[JohnsonsJerseys]

situation in which Mankato does not win out from now until the end of their tourney, and UM and UW play in the B10 final. In that case, I think you can make an argument that the 2 B10 teams are stronger than Mankato.

And unfortunately with this statement you negated the validity of your post because the basis of your conclusions are "big name programs are better than other programs...".

Bemidji played no BigTen teams.
Mankato played no BigTen teams.
Minnesota played no WCHA teams.
Wisconsin played no WCHA teams.

There is no argument/comparison to be made between the WCHA and BigTen for the 2020-21 season because there is zero data to review.
Bemidji and Makato will likely show themselves to be two of the top teams in the WCHA this season.
WI and MN will likely show themselves to be two of the top teams in the BigTen this season.
That is where the analysis ends.

If you believe Mankato is good, then Bemidji is also good because they have the head to games to show it. After being shut out in the season opener, BSU lost by one goal in regulation, lost in OT, beat Mankato 4-1 and lost last night in OT. We'll see how they do tonight when the series moves back to Bemidji for their 6th meeting.

Usually it is the NCHC teams flying this "relative comparison" flag.
"We're better than all the others."
"Why?"
"Because we're telling you..."
*roll eyes*

[J.D.]

Are you saying Bemidji should be 2nd WCHA team in? Or how many from WCHA?

[manurespreader]

I just use the eye test and there is no way 4 or 5 teams from HE deserve to be in. 3 is a gift. I'd take 3 from the B1g, I think Mankato is the equal of any of the B1g teams, I don't think the NCHC is as good recent years even though ND is . 2 at most for AH and 1 for ECAC, though if Clarkson wins a lot here a the end you might put them in.

[J.D.]

You've managed to watch all these teams? To say 3 from HE is a gift is ridiculous. Give me your field with only two from HE...

[Fighting Sioux 23]

You've managed to watch all these teams? To say 3 from HE is a gift is ridiculous. Give me your field with only two from HE...

At least 3 from Hockey East get in. Probably 4.

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 12 teams in 1988, only 3 times has Hockey East been limited to 2 teams: 1993, 1997, and 2008. Hockey East teams won in 1993 (Maine - perhaps the best team ever) and 2008 (BC), and made the title game in 1997 (BU lost to North Dakota : - D)

[jjmc85]

I think BC is in. I think UMass is in now too after this past week. I think BU is in unless they have an absolute meltdown next week and in the hockey East quarters. Hockey East will get at least three, maybe four depending on the tournament winner.

[J.D.]

This PC-NU series is big. If someone gets a sweep they are in position to make the field.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

How I would pick the tournament...

Utilize the following criteria for participants: (1) Modified CC Rule (i.e. Regular Season and Conference Tournament champions from B1G, Hockey East, NCHC, and WCHA; and Conference Tournament champions from Atlantic Hockey and ECAC get auto-bids); and (2) Top remaining team from each conference per their KRACH ranking selected as at large.

For the purposes of this analysis, I will presume that for the Modified CC Rule conferences, the 2nd best team (per KRACH) will win the Conference Tournament. In the future, if the same team from a Modified CC Rule conference were to win both conference titles, I would then award that conference 2 at-large bids (based on KRACH). I would also then apply a Modified Clarkson Rule and award the double winner a #1 seed.

That gives us: (selection criteria in parenthesis)
Atlantic Hockey:
AIC (1)
Robert Morris (2)

B1G:
Minnesota (1)
Wisconsin (1)
Michigan (2)

ECAC:
Quinnipiac (1)
Clarkson (2)

Hockey East:
Boston College (1)
Boston University (1)
Massachusetts (2)

NCHC:
North Dakota (1)
St. Cloud State (1)
Minnesota Duluth (2)

WCHA:
Minnesota State (1)
Bemidji State (1)
Bowling Green (2)

I'll give the #1 seeds to the top team from the Modified CC Rule conferences. The #2 seeds will go to the second best teams from the Modified CC Rule conferences. The #3 seeds will be the top teams from the Atlantic Hockey and ECAC conferences, along with the remaining teams from the NCHC and Hockey East (best conferences per recent history). The #4 seeds will be the at-large teams from Atlantic Hockey, B1G, ECAC, and WCHA. That gives us:

#1 Seeds: (alphabetical order at this point)
Boston College
Minnesota
Minnesota State
North Dakota

#2 Seeds:
Bemidji State
Boston University
St. Cloud State
Wisconsin

#3 Seeds:
AIC
Massachusetts
Minnesota Duluth
Quinnipiac

#4 Seeds:
Bowling Green
Clarkson
Michigan
Robert Morris

It is probably almost impossible to truly award a #1 overall seed this year. Really, any of the #1 seeds could make a very good claim for the top spot. Given that, I won't utilize a top overall seed or try to protect such a team.

I will also use the following criteria for the first-round matchups: (1) no inter-conference games (and if possible, try to avoid inter-conference in regional finals); and (2) do best to keep bus teams (I believe the NCAA has previously utilized 400 miles) within a bus-distance regional. Teams with an * are going to be a flight regardless of where they can be placed. Teams with a # can bus to the venue. Teams with a (H) are the host. Given that, here would be me current Bracketology:

Albany Regional:
1. Minnesota* vs. 4. Clarkson#
2. Boston University# vs. 3. Quinnipiac#

Bridgeport Regional:
1. Boston College# vs. 4. Bowling Green*
2. Wisconsin* vs. 3. Massachusetts#

Fargo Regional
1. North Dakota(H) vs. 4. Robert Morris*
2. Bemidji State# vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth#

Loveland Regional:
1. Minnesota State* vs. 4. Michigan*
2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. AIC

All the teams that are going to have to fly, are flying. The only teams that could otherwise bus (SCSU and AIC) are sent to Loveland. SCSU goes to Loveland instead of Fargo because: (a) it maximizes bus teams (otherwise UMD would have to go elsewhere); and (b) avoids a potential inter-conference 1 vs. 2 regional final. AIC gets sent out west (instead of QU or Massachuetts) because...well...no real reason? They are an Atlantic Hockey team? QU and UMass have been to recent Frozen Fours? Regardless, we have to send one of the 3 seeds that could bus out west. I picked AIC because: (a) recent history; (b) they are an Atlantic Hockey team; and (c) a potential "reward" to SCSU for having to fly when they could otherwise bus.

Anyway, that's what I would do. Based on the recent statements by the actual committee, I am going to guess that they will go a different route, but I think this is a good combination of objective + utilizing recent history to determine the field. Just my two cents... : - D

[J.D.]

Mike McMahon mentioned how Omaha was close to being bus trip distance to Loveland. You wonder if the NCAA could make a temporary COVID year tweak. I have also wondered if when picking the final team or two if being a flight team vs. bus could impact the decision.

[J.D.]

The WCHA is gonna be fascinating to me. Bemidji, BG, LSSU, and MTU are probably all in contention and I would think how the conference tournament unfolds could ultimately decide who gets that 2nd and possibly 3rd slot.