Originally posted by SJHovey
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Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
The B1G is traditional? They haven't been around 10 years yet! :-D ;-)That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.
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Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
Modified Colorado College Rule, applicable to Hockey East, B1G, NCHC, and WCHA. 1 Auto-bid for AHA and ECAC.
Put in place criteria for the remaining 6 selections, including: (1) the team must be over .500; (2a) for teams in conferences, the team must be in the top-half of the conference (regular season) or have advanced to the conference's tournament championship game; (2b) for Independents, the team must have at least 1 win over a top-half CC Rule conference team; and (3) no more than 2 additional teams from any one conference. This should bring the total teams in consideration for the remaining 6 selections down to approximately 13-15 teams. The smoke-filled room takes it from there, but at least there are specific criteria in place heading into the selection.
AHA:
AIC
Robert Morris
Army
Canisius
RIT
Sacred Heart
Mercyhurst
B1G:
Minnesota*
Wisconsin
Michigan
Notre Dame
Penn State
ECAC:
Quinnipiac
Clarkson
St. Lawrence
Colgate
Hockey East:
Boston College*
Boston University
Massachusetts
Northeastern
Providence
Connecticut
Massachusetts Lowell
NCHC:
SCSU
Minnesota Duluth
Nebraska Omaha
WCHA:
Minnesota State*
LSSU
Bowling Green
Northern Michigan
Bemidji State
Michigan Tech
Auto Bids:
AHA Tournament Champion
B1G Tournament Champion
B1G Regular Season Champion
ECAC Tournament Champion
Hockey East Tournament Champion
Hockey East Regular Season Champion
NCHC Tournament Champion
North Dakota (NCHC Regular Season Champion)
WCHA Tournament Champion
WCHA Regular Season Champion
Would Need Tournament Auto Bid: (Alphabetical)
Air Force
Alabama Huntsville
Bentley
Colorado College
Denver
Ferris State
Holy Cross
Maine
Merrimack
Miami
Michigan State
New Hampshire
Niagara
Ohio State
Vermont
Western Michigan
Eliminated
Arizona State
Long Island
*Currently in line for conference's Regular Season Champion Auto BidLast edited by Fighting Sioux 23; 02-21-2021, 08:01 AM.North Dakota
National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016
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I think Mike Kemp said they approached the NCAA about a certain # of slots per conference and the NCAA shot that "multiple auto bid" approach down. They are still going to use RPI or whatever to evaluate teams within a conference because of the unbalanced schedules and not all teams playing same number of games etc. At the same time the committee will be using eye test and whether they want to admit it or not "historical evidence" to select the at large field.
They also approached Pittsburgh about hosting the entire 16 team tournament there but that was deemed not to be feasible so that is why they are sticking with 4 regional format provided local authorities allow it. At this point with people getting vaccinated and cases dropping in a lot of places, I would think it's a go. As far as I know an official replacement for Manchester has not been named but I thought they said that was being finalized.
They also said the NCAA told them to try and limit travel even more than usual but with one of the regionals being in Loveland with Denver not being in contention, that is going to be interesting. As things stand now, you would think the best options for Loveland are teams like Minnesota, Wisconsin, St. Cloud, Duluth, Minnesota State. So do you flood the Loveland and Fargo regionals with those teams or does the fact everyone would be flying to Loveland anyway change that approach?Last edited by J.D.; 02-21-2021, 10:44 AM.
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Originally posted by J.D. View PostI think Mike Kemp said they approached the NCAA about a certain # of slots per conference and the NCAA shot that "multiple auto bid" approach down. They are still going to use RPI or whatever to evaluate teams within a conference because of the unbalanced schedules and not all teams playing same number of games etc. At the same time the committee will be using eye test and whether they want to admit it or not "historical evidence" to select the at large field.
As for using PWR/RPI/KRACH to evaluate teams within a conference, it makes sense. However, as you noted, then they will have to use some sort of historical evidence to pick teams. For example, AIC is currently ranked 7th in PWR, while Minnesota Duluth is ranked 21st. Fair or not, there is no way that the Yellowjackets get picked over the Bulldogs for an at-large spot. We all have to accept that there will be a lot of subjectivity in this year's selection. What I like about using the Modified CC Rule is instead of using that subjectivity to dole out 10 at-large bids, it would only be used for 6 at-large spots. Personally, I would be okay with the Modified CC Rule + 1 at-large per conference based on RPI/KRACH.
Originally posted by JDThey also approached Pittsburgh about hosting the entire 16 team tournament there but that was deemed not to be feasible so that is why they are sticking with 4 regional format provided local authorities allow it. At this point with people getting vaccinated and cases dropping in a lot of places, I would think it's a go. As far as I know an official replacement for Manchester has not been named but I thought they said that was being finalized.
Originally posted by JDThey also said the NCAA told them to try and limit travel even more than usual but with one of the regionals being in Loveland with Denver not being in contention, that is going to be interesting. As things stand now, you would think the best options for Loveland are teams like Minnesota, Wisconsin, St. Cloud, Duluth, Minnesota State. So do you flood the Loveland and Fargo regionals with those teams or does the fact everyone would be flying to Loveland anyway change that approach?
As for Loveland, it doesn't look promising for any of the "local" teams. I'm guessing we wind up with the leftovers from the Fargo Regional teams noted above, along with a Michigan, Michigan Tech, Bowling Green, and/or LSSU...who likely would all be flights if they make the tournament (obviously, depending on the location of the 4th regional). It looks like most of the potential eastern teams that make it will almost certainly be within rough driving distance of the regionals, so I would guess that all the eastern teams that make it will be out east. Using the CHN Power 16 (the teams, not necessarily the rankings) from this last week as an example, I would guess at the regionals looking something like this:
Fargo:
1. North Dakota v. 4. Bowling Green
2. Minnesota State v. 3. St. Cloud State
Three teams within driving distance, and avoids intra-conference matchups.
Loveland:
1. Minnesota v. 4. Nebraska Omaha
2. Michigan v. 3. Minnesota Duluth
All are flights, and avoids intra-conference matchups.
TBD East Regional (assuming somewhere near Boston):
1. Boston College v. 4. AIC
2. Boston University v. 3. Clarkson
All within driving distance.
Bridgeport:
1. Wisconsin v. 4. Connecticut
2. Quinnipiac v. 3. Massachusetts
Three teams within driving distance, and Wisconsin is a flight anywhere but Fargo, which was full.
I don't like it, but I think this is fairly close to the logic they would employ, which is essentially: (1) No intra-conference matchups; (2) get teams to regionals as close as possible; and (3) keep teams as close as possible to their true seeding, but able to flex around as necessary.North Dakota
National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016
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Originally posted by J.D. View PostGood work. You really think Clarkson gets in or are you projecting them to win ECAC? With only 4 teams, I can only see Clarkson in if they win tournament. Granted they are 2-2-2 against Quinnipiac but not so great outside of that.
FWIW, I have not watched a single college game outside of the NCHC this season, with the exception of about half of the Michigan-Wisconsin game the other weekend. I have no real idea how strong/weak any of the teams outside the NCHC are this year.North Dakota
National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016
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Originally posted by J.D. View PostWhich begs the question, how much are the committee members really watching in order to compare teams across conferences? In this one odd year, falling back on historical data is a legitimate way of doing things.
I get it. We are spoiled in college hockey with a normal objective(-ish?) way to select our NCAA Tournament qualifiers. That is gone this year, so we are all looking for other pieces of objective criteria to select the teams this year. Historical data (to some extent) is a fair and objective tool to use; however, it can be subjectively manipulated. For example, if we go back to 1987-1988, you could argue LSSU is a top 3-5 program in college hockey. If we go back only to 2017-2018, North Dakota has never made the NCAA Tournament. The same can be said for conferences. Historically, the WCHA is the best college hockey conference in history. The last 6-8 years? Not so much.
Personally, the more I think about it, I would prefer the Modified CC Rule + 1 at large from each conference based on Pairwise/RPI/KRACH. Yeah, Atlantic Hockey and the 4-team ECAC get two teams in, and probably a legitimate title contender from Hockey East, B1G, WCHA, and/or NCHC gets left home, but it is a decent blend of pure objective data (winning conference hardware) with historical data (limiting Atlantic Hockey to 1 auto-bid along with the 4-team ECAC). Of course, I say this after my team has clinched one of those auto-bids...so please take my opinion with a grain (bucket?) of salt. : - )North Dakota
National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016
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Mike Kemp was on another podcast and revealed Albany as Manchester replacement. He also said with the Colorado schools not currently in the mix for a tournament spot, they have more flexibility with the flight is a flight theory. He indicated there could be a lot more bracket integrity than you would think given the NCAA said to limit travel. Now of course, bracket integrity is still not as clear since the PWR isn't being used. But still, doesn't seem like it will be all western teams in west and all eastern teams in east.
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Ok, might as well have called the post/suggestion from the Tech guy "Hey, Let's Screw the NCHC, Big Ten and HE Because They Hurt Our Feelings NCAA Tournament Plan."
In no logical universe (or illogical as is the world we currently live in) does the AHA deserve 3 NCAA bids in Men's D1 hockey. Historical performance shouldn't drive exact allocations/bids but it should inform decisions this year. Conferences don't go from strong to weak or the reverse in this sport. I'm not saying allocate spots exactly as they have played out in the past but that should be a guide as to who gets in. At the same time, don't excessively reward historically strong conferences (I do think the NCHC is down a little this year, I've watched a good amount).And bids should be determined and reward teams for their play over the course of the season with the exception being auto-bids given to conference tourney champs. And the whole "fair" allocation using a percentage of your total schools in a conference is absolute garbage. That is some participation ribbon BS right there.
Pairwise is absolute garbage this year but I think it is definitely showing the value of itself in normal years. Can't wait to have that back. I do like Fighting Sioux 23's reference/reliance on the Modified CC rules. All pretty good requirements in a year like this one. I'd add one more, requirement of 20 games played by regular season/conference championships are concluded. Playing less games is an advantage when you get into the tourney, lots less wear and tear on the players. Teams that found a way to keep themselves clear of the virus and complete almost a normal season should be rewarded. But I'll digress on that as the NCAA picked 13 as the number and most teams will meet that criteria.
So with all that said, this is who I'd put in the tourney as of right now based on regular season records also factoring in performance against top teams in their respective leagues:
AHA (Surprise! Potentially two here in spite of what I said above)
AIC - they deserve to be in regardless of winning their conference tournament
Army or Robert Morris (if either wins the conference tournament, neither if they don't)
Big 10 (we've got an issue if one of these three doesn't win the conference tourney)
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan
ECAC
Quinnippiac
Clarkson
Hockey East
BC
BU (really don't like this one based on total games played, but they qualify per the NCAA and they have had some really good wins)
UMass
NCHC
UND
SCSU, UMD or UNO (pick two of three - whoever finishes higher and also factor in conference tourney performance)
WCHA
Minnesota State (Mankato)
Bowling Green, Lake Superior, Bemidji or Michigan Tech (pick two of three - same criteria as NCHC, a lot is going to change with these teams in the coming weeks)
Leaves one spot open. Probably going to see an upset somewhere in a conference tourney, so that somewhat allows for that. Or if there isn't, can pick from the just missed list of the NCHC and WCHA and probably bring in Providence or Northeastern into the discussion.
Going to be some teams upset with the committee's decisions. But as things stand right now, the field above looks pretty good to me.
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I think the fringe at large teams could just come down to conference tournament performance. That's almost an extension of the NCAA tournament if they were to go that route.
I see you mentioned Clarkson but are you putting them in based on their performance or just to give the ECAC another slot? Not sure they deserve two bids with a 4 team league and Clarkson not really lighting the world on fire.
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Originally posted by J.D. View PostI think the fringe at large teams could just come down to conference tournament performance. That's almost an extension of the NCAA tournament if they were to go that route.
I see you mentioned Clarkson but are you putting them in based on their performance or just to give the ECAC another slot? Not sure they deserve two bids with a 4 team league and Clarkson not really lighting the world on fire.
I agree that a lot is going to come down to the conference tournaments. In the AHA, WCHA and ECAC, if the best teams win the tournament, I don't think you'll see many at-large teams from the three conferences, with the exception of the WCHA. It's possible, depending upon the finish of the season and the tournament, that we could see as many as three WCHA teams, although my bet would probably be on two right now.
You have to figure Minnesota is a lock, and Wisconsin almost a lock out of the B1G. Michigan seems to be on the right side of the bubble, depending upon their finish, but upsets from teams like Notre Dame, Clarkson or in the AHA might doom them.
The top four in the NCHC seem like a pretty solid bet, although I'd only lock in SCSU and UND right now. But again, I could see UMD or Omaha getting bounced if they finish in a "meh" fashion and there are upsets elsewhere.
HE is a mystery to me. It seems like BC and BU have to be locks, with UMass also a pretty solid bet. I think they'll get another team, but I have no idea which team it will be, and depending upon upsets elsewhere, that might change.
My personal opinion is that, by selection Sunday, there will probably be about 12 or 13 teams that "most" hockey observers will agree should be in, but the trick will be the last 3-4 teams, and seeding.That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.
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If you don't mind.....(btw, where is Ticapnews?)...
I think the following are locks:
AHA: AIC
B10: Minnesota, Wisconsin
ECAC: Quinnipiac
HE: BC, BU
WCHA: MSU-M
NCHC: UND
Then, it seems to me that the following tiers of choices would be in play (somewhat subjective, because this isn't entirely by record, and I am going to give NCHC a lot of credit here):
Tier 1: SCSU, Michigan
Tier 2: UMD, Massachusetts, UNO (although UNO would be at the bottom of this list)
Tier 3: Northeastern
Tier 4: Providence, Clarkson, Bemidji, Bowling Green, Army
I'd be pretty sure the entire field will come from among these.
In the usual way we talk about, I suppose that Bemidji and Bowling Green, and for sure Army are going to have a hard time arguing their case without a Tournament Championship.
As for the bracket....A lot depends on how highly the committee eventually values BU. At present, the #1s would obviously be BC, UND, Minnesota and ??? (Although this could change). BU and UW would be the potential 4th #1, imo.
Since there is some kind of suggestion to limit travel, I would guess that you will see very little travel cross country, so I'd expect something like this:
Loveland: Minnesota, NCHC #2, Wisconsin, NCHC #4(?)
Fargo: NoDak, Mankato, NCHC #3, Michigan...with preference to St Cloud and Duluth for this regional.
Albany: BU, UMass, Clarkson (?), Providence (?)
Bridgeport: BC, Quinnipiac, Northeastern, AIC with a possibility of a 2nd WCHA team ending up in an eastern region.
Of course, this is highly dependent on tourneys. Let's just say that BG or BSU wins the WCHA. And, that someone besides AIC wins the AHA....then you have a more difficult situation.....You would start thinking like this:
Eastern teams: BC, BU, QU, AIC, AHA Champ, UMass....???
Western teams: UM, UW, UND, MSU-M, WCHA Champ.....???
And, in the West, it's pretty easy to pencil in 2 or 3 more NCHC teams, plus Michigan. And, again, you end up with, likely, some Western team flying to Albany.
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