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  • As of right now I would still have Bemidji in. Probably the 4 seed in Fargo. But they'll be sweating it out tomorrow for sure. If NMU wins, they take Bemidji's spot in Fargo.

    I think Canisius has a decent shot to knock off AIC. Good record, beat Army and played in what looks to be the tougher of the Atlantic divisions. If AIC loses that is what I am curious about. Until today they hadn't played since January and now they got a back to back situation against a team that has been playing. I do think there's a chance AIC gets an at large if they lose. And with that, FDF just had a heart attack.

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    • Originally posted by J.D. View Post
      As of right now I would still have Bemidji in. Probably the 4 seed in Fargo. But they'll be sweating it out tomorrow for sure. If NMU wins, they take Bemidji's spot in Fargo.

      I think Canisius has a decent shot to knock off AIC. Good record, beat Army and played in what looks to be the tougher of the Atlantic divisions. If AIC loses that is what I am curious about. Until today they hadn't played since January and now they got a back to back situation against a team that has been playing. I do think there's a chance AIC gets an at large if they lose. And with that, FDF just had a heart attack.
      I'm agreeing with you about Bemidji and NMU. You can't make a reasonable argument for 4 WCHA teams over 4 B10s or such, so there will likely be only 3 WCHA teams in the field. LSSU seems like they need to be the 2nd. So, if NMU wins the title, Bemidji is out.

      I can't really imagine 5 HE teams in either, so if Lowell wins, then no Prov or Conn
      Past that, it gets really murky.....
      If St Lawrence wins, who is the next out? I doubt if it's Quinn. Might be the NCHC4 or the HEA4
      If Canisius wins, how would you rank AIC, Omaha and Providence?

      Big questions there....

      Comment


      • That's tough because I haven't seen AIC at all this year. And I know history isn't necessarily supposed to be a factor but we've seen them beat SCSU and Eric Lang is doing something special there. So when I look at their record, I don't think it would be crazy to take them over PC/Omaha in a year like this. The one thing you can point to as a negative is they got swept by Quinnipiac. That's not a terrible thing to say but it could ultimately play a role in evaluating them.

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        • Here is where I think things roughly stand (again, with the committee) going into the last day of the conference tournaments, if things go chalk:

          1. North Dakota#!%
          2. Minnesota#!
          3. Boston College!
          4. Minnesota State Mankato!
          --------
          5. Massachusetts#*
          6. Wisconsin*
          7. Quinnipiac#*
          8. St. Cloud State*
          --------
          9. Minnesota Duluth*
          10. Lake Superior State#*
          11. Michigan*
          12. Boston University*
          --------
          13. Providence
          14. Bemidji State
          15. Omaha
          16. AIC#

          # = Clinched Conference's Auto-Bid (or clinches if brackets go chalk)
          ! = Lock for #1 Seed
          % = Lock for #1 Overall Seed
          * = Lock for NCAA Tournament (regardless of today's results)

          Potential brackets with this field...

          Bridgeport:
          3. Boston College v. 16. AIC
          7. Quinnipiac v. 12. Boston University

          Fargo:
          1. North Dakota v. 14. Bemidji State
          8. St. Cloud State v. 10. Lake Superior State

          Albany:
          4. Minnesota State v. 13. Providence
          5. Massachusetts v. 11. Michigan

          Loveland:
          2. Minnesota v. 15. Omaha
          6. Wisconsin v. 9. Minnesota Duluth

          I would also be perfectly fine with swapping the SCSU/LSSU and UW/UMD matches in their entirety.

          I also think it will be very interesting to see where Minnesota is placed. They are almost certainly the second #1 seed for western teams (if not #2 overall, as I have them). Does the committee "reward" them by keeping them out West? Or do they send them out to Albany? There is basically no difference travel wise between Minnesota and Minnesota State if we are presuming they are going to the Loveland/Albany regionals as #1 seeds. The more I think about it, the more I think it is likely that the Gophers wind up in Loveland.
          North Dakota
          National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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          • Despite Denver's record, giving the nod to Omaha over them bothers me but I understand the overall math is in Omaha's favor. I am cheering for a way to get both of them out and leave the NCHC with just the three. That might cause the world to spontaneously combust but I'm in! Would be a frosty discussion between Mike Gabinet and Mike Kemp I am sure. So with Kemp on the committee and the regional being in Loveland, it's probably the biggest question mark in this entire thing.

            I have mentioned it a couple times but based on your rankings I wouldn't rule out BC and UMass to Albany as the 1/2 and then send the stronger #1 like Minnesota to Bridgeport with a "weaker" two seed in QU. It's not like they will be playing in front of a Bobcat home crowd and they would be flying to Loveland or Albany in this scenario.

            I do agree with your top 12. I haven't done all the possibilities but based on upsets today is there a way that one of those current #3s gets knocked out? And if so, do you think the committee would knock a team out based more on merit/ability or based on what conference they are in and how many teams that conference will have in the field?

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
              Loveland:
              2. Minnesota v. 15. Omaha
              6. Wisconsin v. 9. Minnesota Duluth

              Does the committee "reward" them by keeping them out West? Or do they send them out to Albany? There is basically no difference travel wise between Minnesota and Minnesota State if we are presuming they are going to the Loveland/Albany regionals as #1 seeds. The more I think about it, the more I think it is likely that the Gophers wind up in Loveland.
              What you've proposed here is not a "reward" in any way. Flying to CO for an insane regional vs flying east for a weaker one? The reward would be east.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by J.D. View Post
                Despite Denver's record, giving the nod to Omaha over them bothers me but I understand the overall math is in Omaha's favor. I am cheering for a way to get both of them out and leave the NCHC with just the three. That might cause the world to spontaneously combust but I'm in! Would be a frosty discussion between Mike Gabinet and Mike Kemp I am sure. So with Kemp on the committee and the regional being in Loveland, it's probably the biggest question mark in this entire thing.

                I have mentioned it a couple times but based on your rankings I wouldn't rule out BC and UMass to Albany as the 1/2 and then send the stronger #1 like Minnesota to Bridgeport with a "weaker" two seed in QU. It's not like they will be playing in front of a Bobcat home crowd and they would be flying to Loveland or Albany in this scenario.

                I do agree with your top 12. I haven't done all the possibilities but based on upsets today is there a way that one of those current #3s gets knocked out? And if so, do you think the committee would knock a team out based more on merit/ability or based on what conference they are in and how many teams that conference will have in the field?
                I think if there are any upsets today, Denver/Omaha are likely gone. I just think PC and Bemidji State have stronger arguments (and potentially even an AIC). Going a step further, if there are two or more upsets, then I think for sure Denver/Omaha are out of the mix.

                As for Minnesota to Bridgeport, the more I keep thinking about it, and the committee's emphasis on travel this year, I keep coming back to Minnesota going out to Loveland. It's (slightly) less travel than any of the eastern regionals, and could be seen as a "reward" for the Gophers. That being said, if we send BC to Albany (I agree, I would not rule that out either, but I think it is less likely), then the "punishment" for a western team going out east grows further, as the travel would be (again, slightly) further and they would potentially have to play a couple of "home" teams in Providence and Quinnipiac to get to the Frozen Four. It is a very interesting debate, but, as I said, the more I think about it, I think the Gophers are going to Loveland (which means they may be rooting hard for upsets to avoid Denver or Omaha in the first round).

                I really don't see many scenarios where one of the current #3s gets knocked out. Worst case scenario for these teams would be:

                Lowell upsets Massachusetts
                St. Lawrence upsets Quinnipiac
                Northern Michigan upsets LSSU
                Canisius upsets AIC

                Those teams would almost certainly be the four #4 seeds.

                So, who currently on the #4 line (PC, Bemidji, Denver/Omaha, AIC) would have a case to take out a team on the #3 line?

                I'll start with saying that I would be absolutely stunned, fall off my chair shocked if Minnesota Duluth or Michigan failed to make the tournament. So that leaves BU and LSSU.

                Providence probably doesn't get the nod over BU, and I struggle to think that the committee would take 5 Hockey East teams this year. So in this scenario, I think PC is probably done, and BU is probably safe.

                AIC also probably comes up short. I suppose an argument could be made to put in AIC over LSSU, but I would probably weigh that battle about 90/10 in favor of LSSU, but still a chance.

                Denver/Omaha, as has been explored at great length in this thread, simply don't deserve to be knocking out top 3 teams from top conferences, so BU is safe. I think LSSU is also probably safe, but if the committee got a hair up its behind and needed to have Denver in as a local team (which I really do not think will happen), then maybe they are in danger. In any event, I would probably weigh that battle at about 98/2 in favor of LSSU.

                Finally, and the biggest chance a current #3 seed (at least based on what we are all guessing) has to get knocked out would be Bemidji State. I think BU is probably safe here, but LSSU would have a decent argument up against it. Bemidji State went 2-1-1 against LSSU in the regular season (albeit with 1 OT win). The semifinal yesterday likely was the tiebreaker, but I think you could make an argument that Bemidji's record against Mankato (2-2-1) compared with LSSU's record against Mankato (0-2, getting outscored 9-2) could also serve as a quasi-tiebreaker. I still think LSSU would get the nod in this scenario, but I would probably weigh the battle about 70/30 in favor of LSSU.
                North Dakota
                National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

                Comment


                • They keep going by a flight is a flight though. I don't think they care how long of a flight it is. And the home team factor might even be a non factor with no fans. I think Bob Motzko would take the Bridgeport regional over the Loveland one you have.

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                  • Ya, the Gophers fly to PSU every year. They would prefer a long flight over letting Mankato fly the same distance out there.
                    Last edited by Bonin21; 03-20-2021, 09:16 AM.

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                    • Free streaming options for these games tonight?

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                      • Originally posted by J.D. View Post
                        They keep going by a flight is a flight though. I don't think they care how long of a flight it is. And the home team factor might even be a non factor with no fans. I think Bob Motzko would take the Bridgeport regional over the Loveland one you have.
                        Oh for sure. Just like they don't care how long a flight is for Minnesota State. That being said, Loveland is closer, it is one of the western regionals, and the Gophers are the higher seed.

                        Also, and I know you know this but, Motzko has no say in what regional they are sent to. I understand Minnesota fans would probably want the eastern regional, but I think the committee could very well "reward" them with the West regional.

                        Further, I think there is an outside shot that Massachusetts gets the last #1 seed over Minnesota State Mankato if the Minutemen win today. If that happens, then for certain Minnesota is going to Loveland. As I said, the more and more I think about it, it probably makes more sense (in the committee's mind) for Minnesota to go to Loveland than Albany (or Bridgeport).
                        North Dakota
                        National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

                        Comment


                        • I would do:
                          #1s: NoDak/Minn, BC/Mankato
                          #2s: Mass/Wisc/SCSU, Quinn
                          #3s: UMD/Mich, BU/LSSU (esp if LSSU wins today)
                          #4s: PC/UNO, BSU/AIC
                          Here's my logic.
                          / means the teams are close to level with each other. , means there is a gap between these.

                          So, first round matchups:
                          UND v BSU (or NMU - if NMU wins, this gets easier)
                          MSUM v PC
                          Minn v AIC is best
                          BC v UNO

                          Problem is: It's hard to get BC v UNO if it costs you a flight, and DU is worse. Minn v AIC is also tough to get without flying PC, because you can't slot PC with BC very easily (unless you suspend that rule this year).

                          2 v 3 games:
                          SCSU v Mich
                          Quinn v UMD
                          Wisc v BU
                          Mass v LSSU

                          That's how it should be for a competitively correct bracket. That means that the committee couldn't have an all-bus Fargo region, which I am sure they want. So, if Mass, Wisc and SCSU are roughly level, let's try:
                          Wisc v UMD (I think this cheats the Badgers, but....?)
                          SCSU v BU
                          Quinn v Mich
                          Mass v LSSU
                          I could live with this.

                          Fargo: NoDak v BSU/NMU, Wisc v UMD
                          Albany: Minn v AIC, Quinn v Mich (2 flights)
                          Bridgeport: BC v UNO, Mass v LSSU (2 flights)
                          Loveland: Mankato v PC, SCSU v BU (all flights)
                          Reduces by 2 flights if you put PC against BC

                          Upsets:
                          St Lawrence wins: Either NCHC4 or PC is out (not sure which)
                          Lowell wins: PC is out (this one's easy - HEA isn't getting 5 teams in)
                          NMU wins: BSU is out (same as above - WCHA gets 3 max)
                          Canisius wins: AIC/PC/NCHC4 is out.

                          On the 4 line, it's hard to know how to evaluate AIC/PC/NCHC4. This is the real problem for the committee, and it is the easy part of having the PWR before, because the math took care of the evaluation, and drew a hard, (sometimes very fine) line.

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                          • Higher seed to us maybe but this year the committee can fudge it however they want. Would be kinda cool if they released how they ranked the teams 1-16 but won't happen.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by J.D. View Post
                              Despite Denver's record, giving the nod to Omaha over them bothers me but I understand the overall math is in Omaha's favor. I am cheering for a way to get both of them out and leave the NCHC with just the three. That might cause the world to spontaneously combust but I'm in! Would be a frosty discussion between Mike Gabinet and Mike Kemp I am sure. So with Kemp on the committee and the regional being in Loveland, it's probably the biggest question mark in this entire thing.

                              I have mentioned it a couple times but based on your rankings I wouldn't rule out BC and UMass to Albany as the 1/2 and then send the stronger #1 like Minnesota to Bridgeport with a "weaker" two seed in QU. It's not like they will be playing in front of a Bobcat home crowd and they would be flying to Loveland or Albany in this scenario.

                              I do agree with your top 12. I haven't done all the possibilities but based on upsets today is there a way that one of those current #3s gets knocked out? And if so, do you think the committee would knock a team out based more on merit/ability or based on what conference they are in and how many teams that conference will have in the field?
                              Being a Mn native with a kid playing at QU, I'd LOVE to see the Gophers in the Bridgeport regional. That would be so fun to see! You'd have 2 top goalies in the country, Tufto (Mn kiddo) 2nd in the nation in scoring going against Ranta and Metsa, (iron range blood) leading the nation in scoring for d at Q, fun stuff! Haters are going to say "compare the conferences". I say, nothing QU could do about their situation, put them on the ice and what will be will be..

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                              • https://twitter.com/Buccigross/statu...386405377?s=19

                                The women's FF is on ESPNU. The men's selection show is now an hour long. What is happening in this crazy world...

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