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  • J.D.
    replied
    They keep going by a flight is a flight though. I don't think they care how long of a flight it is. And the home team factor might even be a non factor with no fans. I think Bob Motzko would take the Bridgeport regional over the Loveland one you have.

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  • Fighting Sioux 23
    replied
    Originally posted by J.D. View Post
    Despite Denver's record, giving the nod to Omaha over them bothers me but I understand the overall math is in Omaha's favor. I am cheering for a way to get both of them out and leave the NCHC with just the three. That might cause the world to spontaneously combust but I'm in! Would be a frosty discussion between Mike Gabinet and Mike Kemp I am sure. So with Kemp on the committee and the regional being in Loveland, it's probably the biggest question mark in this entire thing.

    I have mentioned it a couple times but based on your rankings I wouldn't rule out BC and UMass to Albany as the 1/2 and then send the stronger #1 like Minnesota to Bridgeport with a "weaker" two seed in QU. It's not like they will be playing in front of a Bobcat home crowd and they would be flying to Loveland or Albany in this scenario.

    I do agree with your top 12. I haven't done all the possibilities but based on upsets today is there a way that one of those current #3s gets knocked out? And if so, do you think the committee would knock a team out based more on merit/ability or based on what conference they are in and how many teams that conference will have in the field?
    I think if there are any upsets today, Denver/Omaha are likely gone. I just think PC and Bemidji State have stronger arguments (and potentially even an AIC). Going a step further, if there are two or more upsets, then I think for sure Denver/Omaha are out of the mix.

    As for Minnesota to Bridgeport, the more I keep thinking about it, and the committee's emphasis on travel this year, I keep coming back to Minnesota going out to Loveland. It's (slightly) less travel than any of the eastern regionals, and could be seen as a "reward" for the Gophers. That being said, if we send BC to Albany (I agree, I would not rule that out either, but I think it is less likely), then the "punishment" for a western team going out east grows further, as the travel would be (again, slightly) further and they would potentially have to play a couple of "home" teams in Providence and Quinnipiac to get to the Frozen Four. It is a very interesting debate, but, as I said, the more I think about it, I think the Gophers are going to Loveland (which means they may be rooting hard for upsets to avoid Denver or Omaha in the first round).

    I really don't see many scenarios where one of the current #3s gets knocked out. Worst case scenario for these teams would be:

    Lowell upsets Massachusetts
    St. Lawrence upsets Quinnipiac
    Northern Michigan upsets LSSU
    Canisius upsets AIC

    Those teams would almost certainly be the four #4 seeds.

    So, who currently on the #4 line (PC, Bemidji, Denver/Omaha, AIC) would have a case to take out a team on the #3 line?

    I'll start with saying that I would be absolutely stunned, fall off my chair shocked if Minnesota Duluth or Michigan failed to make the tournament. So that leaves BU and LSSU.

    Providence probably doesn't get the nod over BU, and I struggle to think that the committee would take 5 Hockey East teams this year. So in this scenario, I think PC is probably done, and BU is probably safe.

    AIC also probably comes up short. I suppose an argument could be made to put in AIC over LSSU, but I would probably weigh that battle about 90/10 in favor of LSSU, but still a chance.

    Denver/Omaha, as has been explored at great length in this thread, simply don't deserve to be knocking out top 3 teams from top conferences, so BU is safe. I think LSSU is also probably safe, but if the committee got a hair up its behind and needed to have Denver in as a local team (which I really do not think will happen), then maybe they are in danger. In any event, I would probably weigh that battle at about 98/2 in favor of LSSU.

    Finally, and the biggest chance a current #3 seed (at least based on what we are all guessing) has to get knocked out would be Bemidji State. I think BU is probably safe here, but LSSU would have a decent argument up against it. Bemidji State went 2-1-1 against LSSU in the regular season (albeit with 1 OT win). The semifinal yesterday likely was the tiebreaker, but I think you could make an argument that Bemidji's record against Mankato (2-2-1) compared with LSSU's record against Mankato (0-2, getting outscored 9-2) could also serve as a quasi-tiebreaker. I still think LSSU would get the nod in this scenario, but I would probably weigh the battle about 70/30 in favor of LSSU.

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  • Bonin21
    replied
    Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
    Loveland:
    2. Minnesota v. 15. Omaha
    6. Wisconsin v. 9. Minnesota Duluth

    Does the committee "reward" them by keeping them out West? Or do they send them out to Albany? There is basically no difference travel wise between Minnesota and Minnesota State if we are presuming they are going to the Loveland/Albany regionals as #1 seeds. The more I think about it, the more I think it is likely that the Gophers wind up in Loveland.
    What you've proposed here is not a "reward" in any way. Flying to CO for an insane regional vs flying east for a weaker one? The reward would be east.

    Leave a comment:


  • J.D.
    replied
    Despite Denver's record, giving the nod to Omaha over them bothers me but I understand the overall math is in Omaha's favor. I am cheering for a way to get both of them out and leave the NCHC with just the three. That might cause the world to spontaneously combust but I'm in! Would be a frosty discussion between Mike Gabinet and Mike Kemp I am sure. So with Kemp on the committee and the regional being in Loveland, it's probably the biggest question mark in this entire thing.

    I have mentioned it a couple times but based on your rankings I wouldn't rule out BC and UMass to Albany as the 1/2 and then send the stronger #1 like Minnesota to Bridgeport with a "weaker" two seed in QU. It's not like they will be playing in front of a Bobcat home crowd and they would be flying to Loveland or Albany in this scenario.

    I do agree with your top 12. I haven't done all the possibilities but based on upsets today is there a way that one of those current #3s gets knocked out? And if so, do you think the committee would knock a team out based more on merit/ability or based on what conference they are in and how many teams that conference will have in the field?

    Leave a comment:


  • Fighting Sioux 23
    replied
    Here is where I think things roughly stand (again, with the committee) going into the last day of the conference tournaments, if things go chalk:

    1. North Dakota#!%
    2. Minnesota#!
    3. Boston College!
    4. Minnesota State Mankato!
    --------
    5. Massachusetts#*
    6. Wisconsin*
    7. Quinnipiac#*
    8. St. Cloud State*
    --------
    9. Minnesota Duluth*
    10. Lake Superior State#*
    11. Michigan*
    12. Boston University*
    --------
    13. Providence
    14. Bemidji State
    15. Omaha
    16. AIC#

    # = Clinched Conference's Auto-Bid (or clinches if brackets go chalk)
    ! = Lock for #1 Seed
    % = Lock for #1 Overall Seed
    * = Lock for NCAA Tournament (regardless of today's results)

    Potential brackets with this field...

    Bridgeport:
    3. Boston College v. 16. AIC
    7. Quinnipiac v. 12. Boston University

    Fargo:
    1. North Dakota v. 14. Bemidji State
    8. St. Cloud State v. 10. Lake Superior State

    Albany:
    4. Minnesota State v. 13. Providence
    5. Massachusetts v. 11. Michigan

    Loveland:
    2. Minnesota v. 15. Omaha
    6. Wisconsin v. 9. Minnesota Duluth

    I would also be perfectly fine with swapping the SCSU/LSSU and UW/UMD matches in their entirety.

    I also think it will be very interesting to see where Minnesota is placed. They are almost certainly the second #1 seed for western teams (if not #2 overall, as I have them). Does the committee "reward" them by keeping them out West? Or do they send them out to Albany? There is basically no difference travel wise between Minnesota and Minnesota State if we are presuming they are going to the Loveland/Albany regionals as #1 seeds. The more I think about it, the more I think it is likely that the Gophers wind up in Loveland.

    Leave a comment:


  • J.D.
    replied
    That's tough because I haven't seen AIC at all this year. And I know history isn't necessarily supposed to be a factor but we've seen them beat SCSU and Eric Lang is doing something special there. So when I look at their record, I don't think it would be crazy to take them over PC/Omaha in a year like this. The one thing you can point to as a negative is they got swept by Quinnipiac. That's not a terrible thing to say but it could ultimately play a role in evaluating them.

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  • Numbers
    replied
    Originally posted by J.D. View Post
    As of right now I would still have Bemidji in. Probably the 4 seed in Fargo. But they'll be sweating it out tomorrow for sure. If NMU wins, they take Bemidji's spot in Fargo.

    I think Canisius has a decent shot to knock off AIC. Good record, beat Army and played in what looks to be the tougher of the Atlantic divisions. If AIC loses that is what I am curious about. Until today they hadn't played since January and now they got a back to back situation against a team that has been playing. I do think there's a chance AIC gets an at large if they lose. And with that, FDF just had a heart attack.
    I'm agreeing with you about Bemidji and NMU. You can't make a reasonable argument for 4 WCHA teams over 4 B10s or such, so there will likely be only 3 WCHA teams in the field. LSSU seems like they need to be the 2nd. So, if NMU wins the title, Bemidji is out.

    I can't really imagine 5 HE teams in either, so if Lowell wins, then no Prov or Conn
    Past that, it gets really murky.....
    If St Lawrence wins, who is the next out? I doubt if it's Quinn. Might be the NCHC4 or the HEA4
    If Canisius wins, how would you rank AIC, Omaha and Providence?

    Big questions there....

    Leave a comment:


  • J.D.
    replied
    As of right now I would still have Bemidji in. Probably the 4 seed in Fargo. But they'll be sweating it out tomorrow for sure. If NMU wins, they take Bemidji's spot in Fargo.

    I think Canisius has a decent shot to knock off AIC. Good record, beat Army and played in what looks to be the tougher of the Atlantic divisions. If AIC loses that is what I am curious about. Until today they hadn't played since January and now they got a back to back situation against a team that has been playing. I do think there's a chance AIC gets an at large if they lose. And with that, FDF just had a heart attack.

    Leave a comment:


  • Numbers
    replied
    Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post

    The biggest problem with taking Mankato out of a #1 seed is who do you replace them with? UMASS?
    This is totally the question. There isn't any other good choice. Wisconsin might actually be the 4th best team. I don't envy the committee with this situation.

    Also, roughly, I am getting something like this, now:

    #1s: NoDak, Minn, BC, Mankato (in that order)
    #2s: Wisc, SCSU, Mass, Quinn (where the first 3 are roughly even to me, and QU is a distant #8 overall)
    #3s: BU, LSSU (have to have them ahead of BSU now, I think - although BSU has better results against Mankato), Mich, UMD
    #4s: AIC, HEA #4, WCHA #3 (NMU or BSU), NCHC #4 (DU or Omaha)

    And, I am stumbling against this question:
    Putting all teams with no flight into Fargo yields something like this:
    NoDak, Wisc or SCSU, UMD, NMU/BSU
    Now, I don't mind the Fighting Hawks playing NMU or BSU in round 1. That seems right (even though traditionally they would get AIC, maybe). What seems weird is the 2nd/3rd band game. They get either the strongest or 2nd strongest #2, and I would estimate also the strongest or 2nd strongest #3 (UMD). And, there doesn't seem a good way to change this.

    Also, this bracket requires Mankato go to Loveland, because the Loveland #1 gets Denver or Omaha, and surely one would seed those 2 teams stronger matchups than PC or UConn or AIC. Thus, I am guessing at this point that Minnesota goes to Albany.

    I think if I had to do a ranking right now, it would go:
    NoDak, Minn, BC, Mankato....
    Wisco, SCSU, Mass, Quinn....
    UMD, Mich, BU, LSSU
    DU/Omaha, AIC, HEA #4, BSU/NMU
    Last edited by Numbers; 03-19-2021, 11:59 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Fighting Sioux 23
    replied
    Originally posted by Numbers View Post
    I'm still looking for some discussion about whether MSUM might have cost themselves a #1, and what their loss does to the bracket. Also, Is BSU still in?
    The biggest problem with taking Mankato out of a #1 seed is who do you replace them with? UMASS?

    Leave a comment:


  • Numbers
    replied
    I'm still looking for some discussion about whether MSUM might have cost themselves a #1, and what their loss does to the bracket. Also, Is BSU still in?

    Leave a comment:


  • FredsDeadFriend
    replied
    Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post

    It is. JDUBBS got banned I think, and so he came back as Fred. I would recommend putting them both on ignore...unless you like arguing with crazy.

    On a relevant note, Northern Michigan is approximately 497 miles from Fargo.
    Damn you people are simple minded. Proof you are very unintelligent. If you can't tell the differnence between me and JDubbs or me and pokechecker, you are total MORONS, lol.

    All I'd have to do is delve into the world of religion to differentiate myself from anyone else you might compare me to, but this is a COLLEGE HOCKEY forum, right? So I'd prefer to avoid doing that. Sticking to just sports, I don't know, did JDubbs ever talk about 1902 natl bb titles the Gophers won? JDubb was only a hockey fan, from what I can remember? And I was here at the same time as JDubb? How does that work? I could probably go on for hours listing the differences between me and JDubb, but you are all nutjob liberals who believe only what you want to believe, so it is impossible for me to prove I am not JDubb, since you have determined I must be he, lol. LOSERS!!!

    Leave a comment:


  • Fighting Sioux 23
    replied
    Originally posted by J.D. View Post
    This has to be that dude JDUBBS? I can't remember if that was the exact name.
    It is. JDUBBS got banned I think, and so he came back as Fred. I would recommend putting them both on ignore...unless you like arguing with crazy.

    On a relevant note, Northern Michigan is approximately 497 miles from Fargo.

    Leave a comment:


  • FredsDeadFriend
    replied
    Originally posted by J.D. View Post
    This has to be that dude JDUBBS? I can't remember if that was the exact name.
    No, I am not JDubbs, but you are not the first to make that idiotic assumption. I am also not pokechecker, I am fredsdeadfriend, always have been, always will be. I've had other monikers, but never tried to deceive anyone as to who I am. I'm Killmenow at Gopherhole, I have been UMnBack2BackU before, and other monikers, but NEVER ONCE have I been more than one moniker at a time, and never once have I denied being who I was in the past. I get online infrequently, hence forget passwords, so I change monikers, but never on purpose. Not sure why everyone assumes I have to be someone else? I have a very distinct posting pattern, shouldn't be so hard to figure out, but many of you are idiots, so there is that, lol.

    Leave a comment:


  • SCSU BlackandRed
    replied
    Oh we have every right, even more so, you clown, because we aren’t bandwagon fans that live in the past and can give credit where it’s due.

    I do support the hockey culture in our state and I know it isn’t tied to one school. Based on your primitive takes, I won’t even assume you graduated from that university. And I won’t rip on it because I know a good number of people who did who are capable of cognitive reasoning unlike yourself.

    Nothing you listed in your long line of incoherent rants matters but for what it is worth, SCSU has had multiple Olympians. Still striving for a National title but enjoy our old coach who couldn’t get it done. Not likely to change btw but the guy behind our bench has been a part of getting it done recently. I like our chances with that guy a lot better.

    Leave a comment:

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