NCAA Tourney Team Selection Options

[Fishman'81]

Without delving into the details, doesn't this Covid season reveal how fundamentally stupid the AQ system is..?

[J.D.]

On a sidenote, it sure looks to me like the formation of the NCHC and Big Ten has actually been good for college hockey. The current WCHA is a solid league and in recent years we have seen historical programs like Michigan Tech, Bowling Green and now LSSU all return to the NCAA tournament. Now I will duck and cover as I am sure many disagree...

[MagnessMan]

I think the committee has some really tough choices for the last at large spot. End of the day you can float all the theories you want but it will be subjective and leave three programs upset. I’m not concerned about the whole QU discussion. Their track record historically is abysmal. Whoever they draw will devour them. Sioux should get the Saints which is a bye.

[J.D.]

Listening to the CHN podcast now, they have:

1s: UND, Minnesota, BC, UMass
2s: Mankato, Wisconsin, SCSU

Beyond that it's a cluster for them lol. Wodon had QU as a 2 but with the loss to SLU, dropped them to a 3. But they don't have a clear replacement as a 2 seed.

[SJHovey]

U

My humble opinion...

1. North Dakota#
2. Minnesota#
3. Boston College@
4. Minnesota State Mankato@
--------
5. Massachusetts#
6. Wisconsin@
7. St. Cloud State@
8. Minnesota Duluth@
--------
9. Lake Superior State#
10. Michigan@
11. Boston University@
12. Quinnipiac@
--------
13. Providence@
14. Bemidji State@
15. AIC#
16. St. Lawrence#

# = Clinched Conference's Auto-Bid
@ = At-Large Bid

My Bracket...

Bridgeport:
3. Boston College v. 15. AIC
6. Wisconsin v. 11. Boston University

Fargo:
1. North Dakota v. 14. Bemidji State
8. Minnesota Duluth v. 9. Lake Superior State

Albany:
4. Minnesota State v. 13. Providence
5. Massachusetts v. 12. Quinnipiac

Loveland:
2. Minnesota v. 16. St. Lawrence
7. St. Cloud State v. 10. Michigan

If the committee is willing to move Bemidji State to a flight instead of a bus trip (which I think is highly unlikely), we could have a perfect serpentine (Bemidji to play BC, St. Lawrence to play UND, and AIC to play UMN). At the very least, we get 1/8, 2/7, 3/6, 4/5 potential regional finals.

Obviously, when the committee releases the brackets, we won't know exact seeding, but we will know the ranking of the #1 seeds.

This has been a fun thread, particularly during this unique year. To those that have thoughtfully engaged, I have truly enjoyed your posts and opinions. Thank you.

It would be nice if there was some bracket integrity as you suggest, but I don’t have a lot of faith.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

My humble opinion...

1. North Dakota#
2. Minnesota#
3. Boston College@
4. Minnesota State Mankato@
--------
5. Massachusetts#
6. Wisconsin@
7. St. Cloud State@
8. Minnesota Duluth@
--------
9. Lake Superior State#
10. Michigan@
11. Boston University@
12. Quinnipiac@
--------
13. Providence@
14. Bemidji State@
15. AIC#
16. St. Lawrence#

# = Clinched Conference's Auto-Bid
@ = At-Large Bid

My Bracket...

Bridgeport:
3. Boston College v. 15. AIC
6. Wisconsin v. 11. Boston University

Fargo:
1. North Dakota v. 14. Bemidji State
8. Minnesota Duluth v. 9. Lake Superior State

Albany:
4. Minnesota State v. 13. Providence
5. Massachusetts v. 12. Quinnipiac

Loveland:
2. Minnesota v. 16. St. Lawrence
7. St. Cloud State v. 10. Michigan

If the committee is willing to move Bemidji State to a flight instead of a bus trip (which I think is highly unlikely), we could have a perfect serpentine (Bemidji to play BC, St. Lawrence to play UND, and AIC to play UMN). At the very least, we get 1/8, 2/7, 3/6, 4/5 potential regional finals.

Obviously, when the committee releases the brackets, we won't know exact seeding, but we will know the ranking of the #1 seeds.

This has been a fun thread, particularly during this unique year. To those that have thoughtfully engaged, I have truly enjoyed your posts and opinions. Thank you.

[SJHovey]

In Wodonworld, Loveland is Minnesota, SCSU, LSSU, DU/Omaha.

[SJHovey]

Listening to CHN podcast. Wodon thinks UMass and BC will be #1 seeds. Fargo will be UND, Mankato, UMD, BSU.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

While I might not agree with it, probably easier for the committee to take QU rather than try to decide between Denver and Omaha.

Yeah, as has been stated over and over, this is a weird and crazy year for the committee.

I do think a lot of people are discounting Quinnipiac though...particularly when trying to use recent history to support it. The Bobcats are probably one of the top 8-10 programs in college hockey over the last 7-8 seasons. They've made 5 trips to the NCAA Tournament in that time frame, going 7-5 in those tournaments, advancing to the National Championship game twice. They went to the Regional Final in 2019, and were a bubble NCAA team last season, finishing 14th in the Pairwise before the season ended.

I get it. We don't like that the ECAC only had 4 teams play this season and they shouldn't get 2 NCAA bids. However, QU won about 2/3s of its games, and lost in overtime in its conference championship game (to a team it had beaten 4 times this year). I guess I'll sum up my thoughts, which I think are similar to yours: The ECAC doesn't deserve 2 bids in the NCAA Tournament this season, but QU probably deserves to be in the tournament.

[bcmsu9196]

QU will probably get in. AIC is in, and will likely be the only Atlantic school to get in.

[J.D.]

While I might not agree with it, probably easier for the committee to take QU rather than try to decide between Denver and Omaha.

[Numbers]

To make my thoughts more clear about the #2 and #3 situation...

Given QU's resume, (with apologies to FS23, I haven't watched anyone. I'm going by the history of the conferences. But, there really hasn't been a year in which historical precedent of conferences was way off), I am sure they are not a 2, and not even a high 3. I think, therefore, that UMD and Michigan are the low 2, and the high 3. Therefore, the first round game should be UMD v Mich. Just hang on to that.

Now, some more comparing....
QU is 7-2 non-conf. As stated earlier, the wins are against Sacred Heart (2), Holy Cross (2), AIC (2), and Long Island (1). The losses were against Bowling Green (2).
I submit that this is not much better a resume than AIC (should they lose their final), or the next 2 highest AHA teams in the standings. The fact that they were 7-0 (no losses) suggests some consistency, and they deserve some credit for that. The 2 losses to Bowling Green are not high points in the resume, however.

And, therefore, I think's a completely fine idea to drop them below the level of LSSU, and perhaps even BSU (after all, 2 losses to a team in BGSU which I feel is not as strong as either BSU or LSSU).

So, With all that said, I would rank the teams as such:
NoDak, Minn, BC, MSUM, Wisc, Mass, SCSU, Mich....
UMD, LSSU, BU, Prov, BSU, AIC(auto), StL(auto) and the last team in is either Denver, Omaha or QU.

I would not want to be the committee trying to evaluate the group of Prov, BSU, Denver, Omaha and QU.
Nor would I want to try to parse out the Wisc, Mass and SCSU situation. And, that does make a difference because of how you bracket.
I also think that LSSU and BU are a bit difficult, although if the Lakers win tonight, I think that makes it easier.

[bigus]

You figure those four teams, with collectively somewhere between 75 and a 100 years of division I play and three total ncaa tournament appearances (all autobids) suddenly woke up good?

Some people are highly suspicious of Bayesian statistics.

[SJHovey]

Again, we just don't know how impressive those wins were. Traditionally, I would agree. This year? Who knows.

You figure those four teams, with collectively somewhere between 75 and a 100 years of division I play and three total ncaa tournament appearances (all autobids) suddenly woke up good?

[captain beefheart]

That's fair. The problem is, the NCAA had previously allowed a 4-team conference award its autobid to the conference tournament champion. Are you suggesting that once Clarkson called it quits, the ECAC autobid should have gone to QU?

It's a weird, messed up year. I'm not sure there was a clear solution.

I do think QU has now slipped to a #3 seed. So, is it Duluth or Michigan that gets bumped up to a #2?

Good question. Nacho is better than the Big, but not by as much as previous years. It's a toss up methinks.