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  • #16
    Originally posted by SJHovey View Post

    It wouldn't shock me if they shrunk the field in light of both the reduced number of teams playing and the fact that Manchester bowed out as a regional host. It'll probably be easier to dump one of the three remaining cities as a host rather than find a replacement for Manchester.

    However, keeping it at 16 teams does give the committee some cover. They can give two bids to each conference, which should stop the squealing from the AHA, ECAC and WCHA, and still have four bids to give to at-large teams from the more traditional power conferences. I still think that's the way they'll go, although making it two eight team regionals wouldn't surprise me.
    The B1G is traditional? They haven't been around 10 years yet! :-D ;-)
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    • #17
      Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post

      The B1G is traditional? They haven't been around 10 years yet! :-D ;-)
      Yeah, "traditional" probably wasn't the best choice for a description. My intent was to refer to those conferences that have more frequently placed multiple teams in the tournament, and are playing with a full conference this year.
      That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post

        Modified Colorado College Rule, applicable to Hockey East, B1G, NCHC, and WCHA. 1 Auto-bid for AHA and ECAC.

        Put in place criteria for the remaining 6 selections, including: (1) the team must be over .500; (2a) for teams in conferences, the team must be in the top-half of the conference (regular season) or have advanced to the conference's tournament championship game; (2b) for Independents, the team must have at least 1 win over a top-half CC Rule conference team; and (3) no more than 2 additional teams from any one conference. This should bring the total teams in consideration for the remaining 6 selections down to approximately 13-15 teams. The smoke-filled room takes it from there, but at least there are specific criteria in place heading into the selection.
        If this selection criteria were utilized, the eligible field for at-large selection would largely be narrowed down to the following (teams that do not currently meet the criteria, but still could, noted in italics):

        AHA:
        AIC
        Robert Morris
        Army
        Canisius
        RIT
        Sacred Heart
        Mercyhurst


        B1G:
        Minnesota*
        Wisconsin
        Michigan
        Notre Dame
        Penn State


        ECAC:
        Quinnipiac
        Clarkson
        St. Lawrence
        Colgate


        Hockey East:
        Boston College*
        Boston University
        Massachusetts
        Northeastern
        Providence
        Connecticut
        Massachusetts Lowell


        NCHC:
        SCSU
        Minnesota Duluth
        Nebraska Omaha

        WCHA:
        Minnesota State*
        LSSU
        Bowling Green
        Northern Michigan
        Bemidji State
        Michigan Tech


        Auto Bids:
        AHA Tournament Champion
        B1G Tournament Champion
        B1G Regular Season Champion
        ECAC Tournament Champion
        Hockey East Tournament Champion
        Hockey East Regular Season Champion
        NCHC Tournament Champion
        North Dakota (NCHC Regular Season Champion)
        WCHA Tournament Champion
        WCHA Regular Season Champion

        Would Need Tournament Auto Bid: (Alphabetical)
        Air Force
        Alabama Huntsville
        Bentley
        Colorado College
        Denver
        Ferris State
        Holy Cross
        Maine
        Merrimack
        Miami
        Michigan State
        New Hampshire
        Niagara
        Ohio State
        Vermont
        Western Michigan

        Eliminated
        Arizona State
        Long Island

        *Currently in line for conference's Regular Season Champion Auto Bid
        Last edited by Fighting Sioux 23; 02-21-2021, 09:01 AM.
        North Dakota
        National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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        • #19
          I think Mike Kemp said they approached the NCAA about a certain # of slots per conference and the NCAA shot that "multiple auto bid" approach down. They are still going to use RPI or whatever to evaluate teams within a conference because of the unbalanced schedules and not all teams playing same number of games etc. At the same time the committee will be using eye test and whether they want to admit it or not "historical evidence" to select the at large field.

          They also approached Pittsburgh about hosting the entire 16 team tournament there but that was deemed not to be feasible so that is why they are sticking with 4 regional format provided local authorities allow it. At this point with people getting vaccinated and cases dropping in a lot of places, I would think it's a go. As far as I know an official replacement for Manchester has not been named but I thought they said that was being finalized.

          They also said the NCAA told them to try and limit travel even more than usual but with one of the regionals being in Loveland with Denver not being in contention, that is going to be interesting. As things stand now, you would think the best options for Loveland are teams like Minnesota, Wisconsin, St. Cloud, Duluth, Minnesota State. So do you flood the Loveland and Fargo regionals with those teams or does the fact everyone would be flying to Loveland anyway change that approach?
          Last edited by J.D.; 02-21-2021, 11:44 AM.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by J.D. View Post
            I think Mike Kemp said they approached the NCAA about a certain # of slots per conference and the NCAA shot that "multiple auto bid" approach down. They are still going to use RPI or whatever to evaluate teams within a conference because of the unbalanced schedules and not all teams playing same number of games etc. At the same time the committee will be using eye test and whether they want to admit it or not "historical evidence" to select the at large field.
            Yeah, I heard that as well about the multiple auto bids per conference. That being said, I have to imagine that de facto the Modified CC Rule will work, as the Regular Season Champions in the B1G, Hockey East, NCHC, and WCHA will almost certainly get in (likely because the likely winners are all Top-5 or -6 teams at the moment). I think Quinnipiac is likely a lock at this point as well, so really it would be applicable to the ECAC as well. Now, the "downside" to not having multiple auto bids/adopting the Modified CC Rule is if the Regular Season Champion also wins the Conference Tournament title, then your conference could potentially be limited a spot. For example, if Minnesota State captures both the regular season and tournament titles, it could mean a team like Bemidji State or Bowling Green fails to get the nod.

            As for using PWR/RPI/KRACH to evaluate teams within a conference, it makes sense. However, as you noted, then they will have to use some sort of historical evidence to pick teams. For example, AIC is currently ranked 7th in PWR, while Minnesota Duluth is ranked 21st. Fair or not, there is no way that the Yellowjackets get picked over the Bulldogs for an at-large spot. We all have to accept that there will be a lot of subjectivity in this year's selection. What I like about using the Modified CC Rule is instead of using that subjectivity to dole out 10 at-large bids, it would only be used for 6 at-large spots. Personally, I would be okay with the Modified CC Rule + 1 at-large per conference based on RPI/KRACH.

            Originally posted by JD
            They also approached Pittsburgh about hosting the entire 16 team tournament there but that was deemed not to be feasible so that is why they are sticking with 4 regional format provided local authorities allow it. At this point with people getting vaccinated and cases dropping in a lot of places, I would think it's a go. As far as I know an official replacement for Manchester has not been named but I thought they said that was being finalized.
            Yeah, I thought it was supposed to get announced this past week (or at least that is how it sounded from the interview).

            Originally posted by JD
            They also said the NCAA told them to try and limit travel even more than usual but with one of the regionals being in Loveland with Denver not being in contention, that is going to be interesting. As things stand now, you would think the best options for Loveland are teams like Minnesota, Wisconsin, St. Cloud, Duluth, Minnesota State. So do you flood the Loveland and Fargo regionals with those teams or does the fact everyone would be flying to Loveland anyway change that approach?
            I have to imagine they will use some form of the "a flight is a flight" logic. It appears that North Dakota, Minnesota, Minnesota State, Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, and one of Minnesota Duluth, Omaha, or Bemidji State are likely to make the NCAA Tournament. They are all roughly within driving distance of Fargo, and while North Dakota might wind up being the #1 overall seed and would normally get "protected," I think we will see that playing out a lot different this year. I would guess that 3-4 of those 6-7 teams above would get placed in Fargo, and they would shift around seeding to make it work.

            As for Loveland, it doesn't look promising for any of the "local" teams. I'm guessing we wind up with the leftovers from the Fargo Regional teams noted above, along with a Michigan, Michigan Tech, Bowling Green, and/or LSSU...who likely would all be flights if they make the tournament (obviously, depending on the location of the 4th regional). It looks like most of the potential eastern teams that make it will almost certainly be within rough driving distance of the regionals, so I would guess that all the eastern teams that make it will be out east. Using the CHN Power 16 (the teams, not necessarily the rankings) from this last week as an example, I would guess at the regionals looking something like this:

            Fargo:
            1. North Dakota v. 4. Bowling Green
            2. Minnesota State v. 3. St. Cloud State

            Three teams within driving distance, and avoids intra-conference matchups.

            Loveland:
            1. Minnesota v. 4. Nebraska Omaha
            2. Michigan v. 3. Minnesota Duluth

            All are flights, and avoids intra-conference matchups.

            TBD East Regional (assuming somewhere near Boston):
            1. Boston College v. 4. AIC
            2. Boston University v. 3. Clarkson

            All within driving distance.

            Bridgeport:
            1. Wisconsin v. 4. Connecticut
            2. Quinnipiac v. 3. Massachusetts

            Three teams within driving distance, and Wisconsin is a flight anywhere but Fargo, which was full.

            I don't like it, but I think this is fairly close to the logic they would employ, which is essentially: (1) No intra-conference matchups; (2) get teams to regionals as close as possible; and (3) keep teams as close as possible to their true seeding, but able to flex around as necessary.
            North Dakota
            National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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            • #21
              Good work. You really think Clarkson gets in or are you projecting them to win ECAC? With only 4 teams, I can only see Clarkson in if they win tournament. Granted they are 2-2-2 against Quinnipiac but not so great outside of that.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by J.D. View Post
                Good work. You really think Clarkson gets in or are you projecting them to win ECAC? With only 4 teams, I can only see Clarkson in if they win tournament. Granted they are 2-2-2 against Quinnipiac but not so great outside of that.
                I was just using CHN's "Power 16." They had Clarkson in at 15.

                FWIW, I have not watched a single college game outside of the NCHC this season, with the exception of about half of the Michigan-Wisconsin game the other weekend. I have no real idea how strong/weak any of the teams outside the NCHC are this year.
                North Dakota
                National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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                • #23
                  Which begs the question, how much are the committee members really watching in order to compare teams across conferences? In this one odd year, falling back on historical data is a legitimate way of doing things.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by J.D. View Post
                    Which begs the question, how much are the committee members really watching in order to compare teams across conferences? In this one odd year, falling back on historical data is a legitimate way of doing things.
                    I would hope the committee members take it seriously and watch at least a certain number of games from the teams in contention. Instead, I fear there will be a lot of "AIC might have been 17-4, but they lost to Canisius! They would have been 4-17 in a real conference." or "Yeah Denver was 12-12-1, but they had to go through a gauntlet this season and but for running into the absolute juggernaut that is North Dakota in the NCHC Tournament Championship game and getting slaughtered by 10, they likely would have won the NCHC's auto-bid." : - )

                    I get it. We are spoiled in college hockey with a normal objective(-ish?) way to select our NCAA Tournament qualifiers. That is gone this year, so we are all looking for other pieces of objective criteria to select the teams this year. Historical data (to some extent) is a fair and objective tool to use; however, it can be subjectively manipulated. For example, if we go back to 1987-1988, you could argue LSSU is a top 3-5 program in college hockey. If we go back only to 2017-2018, North Dakota has never made the NCAA Tournament. The same can be said for conferences. Historically, the WCHA is the best college hockey conference in history. The last 6-8 years? Not so much.

                    Personally, the more I think about it, I would prefer the Modified CC Rule + 1 at large from each conference based on Pairwise/RPI/KRACH. Yeah, Atlantic Hockey and the 4-team ECAC get two teams in, and probably a legitimate title contender from Hockey East, B1G, WCHA, and/or NCHC gets left home, but it is a decent blend of pure objective data (winning conference hardware) with historical data (limiting Atlantic Hockey to 1 auto-bid along with the 4-team ECAC). Of course, I say this after my team has clinched one of those auto-bids...so please take my opinion with a grain (bucket?) of salt. : - )
                    North Dakota
                    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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                    • #25
                      Mike Kemp was on another podcast and revealed Albany as Manchester replacement. He also said with the Colorado schools not currently in the mix for a tournament spot, they have more flexibility with the flight is a flight theory. He indicated there could be a lot more bracket integrity than you would think given the NCAA said to limit travel. Now of course, bracket integrity is still not as clear since the PWR isn't being used. But still, doesn't seem like it will be all western teams in west and all eastern teams in east.

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                      • #26
                        Ok, might as well have called the post/suggestion from the Tech guy "Hey, Let's Screw the NCHC, Big Ten and HE Because They Hurt Our Feelings NCAA Tournament Plan."

                        In no logical universe (or illogical as is the world we currently live in) does the AHA deserve 3 NCAA bids in Men's D1 hockey. Historical performance shouldn't drive exact allocations/bids but it should inform decisions this year. Conferences don't go from strong to weak or the reverse in this sport. I'm not saying allocate spots exactly as they have played out in the past but that should be a guide as to who gets in. At the same time, don't excessively reward historically strong conferences (I do think the NCHC is down a little this year, I've watched a good amount).And bids should be determined and reward teams for their play over the course of the season with the exception being auto-bids given to conference tourney champs. And the whole "fair" allocation using a percentage of your total schools in a conference is absolute garbage. That is some participation ribbon BS right there.

                        Pairwise is absolute garbage this year but I think it is definitely showing the value of itself in normal years. Can't wait to have that back. I do like Fighting Sioux 23's reference/reliance on the Modified CC rules. All pretty good requirements in a year like this one. I'd add one more, requirement of 20 games played by regular season/conference championships are concluded. Playing less games is an advantage when you get into the tourney, lots less wear and tear on the players. Teams that found a way to keep themselves clear of the virus and complete almost a normal season should be rewarded. But I'll digress on that as the NCAA picked 13 as the number and most teams will meet that criteria.

                        So with all that said, this is who I'd put in the tourney as of right now based on regular season records also factoring in performance against top teams in their respective leagues:

                        AHA (Surprise! Potentially two here in spite of what I said above)
                        AIC - they deserve to be in regardless of winning their conference tournament
                        Army or Robert Morris (if either wins the conference tournament, neither if they don't)

                        Big 10 (we've got an issue if one of these three doesn't win the conference tourney)
                        Minnesota
                        Wisconsin
                        Michigan

                        ECAC
                        Quinnippiac
                        Clarkson

                        Hockey East
                        BC
                        BU (really don't like this one based on total games played, but they qualify per the NCAA and they have had some really good wins)
                        UMass

                        NCHC
                        UND
                        SCSU, UMD or UNO (pick two of three - whoever finishes higher and also factor in conference tourney performance)

                        WCHA
                        Minnesota State (Mankato)
                        Bowling Green, Lake Superior, Bemidji or Michigan Tech (pick two of three - same criteria as NCHC, a lot is going to change with these teams in the coming weeks)

                        Leaves one spot open. Probably going to see an upset somewhere in a conference tourney, so that somewhat allows for that. Or if there isn't, can pick from the just missed list of the NCHC and WCHA and probably bring in Providence or Northeastern into the discussion.

                        Going to be some teams upset with the committee's decisions. But as things stand right now, the field above looks pretty good to me.

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                        • #27
                          I think the fringe at large teams could just come down to conference tournament performance. That's almost an extension of the NCAA tournament if they were to go that route.

                          I see you mentioned Clarkson but are you putting them in based on their performance or just to give the ECAC another slot? Not sure they deserve two bids with a 4 team league and Clarkson not really lighting the world on fire.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by J.D. View Post
                            I think the fringe at large teams could just come down to conference tournament performance. That's almost an extension of the NCAA tournament if they were to go that route.

                            I see you mentioned Clarkson but are you putting them in based on their performance or just to give the ECAC another slot? Not sure they deserve two bids with a 4 team league and Clarkson not really lighting the world on fire.
                            I don't think Clarkson gets in unless they win their tournament.

                            I agree that a lot is going to come down to the conference tournaments. In the AHA, WCHA and ECAC, if the best teams win the tournament, I don't think you'll see many at-large teams from the three conferences, with the exception of the WCHA. It's possible, depending upon the finish of the season and the tournament, that we could see as many as three WCHA teams, although my bet would probably be on two right now.

                            You have to figure Minnesota is a lock, and Wisconsin almost a lock out of the B1G. Michigan seems to be on the right side of the bubble, depending upon their finish, but upsets from teams like Notre Dame, Clarkson or in the AHA might doom them.

                            The top four in the NCHC seem like a pretty solid bet, although I'd only lock in SCSU and UND right now. But again, I could see UMD or Omaha getting bounced if they finish in a "meh" fashion and there are upsets elsewhere.

                            HE is a mystery to me. It seems like BC and BU have to be locks, with UMass also a pretty solid bet. I think they'll get another team, but I have no idea which team it will be, and depending upon upsets elsewhere, that might change.

                            My personal opinion is that, by selection Sunday, there will probably be about 12 or 13 teams that "most" hockey observers will agree should be in, but the trick will be the last 3-4 teams, and seeding.
                            That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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                            • #29
                              If you don't mind.....(btw, where is Ticapnews?)...

                              I think the following are locks:
                              AHA: AIC
                              B10: Minnesota, Wisconsin
                              ECAC: Quinnipiac
                              HE: BC, BU
                              WCHA: MSU-M
                              NCHC: UND

                              Then, it seems to me that the following tiers of choices would be in play (somewhat subjective, because this isn't entirely by record, and I am going to give NCHC a lot of credit here):

                              Tier 1: SCSU, Michigan
                              Tier 2: UMD, Massachusetts, UNO (although UNO would be at the bottom of this list)
                              Tier 3: Northeastern
                              Tier 4: Providence, Clarkson, Bemidji, Bowling Green, Army

                              I'd be pretty sure the entire field will come from among these.

                              In the usual way we talk about, I suppose that Bemidji and Bowling Green, and for sure Army are going to have a hard time arguing their case without a Tournament Championship.

                              As for the bracket....A lot depends on how highly the committee eventually values BU. At present, the #1s would obviously be BC, UND, Minnesota and ??? (Although this could change). BU and UW would be the potential 4th #1, imo.

                              Since there is some kind of suggestion to limit travel, I would guess that you will see very little travel cross country, so I'd expect something like this:
                              Loveland: Minnesota, NCHC #2, Wisconsin, NCHC #4(?)
                              Fargo: NoDak, Mankato, NCHC #3, Michigan...with preference to St Cloud and Duluth for this regional.

                              Albany: BU, UMass, Clarkson (?), Providence (?)
                              Bridgeport: BC, Quinnipiac, Northeastern, AIC with a possibility of a 2nd WCHA team ending up in an eastern region.

                              Of course, this is highly dependent on tourneys. Let's just say that BG or BSU wins the WCHA. And, that someone besides AIC wins the AHA....then you have a more difficult situation.....You would start thinking like this:
                              Eastern teams: BC, BU, QU, AIC, AHA Champ, UMass....???
                              Western teams: UM, UW, UND, MSU-M, WCHA Champ.....???
                              And, in the West, it's pretty easy to pencil in 2 or 3 more NCHC teams, plus Michigan. And, again, you end up with, likely, some Western team flying to Albany.

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                              • #30
                                Mike Kemp said the flight is a flight theory is in play here. So with that it will be very difficult to predict a bracket. He said even if cross country it doesn't matter if it's a non stop flight (paraphrasing).

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