NCAA Tourney Team Selection Options

[Dan]

Denver is 10-13-1 and hasn't beaten a team not named CC or UNO since Jan. 17 - and I say that as a Pioneer season ticket holder the last four years. I'm not a fan, but I'll always root for them if they're not playing Miami or UNH. Still, the reality of their wins this season...

3 - Colorado College
3 - Omaha
2 - North Dakota
1 - Miami
1 - Western Michigan
0 - Minnesota Duluth
0 - St. Cloud

They wouldn't be in tournament conversation if their jerseys didn't say 'Denver' on them. I'm not sure why they even deserve to get in over Omaha - The Mavericks beat DU twice, UND twice, WMU twice, SCSU once and tied UMD as part of their 14-10-1 season ledger. Both teams fattened up on CC (although Denver also lost once to CC) and split with Miami...

Denver has proven little this season, other than they get up for North Dakota...

[Fighting Sioux 23]

I think I am right with you on this, as you can see. However, I have a hard time seeing Army as a possibility for an at-large. I would see AIC as a possibility for an at-large, but not Army.

You are probably right. My thought process for keeping Army in the bubble/at-large section is this: Conference Tournaments go chalk, with Army losing to AIC in the Atlantic Hockey title game, and the committee wanting to have a more balanced East/West field. There just aren't that many eastern teams this year with a decent record, particularly a military school that is 12-0-1 in their last 13 games (and would be 13-1-1 in their last 15 in my scenario).

Again, you are probably right, and they almost certainly would have to win the Atlantic Hockey tournament to get in...but I just can't get myself to bump them down to "must win conference tourney" status just yet.

[J.D.]

Denver did dip below Omaha in KRACH with this loss but that would be a weird punishment if that was the deciding factor. They went 3-2 against Omaha including a deciding 5th game if you will in conference tournament on neutral ice. I just think historical data enters the equation. The bids have to come from somewhere and I don't think it should go to a Bowling Green just because they have a better record.

[J.D.]

But as I keep saying I will not be crying for any of these bubble teams if they are left out. Denver will have no complaints if they are left out at 10-13-1.

[BCeagle]

I just use the eye test and there is no way 4 or 5 teams from HE deserve to be in. 3 is a gift. I'd take 3 from the B1g, I think Mankato is the equal of any of the B1g teams, I don't think the NCHC is as good recent years even though ND is . 2 at most for AH and 1 for ECAC, though if Clarkson wins a lot here a the end you might put them in.

I would say BC and UMass are definite and the 3rd spot between BU, PC, or UML but keep in mind BU only played about half their games plus winning pct. and BU got knocked out in HE Tournament by UML

[jjmc85]

If Denver gets in I think UConn should get in. Hockey East and NCHC each have the same number of bids on average since realignment. UConn finished under .500 but the beat BC in regulation so there’s that. I know they lost 3 regulation games UMass and BC and also lost in OT to BU and BC but all those teams are basically locks so losing close to them are basically wins, right? Also they beat both UMass and BC in the shootout so there you go. If we’re giving credit to Denver for losing to good teams in a historically good conference, gotta give credit to UConn for doing the same thing.

[jjmc85]

Apparently I am also unable to use the emoticons on this board now but hopefully the point comes across without them...

[BCeagle]

If Denver gets in I think UConn should get in. Hockey East and NCHC each have the same number of bids on average since realignment. UConn finished under .500 but the beat BC in regulation so there’s that. I know they lost 3 regulation games UMass and BC and also lost in OT to BU and BC but all those teams are basically locks so losing close to them are basically wins, right? Also they beat both UMass and BC in the shootout so there you go. If we’re giving credit to Denver for losing to good teams in a historically good conference, gotta give credit to UConn for doing the same thing.

True but I believe when UConn beat BC, BC at that time were missing key players to the world juniors games

[J.D.]

UConn is ahead of PC in KRACH but that game the other day had to leave a mark. It's easy for me. If Providence beats UMass, they are in. If PC loses I still think they would be taken as the next HE team if it came to that. Maybe the committee says the hell with the mediocre W/L bubble teams and gives the WCHA 4 and AHA 2. But when the tournament was kept at 16 teams this year, they opened the door for this conversation between .500 "power" teams against inflated "lesser" teams.

[jjmc85]

Alternatively if we’re gonna consider historical data, let’s do it. Can someone calculate the pairwise comprising of all the results of 2019-2020 and 2020-2021? Just go by that. Maybe Cornell will make the tournament this year without playing a regular season game.

[manurespreader]

Here's something to think about. BG started the year on fire, played super well and beat teams both in and out of the league. then at the end, kind of fizzled but they do have some quality wins. Similarly, BU started the year on fire and fizzled at the end but with some quality wins. Yet we are dismissing BG and we are saying BU is in. ?... Maybe BU ought not to be in.

[J.D.]

So Hockey East should get two teams in and the WCHA should get four? OK.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Here's something to think about. BG started the year on fire, played super well and beat teams both in and out of the league. then at the end, kind of fizzled but they do have some quality wins. Similarly, BU started the year on fire and fizzled at the end but with some quality wins. Yet we are dismissing BG and we are saying BU is in. ?... Maybe BU ought not to be in.

This is a fair point, and I think the comparison between BU and BGSU is very close. However, the biggest reasons why I think the committee considers BU a lock and BGSU is not is because (in no particular order):

(1) BU is an eastern team, and I just can't see the committee leaving BU out and putting BGSU in when there is a dearth of eastern teams in contention for the tournament as is.
(2) BU is a Hockey East team, and it is probably fair that, at minimum (fair or not), 3 HE teams will get in, and BU probably has the third best resume in Hockey East this season.
(3) BGSU is a WCHA team, and it is probably fair that, at maximum (fair or not), 3 WCHA teams will get in, and BGSU probably has the fourth best resume in WCHA this season.
(4) BU lost only 4 games...albeit in a drastically shortened season, with "quality" in-conference wins over BC and PC.
(5) BGSU lost 10 games...albeit playing almost a full season. However, BGSU went 1-7 against the WCHA's top 3.

Sigh...this is why I miss having objective criteria determine our field.

That being said, I do believe that when the tournament field is announced, there will be a big surprise or two getting in that will leave those of us trying to predict this thing scratching our heads.

[Numbers]

This is a fair point, and I think the comparison between BU and BGSU is very close. However, the biggest reasons why I think the committee considers BU a lock and BGSU is not is because (in no particular order):

(1) BU is an eastern team, and I just can't see the committee leaving BU out and putting BGSU in when there is a dearth of eastern teams in contention for the tournament as is.
(2) BU is a Hockey East team, and it is probably fair that, at minimum (fair or not), 3 HE teams will get in, and BU probably has the third best resume in Hockey East this season.
(3) BGSU is a WCHA team, and it is probably fair that, at maximum (fair or not), 3 WCHA teams will get in, and BGSU probably has the fourth best resume in WCHA this season.
(4) BU lost only 4 games...albeit in a drastically shortened season, with "quality" in-conference wins over BC and PC.
(5) BGSU lost 10 games...albeit playing almost a full season. However, BGSU went 1-7 against the WCHA's top 3.

Sigh...this is why I miss having objective criteria determine our field.

That being said, I do believe that when the tournament field is announced, there will be a big surprise or two getting in that will leave those of us trying to predict this thing scratching our heads.

I'm not sure there is much way left for us to be surprised. After all, you have a well established bubble, and almost all of us agree with it. Looking at conference standings, for example, there is no room for Clarkson, as they have officially ended their season. Neither StL or Colgate has any semblance of a chance at an at-large bid.

Looking further:
AHA - Maybe Army, but you have them covered.
HEA - There is discussion here about Northeastern, Providence, and Connecticut. Northeastern or Connecticut would surprise me, but not leave me scratching my head.
B10 - The only possible head scratcher is Notre Dame, and they basically killed their own chances by losing to Penn State
WCHA - 4 teams with possibilities, BGSU being the last. Again, if they were in, I'd be surprised, but I wouldn't be scratching my head
NCHC - 5 teams with possibilities. If we saw 5 teams in, I'd be surprised.

There really aren't many "out of left field" options left for the committee.

[manurespreader]

I've watched a lot of Atlantic Hockey this year and listened to Dan Rubin a lot. I'd say the difference isn't in the skating or the offense. The difference is in the defense, Western teams are FAR more capable defensively, and goaltending. AH goaltending is not all that great imho.

BTw early in the year Huntsville, who skate 13 freshmen, was at Robert Morris and was leading in the third when the goaltender was hurt in a scrum. RM scored 5 straight goals to win, but until then, Huntsville was the better team..