NCAA Tourney Team Selection Options

[J.D.]

Omaha will be sweating it out now

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Omaha will be sweating it out now

Yeah, depending on what happens elsewhere, I think they are probably on the outside looking in. They were 10-10-5 in regulation, including 1-3-1 against Denver; 1-4-1 against North Dakota; 1-1 against SCSU; and 0-1-1 against Duluth. That's a combined 3-9-3 against the top teams in the conference in regulation.

[J.D.]

But the Mike Kemp factor! I kid but still...

[Fighting Sioux 23]

I just saw that the NCAA waived the Wisconsin Rule for this season, so that would allow Denver to move to the bubble. If the Pios advance to the NCHC Championship game and lose, I would think they would be in the mix for an at-large bid. Obviously two more wins = the auto bid. I think Denver is on the wrong side of the bubble if they lose in the NCHC Semifinals.

ETA: You could also throw Western Michigan in the mix if they were to advance to the NCHC Championship game. That would put them right around .500, with wins over Minnesota Duluth (x3); St. Cloud State (x4); and North Dakota (x1). Throw in they lost their All-Conference goalie for the majority of the season in the first game, and at the very least they should receive the same amount of consideration for an at-large bid as any of the Atlantic Hockey teams.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

After tonight's games, my thoughts...

Locks: (10 teams)
Boston College
Boston University
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Minnesota Duluth
Minnesota State Mankato
North Dakota
Quinnipiac
St. Cloud State
Wisconsin

Bubble: (11 teams: up to 6 can get in)
American International
Army
Bemidji State
Bowling Green
Connecticut
Denver
Lake Superior State
Michigan
Nebraska Omaha
Notre Dame
Providence

Need to win Conference Tournament: (12 teams)
Canisius
Colgate
Massachusetts Lowell
Michigan State
New Hampshire
Niagara
Northeastern
Northern Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Robert Morris
St. Lawrence

Eliminated/DNP/Season Over: (28 teams)
Air Force
Alabama Huntsville
Alaska
Alaska Anchorage
Arizona State
Bentley
Brown
Clarkson
Colorado College
Cornell
Dartmouth
Ferris State
Harvard
Holy Cross
Long Island
Maine
Mercyhurst
Merrimack
Miami
Michigan Tech
Princeton
RIT
RPI
Sacred Heart
Union
Vermont
Western Michigan
Yale

[J.D.]

Denver vaulted Omaha in KRACH but I would imagine would drop below them with a loss to UND. Either way, they are 3-2 against Omaha and ahem, that whole Loveland angle. But Mike Kemp is on the committee...is it possible they get 5 in? Doubtful but now that Denver is at least in the discussion I am sure the committee would love to be able to slot them into Loveland.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Denver vaulted Omaha in KRACH but I would imagine would drop below them with a loss to UND. Either way, they are 3-2 against Omaha and ahem, that whole Loveland angle. But Mike Kemp is on the committee...is it possible they get 5 in? Doubtful but now that Denver is at least in the discussion I am sure the committee would love to be able to slot them into Loveland.

I suppose it is possible, but they shouldn't. This isn't the year for that. I suppose if DU were to go on and win the NCHC Tournament, they could argue that the top 4 (UND, SCSU, Duluth, UNO) were locks, and DU squeaked in with the auto bid. That being said, Omaha was ahead of DU in the regular season, so that should count for something. I believe as discussed earlier, the Women's selection committee used similar logic to put Duluth in over Minnesota (despite the H2H record).

I think one of Denver or Omaha gets in. If DU gets to the NCHC Title game (or, obviously, win the NCHC Tournament), I think they get the nod over Omaha. If DU loses to North Dakota, I think Omaha gets in (barring crazy upsets for auto bids shrinking the at-large field substantially).

But, as you said, Denver to Loveland might weigh a lot in the committee's mind. Poor Mankato...that's probably where they will get sent.

[jjmc85]

If you can’t finish above .500, you don’t deserve an at large bid IMO

[J.D.]

Maybe and ultimately I am ok if the committee follows that rule. But both Denver and Omaha played UND six times. Will be 7 for Denver after next game.

[purpleinnebraska]

Does the NCAA really care about getting Denver into Loveland, when they're not selling tickets anyway?

[Fighting Sioux 23]

If you can’t finish above .500, you don’t deserve an at large bid IMO

I completely agree. I'm not sure the committee agrees.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Does the NCAA really care about getting Denver into Loveland, when they're not selling tickets anyway?

Well, it is one less flight (although Omaha might be close enough for a bus trip if there are relaxed bus distance requirements in place). I'm not sure how much weight the committee would give that factor if they are both bus trips, but if Omaha would be a flight and Denver a bus trip...that could be what tips the scales in an otherwise very close battle (again, all with the presumption that Denver and Omaha are fighting for 1 spot...for all we know neither will make it unless DU wins the NCHC, or both will make regardless of what happens).

Having watched both Omaha and Denver play a lot (including a dozen games against North Dakota), they are really evenly matched teams. That being said, the committee could well use the conference tournament as a de facto tiebreaker. Omaha had their chance against a depleted Denver squad at a neutral location, and failed to capitalize.

[J.D.]

Does the NCAA really care about getting Denver into Loveland, when they're not selling tickets anyway?

Is that set in stone? I think Albany is allowing some fans but I haven't followed Loveland. The one less flight could still be a factor i guess.

[J.D.]

While I think Carle went way over the top in declaring Omaha's season over (very odd move from a coach), I would have no issue with committee ranking them ahead of Omaha based on H2H edge.

I also wonder how Omaha playing 17 "home" games should be viewed. Not their fault obviously but...

I do think Denver clearly solidifies their chances ahead of Omaha by beating UND. If they lose, flip a coin. Neither team would really have a complaint if left out as far as I'm concerned.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

While I think Carle went way over the top in declaring Omaha's season over (very odd move from a coach), I would have no issue with committee ranking them ahead of Omaha based on H2H edge.

I also wonder how Omaha playing 17 "home" games should be viewed. Not their fault obviously but...

I do think Denver clearly solidifies their chances ahead of Omaha by beating UND. If they lose, flip a coin. Neither team would really have a complaint if left out as far as I'm concerned.

I think Carle realizes they won't take 5 from the NCHC, and there is a good chance 1 bid will come down to Omaha and Denver.

I completely agree that Denver is in if they knock off North Dakota (and obviously, if they win the NCHC Tournament). I also agree that if North Dakota beats DU, it will be a coin flip between Omaha and DU for the 4th spot. Omaha would likely be ever so slightly ahead of DU in KRACH. Omaha finished ahead of DU in the regular season. But DU went 3-1-1 in regulation against Omaha, and won the most recent contest (while significantly shorthanded.