Originally posted by Split-N
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* even with current vaccination rate, we're seeing a great reduction in cases due to the beginning of herd immunity, meaning your chances of encountering the virus is dropping daily.
* the vaccination rate is steadily going up, so we're at about 1.6 mil doses a day, where we were at 1 mil/day about 3 weeks ago.
* stats show that even one dose gives significant protection -- around 90% protection, and no cases of serious hospitalization or death.
* supply is ramping up, and J&J will come on line in last week of February with another 100 mil doses.
* By end of June we will be into the phase 3 group. From the message board I follow:
Think of it this way. Less than 2 months ago we started the vaccine rollouts and we were talking about the slowness of them, rightfully so. We only got 11M needles in arms in month 1. Valentine‘s Day this weekend will be the close of month 2, and we’ll have an additional 42-43M needles in arms this month, and still accelerating at about a 4-5% pace per week, while maintaining a reserve of about 18-20M doses. It feels slow because we’re hitting like 0.2-0.4% of the population with first doses each day while getting second doses into the people who received their first doses last month, but over the course of a month, we’re getting another 8-10% of the population vaccinated. So even if we just maintained that with no additional vaccines coming online, we’d be looking at a maximum of 9 months from here to get 100% of all Americans in all ages vaccinated. Obviously, we aren’t hitting kids right now, so that takes out around 25% of the population off the bat, so now we’re down to 6.5 months to get all Americans vaccinated. We know we’ll only have ~70% uptake from adults, so now we’re down to 5 months from here to get everyone who wants a vaccine done. And that’s without J&J coming online. So that puts us at like late July for every adult who wants a vaccine actually having it done. To get to that point, we have to likely have a few months of general population eligibility, which points to April. Even backing in this way gets us there, and once again, this is without the single-shot J&J.
I think we’re done vaccinating the bulk of Americans who want to get vaccinated by mid-June. If we had a shot for kids, I’d extend it to mid-August, but we’re not talking about an extended campaign here for this round of vaccinations at this point. It’s a 3-4 month sprint.
I think we’re done vaccinating the bulk of Americans who want to get vaccinated by mid-June. If we had a shot for kids, I’d extend it to mid-August, but we’re not talking about an extended campaign here for this round of vaccinations at this point. It’s a 3-4 month sprint.
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