Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Hockey East 2020-2021

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by Split-N View Post

    Same story here in MD. I'm Priority 1B but the state and county both claim not enough vaccine to go around. Same result for other 1B folks I know. Not sure what MA is doing but it seems to be way ahead of my state.
    I know its frustrating when you are seeing others get their shots, and you are waiting, but bear in mind:

    * even with current vaccination rate, we're seeing a great reduction in cases due to the beginning of herd immunity, meaning your chances of encountering the virus is dropping daily.

    * the vaccination rate is steadily going up, so we're at about 1.6 mil doses a day, where we were at 1 mil/day about 3 weeks ago.

    * stats show that even one dose gives significant protection -- around 90% protection, and no cases of serious hospitalization or death.

    * supply is ramping up, and J&J will come on line in last week of February with another 100 mil doses.

    * By end of June we will be into the phase 3 group. From the message board I follow:

    Think of it this way. Less than 2 months ago we started the vaccine rollouts and we were talking about the slowness of them, rightfully so. We only got 11M needles in arms in month 1. Valentine‘s Day this weekend will be the close of month 2, and we’ll have an additional 42-43M needles in arms this month, and still accelerating at about a 4-5% pace per week, while maintaining a reserve of about 18-20M doses. It feels slow because we’re hitting like 0.2-0.4% of the population with first doses each day while getting second doses into the people who received their first doses last month, but over the course of a month, we’re getting another 8-10% of the population vaccinated. So even if we just maintained that with no additional vaccines coming online, we’d be looking at a maximum of 9 months from here to get 100% of all Americans in all ages vaccinated. Obviously, we aren’t hitting kids right now, so that takes out around 25% of the population off the bat, so now we’re down to 6.5 months to get all Americans vaccinated. We know we’ll only have ~70% uptake from adults, so now we’re down to 5 months from here to get everyone who wants a vaccine done. And that’s without J&J coming online. So that puts us at like late July for every adult who wants a vaccine actually having it done. To get to that point, we have to likely have a few months of general population eligibility, which points to April. Even backing in this way gets us there, and once again, this is without the single-shot J&J.

    I think we’re done vaccinating the bulk of Americans who want to get vaccinated by mid-June. If we had a shot for kids, I’d extend it to mid-August, but we’re not talking about an extended campaign here for this round of vaccinations at this point. It’s a 3-4 month sprint.
    ETTD

    Comment


    • Maine has 5% percent done in what 6 weeks or so. Not sure how that compares to rest of country? The last 2 weeks have had big drop in new reported cases. Waiting for the Super Bowl bounce though
      I swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell.

      Maine Hockey Love it or Leave it

      Comment


      • Originally posted by walrus View Post
        Maine has 5% percent done in what 6 weeks or so. Not sure how that compares to rest of country? The last 2 weeks have had big drop in new reported cases. Waiting for the Super Bowl bounce though
        13% at least one shot, which provides 90% protection after two weeks (and virtually eliminates hospitalization), so for real world impact, that will generate the exponential drop in cases. Plus, up there in Maine, you never come into contact with anyone else

        Dark green means you are among the leaders in needles at 13%.


        https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/


        Last edited by NCAA watcher; 02-16-2021, 07:59 AM.
        ETTD

        Comment


        • Originally posted by NCAA watcher View Post

          13% at least one shot, which provides 90% protection after two weeks (and virtually eliminates hospitalization), so for real world impact, that will generate the exponential drop in cases. Plus, up there in Maine, you never come into contact with anyone else

          Dark green means you are among the leaders in needles at 13%.


          https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

          Really interesting info here! Useful in my classroom. We are moving along in the right direction! Here's hoping that this vax can take on variants that exist and will continue to exist. Prob will become a 'shot a year' potentially?
          Let's Go SouzaCats!

          Comment


          • Originally posted by HockeyRef View Post

            Really interesting info here! Useful in my classroom. We are moving along in the right direction! Here's hoping that this vax can take on variants that exist and will continue to exist. Prob will become a 'shot a year' potentially?
            Well, the race, that we are likely to win, is between the natural death of the virus once the R0 gets below 1, and how quickly it can mutate to evade that death.

            What do R0 values mean?
            Three possibilities exist for the potential transmission or decline of a disease, depending on its R0 value:
            • If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
            • If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
            • If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will be transmitted between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.
            https://www.healthline.com/health/r-...number#meaning

            Right now, the R0 is below 1, and we are seeing exponential shrinking. We saw that during the first wave, only due to human factors of lockdowns that prevented it from jumping to new hosts. We are in the new phase where the disease is becoming less able to jump to new hosts because of immunity.

            While the flu mutates quickly, we are seeing slower Corona mutations, so my vague guess is that we will see the current vaccines enough to catch up with the mutations, and bring the R0 of those down below 1, where they die out (before they can mutate further to fully escape the vaccines). The current vaccines seem to be strong enough to fend off severe disease, and also to reduce the R0, but because less effective, its not clear whether the R0 will be below 1.

            Just because a variant is more contagious doesn't mean it also will be impervious to vaccination. But the variant first identified in South Africa is raising concerns. Columbia University's David Ho put blood samples from people given the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines into lab dishes with the mutated virus. Vaccine-produced antibodies still protected, but they were much less potent.

            Preliminary test results of two other vaccine candidates — from Novavax and Johnson & Johnson — soon backed up those findings. Both still protected but were weaker when tested in South Africa, where that variant dominates, than when tested elsewhere. A far smaller test of the AstraZeneca vaccine in South Africa has raised questions about its effect.

            "If the virus were able to make an additional mutation or two, it could escape even more,” Ho warned.
            Further, because the virus is mutating slowly, we can hopefully catch up more quickly than with the flu, meaning we can eventually contain it fully.
            ETTD

            Comment


            • To NCAA Watcher, regarding your last few posts: This is interesting information. I must ask, are you a medical professional, or a well-read, thoughtful layman?
              if you walk with Jesus, he's gonna save your soul, you gotta keep the devil way down in the hole

              Comment


              • Originally posted by buoldtimer View Post
                To NCAA Watcher, regarding your last few posts: This is interesting information. I must ask, are you a medical professional, or a well-read, thoughtful layman?
                Regrettably, science skipped my generation. I follow SOSH, where they have many medical professionals who have deep knowledge and share it there. All I do is try to keep up and cross-post here.
                ETTD

                Comment


                • Originally posted by NCAA watcher View Post
                  Plus, up there in Maine, you never come into contact with anyone else

                  I do my best to avoid contact, pandemic or not . Trouble is my job keeps in the public and has for many years. The pandemic hasn't slowed my business down one bit.
                  I swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell.

                  Maine Hockey Love it or Leave it

                  Comment


                  • Lots to encourage optimism now with the roll out of vaccines, and the number of those two weeks past their second vaccine shot just surpassed the total number of people who have been infected in the US. I also think that more willingness to wear masks in public is helping. Here is a short article about how fitting masks better can help even more. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...id-19-pandemic

                    Comment


                    • They just came out saying it is probable the vaccine decreases viral load and therefore most likely decreases the potential transmission for those vaccinated. The jury is still out on the effectiveness against some of the variants- Brazil variant seems to be flying under the radar in the general news media but is much more infectious and seems to be a mutation that backdoors acquired immunity/antibodies. It has made it to the US but hopefully will not get far.

                      Nice to see informative posts with accurate info on here.

                      Comment


                      • So with Rt (Time Varying Reproduction Number) and positivity rates trending down and vaccination rates trending up, the Ivy League still finds it necessary to cancel all Spring sports? I know all too well that COVID is real and that it kills but I'm not in the boat of shutting down the world until all of the metrics reach zero. Maybe the Ivies should fall in line behind Chicago and NYU and just abolish all intercollegiate sports.
                        "Through the years, we ever will acclaim........"

                        Comment


                        • Totally agree. The Ivies would not be missed if they just ditch sports entirely.

                          Comment


                          • @UMassAmherst
                            ATHLETICS
                            All programs resume competition and practice.
                            No home competitions until mid-March.
                            Teams will maintain assigned social bubbles.





                            Comment


                            • I don't quite understand why UMass can play but not at home. Would mid March put them into position to host a tournament game?

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Split-N View Post
                                So with Rt (Time Varying Reproduction Number) and positivity rates trending down and vaccination rates trending up, the Ivy League still finds it necessary to cancel all Spring sports? I know all too well that COVID is real and that it kills but I'm not in the boat of shutting down the world until all of the metrics reach zero. Maybe the Ivies should fall in line behind Chicago and NYU and just abolish all intercollegiate sports.
                                Hear hear. They're more interested in virtue signaling posturing anyway.

                                They've rendered themselves irrelevant in athletics anyway, might as well go all the way ...

                                Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
                                Montreal Expos Forever ...

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X