Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Ahc > wcha

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    Re: Ahc > wcha

    Originally posted by kdiff77 View Post
    To distill your argument into a sentence, you’re basically saying that because the bad teams in the AHA might be slightly better than the bad teams in the WCHA, it’s a better conference? I don’t agree. You can’t ignore Mankato’s success, as much as it doesn’t fit your narrative. I’ll happily concede that they’re the only top-tier program in that conference, but because of that, they help elevate the conference as a whole. BGSU’s success this year and Tech’s and Northern’s occasional forays into the top-20 over the past few years are further support.

    I have no dog in this fight; I’m an ECAC fan. But I will continue to think it’s silly to try to equate the AHA with the WCHA on the basis of fluky NCAA tournament wins.
    Don't misrepresent my point. I never said AHA was better, I said they are closing the gap and may have already closed it (ie the leagues are approximately equal). And it's because the "bad/mediocre" teams in AHA are clearly better than the bad/mediocre teams in the WCHA. This results in a more stratified conference, which makes it easier for the teams at the top of the stratified conference to compile a higher RPI (since it is based on winning percentage, most of a team's games are played inside of their own conference, and teams are not punished in their RPI for playing truly awful teams as long as they win the game.) Minnesota State's "success" has come almost exclusively in the regular season post-realignment, based on beating teams up within their own conference (their non-conference record was 3-2-1, and they were 0-1-1 against other tournament teams. Not exactly the profile of a #1 seed). I mean, you can scream "fluke" all you want, but maybe if Minnesota State was such a top-tier program they would have found their way to winning a single NCAA tournament game by now?

    If you want to measure an entire conference's strength against another, I can think of no better metric than H2H results and inter-conference records, and those two methods provide a snapshot that the conferences are almost dead even at this point. (AHA with a slight small-sample size lead H2H over the last 3 years, and WCHA with an extremely slight lead in inter-conference record). That's not using "fluky" NCAA tournament wins to prove a point (although at some point 7-7 against mostly top seeds over the past 14 years is less fluke and more evidence that the team playing the best in the AHA at the end of the year can play with anyone), that's using regular season results to show that the results on the ice throughout the two conferences have not been much different over the last 3 years.
    Last edited by jflory81; 04-03-2019, 01:42 PM.

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: Ahc > wcha

      Originally posted by jflory81 View Post
      Don't misrepresent my point. I never said AHA was better, I said they are closing the gap and may have already closed it (ie the leagues are approximately equal). And it's because the "bad/mediocre" teams in AHA are clearly better than the bad/mediocre teams in the WCHA. This results in a more stratified conference, which makes it easier for the teams at the top of the stratified conference to compile a higher RPI (since it is based on winning percentage, most of a team's games are played inside of their own conference, and teams are not punished in their RPI for playing truly awful teams as long as they win the game.) Minnesota State's "success" has come almost exclusively in the regular season post-realignment, based on beating teams up within their own conference (their non-conference record was 3-2-1, and they were 0-1-1 against other tournament teams. Not exactly the profile of a #1 seed). I mean, you can scream "fluke" all you want, but maybe if Minnesota State was such a top-tier program they would have found their way to winning a single NCAA tournament game by now?

      If you want to measure an entire conference's strength against another, I can think of no better metric than H2H results and inter-conference records, and those two methods provide a snapshot that the conferences are almost dead even at this point. (AHA with a slight small-sample size lead H2H over the last 3 years, and WCHA with an extremely slight lead in inter-conference record). That's not using "fluky" NCAA tournament wins to prove a point (although at some point 7-7 against mostly top seeds over the past 14 years is less fluke and more evidence that the team playing the best in the AHA at the end of the year can play with anyone), that's using regular season results to show that the results on the ice throughout the two conferences have not been much different over the last 3 years.
      MSU's non-con record was 5-2-1, with road wins at MN and NoDak. Of all the things I thought we'd have to defend, I didn't think our non-conference opponents would be one of those. We play a steady diet of NCHC schools, the Gophers, and BU the last 2 years. Gimme a break. There isn't a team in AH playing a non-con schedule like that and coming out with a winning record.

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Ahc > wcha

        Apologies, I missed the sweep of Minnesota somehow when I went through the schedule. Most teams only play 6 non-conference games. And again, I'm not saying that anyone is better than Minnseota State in Atlantic Hockey, but they're not some behemoth that clearly makes the entire conference superior to the AHA because of their presence. The bottom is just as important as the top when defining the overall strength of a conference, and the advantages at the top for the WCHA are not so significant that they clearly overcome the weakness at the bottom - as evidenced when you compare overall H2H records and inter-conference records of the two conferences.

        As for "not an AHA school playing a non-conference schedule like that and coming out with a winning record"....I'd say Canisius (the last placed school in the AHA's regular season) came pretty close: they swept NoDok, split with Clarkson in a home and home, and went 0-1-1 at a Union team that was ranked at the time. That's a winning record (3-2-1) against a pretty comparable schedule - their opponents ended 8, 18, and 19 in the pairwise (all for 2 game series), while the Minn State opponents were 2 (1 game), 11 (1 game), 19 (2), 21(2), and 24(2).

        Canisius's non-conference opponent's RPI averaged .5388, while MnState's averaged .5332. So yeah, comparable non-conference schedule, and Canisius factually did play it over .500 (albeit not as strong a record as MnState).

        I think some posters are overlooking just how much better the bottom of the AHA has gotten over the last few years (which makes it extremely hard for any team to run away with the regular season title, which in a below average conference makes it difficult to get at large bids / high rankings)
        Last edited by jflory81; 04-03-2019, 09:30 PM.

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: Ahc > wcha

          Originally posted by jflory81 View Post

          I think some posters are overlooking just how much better the bottom of the AHA has gotten over the last few years (which makes it extremely hard for any team to run away with the regular season title, which in a below average conference makes it difficult to get at large bids / high rankings)
          Not denying what Atlantic Hockey is or isn't, but I do think a lot of things have been said about MSU in the last few days -including on this thread- that just don't jibe with the facts. We've failed in the NCAAs; that much is undeniable, and we need to own that and figure it out. But we haven't been a fluke. We've played consistently tough non-conference schedules, and have done quite well against those schedules in 4 of our 5 NCAA tournament years under Hastings (exception: 2013-2014). Just last year, we beat UMD, the eventual national champion, in the regular season, before losing to them in OT in the tournament. And our conference likewise has tough competition; there have been multiple WCHA teams in the tournament in our last 3 appearances. We've definitely earned our way into the tournament, and have earned the top 4 seedings we had in 2015 and 2019.

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: Ahc > wcha

            Originally posted by devildog View Post
            I don't get the point. Is the WCHA supposed to pack it in because other conferences have had more success? When all the conference re-alignment crap took place, the WCHA was left with a group of small market teams that were shoved to the side by all the elite schools. Given the situation, I think the WCHA has done fine. Anybody can see that other conferences will have more success than the the WCHA, heck, that was the whole point of the re-alignment, wasn't it?
            "RE-alignment" . aka . Power Play for more money was the plan......... which didn't pan out big as some talked it up. Some ego's got fired. Alaska teams still pay both ways since day one.................. league money is a statment instead of a check. Worst College Hockey Affiliation will not get better.
            Alaska Dispatch .... Doyle Woody
            UAF made the kind of hockey history on October 10th 2015 that no team wants to claim – the Nanooks became the first NCAA Division I victim of Arizona State.


            Originally Posted by WeWantMore At least you guys have Packers colors.

            I Must be Famous ....a School named their program after me

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: Ahc > wcha

              It took about five years for the post-DII ripples to turn into tsunamis that crushed some schools. Those ended up killing the CHA and making the MAAC the AHA/AHC. Will being six seasons out from the last big realignment be a similar timeframe for change? We'll see.

              GFM
              Geof F. Morris
              UAH BSE MAE 2002
              UAHHockey.com

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: Ahc > wcha

                Im not sure what specifically there was that killed Iona, Fairfield, Findlay and Wayne State that’s more meaningful than the fact that none of them could reliably draw more than 1000 people to their games (frequently drawing much fewer).

                Now, the same thing could be said about most of the AHA, but they’ve all been like this for years at this point, so I’m not too concerned about them.

                Really if we’re taking about schools that could be in danger due to anything related to realignment, I’d have to imagine it’s the WCHA that’s vulnerable. But even then, the schools at highest risk are the Alaska schools, for reasons that aren’t very related to conferences.

                Historically, UAH is the school with the hardest path to financial success… attendance is down some but not too bad as far as I can tell. How do you think they’re doing, GFM? I recall hearing that UAH was going to build a new rink, which I would imagine would be a huge help.
                If you want to be a BADGER, just come along with me

                BRING BACK PAT RICHTER!!!


                At his graduation ceremony from the U of Minnesota, my cousin got a keychain. When asked what UW gave her for graduation, my sister said, "A degree from a University that matters."

                Canned music is a pathetic waste of your time.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Ahc > wcha

                  Skating circles around the WHCA:

                  Ylae*: Old and Busted
                  AHC: New Hotness

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Ahc > wcha

                    Logically (HA!) Anything West of Wisconsin is WCHA 3.0 or NCHC 2.0 and anything East of Duluth is CCHA 2.0.

                    Split Alaska (if they both survive).

                    Never happen, but it makes good sense.
                    CCT '77 & '78
                    4 kids
                    5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
                    1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

                    ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
                    - Benjamin Franklin

                    Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

                    I want to live forever. So far, so good.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Ahc > wcha

                      Originally posted by ExileOnDaytonStreet View Post
                      Im not sure what specifically there was that killed Iona, Fairfield, Findlay and Wayne State that’s more meaningful than the fact that none of them could reliably draw more than 1000 people to their games (frequently drawing much fewer).

                      Now, the same thing could be said about most of the AHA, but they’ve all been like this for years at this point, so I’m not too concerned about them.

                      Really if we’re taking about schools that could be in danger due to anything related to realignment, I’d have to imagine it’s the WCHA that’s vulnerable. But even then, the schools at highest risk are the Alaska schools, for reasons that aren’t very related to conferences.

                      Historically, UAH is the school with the hardest path to financial success… attendance is down some but not too bad as far as I can tell. How do you think they’re doing, GFM? I recall hearing that UAH was going to build a new rink, which I would imagine would be a huge help.
                      Re: the folks in the 2000s who went under: it was generally money. WSU couldn't get a rink built; Findlay's President left, and the program died when he did (he was the coach's FIL).

                      We are hoping for that new facility! That would be a big boon for the entire department.

                      GFM
                      Geof F. Morris
                      UAH BSE MAE 2002
                      UAHHockey.com

                      Comment

                      Working...
                      X