Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • ticapnews
    replied
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Originally posted by RPI fan 4 life View Post
    But BGSU still gets in with a win tomorrow night.
    Obviously

    Assuming the predictor is working and my cookies aren't all screwed up...

    Done deals
    Fargo: St Cloud vs AHA
    Manchester: UMass vs Harvard
    Providence: MSUM/UMD vs Providence (if PC makes it)

    Likely:
    Fargo: Denver vs Cornell
    Allentown: UMD/MSUM vs Penn State/ND; Ohio State vs Clarkson/BGSU or Clarkson vs Penn State/ND/BGSU
    Providence: NU/QC vs ASU/BGSU
    Manchester: QC/NU vs BGSU/ASU

    Hard to see any nightmare scenarios for the NCAA this year. Fargo is solid, the committee loves putting PC in Providence and they're getting a local team, Allentown is getting either ND or host PSU plus Ohio State or Clarkson, Manchester is getting two, possibly three, local teams and/or a novelty in ASU. Even if BC and Penn State pull the upsets and there are 2 HEA 4-seeds, it works out because Penn State moves up to 12.

    Still some drama left on the final day but we do have a good idea where teams are going.

    Leave a comment:


  • RPI fan 4 life
    replied
    Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
    Now Providence gets in in most scenarios with BC winning and BGSU is out. This is bizarre.
    But BGSU still gets in with a win tomorrow night.

    Leave a comment:


  • ticapnews
    replied
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Now Providence gets in in most scenarios with BC winning and BGSU is out. This is bizarre.

    Leave a comment:


  • ticapnews
    replied
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    If Boston College doesn't win this game (0-0 1st) tomorrow could be very boring. It looks like Harvard, Cornell and BGSU are in, the winner of the B1G and AHA are in so it comes down to either BC or Providence. Tomorrow will be about teams in the 4 seed spot (ND/PSU, Cornell, Harvard, BGSU) trying to snag a 3 seed and avoid playing one of the big boys.

    We now know that St Cloud will be #1 in Fargo and play the AHA champion. We can guess that if BC loses tonight the Friars will be placed in Providence as the 4 seed. That means the UMass bracket (likely 2-7-10-15) will be in Manchester.

    As I type this BC takes a 1-0 lead with just :13 left in the first period. Killer.

    Leave a comment:


  • fr. joe
    replied
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Originally posted by fr. joe View Post
    BU and Northeastern are in OT, 1-1
    AIC and Robt Morris are in OT, 2-2
    Cornell 6, Brown 0
    St Cloud 3, CC 1 after 2
    FINALS:
    Northastern 2, BU 1
    AIC 3, Robt Morris 2
    Cornell 6, Brown 0
    St Cloud 5, CC 2

    Is Union out now? I thought their path forward was predicated on CC winning their tournament.

    Leave a comment:


  • fr. joe
    replied
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    BU and Northeastern are in OT, 1-1
    AIC and Robt Morris are in OT, 2-2
    Cornell 6, Brown 0
    St Cloud 3, CC 1 after 2
    Last edited by fr. joe; 03-22-2019, 06:56 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ed Trefzger
    replied
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Fargo is the closest regional to St. Cloud and since host North Dakota is out, that seems the most likely scenario. You’d expect that the NCAA would fly the AHA winner there, but I suppose there’s a scenario in which the number 15 seed could swap there for travel reasons.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    Leave a comment:


  • JimDahl
    replied
    Originally posted by hky View Post
    Is there any way a team other than St. Cloud is #1, therefore putting them in Fargo?
    I don't think anyone other than St. Cloud can be #1. As to whether that guarantees they'll be in Fargo, I'll leave to the experts.

    Leave a comment:


  • hky
    replied
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Originally posted by Ed Trefzger View Post
    I don't know what's going on in your browser but when I follow your link, I get no consolation winner for NCHC. When I pick CC, Northeastern is 5th. When I pick UMD, Northeastern is 6th. And in both cases it's 1-1-0 St. Cloud (from 1-0 vs. BC and 0-1 vs. Union) and 3-3-0 Northeastern (3-1 vs. BC and 0-2 vs. Union), resulting 1.000 SCSU and .750 NU. We can't reproduce what you are seeing.

    The browser stores your choices in a session that is associated with a cookie. It's possible that you've got double information stored somehow. Please try the Start Over button or if that doesn't work, clearing cookies for the domain pwp.uscho.com.


    Is there any way a team other than St. Cloud is #1, therefore putting them in Fargo?

    Leave a comment:


  • Ed Trefzger
    replied
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Originally posted by The Exiled One View Post
    Then how come it looks different than the screenshot I made yesterday?

    SCENARIO FROM YESTERDAY...


    SAME SCENARIO TODAY...


    https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairw..._5c93db55c42f0

    Your predictor is still broken, as Northeastern cannot get to a 4-3 common opponent record with SCSU.
    I don't know what's going on in your browser but when I follow your link, I get no consolation winner for NCHC. When I pick CC, Northeastern is 5th. When I pick UMD, Northeastern is 6th. And in both cases it's 1-1-0 St. Cloud (from 1-0 vs. BC and 0-1 vs. Union) and 3-3-0 Northeastern (3-1 vs. BC and 0-2 vs. Union), resulting 1.000 SCSU and .750 NU. We can't reproduce what you are seeing.

    The browser stores your choices in a session that is associated with a cookie. It's possible that you've got double information stored somehow. Please try the Start Over button or if that doesn't work, clearing cookies for the domain pwp.uscho.com.

    Leave a comment:


  • The Exiled One
    replied
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Originally posted by TheRevengeance View Post
    Are you sure you're not breaking it by leaving the NCHC consolation blank? It looks like when that game is filled SCSU goes back up to 1st.
    Not for me it doesn't. Look at the individual comparisons and see what it shows for St. Cloud and Northeastern in the common opponents column.

    Leave a comment:


  • TheRevengeance
    replied
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Are you sure you're not breaking it by leaving the NCHC consolation blank? It looks like when that game is filled SCSU goes back up to 1st.

    Leave a comment:


  • The Exiled One
    replied
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Originally posted by Ed Trefzger View Post
    Thanks for taking the effort to reach out, but that wasn't the issue. The common opponents was and is calculated correctly. There's a really good explanation of how that works here: https://www.uscho.com/faq/pairwise-r...s-explanation/
    Then how come it looks different than the screenshot I made yesterday?

    SCENARIO FROM YESTERDAY...


    SAME SCENARIO TODAY...


    https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairw..._5c93db55c42f0

    Your predictor is still broken, as Northeastern cannot get to a 4-3 common opponent record with SCSU.
    Last edited by The Exiled One; 03-21-2019, 02:49 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • ScoobyFanClub
    replied
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Originally posted by cetihcra View Post
    There's a generic example in the USCHO explanation page that Ed posted earlier where there is a difference between summing and averaging the COp percentages, it could flip a comparison in extreme cases. I think the example is somebody with a 4-3-1 COp beats a team with a 10-3-1.

    r

    Edit: gotcha, averaging the W% against each team will yield the same result, my bad.
    yeah - just to be clear, that's what I meant ... they're both still using the "new" method of going by the W% vs. each team, and not the total W-L ... so at that point, if you add those averages together - or average the averages - it's the same thing, since the divisor is the same for both teams.

    Leave a comment:


  • cetihcra
    replied
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Originally posted by ScoobyFanClub View Post
    Summing the COP percentages ... and averaging the COP percentages ... give you the exact same thing. It doesn't matter either way. So CHN is not wrong, per se, and neither is USCHO. ... Since everyone is coming up with the same results in the Pairwise, it's doubtful anyone has it wrong.
    There's a generic example in the USCHO explanation page that Ed posted earlier where there is a difference between summing and averaging the COp percentages, it could flip a comparison in extreme cases. I think the example is somebody with a 4-3-1 COp beats a team with a 10-3-1.

    r

    Edit: gotcha, averaging the W% against each team will yield the same result, my bad.

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X