2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

[ticapnews]

Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

But BGSU still gets in with a win tomorrow night.

Obviously

Assuming the predictor is working and my cookies aren't all screwed up...

Done deals
Fargo: St Cloud vs AHA
Manchester: UMass vs Harvard
Providence: MSUM/UMD vs Providence (if PC makes it)

Likely:
Fargo: Denver vs Cornell
Allentown: UMD/MSUM vs Penn State/ND; Ohio State vs Clarkson/BGSU or Clarkson vs Penn State/ND/BGSU
Providence: NU/QC vs ASU/BGSU
Manchester: QC/NU vs BGSU/ASU

Hard to see any nightmare scenarios for the NCAA this year. Fargo is solid, the committee loves putting PC in Providence and they're getting a local team, Allentown is getting either ND or host PSU plus Ohio State or Clarkson, Manchester is getting two, possibly three, local teams and/or a novelty in ASU. Even if BC and Penn State pull the upsets and there are 2 HEA 4-seeds, it works out because Penn State moves up to 12.

Still some drama left on the final day but we do have a good idea where teams are going.

[RPI fan 4 life]

Now Providence gets in in most scenarios with BC winning and BGSU is out. This is bizarre.

But BGSU still gets in with a win tomorrow night.

[ticapnews]

Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

Now Providence gets in in most scenarios with BC winning and BGSU is out. This is bizarre.

[ticapnews]

Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

If Boston College doesn't win this game (0-0 1st) tomorrow could be very boring. It looks like Harvard, Cornell and BGSU are in, the winner of the B1G and AHA are in so it comes down to either BC or Providence. Tomorrow will be about teams in the 4 seed spot (ND/PSU, Cornell, Harvard, BGSU) trying to snag a 3 seed and avoid playing one of the big boys.

We now know that St Cloud will be #1 in Fargo and play the AHA champion. We can guess that if BC loses tonight the Friars will be placed in Providence as the 4 seed. That means the UMass bracket (likely 2-7-10-15) will be in Manchester.

As I type this BC takes a 1-0 lead with just :13 left in the first period. Killer.

[fr. joe]

Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

BU and Northeastern are in OT, 1-1
AIC and Robt Morris are in OT, 2-2
Cornell 6, Brown 0
St Cloud 3, CC 1 after 2

FINALS:
Northastern 2, BU 1
AIC 3, Robt Morris 2
Cornell 6, Brown 0
St Cloud 5, CC 2

Is Union out now? I thought their path forward was predicated on CC winning their tournament.

[fr. joe]

Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

BU and Northeastern are in OT, 1-1
AIC and Robt Morris are in OT, 2-2
Cornell 6, Brown 0
St Cloud 3, CC 1 after 2

[Ed Trefzger]

Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

Fargo is the closest regional to St. Cloud and since host North Dakota is out, that seems the most likely scenario. You’d expect that the NCAA would fly the AHA winner there, but I suppose there’s a scenario in which the number 15 seed could swap there for travel reasons.


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[JimDahl]

Is there any way a team other than St. Cloud is #1, therefore putting them in Fargo?

I don't think anyone other than St. Cloud can be #1. As to whether that guarantees they'll be in Fargo, I'll leave to the experts.

[hky]

Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

I don't know what's going on in your browser but when I follow your link, I get no consolation winner for NCHC. When I pick CC, Northeastern is 5th. When I pick UMD, Northeastern is 6th. And in both cases it's 1-1-0 St. Cloud (from 1-0 vs. BC and 0-1 vs. Union) and 3-3-0 Northeastern (3-1 vs. BC and 0-2 vs. Union), resulting 1.000 SCSU and .750 NU. We can't reproduce what you are seeing.

The browser stores your choices in a session that is associated with a cookie. It's possible that you've got double information stored somehow. Please try the Start Over button or if that doesn't work, clearing cookies for the domain pwp.uscho.com.

Is there any way a team other than St. Cloud is #1, therefore putting them in Fargo?

[Ed Trefzger]

Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

Then how come it looks different than the screenshot I made yesterday?

SCENARIO FROM YESTERDAY...


SAME SCENARIO TODAY...


https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairw..._5c93db55c42f0

Your predictor is still broken, as Northeastern cannot get to a 4-3 common opponent record with SCSU.

I don't know what's going on in your browser but when I follow your link, I get no consolation winner for NCHC. When I pick CC, Northeastern is 5th. When I pick UMD, Northeastern is 6th. And in both cases it's 1-1-0 St. Cloud (from 1-0 vs. BC and 0-1 vs. Union) and 3-3-0 Northeastern (3-1 vs. BC and 0-2 vs. Union), resulting 1.000 SCSU and .750 NU. We can't reproduce what you are seeing.

The browser stores your choices in a session that is associated with a cookie. It's possible that you've got double information stored somehow. Please try the Start Over button or if that doesn't work, clearing cookies for the domain pwp.uscho.com.

[The Exiled One]

Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

Are you sure you're not breaking it by leaving the NCHC consolation blank? It looks like when that game is filled SCSU goes back up to 1st.

Not for me it doesn't. Look at the individual comparisons and see what it shows for St. Cloud and Northeastern in the common opponents column.

[TheRevengeance]

Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

Are you sure you're not breaking it by leaving the NCHC consolation blank? It looks like when that game is filled SCSU goes back up to 1st.

[The Exiled One]

Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

Thanks for taking the effort to reach out, but that wasn't the issue. The common opponents was and is calculated correctly. There's a really good explanation of how that works here: https://www.uscho.com/faq/pairwise-r...s-explanation/

Then how come it looks different than the screenshot I made yesterday?

SCENARIO FROM YESTERDAY...


SAME SCENARIO TODAY...


https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairw..._5c93db55c42f0

Your predictor is still broken, as Northeastern cannot get to a 4-3 common opponent record with SCSU.

[ScoobyFanClub]

Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

There's a generic example in the USCHO explanation page that Ed posted earlier where there is a difference between summing and averaging the COp percentages, it could flip a comparison in extreme cases. I think the example is somebody with a 4-3-1 COp beats a team with a 10-3-1.

r

Edit: gotcha, averaging the W% against each team will yield the same result, my bad.

yeah - just to be clear, that's what I meant ... they're both still using the "new" method of going by the W% vs. each team, and not the total W-L ... so at that point, if you add those averages together - or average the averages - it's the same thing, since the divisor is the same for both teams.

[cetihcra]

Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

Summing the COP percentages ... and averaging the COP percentages ... give you the exact same thing. It doesn't matter either way. So CHN is not wrong, per se, and neither is USCHO. ... Since everyone is coming up with the same results in the Pairwise, it's doubtful anyone has it wrong.

There's a generic example in the USCHO explanation page that Ed posted earlier where there is a difference between summing and averaging the COp percentages, it could flip a comparison in extreme cases. I think the example is somebody with a 4-3-1 COp beats a team with a 10-3-1.

r

Edit: gotcha, averaging the W% against each team will yield the same result, my bad.