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2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

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  • #46
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    If it was working correctly, please explain how there is any situation wherein NU should win the common opponents comparison over SCSU, which they clearly do in the screenshot he provided. Their only common opponents are Union (.000 for both teams) and BC (1.000 for SCSU and something between .500 and .750 for NU). If it works right the SCSU number should never be anything but 1.000 and the NU number should never be able to surpass it.

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    • #47
      Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

      Originally posted by TheRevengeance View Post
      If it was working correctly, please explain how there is any situation wherein NU should win the common opponents comparison over SCSU, which they clearly do in the screenshot he provided. Their only common opponents are Union (.000 for both teams) and BC (1.000 for SCSU and something between .500 and .750 for NU). If it works right the SCSU number should never be anything but 1.000 and the NU number should never be able to surpass it.
      "Starting in the 2011-12 season, the common opponent calculation compares the sum of the winning percentages against each opponent"...per this, CHN isn't calculating COp correctly, but you're correct. USCHO's table HERE shows the correct data. CHN has SCSU's COp w/ NE as .500 to .333.

      r

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      • #48
        Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

        Originally posted by cetihcra View Post
        "Starting in the 2011-12 season, the common opponent calculation compares the sum of the winning percentages against each opponent"...per this, CHN isn't calculating COp correctly, but you're correct. USCHO's table HERE shows the correct data. CHN has SCSU's COp w/ NE as .500 to .333.

        r
        Summing the COP percentages ... and averaging the COP percentages ... give you the exact same thing. It doesn't matter either way. So CHN is not wrong, per se, and neither is USCHO. ... Since everyone is coming up with the same results in the Pairwise, it's doubtful anyone has it wrong.

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        • #49
          Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

          Originally posted by ScoobyFanClub View Post
          Summing the COP percentages ... and averaging the COP percentages ... give you the exact same thing. It doesn't matter either way. So CHN is not wrong, per se, and neither is USCHO. ... Since everyone is coming up with the same results in the Pairwise, it's doubtful anyone has it wrong.
          There's a generic example in the USCHO explanation page that Ed posted earlier where there is a difference between summing and averaging the COp percentages, it could flip a comparison in extreme cases. I think the example is somebody with a 4-3-1 COp beats a team with a 10-3-1.

          r

          Edit: gotcha, averaging the W% against each team will yield the same result, my bad.

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          • #50
            Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

            Originally posted by cetihcra View Post
            There's a generic example in the USCHO explanation page that Ed posted earlier where there is a difference between summing and averaging the COp percentages, it could flip a comparison in extreme cases. I think the example is somebody with a 4-3-1 COp beats a team with a 10-3-1.

            r

            Edit: gotcha, averaging the W% against each team will yield the same result, my bad.
            yeah - just to be clear, that's what I meant ... they're both still using the "new" method of going by the W% vs. each team, and not the total W-L ... so at that point, if you add those averages together - or average the averages - it's the same thing, since the divisor is the same for both teams.

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            • #51
              Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

              Originally posted by Ed Trefzger View Post
              Thanks for taking the effort to reach out, but that wasn't the issue. The common opponents was and is calculated correctly. There's a really good explanation of how that works here: https://www.uscho.com/faq/pairwise-r...s-explanation/
              Then how come it looks different than the screenshot I made yesterday?

              SCENARIO FROM YESTERDAY...


              SAME SCENARIO TODAY...


              https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairw..._5c93db55c42f0

              Your predictor is still broken, as Northeastern cannot get to a 4-3 common opponent record with SCSU.
              Last edited by The Exiled One; 03-21-2019, 02:49 PM.
              scsuhockey.com
              CollegeHockeyRecruitExchange.com

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              • #52
                Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                Are you sure you're not breaking it by leaving the NCHC consolation blank? It looks like when that game is filled SCSU goes back up to 1st.

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                • #53
                  Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                  Originally posted by TheRevengeance View Post
                  Are you sure you're not breaking it by leaving the NCHC consolation blank? It looks like when that game is filled SCSU goes back up to 1st.
                  Not for me it doesn't. Look at the individual comparisons and see what it shows for St. Cloud and Northeastern in the common opponents column.
                  scsuhockey.com
                  CollegeHockeyRecruitExchange.com

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                  • #54
                    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                    Originally posted by The Exiled One View Post
                    Then how come it looks different than the screenshot I made yesterday?

                    SCENARIO FROM YESTERDAY...


                    SAME SCENARIO TODAY...


                    https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairw..._5c93db55c42f0

                    Your predictor is still broken, as Northeastern cannot get to a 4-3 common opponent record with SCSU.
                    I don't know what's going on in your browser but when I follow your link, I get no consolation winner for NCHC. When I pick CC, Northeastern is 5th. When I pick UMD, Northeastern is 6th. And in both cases it's 1-1-0 St. Cloud (from 1-0 vs. BC and 0-1 vs. Union) and 3-3-0 Northeastern (3-1 vs. BC and 0-2 vs. Union), resulting 1.000 SCSU and .750 NU. We can't reproduce what you are seeing.

                    The browser stores your choices in a session that is associated with a cookie. It's possible that you've got double information stored somehow. Please try the Start Over button or if that doesn't work, clearing cookies for the domain pwp.uscho.com.

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                    • #55
                      Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                      Originally posted by Ed Trefzger View Post
                      I don't know what's going on in your browser but when I follow your link, I get no consolation winner for NCHC. When I pick CC, Northeastern is 5th. When I pick UMD, Northeastern is 6th. And in both cases it's 1-1-0 St. Cloud (from 1-0 vs. BC and 0-1 vs. Union) and 3-3-0 Northeastern (3-1 vs. BC and 0-2 vs. Union), resulting 1.000 SCSU and .750 NU. We can't reproduce what you are seeing.

                      The browser stores your choices in a session that is associated with a cookie. It's possible that you've got double information stored somehow. Please try the Start Over button or if that doesn't work, clearing cookies for the domain pwp.uscho.com.


                      Is there any way a team other than St. Cloud is #1, therefore putting them in Fargo?

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                      • #56
                        Originally posted by hky View Post
                        Is there any way a team other than St. Cloud is #1, therefore putting them in Fargo?
                        I don't think anyone other than St. Cloud can be #1. As to whether that guarantees they'll be in Fargo, I'll leave to the experts.

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                        • #57
                          Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                          Fargo is the closest regional to St. Cloud and since host North Dakota is out, that seems the most likely scenario. You’d expect that the NCAA would fly the AHA winner there, but I suppose there’s a scenario in which the number 15 seed could swap there for travel reasons.


                          Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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                          • #58
                            Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                            BU and Northeastern are in OT, 1-1
                            AIC and Robt Morris are in OT, 2-2
                            Cornell 6, Brown 0
                            St Cloud 3, CC 1 after 2
                            Last edited by fr. joe; 03-22-2019, 06:56 PM.

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                            • #59
                              Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                              Originally posted by fr. joe View Post
                              BU and Northeastern are in OT, 1-1
                              AIC and Robt Morris are in OT, 2-2
                              Cornell 6, Brown 0
                              St Cloud 3, CC 1 after 2
                              FINALS:
                              Northastern 2, BU 1
                              AIC 3, Robt Morris 2
                              Cornell 6, Brown 0
                              St Cloud 5, CC 2

                              Is Union out now? I thought their path forward was predicated on CC winning their tournament.

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                              • #60
                                Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                                If Boston College doesn't win this game (0-0 1st) tomorrow could be very boring. It looks like Harvard, Cornell and BGSU are in, the winner of the B1G and AHA are in so it comes down to either BC or Providence. Tomorrow will be about teams in the 4 seed spot (ND/PSU, Cornell, Harvard, BGSU) trying to snag a 3 seed and avoid playing one of the big boys.

                                We now know that St Cloud will be #1 in Fargo and play the AHA champion. We can guess that if BC loses tonight the Friars will be placed in Providence as the 4 seed. That means the UMass bracket (likely 2-7-10-15) will be in Manchester.

                                As I type this BC takes a 1-0 lead with just :13 left in the first period. Killer.

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