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2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

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  • #31
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    After working with the CHN guys a bit on it, their calculator is now producing the same results as my forecasts. It was the home/neutral issue, and they're now treating Big Ten and WCHA championships as home games for the hosts. Now that I trust the results again, I'll see if I can whip up some interesting analysis in the remaining 2 days.

    Here's the most unlikely one:

    Union gets in!

    Obviously you need all but Atlantic Hockey to be won by teams that otherwise finish in the top 15. Then you have to get Union up to 15, which is a delicate balancing act (e.g. the scenario above pushes Union's RPI .0002 above Notre Dame's); so many scenarios that meet the previous criterion, like Mass defeating Northeastern, wouldn't work. Of about 49,000 possible remaining outcomes, Union makes it in 20.

    (Of course, due to all the issues discussed in this thread, that scenario won't produce the same result in USCHO's calculator).
    Last edited by JimDahl; 03-20-2019, 07:19 PM.

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    • #32
      Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

      Everything else I keep reading from other sources says that St Cloud is the guaranteed top overall seed based on any and all outcomes this weekend. But for some reason the Exiled One can still find a route that shows Mankato passing them. Maybe that "bug" has now been fixed with the home/neutral sites for the Big Ten and WCHA, per Jim Dahl.

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      • #33
        Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

        Season not officially over for Union. CHN found one scenario (actually 4) that gets Union into the tournament. Its unlikely but anything is possible. It doesn't matter what the Atlantic Hockey teams do by the way because if any of the 4 win then Union would still be in.

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        • #34
          Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

          Originally posted by ThePowerConference View Post
          Everything else I keep reading from other sources says that St Cloud is the guaranteed top overall seed based on any and all outcomes this weekend. But for some reason the Exiled One can still find a route that shows Mankato passing them. Maybe that "bug" has now been fixed with the home/neutral sites for the Big Ten and WCHA, per Jim Dahl.
          No, the home/neutral debate affects RPI. The bug on the predictor tool is with Common Opponents. It's still broken.
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          • #35
            Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

            Originally posted by QUAlum2004 View Post
            Season not officially over for Union. CHN found one scenario (actually 4) that gets Union into the tournament. Its unlikely but anything is possible. It doesn't matter what the Atlantic Hockey teams do by the way because if any of the 4 win then Union would still be in.

            https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ra...0#.XJKb9ChKiUm
            And, amazingly, this outcome depends on CC winning the NCHC conso game. That gets them just barely above Notre Dame in the RPI. And, they come out ahead of Providence because of 2 interesting results:
            1- Notre Dame still wins the compare with Providence
            2- Union wins the compare with St Cloud.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by QUAlum2004 View Post
              Season not officially over for Union. CHN found one scenario (actually 4) that gets Union into the tournament. Its unlikely but anything is possible. It doesn't matter what the Atlantic Hockey teams do by the way because if any of the 4 win then Union would still be in.

              https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ra...0#.XJKb9ChKiUm
              Actually 20 (of the 49,152).

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              • #37
                Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                Originally posted by The Exiled One View Post
                I'm not sure the USCHO is even trying to fix their predictor tool, which appears to be miscalculating the common opponents variable.



                For the Sum of Win% column, I believe it should read 1.000 for both teams. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.
                I think that you are looking at the overall Common Opponent record whereas the calculators count the records against each opponent separately and then calculate again. For example 0-2 and 0-1 against an opponent are the same .0000 and 1-0 would be 1.000 while 3-1 would be .7500. Averaging the results brings one to .5000 and the other to .3750 even though total common opponent would be .5000 for each.

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                • #38
                  Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                  I think the USCHO predictor was just reset.

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                  • #39
                    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                    Originally posted by BC/HE View Post
                    I think that you are looking at the overall Common Opponent record whereas the calculators count the records against each opponent separately and then calculate again. For example 0-2 and 0-1 against an opponent are the same .0000 and 1-0 would be 1.000 while 3-1 would be .7500. Averaging the results brings one to .5000 and the other to .3750 even though total common opponent would be .5000 for each.
                    It's not the average of the results but the sum of the winning percentages against each.

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                    • #40
                      Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                      Originally posted by Ed Trefzger View Post
                      It's not the average of the results but the sum of the winning percentages against each.
                      I didn't know quite know how to express that but meant to explain that you separate the records against each opponent and not just combine the total common opponent record. Thanks for clarifying it.

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                      • #41
                        Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                        Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                        Actually 20 (of the 49,152).
                        Get the golf clubs out.
                        Go Pioneers!

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                        • #42
                          Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                          Originally posted by MagnessMan View Post
                          Get the golf clubs out.
                          Their seniors have started to turn pro, so even if somehow the stars align, they will be short.
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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
                            I think the USCHO predictor was just reset.
                            Yep. They seem to have, without notice or comment, modified it to mirror my results and CHN's. So, you can now use the USCHO predictor to verify the Union scenarios, for example, which you previously couldn't:

                            http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi..._5c92f2e092927

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                            • #44
                              Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                              Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                              Yep. They seem to have, without notice or comment, modified it to mirror my results and CHN's. So, you can now use the USCHO predictor to verify the Union scenarios, for example, which you previously couldn't:

                              http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi..._5c92f2e092927
                              They fixed it after I tweeted at them.

                              https://twitter.com/TheExiledOne/sta...77199861063681
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                              • #45
                                Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                                Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                                Yep. They seem to have, without notice or comment, modified it to mirror my results and CHN's. So, you can now use the USCHO predictor to verify the Union scenarios, for example, which you previously couldn't:

                                http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi..._5c92f2e092927
                                From what I understand, we changed the Big Ten and WCHA games to home/away instead of neutral in one part of the script on Monday, but a bug down the line in the RPI library (which we've replaced except in this script) caused by an upgrade of PHP and the resulting deprecation of an expression broke that. I don't think we were trying to mirror anyone. You're welcome at any time to reach out to more than one site when you see an issue.

                                Originally posted by The Exiled One View Post
                                They fixed it after I tweeted at them.

                                https://twitter.com/TheExiledOne/sta...77199861063681
                                Thanks for taking the effort to reach out, but that wasn't the issue. The common opponents was and is calculated correctly. There's a really good explanation of how that works here: https://www.uscho.com/faq/pairwise-r...s-explanation/

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