Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

After working with the CHN guys a bit on it, their calculator is now producing the same results as my forecasts. It was the home/neutral issue, and they're now treating Big Ten and WCHA championships as home games for the hosts. Now that I trust the results again, I'll see if I can whip up some interesting analysis in the remaining 2 days.

Here's the most unlikely one:

Union gets in!

Obviously you need all but Atlantic Hockey to be won by teams that otherwise finish in the top 15. Then you have to get Union up to 15, which is a delicate balancing act (e.g. the scenario above pushes Union's RPI .0002 above Notre Dame's); so many scenarios that meet the previous criterion, like Mass defeating Northeastern, wouldn't work. Of about 49,000 possible remaining outcomes, Union makes it in 20.

(Of course, due to all the issues discussed in this thread, that scenario won't produce the same result in USCHO's calculator).

After working with the CHN guys a bit on it, their calculator is now producing the same results as my forecasts. It was the home/neutral issue, and they're now treating Big Ten and WCHA championships as home games for the hosts. Now that I trust the results again, I'll see if I can whip up some interesting analysis in the remaining 2 days.

Here's the most unlikely one:

Union gets in!

Obviously you need all but Atlantic Hockey to be won by teams that otherwise finish in the top 15. Then you have to get Union up to 15, which is a delicate balancing act (e.g. the scenario above pushes Union's RPI .0002 above Notre Dame's); so many scenarios that meet the previous criterion, like Mass defeating Northeastern, wouldn't work. Of about 49,000 possible remaining outcomes, Union makes it in 20.

(Of course, due to all the issues discussed in this thread, that scenario won't produce the same result in USCHO's calculator).

## Comment