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2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

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  • #16
    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Jim, I tweeted at CHN asking and it appears they intended for these to be calculated as home games but it isn't happening for some reason. So it looks like you're right.

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    • #17
      Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

      I got BG in unless: BU/'BC win out, or CC wins out. Otherwise I can't find a way BG is out.
      MTU: Three time NCAA champions.

      It never get's easier, you just go faster. -Greg Lemond

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      • #18
        Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

        Weird. When I do the same thing on CHN, seems like SCSU is still number 1
        #NewMass

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        • #19
          Originally posted by TheRevengeance View Post
          Jim, I tweeted at CHN asking and it appears they intended for these to be calculated as home games but it isn't happening for some reason. So it looks like you're right.
          Update: CHN seems to have updated their calculator to have the home/road weights applied. Uscho and CHN now give me different RPI results for those games. If you're still seeing the same results on CHN maybe clear your browser.

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          • #20
            Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

            Not only that, but if you look at the tables for that scenario it shows a different RPI and St. Cloud still wins 58 comparisons. Something is broken there.

            EDIT: Never mind, figured it out. ticapnews forget to put in a result for the NCHC third place game. SCSU can lose comparisons to Northeastern and Union.
            Last edited by The Exiled One; 03-19-2019, 02:12 PM.
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            • #21
              Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
              I got BG in unless: BU/'BC win out, or CC wins out. Otherwise I can't find a way BG is out.
              What if brown wins ecac and bg loses

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              • #22
                Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                Minnesota State #1 overall (meaning they'd be placed in Fargo)

                EDIT: Can someone explain to me how Northeastern can win the common opponent comparison with SCSU?
                Last edited by The Exiled One; 03-19-2019, 02:40 PM.
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                • #23
                  Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                  Originally posted by The Exiled One View Post
                  Minnesota State #1 overall (meaning they'd be placed in Fargo)

                  EDIT: Can someone explain to me how Northeastern can win the common opponent comparison with SCSU?
                  Northeastern beat St Cloud during the regular season so they would win the head to head comparison, right?

                  I can't find a scenario that puts Mankato ahead of St Cloud as the top overall seed.

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                  • #24
                    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                    Originally posted by ThePowerConference View Post
                    Northeastern beat St Cloud during the regular season so they would win the head to head comparison, right?

                    I can't find a scenario that puts Mankato ahead of St Cloud as the top overall seed.
                    Click on the link in my post. I think the USCHO predictor is broken. I don't think Northeastern can win the common opponent comparison.
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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by The Exiled One View Post
                      Click on the link in my post. I think the USCHO predictor is broken. I don't think Northeastern can win the common opponent comparison.
                      If you keep track of the records of the teams, the tie seems to propagate strangely, e.g. SCSU's record increases by multiple ties in some scenarios in which I give them a tie. Of course, it's possible that's a display bug, not a calculation bug, but I can't consistently duplicate those scenario results from USCHO, either.

                      I can consistently duplicate CHN's results by being willing to switch back and forth between counting the on campus championship games as home or neutral, but which I have to choose depends on the other set of games, and there's no obvious pattern. Makes me wonder about some sort of cache, but I can't figure it out.

                      I suppose either could be an issue of previous runs not completely resetting, but I worked pretty hard to start clean on my tests on CHN.
                      Last edited by JimDahl; 03-19-2019, 04:27 PM.

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                      • #26
                        Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                        Reading these thread makes one hope that whatever software the committee uses to pick the teams is bug free.
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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
                          Reading these thread makes one hope that whatever software the committee uses to pick the teams is bug free.
                          Was thinking the same thing

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                          • #28
                            Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                            NU shouldn't be able to pass St. Cloud as far as I know. The current common opponents are Union (both teams have a .000) and BC (SCSU had a 1.000, NU currently has a .667). SCSU did not play anybody else on NU's schedule.

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                            • #29
                              Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                              I've been poking at it for about a day, and still don't feel that all the issues are worked out. The calculators all give different results in important edge cases.

                              I'm not yet worried about the committee's calculations. Calculating PWR from a list of games is relatively easy, and I haven't seen a different result out of our three implementations (CHN, USCHO, and my own) since the last change in formula. So far, these errors are consistent with problems with the user interfaces that the sites use to allow users to specify some of the results in the lists of games. But, until we figure it out, that's just my best guess.

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                              • #30
                                Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

                                Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                                I've been poking at it for about a day, and still don't feel that all the issues are worked out. The calculators all give different results in important edge cases.

                                I'm not yet worried about the committee's calculations. Calculating PWR from a list of games is relatively easy, and I haven't seen a different result out of our three implementations (CHN, USCHO, and my own) since the last change in formula. So far, these errors are consistent with problems with the user interfaces that the sites use to allow users to specify some of the results in the lists of games. But, until we figure it out, that's just my best guess.
                                I'm not sure the USCHO is even trying to fix their predictor tool, which appears to be miscalculating the common opponents variable.



                                For the Sum of Win% column, I believe it should read 1.000 for both teams. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.
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