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Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

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  • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

    Originally posted by woodenskates View Post
    But it would be interesting to have the data on where the opponents shot from when a D man is on the ice? Does the particular D man give quality shot opportunities or does he force them out into the less dangerous zones? I understand that such a stat would involve the positional play of the whole team in their D zone, but it would be interesting to see how it varies from D man to D man.
    We could compare Cam York (1st round (14th overall/Philadelphia Flyers) - College: Michigan) and Ryan Johnson (1st round (31st overall/Buffalo Sabres) - College: Gophers) according to the Scouching rating system, the "mean" outcome variables used are:

    HDSATA - All high danger shot attempts against by team
    MDSATA - All medium danger shot attempts against by team
    LDSATA - All low danger shot attempts against by team

    HDSATA: York/3.57, Johnson/2.71
    MDSATA: York/3.43, Johnson/1.29
    LDSATA: York/6.14, Johnson/6.71

    In all danger shot attempts against by team, Ryan Johnson scored better than Cam York. The small differential in low danger shots (Johnson/+.57) which are typically from the blueline indicates that opponents were more likely to shoot from the perimeter when Ryan Johnson was on the ice.

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    • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

      Does anyone know how the scouching guy gets his data or what kinda sample he has (I haven't seen the spreadsheet you mention or where to find it)? I have a hard time imagining he's tracking these individual stats (at least by himself) for however many different players in however many different leagues for a large set of games but if he is, dude is a machine. I do find his work interesting though and I like how he ties video to data.
      Originally posted by SteveO View Post
      War on Ice (after two seasons the website was closed) was one of the first stat sites to really begin to break down their data into zones. They assigned each area of the ice a danger score of low, medium, or high. As a result, each player had a low danger shooting percentage, a medium danger one, and a high danger one. These are currently used in Corsica analysis of shot quality and expected goals. The original intent was to analyze saves from various zones. It can also be used to analyze a forward's shot quality, but to apply this analysis to defensemen seems redundant as most D would be shooting from a low danger area. In game time situations, the danger zone definitions as indicated below are arguably a bit subjective and arbitrary.

      Low Danger: less than 3.0%
      Medium Danger: Less than 9.0% and equal or greater than 3.0%
      High Danger: Equal or greater than 9.0%
      I think Micah of hockeyviz does that too but then averages it all out to say how much better +/- a Dman is at shot prevention/generation. That helps give a better overall picture than solely looking at high danger shots and ignoring every medium danger shot barely outside of that zone. Obviously that by itself only tells you so much, you still don't have pre-pass movement taken into account or how hard/accurate the shot was but it's one piece of the puzzle that helps our understanding of the game.
      Last edited by trixR4kids; 07-12-2019, 12:04 PM.

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      • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

        Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
        Does anyone know how the scouching guy gets his data or what kinda sample he has (I haven't seen the spreadsheet you mention or where to find it)? I have a hard time imagining he's tracking these individual stats (at least by himself) for however many different players in however many different leagues for a large set of games but if he is, dude is a machine. I do find his work interesting though and I like how he ties video to data.
        I think Micah of hockeyviz does that too but then averages it all out to say how much better +/- a Dman is at shot prevention/generation. That helps give a better overall picture than solely looking at high danger shots and ignoring every medium danger shot barely outside of that zone. Obviously that by itself only tells you so much, you still don't have pre-pass movement taken into account or how hard/accurate the shot was but it's one piece of the puzzle that helps our understanding of the game.
        That's the enigma with all sports statistics, there are often many factors that either can't be measured or are covariates and/or confounds embedded in the rating system. But as you said, it's a reasonable look at what might be happening provided the sample population is decent. But he didn't list how many games were reviewed or at what phase of the season the ratings were assessed. A player typically improves as the seasons progresses, so at which phase the data is gathered will affect the accuracy and reliability of the player's overall score. There's also the on-ice variance in an opponent's team offense/defense skill set that should be controlled for among other things.

        Here's the spreadsheet he's using in the video: DATA

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        • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

          Gotcha thanks, that’s why it’s nice to see people coming up with WAR models and trying to avoid cherry picking of certain stats, weighting them properly, and doing as much as possible to avoid double counting.

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          • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

            Some very nice improvements, but no mention of reducing rink size.

            https://gophersports.com/news/2019/7...gn=GopherDaily
            Minnesota Golden Gopher Hockey

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            • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

              This may have been discussed earlier and I missed it BUT, How stupid is it to schedule a college hockey game on Thanksgiving evening? Yes I understand there is a Football game on Saturday but what was wrong with Friday Sunday or Wednesday Friday. After 39 years as a season ticket holder that was the straw after the last straw, raising the extortion fees. I don't care if it is North Dakota, they may not get as many fans as they had for the B1G playoff games last spring. Good Bye and Good Luck!
              4 & 20 The All-American Sister's
              SNC 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014, & 2018 Mens DIII NCAA Champions & they have Women's Hockey

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              • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

                Originally posted by 4and20 View Post
                This may have been discussed earlier and I missed it BUT, How stupid is it to schedule a college hockey game on Thanksgiving evening? Yes I understand there is a Football game on Saturday but what was wrong with Friday Sunday or Wednesday Friday. After 39 years as a season ticket holder that was the straw after the last straw, raising the extortion fees. I don't care if it is North Dakota, they may not get as many fans as they had for the B1G playoff games last spring. Good Bye and Good Luck!
                Thanksgiving evening aside, I LOVE the upcoming season's schedule. One disappointing nitpick surely does not justify non-renewing your season ticket!
                Minnesota Golden Gopher Hockey

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                • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

                  Originally posted by 4and20 View Post
                  This may have been discussed earlier and I missed it BUT, How stupid is it to schedule a college hockey game on Thanksgiving evening? Yes I understand there is a Football game on Saturday but what was wrong with Friday Sunday or Wednesday Friday. After 39 years as a season ticket holder that was the straw after the last straw, raising the extortion fees. I don't care if it is North Dakota, they may not get as many fans as they had for the B1G playoff games last spring. Good Bye and Good Luck!
                  Arguably the Thanksgiving clash is unconventional in college hockey. However, scheduling a game with the Wioux on Thanksgiving is not as reprehensible as you propose. With conflicting sporting events, on-campus schedule adjustments are a necessary means of crowd control.

                  It's a matter of perception. The NFL has been scheduling games on Thanksgiving for decades and lots of people annually incorporate the game time experience into their Thanksgiving holiday fun. Sitting round watching NFL football at home after a big meal may have become sacred to some, but there are other options. Why not do something different this year and bring your family to the game, have some fun and support Gopher hockey? If I was available, I'd grab some family and friends, have a couple beers and enjoy one of the most exciting rivalries in all of college hockey history.

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                  • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

                    I don't think the TGD game was a cash grab at all - I think they had very little choice.

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                    • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

                      Originally posted by D2D View Post
                      Thanksgiving evening aside, I LOVE the upcoming season's schedule. One disappointing nitpick surely does not justify non-renewing your season ticket!
                      It's definitely much better than last season's start with UMD followed by two weeks of exhibitions. This season's schedule has only one back-to-back Away series too, compared to two last season. It's been three seasons since the Gophers were above .500 on the road.

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                      • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

                        Originally posted by D2D View Post
                        Some very nice improvements, but no mention of reducing rink size.

                        https://gophersports.com/news/2019/7...gn=GopherDaily
                        They need to reduce the rink size and add more seats.
                        Slap Shot - 444 might want to consider a restraining order.
                        dggoddard - Minnesota is THE ELITE Program in all of college hockey.
                        wasmania - you have to be the very best to get ice time with the great gophers!

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                        • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

                          Originally posted by 4four4 View Post
                          They need to reduce the rink size and add more seats.
                          My understanding is that this is the long-term plan, but the funding is not there yet. Anyone know what the approximate cost is projected to be?
                          Minnesota Golden Gopher Hockey

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                          • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

                            Originally posted by D2D View Post
                            My understanding is that this is the long-term plan, but the funding is not there yet. Anyone know what the approximate cost is projected to be?
                            I'm gonna say $2M+. Lucia thought if they did shrink it, it would be a hybrid.

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                            • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

                              Originally posted by SteveO View Post
                              I'm gonna say $2M+. Lucia thought if they did shrink it, it would be a hybrid.
                              My understanding is that shrinking it to a regular NHL 200 x 85 ice surface is simply not in the cards, mainly due to cost, so a hybrid sheet something like 200 x 90, is the only realistic option. But I have heard nothing about the estimated cost to implement the new ice surface (and required seating configuration) but I'm beginning to get the impression that no specific timetable has yet been set, likely due to funding considerations.
                              Minnesota Golden Gopher Hockey

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                              • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-2019: Fire Motzko

                                Originally posted by D2D View Post
                                My understanding is that shrinking it to a regular NHL 200 x 85 ice surface is simply not in the cards, mainly due to cost, so a hybrid sheet something like 200 x 90, is the only realistic option. But I have heard nothing about the estimated cost to implement the new ice surface (and required seating configuration) but I'm beginning to get the impression that no specific timetable has yet been set, likely due to funding considerations.
                                Agreed D2D, with the decline in ticket revenue there simply isn't a budget surplus for any serious renovations to the ice surface in the immediate future. New boards, glass, floor surface replacement, refrigeration alterations, and new seating is an expensive investment, but there's no money in program cookie jar for such a project at this time. The hybrid surface is most likely a compromise based upon the fact it would be much more costly to reduce to an NHL ice surface.

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