Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Hockey East Playoff Picture

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Hockey East Playoff Picture

    With the Hockey East season 2/3 complete (give or take a game) the home stretch is upon us. The Playoff picture is nowhere near being settled, but I figured I'd steal this from freak's women's hockey east playoff picture, I know someone usually starts one of these around now, so I figured I'd take a peek... not sure how accurate the numbers are, but they're pretty close...

    --- #1 Seed Lock - 41 (Can't be caught by #2) ---
    --- home ice Lock - 38 (Can't be caught by #5) ---
    Team current points-max points [range of finish]
    UNH 27 - 45 [1-9]
    BC 22 - 40 [1-10]
    Maine 20-40 [1-10]
    UMA 22-38 [1-10]
    UML 18 - 38 [1-10]
    UVM 15 - 35[1-10]
    BU 16 - 34 [1-10]
    MC 12-34 [1-10]
    NU 15 - 33 [1-10]
    PC 9-27 [2-10]
    --- In - 34 (Can't be caught by bottom 2) ---

    UNH - 09 pts lost; 9 games remaining
    BC - 14 pts lost; 9 games remaining
    Maine - 14 pts lost; 10 games remaining
    UMA - 16 pts lost; 8 games remaining
    UML - 16 pts lost; 10 games remaining
    UVM - 19 pts lost; 10 games remaining
    BU - 20 pts lost; 9 games remaining
    MC - 20 pts lost; 11 games remaining
    NU - 21 pts lost; 9 games remaining
    PC - 27 pts lost; 9 games remaining

  • #2
    Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

    A better way to look at who's "in" for the Hockey East playoffs is to look at previous seasons and see how many points teams have needed since UVM came on board to be safe.

    08-09: 14
    07-08: 22
    06-07: 19
    05-06: 14

    It really has fluctuated pretty wildly. Last season Maine had fewer points than they did in 07-08, when they missed the playoffs, but they snuck in with 17 points. It mostly depends on if there's a real solid race at the top. In 07-08, UNH ran away with the regular season crown, meaning there were more points at the bottom.

    This year looks similar to 07-08. In fact, with the current cut-off for being "in" at 13 points already, we're looking at a final cut-off closer to the 19-22 range of '07 and '08. In that light, we could say with certainty that UNH, BC, and UMass are all definitely in the playoffs - they could all lose out and still make the field - while Maine and UML are basically locks. That leaves 5 teams fighting for 3 slots.
    Keep an open mind. Just don't be so open-minded that your brain falls out.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

      Although I enjoy it, this thread often gives me a headache.
      I haven't been on here in a year...
      Now I'm a dad. Holy crap.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

        Originally posted by unhpuckfan2001 View Post
        Although I enjoy it, this thread often gives me a headache.
        Agree... congrats to UNH for not finishing last though... don't worry PC, you'll get it next year.
        Let's go Terriers!

        It hasn't taken me long to realize, everybody here knows a lot more than me about college hockey...

        1971, 1972, 1978, 1995, 2009

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

          Bottom five fight will be interesting. PC is pretty much done. Win all your home games and steal just one on the road and you're in.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

            Originally posted by quiddlet View Post
            . don't worry PC, you'll get it next year.
            What are you basing that on?

            "I have come up with a plan so cunning you could stick a tail on it and call it a weasel. ."
            -Blackadder
            "I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here. "
            -Casablanca
            "They could maybe hire another officer to catch the illegal immigrant drug dealers breast feeding at Dunkin' Donuts or whatever it is! Thank you!"
            -Somerville Speakout

            2008 POTY

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

              http://siouxsports.com/hockey/whatif/index.php?confid=5
              Team GP Pts
              New Hampshire 27 40
              Boston College 27 34
              Massachusetts 27 31
              Maine 27 31
              Mass.-Lowell 27 27
              Vermont 27 26
              Boston University 27 25
              Merrimack 27 22
              Northeastern 27 20
              Providence 27 14

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

                Originally posted by Jon View Post
                What are you basing that on?
                Sarcasm... :/
                Let's go Terriers!

                It hasn't taken me long to realize, everybody here knows a lot more than me about college hockey...

                1971, 1972, 1978, 1995, 2009

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

                  Originally posted by Jon View Post
                  What are you basing that on?
                  It also depends on what his definition of 'it' is.
                  time to write new history

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

                    Originally posted by Gibber View Post
                    http://siouxsports.com/hockey/whatif/index.php?confid=5
                    Team GP Pts
                    New Hampshire 27 40
                    Boston College 27 34
                    Massachusetts 27 31
                    Maine 27 31
                    Mass.-Lowell 27 27
                    Vermont 27 26
                    Boston University 27 25
                    Merrimack 27 22
                    Northeastern 27 20
                    Providence 27 14
                    Places I've seen a college hockey game: Agganis Arena, Alfond Arena, Bright Center, Consol Energy Center, Conte Forum, DCU Center, Fenway Park, Gutterson Fieldhouse, Houston Field House, Lawler Arena, Madison Square Garden, Matthews Arena, Mullins Center, Schneider Arena, Scottrade Center, Sears Centre, Tampa Bay Times Forum, TD Bank Sports Center, TD Garden, Tsongas Center, Tully Forum, Verizon Center, Verizon Wireless Arena, Walter Brown Arena, Wells Fargo Center, Whittemore Center

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

                      1 UNH (41)
                      2 BC (34)
                      3 UMA (30)
                      Maine (30)
                      UML (30)
                      6 BU (24)
                      MC (24)
                      8 UVM (23)
                      9 NU (19)
                      10 PC (15)

                      I did the calculator on Sioux Sports. BU wins tiebreaker over MC. Not sure about 3 way tie for 3rd.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

                        Originally posted by quiddlet View Post
                        Sarcasm... :/
                        Good a method as any!

                        "I have come up with a plan so cunning you could stick a tail on it and call it a weasel. ."
                        -Blackadder
                        "I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here. "
                        -Casablanca
                        "They could maybe hire another officer to catch the illegal immigrant drug dealers breast feeding at Dunkin' Donuts or whatever it is! Thank you!"
                        -Somerville Speakout

                        2008 POTY

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

                          Originally posted by WildShawn View Post
                          --- #1 Seed Lock - 41 (Can't be caught by #2) ---
                          --- home ice Lock - 38 (Can't be caught by #5) ---
                          Team current points-max points [range of finish]
                          UNH 27 - 45 [1-9]
                          BC 22 - 40 [1-10]
                          Maine 20-40 [1-10]
                          UMA 22-38 [1-10]
                          UML 18 - 38 [1-10]
                          UVM 15 - 35[1-10]
                          BU 16 - 34 [1-10]
                          MC 12-34 [1-10]
                          NU 15 - 33 [1-10]
                          PC 9-27 [2-10]
                          --- In - 34 (Can't be caught by bottom 2) ---
                          Remember these numbers aren't exacty the lines. I think this normally starts in about 3 weeks when almost everybody has the same number of games left. Even then the interconnectivity isn't examined until the last two weeks it is just too much of a pain to track.

                          For example Looking at just the top 5:
                          UNH plays - Maine X2, BC X2
                          BC plays - UNH X2, UMA X2 and UML X2
                          Maine plays - UNH X2, UML X2 and UMA X2.
                          Umass plays - BC X2 and Maine X2
                          Lowell plays - Maine X2, BC X2

                          Even if you assume these 5 win all games against the other 5 (huge assumption) then pick the higher winning % team between these teams you get:

                          UNH - 45
                          BC - 36
                          Maine - 36
                          UMA - 30
                          UML - 30

                          So in this senerio with home ice line is actually 30. The combinations are nearly endless at this point. There are a max of 94 points left up for grabs.

                          Some other interesting numbers:

                          Road in Opponents winning % HE games and records only -
                          BU - 43.6%
                          UML - 46.0%
                          UVM - 47.0%
                          MC - 47.9%
                          PC - 48.1%
                          UNH - 48.5%
                          UMA - 49.8%
                          Maine - 53.6%
                          BC - 54.7%
                          NU- 57.2%

                          This makes sense with the 5 teams better than .500% only matching up in 24 of the 94 remaining games.

                          Everybody but UMA, UVM and Maine are either 1 more road than home or vice versa. UMA has only 3 home and 5 road games left, including closing the year 3 on the road. UVM has 4 home vs 6 road and Maine has a nice 6 home vs 4 road.

                          MC looks in good shape to get in, 3 points back of 8th but 2 games in hand. Also there road in is far easier than Northeastern and they play 6 of there last 11 at home where they are hard to beat. Add to that Northeastern is on the road 5 of 9 and I think MC gets in as atleast the 8 seed. If MC keeps up there current MO of win at home with losses on the road they finish at 24 points.
                          Last edited by JB; 02-01-2010, 03:47 PM.
                          "Now Progress Takes Away What Forever Took To Find" Dave Matthews Band, The Dreaming Tree

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

                            Originally posted by JB View Post
                            Some other interesting numbers:

                            Road in Opponents winning % HE games and records only -
                            BU - 43.6%
                            UML - 46.0%
                            UVM - 47.0%
                            MC - 47.9%
                            PU - 48.1%
                            UNH - 48.5%
                            UMA - 49.8%
                            Maine - 53.6%
                            BC - 54.7%
                            NU- 57.2%
                            JB as always some good number crunching!... I'm not sure what these numbers are/mean... there is way too much still up in the air though, and a lot of matchups amongst the top teams will mix things up a lot between now and the playoffs..

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Hockey East Playoff Picture

                              Originally posted by Gibber View Post
                              JB as always some good number crunching!... I'm not sure what these numbers are/mean... there is way too much still up in the air though, and a lot of matchups amongst the top teams will mix things up a lot between now and the playoffs..
                              The road in numbers are the composite record of remaining opponents. I only used in league records. Take the winning % of all remaining opponents and averaging. This says that BU has the easiest road in with their average opponent only winning 43.6% of the time in league. This makes sense with BU playing 6 of there last 9 against PU, UVM and NU or teams 7,8 and 10 in league.

                              For several years I have been playing with a better way to predict the end of season records and understand when things are locked in for a certain team. This type of remain schedule information is "free" based on the other stuff I am looking at. One of these days I will actually come-up with something useful. I really only work on it for a couple hours per year and hence nothing gets advanced. One of these days if I get the motivation I will write a computer program to spit out the data instead of doing it by hand with tables.
                              Last edited by JB; 02-01-2010, 02:55 PM.
                              "Now Progress Takes Away What Forever Took To Find" Dave Matthews Band, The Dreaming Tree

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X