UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

[Snively65]

UM and NU are problematic draws because both represent high-powered offenses. Their up-tempo and quick-strike approaches mirror UNH's, which means they can both play their game and they're better at said game...

UML and PC are more likely to keep the score down, based on the stylistic match-up, keeping UNH in the game. They score thru hard-work as much as skill. Especially PC who is very Hoosiers-like (five passes/put in the work before you score) in their offensive approach. Those two teams represent UNH's best chances to advance, although odds will still be against them.

UNH GF/GA vs...

UM - 3/9
NU - 3/12
UML - 2/2
PC - 2/4

Interesting take. Let us see how the GF/GA plays out for UML and NU in the last three RS games.

[e.cat]

Wasn't necessarily saying TT "spit the bit" in Saturday's games, but merely remarking that he had several opportunities to lay a claim for more playing time during the season, and he never quite managed to grasp those opportunities. The pattern wasn't all that different the last few years during Tirone's reign, when first Clark, and then last year Robinson didn't make the most of their opportunities. The only difference, it seems, is that Souza seemed to give TT more chances than Umile gave DT's back-ups. For example, there's no way DU would have started TT in last Saturday night's game. Souza did. And I think Souza made a good call, regardless of how it turned out.

I didn't look at the SOG's for Saturday night's game, but if you're telling me that UNH held NU to less than ten (10) over the first two periods before the deluge in the 3rd, all that tells me is that NU has one or two additional gears in their gearbox that UNH just doesn't have. Yet, anyway.

After the developments of the last couple of weekends, a first round match-up with UMass doesn't seem so awful after all. There's an argument to be made that of the top four teams (and let's say that's UMA, UML, PC and NU, in no particular order), UMA has far less postseason experience than any of them. Maybe UNH goes out there with a game plan, a relatively inexperienced UMA team can't shake them, one or two bounces go in UNH's direction, and then self-doubt begins to creep into the Minutemen's mindset? If any program can talk to the issue of RS talent not translating into postseason success, it's UNH. We've seen the blueprint. And it usually doesn't happen by accident. Time will tell if UMA turns out to be the real thing or not, but if I'm UNH, I want a piece of that challenge, every day of the week, and twice on Sundays. Now that we're unlikely to see BC and/or BU, UMA is at the top of my UNH to-do list.

Nah! Not now! Maybe next year!

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

UM and NU are problematic draws because both represent high-powered offenses. Their up-tempo and quick-strike approaches mirror UNH's, which means they can both play their game and they're better at said game...

UML and PC are more likely to keep the score down, based on the stylistic match-up, keeping UNH in the game. They score thru hard-work as much as skill. Especially PC who is very Hoosiers-like (five passes/put in the work before you score) in their offensive approach. Those two teams represent UNH's best chances to advance, although odds will still be against them.

UNH GF/GA vs...

UM - 3/9
NU - 3/12
UML - 2/2
PC - 2/4

You've used the playing styles of the teams and their respective records against UNH to date, and I've leaned on postseason experience (or lack thereof) as part of my assessment. One thing neither of us has mentioned to date is motivation. Looking at HockeyEast's latest version of the "Big Four" - and how ironic is it BTW that the classic "Big Four" of yesteryear currently occupy slots 5 thru 8 - consider this:

* UMass Amherst - best overall record by a comfortable margin, and sitting high in the PWR and the polls. They will be playing in the NCAA's no matter what happens over the next four weekends - even if they don't advance to the Garden. It could be a tough job for Coach Carvel to keep his guys motivated if they're looking too far down the road. This was a common excuse we saw trotted out when a certain program near and dear to our hearts would stumble down the stretch, or not make it to Boston;

* Providence - currently placed in the middle of a projected 16 team NCAA Tourney field, and can point to 5 wins in the last month over teams in this specific group (5-0-0), including sweeps of UML and Northeastern. However, they can't afford to ease up down the stretch, and could end up on the tourney "bubble" if they get sloppy at home over the next two weekends, and get tripped up in the HE QF's. Should be fine, so long as they get to Boston. So they have plenty of reasons to be motivated;

* Northeastern - like Providence, currently floating around in the middle of the projected NCAA Tourney field, but unlike PC, in a five-game stretch last month against teams in this group, they only went 1-4-0. Maybe they were focusing too early on their (successful) defense of the Beanpot, but the only blemish on their record this month was an almost-predictable, let-your-guard-down loss in between Beanpot Mondays to Luce Canaan's Faux Huskies. Because of the possibility of surprises in the various conference tourneys, like PC, they can't afford to coast. Should have enough in the tank to get to Boston, and at least maintain their current NCAA tourney positioning;

* UMass Lowell - right now, they're looking to be the "bubble" team of the four in this group, hovering at or around the magic 16 seed. They have three must-win (or maybe must-not-lose) games against two teams (UNH and UVM) who really aren't playing for anything at this stage of the season - UNH being pretty locked in at 8, or maybe 7th, and UVM being out - but more than the rest of this group, UML will not only need to get to Boston, they'll probably need to get to the HE Finals just to make sure. They'd been the hottest team in the league until Providence sidetracked them two weekends back with a sweep. They will be plenty motivated for the HE Tourney, and my money is on Bazin getting his team into the big tourney when all is said and done.

Let's be clear … I don't expect UNH to beat any of these four teams in the HE QF's. But going to the WIS oddsmakers, they've set UNH's chances to prevail against any of these four teams as follows:

* UMass Amherst - UNH has a 20% chance of pulling an upset against an inexperienced foe;
* Northeastern - UNH has a 15% chance of the Huskies being fatally overconfident;
* UMass Lowell - UNH has a 10% chance of the Riverhawks going cold at the wrong time;
* Providence - UNH has a 5% chance of the Friars being wracked with injuries/illness

Providence will win the HE Tourney (I give Northeastern a decent chance). All four teams will make the NCAA Tourney, and on a "down year" for HE, I predict only one (not UMass, BTW) to make it to the FF.

[chickod]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

All four teams will make the NCAA Tourney, and on a "down year" for HE, I predict only one (not UMass, BTW) to make it to the FF.

Not sure about the "down year" part. I think that's a perception because none of the "Big Four" (as you mentioned) are at the top of the standings. But remember, there are still four HE teams in the top 16 in the PWR.

[After the Whistle]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

Not sure about the "down year" part. I think that's a perception because none of the "Big Four" (as you mentioned) are at the top of the standings. But remember, there are still four HE teams in the top 16 in the PWR.

You know what? I think you are on to something. Solid goaltending in the top 4(and beyond) and a couple of very good players, but mostly the league lacks real "Hobey" types with big numbers.

[Greg Ambrose]

Not sure about the "down year" part. I think that's a perception because none of the "Big Four" (as you mentioned) are at the top of the standings. But remember, there are still four HE teams in the top 16 in the PWR.

The league’s overall OOC isn’t that good, especially BC and BU, but the top four aren’t bad. Early in the season I wasn’t sure about the quality but, at this point. I can see Northeastern and Lowell making noise. I’m a bit hesitant about PC because they don’t score a lot and UMass because it will be their first time.

[Ray Dorn]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

JvR scored another goal last night! He may be one of the most underappreciated and underutilized players that wore the UNH jersey.

I would like to thank Chickod and Greg Ambrose for responding to my Ryan Donato post from a couple of days ago. Donato had two assists last night in another Minnesota Wild victory. He has now played in four games for Minnesota with them all being victories. Ryan now has six points in those four games. Not bad for a guy who the Boston Bruins didn't think was worthy in their line-up. He may not be the best defensive player in the NHL, but Wayne Gretzky wasn't either. Some how Gretzky is perceived as one of the best hockey players ever!!!

[Snively65]

JvR scored another goal last night! He may be one of the most underappreciated and underutilized players that wore the UNH jersey.

I would like to thank Chickod and Greg Ambrose for responding to my Ryan Donato post from a couple of days ago. Donato had two assists last night in another Minnesota Wild victory. He has now played in four games for Minnesota with them all being victories. Ryan now has six points in those four games. Not bad for a guy who the Boston Bruins didn't think was worthy in their line-up. He may not be the best defensive player in the NHL, but Wayne Gretzky wasn't either. Some how Gretzky is perceived as one of the best hockey players ever!!!

And, CC no SOG in his first and only B's game; what say you, e.cat?

[e.cat]

and, cc no sog in his first and only b's game; what say you, e.cat?

cc????

[Greg Ambrose]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

JvR scored another goal last night! He may be one of the most underappreciated and underutilized players that wore the UNH jersey.

I would like to thank Chickod and Greg Ambrose for responding to my Ryan Donato post from a couple of days ago. Donato had two assists last night in another Minnesota Wild victory. He has now played in four games for Minnesota with them all being victories. Ryan now has six points in those four games. Not bad for a guy who the Boston Bruins didn't think was worthy in their line-up. He may not be the best defensive player in the NHL, but Wayne Gretzky wasn't either. Some how Gretzky is perceived as one of the best hockey players ever!!!

I hope you're not comparing Ryan Donato to the Great One, because he's not. Look, he's had a good start and maybe getting away from Boston will be the best thing for him. Could be. And maybe Charlie Coyle (hence the CC ecat) will flame out because he's a Boston guy. We'll see. One week does not make a season, let alone a career.

[e.cat]

I hope you're not comparing Ryan Donato to the Great One, because he's not. Look, he's had a good start and maybe getting away from Boston will be the best thing for him. Could be. And maybe Charlie Coyle (hence the CC ecat) will flame out because he's a Boston guy. We'll see. One week does not make a season, let alone a career.

Yeah, the only CC I could think of was Charlie Coyle but Snives reference about CC didn't fit the narrative. I looked at the box score of the game and Coyle wasn't listed. Go figure! !

[bakchk20]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

The league’s overall OOC isn’t that good, especially BC and BU, but the top four aren’t bad. Early in the season I wasn’t sure about the quality but, at this point. I can see Northeastern and Lowell making noise. I’m a bit hesitant about PC because they don’t score a lot and UMass because it will be their first time.

Greg - thinking you can get comfortable with PC going far, at least in conference; 2nd in HE scoring/pg, 1 in goals against/pg, on a sweet roll to close out the regular season, proving they can beat anyone. I'll put money on them...well...if it was legal!

[Snively65]

Yeah, the only CC I could think of was Charlie Coyle but Snives reference about CC didn't fit the narrative. I looked at the box score of the game and Coyle wasn't listed. Go figure! !

I thought that my reference to the narrative was a fast ball right over the middle of the plate, e.cat. Charlie Coyle did not log a SOG in his first game with the B's, in contrast with Ted's kid scoring up a storm in his first few games with the Wild. And, all things SOG begin and end with e.cat. :-)

Edit: CC logged his first two SOG as a Bruin against Lightning on Thursday night. :-)

[e.cat]

I thought that my reference to the narrative was a fast ball right over the middle of the plate, e.cat. Charlie Coyle did not log a SOG in his first game with the B's, in contrast with Ted's kid scoring up a storm in his first few games with the Wild. And, all things SOG begin and end with e.cat. :-)

Edit: CC logged his first two SOG as a Bruin against Lightning on Thursday night. :-)

Well, good pitching beats good hitting 70% of the time!
CC also had a sweet shootout goal! I personally like the trade. I'm not that enamored with Donato anyway!

[Greg Ambrose]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

Greg - thinking you can get comfortable with PC going far, at least in conference; 2nd in HE scoring/pg, 1 in goals against/pg, on a sweet roll to close out the regular season, proving they can beat anyone. I'll put money on them...well...if it was legal!

I watched portions of the BU-PC game last night (Bruins-Lightning were way more important) and, at home, playoff seeding on the line, against a meh team, they couldn't score until midway through the third period. I know they own the tie breakers with Lowell and Northeastern, and I have a lot of respect for Leaman as a coach, but I just don't see them going far once we get to the NCAAs. Appears that Hawkey is a major, major factor in their success, yes?