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ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

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  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    I really dislike every team left, but I'm going to pull for maximum chaos and a Brown title.

    Summary:
    Code:
          KRACH |    SF     F
    Cr |  236.2 |  65.8  33.2
    Ck |  241.5 |  52.1  29.1
    Ha |  222.3 |  47.9  25.9
    Br |  122.5 |  34.2  11.8
    Finals Matchups:
    Code:
      F|    Ck    Ha    Br
    Cr |  34.3  31.5      
    Ck |              17.8
    Ha |              16.4

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Mid-weekend update. We have a new favorite!

    Summary:
    Code:
          KRACH |    QF    SF     F
    Qu |  316.0 |  54.5  34.8  20.8
    Cr |  209.4 |  29.6  16.6   7.8
    Ck |  229.1 |  89.1  51.4  26.3
    Ha |  212.1 |  93.1  46.9  23.6
    Da |   76.3 |   6.9   1.9   0.5
    Ya |  113.2 |  10.9   3.9   1.4
    Un |  175.6 |  70.4  29.2  13.9
    Br |  112.6 |  45.5  15.3   5.7
    Future Round Matchups:
    Code:
     SF|    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br
    Qu |        13.3   1.0   1.8  38.4      
    Cr |  14.4   1.7   0.1              13.5
    Ck |        43.0   3.2              28.5
    Ha |                     5.3  26.6   3.2
    Da |                     0.4   2.0   0.2
    Ya |                           3.5      
    
      F|    Cr    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br 
    Qu |   4.9  16.4  12.1   0.5   1.0            
    Cr |         4.2   6.6   0.3   0.6            
    Ck |              12.5   0.5        15.5   2.2
    Ha |                           1.1   7.6   7.0
    Da |                           0.0   0.3   0.3
    Ya |                                 0.5   0.7
    Un |                                       5.2
    
    0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
    x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
    Blanks denote impossible outcomes.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Dartmouth emphatically shut down SLU yesterday, putting an end to a fairly uninteresting first round. As we would expect, all four home teams are predicted to advance, though Cornell is only a 5-in-8 favorite thanks to their unlucky draw of Union. As such, there is about a 1-in-3 chance that all four series once again go chalk. Looking forward, Quinnipiac is still about a 40% favorite to win the Whitelaw.

    Summary:
    Code:
          KRACH |    QF    SF     F
    Qu |  354.7 |  87.4  60.4  38.1
    Cr |  228.0 |  62.5  34.2  15.9
    Ck |  218.0 |  71.7  37.8  17.1
    Ha |  203.0 |  81.0  36.9  17.0
    Da |   78.8 |  19.0   4.8   1.2
    Ya |  118.2 |  28.3   9.2   3.2
    Un |  162.5 |  37.5  12.7   6.0
    Br |  101.1 |  12.6   4.0   1.5
    Future Round Matchups:
    Code:
                     
     SF|    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br 
    Qu |        31.7   7.5  15.5  32.8      
    Cr |  39.1  12.6   2.9               7.9
    Ck |        23.6   5.5               3.4
    Ha |                     9.3   2.7   1.1
    Da |                     2.2   0.7   0.3
    Ya |                           1.3      
    
    
      F|    Cr    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br 
    Qu |  20.1  21.9  14.0   1.9   2.6            
    Cr |         2.2   8.2   1.0   2.8            
    Ck |               6.7   0.8         5.3   1.0
    Ha |                           1.8   4.8   1.5
    Da |                           0.2   0.7   0.2
    Ya |                                 1.2   0.5
    Un |                                       0.8
    
    0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
    x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
    Blanks denote impossible outcomes.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Game one is in the books and everything is going chalk so far. There's about a 2/3 chance that all four series do indeed go chalk, though not necessarily tonight. I guess I could calculate that pretty easily but I'm not gonna.

    Summary:
    Code:
          KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
    Qu |  353.3 |   100  90.5  63.1  39.7
    Cr |  227.5 |   100  66.9  36.5  16.8
    Ck |  217.4 |   100  71.6  37.4  16.9
    Ha |  203.6 |   100  78.7  35.3  16.2
    Da |   85.0 |  96.2  20.1   5.2   1.4
    Ya |  112.6 |  89.1  24.2   7.5   2.5
    Un |  157.4 |  93.8  34.5  11.4   5.2
    Br |   95.0 |  80.8  10.8   3.0   1.1
    Pr |   74.2 |  19.2   1.8   0.4   0.1
    Cg |   51.9 |   6.2   0.3   0.1   0.0
    RP |   55.3 |  10.9   0.6   0.1   0.0
    SL |   20.5 |   3.8   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Future Round Matchups:
    Code:
     QF|    Da    Ya    Un    Br    Pr    Cg    RP    SL 
    Qu |                    65.0  15.4   5.3  10.5   3.8
    Cr |              80.5  14.7   3.5   0.8   0.4      
    Ck |        85.8  13.0   1.0   0.2   0.0            
    Ha |  96.2   3.4   0.4   0.0   0.0                  
    
     SF|    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br    Pr    Cg    RP    SL 
    Qu |        34.0   8.6  13.9  30.1   3.1   0.6   0.1   0.0      
    Cr |  43.2  13.7   3.4   0.3   0.0   4.8   0.8   0.2   0.4   0.0
    Ck |        20.4   5.4   0.1   0.0   2.0   0.3   0.0   0.1   0.0
    Ha |                     7.0   2.7   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Da |                     1.9   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0      
    Ya |                           0.9   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0
    Un |                                 0.0   0.0         0.0     x
    Br |                                             0.0     x     x
    Pr |                                             0.0     x     x
    Cg |                                                     x     x
    
      F|    Cr    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br    Pr    Cg    RP    SL 
    Qu |  22.3  22.6  13.5   2.1   2.2   0.4   0.0   0.0     x            
    Cr |         1.8   8.2   1.1   2.3   0.7   0.0   0.0   0.0            
    Ck |               6.8   1.0   0.1   4.1   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Ha |                           1.4   4.1   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Da |                           0.2   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0      
    Ya |                                 0.9   0.3   0.0   0.0         0.0
    Un |                                       0.5   0.1         0.0   0.0
    Br |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Pr |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Cg |                                                         0.0     x
    RP |                                                                 x
    
    0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
    x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
    Blanks denote impossible outcomes.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    The regular season is over, but this thread isn't!

    It's time for playoffs! In the first round, all four top seeds are favored, though Brown-Princeton is basically a toss-up. Moving forward, Union is the only non-bye team that is likely to threaten their quarterfinal opponent. Quinnipiac has 3:2 odds to win the tournament and will likely have a relatively easy road to the semis. The other three bye teams all have basically even odds to join Quinnipiac in the final. All of that said, there's a reason we play the games. Let's see what happens!

    Summary:
    Code:
          KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
    Qu |  355.8 |   100  92.9  65.3  41.1
    Cr |  226.9 |   100  73.6  39.9  18.2
    Ck |  218.7 |   100  72.3  37.4  16.7
    Ha |  202.9 |   100  78.8  34.4  15.8
    Da |   82.3 |  89.0  17.9   4.4   1.2
    Ya |  106.5 |  71.8  18.2   5.3   1.7
    Un |  151.2 |  82.9  29.6   9.7   4.2
    Br |   87.8 |  53.5   7.8   1.8   0.6
    Pr |   79.9 |  46.5   5.9   1.3   0.4
    Cg |   54.0 |  17.1   1.1   0.2   0.0
    RP |   57.4 |  28.2   1.7   0.3   0.1
    SL |   21.4 |  11.0   0.1   0.0   0.0
    Future Round Matchups:
    Code:
     QF|    Da    Ya    Un    Br    Pr    Cg    RP    SL 
    Qu |                    28.4  24.6  10.9  25.1  11.0
    Cr |              53.0  20.5  17.8   5.6   3.1      
    Ck |        63.9  27.4   4.4   3.8   0.5            
    Ha |  89.0   7.9   2.6   0.3   0.3                  
    
     SF|    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br    Pr    Cg    RP    SL 
    Qu |        38.9   8.6  11.2  25.4   4.5   3.5   0.6   0.3      
    Cr |  49.5  15.1   3.3   0.6   0.2   1.9   1.4   0.4   1.1   0.1
    Ck |        16.9   4.0   0.2   0.1   0.8   0.6   0.1   0.1   0.0
    Ha |                     4.5   2.7   0.4   0.3   0.0   0.1   0.0
    Da |                     1.1   0.6   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0      
    Ya |                           0.6   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0
    Un |                                 0.1   0.0         0.0   0.0
    Br |                                             0.0   0.0     x
    Pr |                                             0.0   0.0     x
    Cg |                                                     x     x
    
      F|    Cr    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br    Pr    Cg    RP    SL 
    Qu |  25.0  23.6  12.7   1.7   1.5   0.7   0.0   0.0   0.0            
    Cr |         1.5   8.8   1.0   1.7   1.6   0.1   0.1   0.0           
    Ck |               7.5   0.9   0.1   2.7   0.5   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.0
    Ha |                           1.0   3.1   0.7   0.5   0.1   0.1   0.0
    Da |                           0.1   0.5   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0      
    Ya |                                 0.5   0.1   0.1   0.0         0.0
    Un |                                       0.3   0.2         0.1   0.0
    Br |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Pr |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Cg |                                                         0.0     x
    RP |                                                               0.0
    
    0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
    x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
    Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
    NOTE: I think I blanked out all of the right values, but I might have screwed that one up.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Midweekend update. Everyone knows whether they're staying home or heading on the road next week, but basically nothing else is set. What fun!

    Simulated Final Standings (EXHAUSTIVE search of 729 possibilities):
    1. Cornell
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Harvard
    4. Clarkson
      —————
    5. Yale
    6. Brown
    7. Dartmouth
    8. Union
      —————
    9. Colgate
    10. RPI
    11. Princeton
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  228.2 |  50.2  15.5  16.6  17.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.02 | 30.02
    Qu |  345.0 |  28.8  43.3  19.4   8.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.08 | 29.44
    Ha |  226.0 |  18.1  22.9  39.9  19.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.60 | 29.20
    Ck |  217.5 |   2.9  18.4  24.2  54.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.30 | 27.98
    Ya |  111.1 |     x     x     x     x  83.8  16.2     x     x     x     x     x     x |  5.16 | 23.56
    Br |   95.7 |     x     x     x     x     x  50.0  42.3   7.7     x     x     x     x |  6.58 | 22.11
    Da |   77.7 |     x     x     x     x  16.2  27.4  35.9  20.5     x     x     x     x |  6.61 | 22.10
    Un |  139.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   6.4  21.8  71.8     x     x     x     x |  7.65 | 20.80
    Cg |   60.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  83.5  13.2   3.3     x |  9.20 | 18.47
    RP |   61.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  10.3  44.0  45.7     x | 10.35 | 16.90
    Pr |   73.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.1  42.8  51.1     x | 10.45 | 16.89
    SL |   18.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x 100.0 | 12.00 |  6.53
    
       |  KRACH |     6     7     8   ...    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  228.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  42.2  13.4  44.3 | 30.02
    Qu |  345.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  21.1  13.5  65.5     x | 29.44
    Ha |  226.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  33.1  13.5  53.5     x | 29.20
    Ck |  217.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  44.3  13.4  42.2     x     x | 27.98
    Ya |  111.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  65.5  13.5  21.1     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.56
    Br |   95.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  37.6  13.5  48.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.11
    Da |   77.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  38.2  13.5  48.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.10
    Un |  139.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  53.5  13.5  33.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.80
    Cg |   60.7 |     x     x     x     x     x  20.0  13.5  66.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.47
    RP |   61.3 |     x     x     x     x  48.4  13.5  38.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.90
    Pr |   73.7 |     x     x     x     x  48.9  13.5  37.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.89
    SL |   18.2 |  66.6  13.5  20.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.53
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cg    RP    Pr    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------
    Ya |     x  16.2     x  83.8 |    NO
    Br |  10.8  16.7  72.5     x |    NO
    Da |  20.6  47.4  15.7  16.2 |    NO
    Un |  68.5  19.7  11.8     x |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

    Leave a comment:


  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
    It's entirely a factor of laziness and too much hard-coding. The issue is that teams can pop out of the tie and then you have to start over and instead of doing it by logic, I explicitly coded it out for three-way ties. One day I'll make it work for n-way ties, but today is not that day.
    I tried to find it on GitHub so I could put up a PR, but no such luck. I know you sent me a copy a while back; have to see if I can find it. Of course, you've probably made a lot of updates since then.

    Popping teams out of the tie isn't all that difficult; that's what recursion is for.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    BTW lugnut, it seems odd your app couldn't process 4 way ties but it could do 3... procedure's the same for both; wouldn't it be easier to pass in a list (or array, but IIRC you use python) of tied teams, instead of 3 variables?
    It's entirely a factor of laziness and too much hard-coding. The issue is that teams can pop out of the tie and then you have to start over and instead of doing it by logic, I explicitly coded it out for three-way ties. One day I'll make it work for n-way ties, but today is not that day.

    Leave a comment:


  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    BTW lugnut, it seems odd your app couldn't process 4 way ties but it could do 3... procedure's the same for both; wouldn't it be easier to pass in a list (or array, but IIRC you use python) of tied teams, instead of 3 variables?

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    Out of curiosity, what tiebreaks did you get Dartmouth in? I assume a three-way with Yale? CCT would take H/H on ECAC wins.
    Yeah, it's the three-way with Yale.

    Leave a comment:


  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
    That's what I had too. I'm pretty sure Brown is capped at 5th since they didn't do well against the teams near them, but I didn't try very hard to get them over.
    Brown's cap is 25. They would have to tie with CCT; Yale and/or Dartmouth could be involved.

    Brown took 0 points on Clarkson, 0 on Yale, and 4 on Dartmouth.
    Clarkson took 2 on Dartmouth, which would then place them above Brown on any sort of tiebreak (minimum of 6 points between tied teams).

    Out of curiosity, what tiebreaks did you get Dartmouth in? I assume a three-way with Yale? CCT would take H/H on ECAC wins.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    In a four way tie between Dartmouth, Brown, Colgate, and Union:

    Dartmouth would have 3-5 points (assume 3 points since they'd have to lose both games for this to happen)
    Brown has 9 points
    Colgate has 5 points
    Union would have 5-7 points (assume 7 for the same reasoning as before)

    That would indeed put Dartmouth in 9th.
    That's what I had too. I'm pretty sure Brown is capped at 5th since they didn't do well against the teams near them, but I didn't try very hard to get them over.

    Leave a comment:


  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    In a four way tie between Dartmouth, Brown, Colgate, and Union:

    Dartmouth would have 3-5 points (assume 3 points since they'd have to lose both games for this to happen)
    Brown has 9 points
    Colgate has 5 points
    Union would have 5-7 points (assume 7 for the same reasoning as before)

    That would indeed put Dartmouth in 9th.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Here we are, staring the final weekend of games in the face and almost nothing is set in stone (Sorry SLU). Three teams have a decent chance to take first overall, six teams could get a bye, eleven (!) teams could host in the first round, and conversely seven teams could be on the road. Let's see how it all plays out!

    NOTE: I'm pretty sure Dartmouth can still end up in ninth, it just requires a four-way tie with Brown, Colgate, and Union, and this sim doesn't do four-way ties. I'm not sure if Brown is definitely out of the byes, I didn't play around enough to see if I could get them in.

    Simulated Final Standings (EXHAUSTIVE search of 531,441 possibilities):
    1. Cornell
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Harvard
    4. Clarkson
      —————
    5. Yale
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Brown
    8. Union
      —————
    9. Colgate
    10. RPI
    11. Princeton
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  225.8 |  51.3  22.6  16.9   8.9   0.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.84 | 29.76
    Qu |  329.6 |  28.4  31.6  24.9  11.4   3.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.30 | 28.86
    Ha |  218.0 |  13.8  29.3  35.0  21.2   0.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.66 | 28.68
    Ck |  210.8 |   6.5  16.4  21.1  49.1   6.9   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.33 | 27.44
    Ya |  121.5 |   0.0   0.1   2.1   8.7  67.2  18.9   3.0     x     x     x     x     x |  5.12 | 24.85
    Da |   82.2 |     x     x     x   0.6  16.0  30.3  41.7  11.3     x     x     x     x |  6.47 | 22.90
    Br |   99.7 |     x     x     x     x   5.3  48.6  41.7   4.1   0.3     x     x     x |  6.46 | 22.71
    Un |  135.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   2.1  11.8  55.0  21.3   9.2   0.6     x |  8.25 | 20.01
    Cg |   62.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.8  22.2  58.2  16.9   0.9     x |  8.93 | 19.00
    RP |   63.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   7.4  18.8  58.3  15.4     x |  9.81 | 17.42
    Pr |   66.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   1.4  15.6  83.0     x | 10.82 | 15.58
    SL |   18.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x 100.0 | 12.00 |  6.79
    
       |  KRACH |     6     7     8     9    10   ...    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  225.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.7   6.5  38.2  16.8  35.8 | 29.76
    Qu |  329.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   4.7   5.8  30.0  17.4  42.0     x | 28.86
    Ha |  218.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.5   7.1  34.5  16.2  35.8     x | 28.68
    Ck |  210.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.9   8.7  40.0  14.6  27.9     x     x | 27.44
    Ya |  121.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  19.4  12.6  44.3  10.6  13.0     x     x     x     x | 24.85
    Da |   82.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  20.3  12.3  40.4  11.0  16.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.90
    Br |   99.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  23.1  13.6  43.2   9.7  10.4     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.71
    Un |  135.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  17.5  11.6  41.4  11.7  17.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.01
    Cg |   62.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  13.2  11.6  50.3  11.7  13.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.00
    RP |   63.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  32.7  15.6  36.6   7.7   7.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.42
    Pr |   66.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x  28.9  14.5  37.1   8.8  10.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.58
    SL |   18.5 |  53.4  19.7  22.0   3.5   1.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.79
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but is less than 0.05% likely to occur.
    x means the outcome never occurred and is likely impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Da    Br    Un    Cg    RP    Pr    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3 |  99.7
    Qu |     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.6 |  96.3
    Ha |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.7 |  99.3
    Ck |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   6.9 |  93.1
    Ya |     x     x   0.7   0.6   7.9  12.6  67.2 |  10.9
    Da |           x   4.4  16.1  36.9  25.9  16.0 |   0.6
    Br |     x         5.8   6.7  25.5  56.4   5.3 |    NO
    Un |     x     x        49.7  15.4   3.8     x |    NO
    Cg |     x   0.3  15.8         6.8   1.1     x |    NO
    RP |     x     x   4.4   2.9         0.2     x |    NO
    Pr |     x     x   0.0     x     x           x |    NO
    SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 02-24-2019, 01:28 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Midweekend update...

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^8.59 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Cornell
    3. Harvard
    4. Clarkson
      —————
    5. Yale
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Brown
    8. Union
      —————
    9. RPI
    10. Colgate
    11. Princeton
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  375.7 |  72.4  17.0   7.4   2.2   1.0   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.42 | 30.22
    Cr |  210.6 |  17.2  51.1  18.4   9.9   3.1   0.3     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.31 | 28.92
    Ha |  203.6 |   6.0  19.1  41.0  19.3  12.1   2.6   0.1     x     x     x     x     x |  3.21 | 27.76
    Ck |  192.8 |   3.0   7.7  17.0  35.0  28.7   8.1   0.4   0.0     x     x     x     x |  4.05 | 26.14
    Ya |  130.6 |   1.5   5.0  14.3  23.5  31.5  22.8   1.4   0.1     x     x     x     x |  4.53 | 25.68
    Da |   88.9 |   0.0   0.2   1.9   9.9  20.2  36.7  19.4  10.4   1.4     x     x     x |  5.98 | 23.88
    Br |   92.6 |     x     x     x   0.1   2.0  21.7  46.4  22.5   6.7   0.6     x     x |  7.12 | 21.64
    Un |  143.7 |     x     x     x   0.1   1.4   7.4  26.5  40.6  20.5   3.4   0.1     x |  7.82 | 20.89
    RP |   70.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.3   4.3  18.0  41.4  31.4   4.6     x |  9.13 | 18.55
    Cg |   59.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.7   8.5  29.0  55.1   5.8     x |  9.55 | 17.90
    Pr |   65.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.9   9.6  89.4   0.1 | 10.89 | 15.03
    SL |   19.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1  99.9 | 12.00 |  7.38
    
       |  KRACH |     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  375.7 |                                                                                                                           1.1   2.1  11.2  12.1  31.7  16.4  25.5 | 30.22
    Cr |  210.6 |                                                                                                                     1.1   2.7  15.8  14.4  34.3  13.4  18.4       | 28.92
    Ha |  203.6 |                                                                                                               2.7   3.7  17.5  14.2  32.1  12.6  17.2             | 27.76
    Ck |  192.8 |                                                                                                         5.3   6.3  26.8  16.3  29.3   8.0   8.0                   | 26.14
    Ya |  130.6 |                                                                                                         9.7   9.1  31.8  16.1  23.6   5.4   4.4                   | 25.68
    Da |   88.9 |                                                                                             9.0   8.2  28.1  15.4  25.6   6.8   6.8                               | 23.88
    Br |   92.6 |                                                                                10.5   9.4  31.2  15.9  24.0   5.2   3.8                                           | 21.64
    Un |  143.7 |                                                                           8.6   8.1  28.4  15.6  25.7   6.8   6.7                                                 | 20.89
    RP |   70.3 |                                                              12.3  10.2  31.3  15.3  22.0   5.0   4.0                                                             | 18.55
    Cg |   59.4 |                                                         6.7   7.5  30.4  16.6  27.3   6.3   5.2                                                                   | 17.90
    Pr |   65.0 |                                       5.9   6.8  28.9  16.5  27.9   7.1   6.9                                                                                     | 15.03
    SL |   19.6 |  34.3  19.8  28.7   9.6   6.3   1.0   0.3                                                                                                                         |  7.38
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Cr    Ha    Ck    Ya    Da    Br    Un    RP    Cg    Pr    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.0 |  99.0
    Cr |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   3.1 |  96.6
    Ha |     x     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   2.4  12.1 |  85.3
    Ck |     x     x     x           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.7   0.2   7.6  28.7 |  62.8
    Ya |     x     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.1   2.6   2.9  18.7  31.5 |  44.3
    Da |     x     x     x     x     x         0.1   1.3  14.0  16.7  34.3  20.2 |  11.9
    Br |     x     x     x     x     x   0.1         4.5  28.2  32.4  25.3   2.0 |   0.1
    Un |     x     x     x     x     x   0.6   1.9        29.6  32.4  10.1   1.4 |   0.1
    RP |     x     x     x     x     x   0.7   1.8  14.0         5.1   1.0     x |    NO
    Cg |     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.5   4.0   2.3         0.3     x |    NO
    Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x           x |    NO
    SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

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