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ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

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  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Quinnipiac is running away with this thing right now. Brown and SLU are also running away with something, but they're probably less happy about it. There's a bit of a skirmish developing at the bye line, as less than a point separates third from fifth right now. A lot of hockey left to play.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^42.85 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Union
    3. Cornell
    4. Yale
      —————
    5. Dartmouth
    6. Clarkson
    7. Princeton
    8. Harvard
      —————
    9. RPI
    10. Colgate
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  576.2 |  85.2  11.0   2.6   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.20 | 34.51
Un |  283.4 |   7.0  32.4  21.1  14.5  10.1   6.9   4.4   2.4   1.0   0.2   0.0     x |  3.46 | 28.11
Cr |  142.9 |   2.3  17.5  19.0  17.4  14.7  11.7   8.4   5.5   2.9   0.6   0.0   0.0 |  4.43 | 26.43
Ya |  175.8 |   2.4  13.8  17.3  17.4  15.7  12.9   9.8   6.6   3.6   0.5   0.0   0.0 |  4.66 | 26.11
Da |  132.1 |   1.7  12.0  15.8  16.5  15.7  13.8  11.2   8.0   4.6   0.8   0.0   0.0 |  4.92 | 25.57
Ck |  149.0 |   1.2   7.4  11.5  13.2  14.4  14.9  14.2  12.4   8.4   2.3   0.1   0.0 |  5.63 | 24.42
Pr |  108.2 |   0.1   2.5   5.4   8.4  11.6  15.0  18.2  19.5  15.0   4.2   0.2   0.0 |  6.65 | 22.66
Ha |  132.2 |   0.1   2.3   4.9   7.7  11.0  14.6  18.0  19.6  17.3   4.3   0.1   0.0 |  6.76 | 22.58
RP |   74.9 |   0.0   1.0   2.3   3.9   6.1   9.1  13.4  20.0  30.4  12.9   0.9   0.0 |  7.76 | 20.67
Cg |   50.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.4   5.9  16.1  62.9   9.5   1.4 |  9.69 | 15.82
Br |   18.8 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   9.0  66.4  23.8 | 11.13 | 10.02
SL |   13.8 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.3  22.8  74.8 | 11.72 |  7.11

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  576.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.4   5.7   8.7  11.9  14.4  15.2  14.4  11.0   7.3   3.3   1.3 | 34.51
Un |  283.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.5   5.3   7.4   9.6  11.2  12.2  12.0  10.9   8.7   6.5   4.1   2.4   1.1   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x | 28.11
Cr |  142.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.3   5.1   6.9   9.0  10.5  11.6  11.5  10.7   8.9   7.0   4.8   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 26.43
Ya |  175.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.7   5.5   7.7   9.6  11.3  11.8  11.7  10.3   8.5   6.1   4.2   2.5   1.4   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 26.11
Da |  132.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.7   6.7   9.0  10.6  11.9  11.8  11.1   9.2   7.2   5.0   3.3   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 25.57
Ck |  149.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.3   3.6   5.2   7.0   8.7  10.0  10.9  10.8  10.1   8.6   6.9   5.1   3.4   2.1   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 24.42
Pr |  108.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.6   4.3   6.6   8.7  11.0  12.0  12.5  11.3   9.8   7.3   5.2   3.1   1.8   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 22.66
Ha |  132.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.7   6.7   9.0  10.6  11.9  11.9  11.1   9.3   7.3   4.9   3.2   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 22.58
RP |   74.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.0   4.8   6.7   8.8  10.4  11.4  11.3  10.7   9.0   7.2   5.2   3.5   2.2   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 20.67
Cg |   50.1 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.5   4.2   6.6   8.8  10.9  11.9  12.2  11.1   9.5   7.3   5.2   3.4   2.1   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.82
Br |   18.8 |     x     x     x   0.7   2.1   5.3   8.8  12.7  14.7  15.0  13.2  10.4   7.3   4.6   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.02
SL |   13.8 |   0.7   2.2   5.2   8.8  12.3  14.3  14.6  13.1  10.4   7.5   4.9   3.0   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.11
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Un    Cr    Ya    Da    Ck    Pr    Ha    RP    Cg    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2 |  99.7
Un |   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.5   1.5   4.0   7.4   9.2 |  75.0
Cr |     x   0.0         0.3   0.3   0.6   1.4   1.5   2.9   7.6  12.0  13.9 |  56.2
Ya |     x   0.1   0.2         0.3   0.9   1.3   1.6   3.6   8.9  13.2  14.9 |  51.0
Da |     x   0.1   0.3   0.4         0.8   1.6   2.2   4.1  10.0  13.9  15.2 |  45.9
Ck |     x   0.1   0.4   0.4   0.6         2.4   2.7   7.3  12.9  14.7  14.5 |  33.3
Pr |   0.0   0.2   0.6   0.7   1.1   2.0         4.6  11.4  16.6  14.6  12.5 |  16.3
Ha |   0.0   0.2   0.6   0.9   1.0   2.2   4.6        10.8  16.7  14.1  12.0 |  15.1
RP |   0.0   0.4   0.9   1.1   1.6   3.0   5.6   7.0        13.2   8.8   6.9 |   7.2
Cg |     x   0.1   0.4   0.3   0.4   1.1   2.0   1.5   2.5         1.0   0.6 |   0.3
Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0 |   0.0
SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

    Leave a comment:

  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Post-thanksgiving update. Just KRACH things.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^49.62 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Union
    3. Clarkson
    4. Cornell
      —————
    5. Princeton
    6. Harvard
    7. Dartmouth
    8. RPI
      —————
    9. Yale
    10. Colgate
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  468.5 |  67.4  19.9   7.5   3.0   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.54 | 32.80
Un |  315.1 |  16.3  31.0  20.7  13.1   8.3   5.1   3.1   1.6   0.7   0.1   0.0     x |  3.07 | 28.87
Ck |  183.2 |   6.7  14.9  18.3  16.1  13.4  10.9   8.5   6.3   4.0   0.9   0.0   0.0 |  4.43 | 26.56
Cr |  140.1 |   4.4  13.6  16.8  16.6  14.3  11.9   9.5   7.2   4.6   1.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.68 | 26.09
Pr |  145.9 |   2.7   8.5  13.4  16.1  16.4  14.6  12.1   9.2   5.8   1.3   0.1   0.0 |  5.17 | 25.20
Ha |  145.6 |   0.7   3.8   7.0  10.0  12.5  14.6  15.9  16.1  14.6   4.6   0.2   0.0 |  6.39 | 23.23
Da |  104.8 |   0.9   3.7   6.7   9.7  12.5  14.8  16.2  16.4  14.3   4.6   0.3   0.0 |  6.41 | 23.09
RP |   97.6 |   0.4   2.3   4.9   7.8  10.7  13.4  15.9  18.1  19.3   6.6   0.5   0.0 |  6.87 | 22.39
Ya |  123.1 |   0.5   2.2   4.6   7.2  10.0  12.9  16.0  19.1  21.1   6.0   0.4   0.0 |  6.94 | 22.25
Cg |   50.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.7   5.8  14.4  59.0  14.0   1.8 |  9.73 | 15.77
Br |   21.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   1.2  13.6  65.8  19.1 | 11.02 | 10.82
SL |   13.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.3  18.6  79.0 | 11.76 |  6.94

   |  KRACH |     x     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  468.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.1   3.5   5.5   8.0  10.4  12.6  13.5  13.2  11.2   8.5   5.3   2.9   1.1   0.3     x     x | 32.80
Un |  315.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.4   3.8   5.7   7.9  10.0  11.7  12.4  12.2  10.6   8.5   5.8   3.6   1.8   0.8   0.2   0.1     x     x     x     x | 28.87
Ck |  183.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.5   2.4   3.5   5.0   6.6   8.3   9.5  10.4  10.5   9.9   8.7   7.2   5.4   3.9   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 26.56
Cr |  140.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.8   4.1   5.9   7.6   9.2  10.3  10.8  10.5   9.6   8.0   6.3   4.5   3.0   1.8   1.1   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 26.09
Pr |  145.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.6   5.5   7.5   9.5  10.9  11.8  11.4  10.4   8.4   6.5   4.3   2.8   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 25.20
Ha |  145.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.4   3.8   5.5   7.4   9.1  10.5  11.1  11.1  10.0   8.5   6.4   4.7   3.0   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 23.23
Da |  104.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.1   5.8   7.8   9.4  10.8  11.2  10.9   9.6   8.0   6.1   4.4   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 23.09
RP |   97.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.5   5.3   7.2   9.1  10.4  11.3  11.1  10.2   8.6   6.8   4.8   3.2   1.9   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 22.39
Ya |  123.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.4   3.9   5.5   7.5   9.3  10.7  11.2  11.0   9.9   8.3   6.4   4.6   3.0   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 22.25
Cg |   50.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   2.9   4.7   6.7   8.8  10.4  11.4  11.4  10.5   9.0   7.2   5.3   3.6   2.3   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.77
Br |   21.9 |     x     x     x   0.1   0.5   1.7   3.5   6.4   9.4  12.2  13.6  13.6  12.0   9.7   7.0   4.6   2.8   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.82
SL |   13.3 |   0.4   1.3   3.3   6.1   9.4  12.1  13.7  13.6  12.2   9.8   7.2   4.8   3.0   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.94
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Un    Ck    Cr    Pr    Ha    Da    RP    Ya    Cg    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.6   1.1 |  97.9
Un |   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.6   0.5   3.0   5.3   7.6 |  81.1
Ck |   0.0   0.0         0.3   0.4   1.2   1.3   2.2   1.8   7.8  11.0  12.8 |  56.0
Cr |   0.0   0.0   0.3         0.6   1.4   1.4   2.1   2.6   8.8  12.0  13.7 |  51.3
Pr |   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.5         1.9   2.2   3.1   2.5  10.9  14.5  16.0 |  40.7
Ha |   0.0   0.1   0.8   1.0   1.3         3.4   5.0   5.7  14.4  14.4  13.0 |  21.6
Da |   0.0   0.1   0.8   0.9   1.1   4.0         4.8   6.0  14.6  14.5  13.0 |  21.0
RP |   0.0   0.2   1.0   1.2   1.4   4.2   4.4         6.5  14.6  13.3  11.3 |  15.4
Ya |   0.0   0.1   1.1   1.2   1.5   4.7   4.4   6.6        14.9  12.9  10.7 |  14.6
Cg |   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.5   0.6   1.5   1.6   1.9   1.7         1.3   0.8 |   0.4
Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0         0.0 |   0.0
SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

    Leave a comment:

  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    I kind of forgot that I had to do this because RPI didn't play last weekend and thus college hockey must not have existed. Anyway, we don't need the fake tie any more which is nice and we don't need the whole 0-44 range in the point table since we don't have any league-undefeated teams. Cool cool cool.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^49.62 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Cornell
    3. Union
    4. Dartmouth
      —————
    5. Princeton
    6. Clarkson
    7. Harvard
    8. RPI
      —————
    9. Yale
    10. Colgate
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  422.9 |  61.4  21.0   9.4   4.6   2.2   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.70 | 32.45
Cr |  195.6 |  12.6  22.9  19.3  15.3  11.8   8.4   5.4   3.0   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  3.60 | 28.30
Un |  265.9 |  10.3  19.5  19.7  17.1  13.6   9.5   5.9   3.1   1.2   0.2   0.0     x |  3.80 | 27.75
Da |  187.5 |   7.2  14.5  16.7  17.0  15.6  12.7   8.7   5.0   2.1   0.3   0.0   0.0 |  4.32 | 26.85
Pr |  168.4 |   4.6  10.9  15.7  17.6  17.0  14.4  10.3   6.2   2.8   0.4   0.0   0.0 |  4.67 | 26.25
Ck |  148.7 |   3.0   7.1  10.2  12.8  15.0  16.3  14.9  11.7   7.2   1.7   0.1   0.0 |  5.53 | 24.77
Ha |  131.7 |   0.5   2.2   4.4   7.1  10.6  15.0  19.2  20.8  15.7   4.3   0.3   0.0 |  6.77 | 22.58
RP |   95.0 |   0.3   1.5   3.3   5.7   9.0  13.6  19.1  22.3  19.2   5.4   0.5   0.0 |  7.08 | 22.01
Ya |   88.1 |   0.1   0.5   1.2   2.6   4.8   8.4  14.1  22.5  34.2  10.4   1.1   0.1 |  7.93 | 20.18
Cg |   44.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   5.0  14.5  57.0  17.3   3.1 |  9.88 | 14.90
Br |   21.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.8  16.5  60.0  21.4 | 11.00 | 10.72
SL |   14.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.7  20.5  75.5 | 11.71 |  7.23

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  422.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.3   6.4   8.9  11.2  12.9  13.1  12.4  10.0   7.5   4.5   2.4   0.8   0.3     x     x | 32.45
Cr |  195.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.4   3.7   5.4   7.1   8.8  10.2  10.9  10.9  10.1   8.5   6.8   4.9   3.3   2.0   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 28.30
Un |  265.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.6   2.7   4.2   6.1   8.2  10.2  11.5  12.1  11.5  10.1   7.8   5.7   3.5   2.0   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x | 27.75
Da |  187.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.9   4.3   6.1   8.0   9.7  10.9  11.3  11.0   9.6   7.8   5.8   4.1   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 26.85
Pr |  168.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.1   3.5   5.3   7.4   9.3  11.0  11.7  11.7  10.5   8.7   6.5   4.5   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.25
Ck |  148.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.2   3.4   4.8   6.4   8.0   9.3  10.2  10.4  10.0   8.9   7.4   5.8   4.2   2.8   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0 | 24.77
Ha |  131.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.0   3.3   4.9   6.7   8.7  10.1  11.1  11.1  10.4   8.9   7.2   5.2   3.6   2.2   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 22.58
RP |   95.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.1   6.0   7.9   9.8  11.0  11.5  10.9   9.8   7.8   6.0   4.1   2.6   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 22.01
Ya |   88.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.4   3.9   5.7   7.8   9.5  10.9  11.3  11.0   9.8   8.1   6.2   4.4   2.9   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.18
Cg |   44.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.6   4.3   6.5   8.6  10.6  11.5  11.8  10.8   9.3   7.3   5.5   3.7   2.4   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.90
Br |   21.3 |     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   1.8   3.7   6.7   9.6  12.4  13.7  13.5  11.8   9.4   6.7   4.4   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.72
SL |   14.3 |   0.3   1.0   2.8   5.3   8.4  11.3  13.1  13.6  12.5  10.4   7.9   5.5   3.5   2.1   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.23
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Cr    Un    Da    Pr    Ck    Ha    RP    Ya    Cg    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   1.9 |  96.4
Cr |   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.6   0.8   2.1   5.4   8.5  10.8 |  70.1
Un |   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.0   1.9   6.0   9.6  12.4 |  66.6
Da |   0.0   0.1   0.0         0.1   0.4   1.2   1.2   3.4   8.5  12.5  14.8 |  55.5
Pr |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2         0.5   1.4   2.1   3.5   9.9  14.1  16.2 |  48.8
Ck |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3         2.4   3.7   6.6  13.6  15.7  15.3 |  33.1
Ha |   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.8         5.6  12.6  17.3  14.9  11.9 |  14.2
RP |   0.0   0.3   0.4   0.6   0.7   2.0   5.1        13.7  17.2  13.7  10.4 |  10.8
Ya |   0.0   0.4   0.4   0.7   1.0   3.0   7.3   9.0        13.5   8.8   5.9 |   4.4
Cg |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.6   1.8   2.0         0.8   0.4 |   0.2
Br |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1         0.0 |   0.0
SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

    Leave a comment:

  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Movin' right along, boop-a-doop boop-a-doop...

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^51.53 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Princeton
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Union
    4. Cornell
      —————
    5. Dartmouth
    6. Clarkson
    7. RPI
    8. Harvard
      —————
    9. Yale
    10. Brown
    11. Colgate
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. Until later in the season, KRACH includes a hypothetical tie to make all ratings real and finite.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pr |  371.1 |  71.9  17.2   6.5   2.7   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.46 | 34.19
Qu |  254.4 |  11.5  25.5  22.4  17.1  11.7   6.8   3.3   1.3   0.4   0.0   0.0     x |  3.35 | 28.97
Un |  226.9 |   4.9  19.0  21.3  19.6  15.6  10.2   5.7   2.7   1.0   0.1   0.0     x |  3.95 | 27.61
Cr |  160.2 |   6.7  16.8  17.9  17.6  15.7  11.7   7.6   4.1   1.7   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  4.17 | 27.40
Da |  164.8 |   3.6  14.6  18.0  19.0  17.6  13.1   8.3   4.1   1.5   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  4.36 | 26.86
Ck |  120.0 |   1.1   4.5   7.6  11.3  15.5  19.1  17.5  13.2   8.3   1.6   0.3   0.0 |  5.92 | 23.95
RP |   89.6 |   0.2   1.5   3.7   7.0  11.5  17.2  21.6  19.5  14.2   2.9   0.6   0.0 |  6.74 | 22.41
Ha |   85.7 |   0.1   0.5   1.5   3.3   6.4  11.6  18.2  25.4  25.6   6.1   1.4   0.1 |  7.58 | 20.69
Ya |   78.8 |   0.0   0.4   1.0   2.4   4.9   9.6  16.3  25.3  31.5   7.1   1.5   0.1 |  7.83 | 20.06
Br |   30.8 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   2.1   7.9  42.1  40.5   6.7 | 10.39 | 12.84
Cg |   32.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   2.3   7.8  36.7  43.2   8.9 | 10.45 | 12.52
SL |   10.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   3.1  12.5  84.2 | 11.81 |  6.51

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pr |  371.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.0   3.3   5.0   7.1   9.2  11.1  12.2  12.4  11.2   9.3   6.7   4.3   2.3   1.1   0.3   0.1     x | 34.19
Qu |  254.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.0   5.7   7.7   9.5  11.0  11.6  11.4  10.2   8.4   6.1   4.2   2.4   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x | 28.97
Un |  226.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.4   6.4   8.5  10.5  11.6  12.2  11.3   9.8   7.5   5.3   3.2   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 27.61
Cr |  160.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.6   2.6   3.8   5.3   7.0   8.5   9.7  10.3  10.3   9.6   8.4   6.8   5.2   3.6   2.4   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 27.40
Da |  164.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.8   4.3   6.1   8.0   9.7  11.0  11.4  11.0   9.6   7.9   5.8   4.0   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 26.86
Ck |  120.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.2   2.0   3.1   4.5   6.1   7.7   9.2  10.1  10.5  10.0   9.1   7.6   6.0   4.4   3.0   1.9   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 23.95
RP |   89.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.1   3.4   5.3   7.1   9.1  10.4  11.4  11.2  10.3   8.7   6.9   4.9   3.2   1.9   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.41
Ha |   85.7 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.1   4.8   6.6   8.6  10.1  11.1  11.1  10.5   9.0   7.3   5.3   3.7   2.3   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.69
Ya |   78.8 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.5   4.1   5.9   8.1   9.8  11.1  11.4  11.0   9.6   7.9   5.9   4.2   2.7   1.6   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.06
Br |   30.8 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.2   3.9   6.5   9.0  11.4  12.5  12.7  11.5   9.5   7.2   5.0   3.2   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.84
Cg |   32.4 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.8   3.3   5.2   7.4   9.5  11.0  11.6  11.3  10.2   8.5   6.6   4.7   3.2   2.0   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.52
SL |   10.9 |   0.5   1.7   4.2   7.5  10.8  13.3  14.2  13.4  11.3   8.6   6.0   3.9   2.3   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.51
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Pr    Qu    Un    Cr    Da    Ck    RP    Ha    Ya    Br    Cg    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pr |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.3   1.0 |  98.4
Qu |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   0.7   5.0   5.3  10.8 |  76.5
Un |   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.4   0.6   1.1   1.5   7.8   8.1  14.6 |  64.8
Cr |   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.4   0.7   1.6   2.5   9.4   9.6  14.9 |  59.0
Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1         0.4   0.7   1.9   2.4  10.3  10.6  16.7 |  55.2
Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2         2.9   5.1   6.5  17.2  17.1  15.9 |  24.6
RP |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.3   2.0         7.9  10.0  18.5  17.9  12.5 |  12.5
Ha |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.4   2.9   5.3        15.0  15.1  14.4   7.5 |   5.3
Ya |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   0.5   3.4   6.1  13.1        13.3  12.9   5.9 |   3.8
Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.7   0.7         0.3   0.1 |   0.0
Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   0.8   0.4         0.1 |   0.0
SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

    Leave a comment:

  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    The period of instability continues as half the league plays their first conference games of the season and everyone's sample size gets just a little bit bigger. Quinnipiac looks to be in pretty good position and Brown and SLU are who we thought they were, but it's hard to make any conclusions with like four full months left to play.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^55.35 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Dartmouth
    3. Princeton
    4. Union
      —————
    5. Clarkson
    6. RPI
    7. Cornell
    8. Yale
      —————
    9. Harvard
    10. Colgate
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. Until later in the season, KRACH includes a hypothetical tie to make all ratings real and finite.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  379.3 |  45.3  24.8  13.7   7.9   4.5   2.4   1.0   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.14 | 32.24
Da |  251.7 |  26.6  25.9  18.0  12.3   8.4   5.2   2.5   0.9   0.1   0.0     x     x |  2.81 | 30.62
Pr |  176.7 |   9.9  15.0  17.7  16.7  14.9  12.4   8.1   4.1   1.1   0.1   0.0     x |  4.09 | 28.05
Un |  206.0 |   6.5  11.7  15.9  17.9  17.4  14.8   9.6   4.8   1.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.43 | 27.28
Ck |  169.3 |   6.0  10.5  14.5  16.6  17.1  15.7  11.3   6.2   2.0   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  4.65 | 26.91
RP |  127.2 |   4.3   8.5  13.0  16.2  17.8  17.2  12.9   7.4   2.5   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  4.91 | 26.38
Cr |   94.3 |   1.0   2.6   4.9   7.9  11.6  16.8  24.1  19.9   9.7   1.4   0.1   0.0 |  6.41 | 23.37
Ya |   86.0 |   0.3   0.8   2.0   3.7   6.4  11.1  19.8  31.8  20.9   2.9   0.3   0.0 |  7.35 | 21.31
Ha |   63.7 |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   4.3  10.0  21.7  45.6  12.4   2.5   0.4 |  8.50 | 18.29
Cg |   31.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   2.7  13.1  53.1  22.0   8.2 | 10.17 | 12.61
Br |   17.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.3  18.6  44.4  34.4 | 11.10 |  9.18
SL |   13.3 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.2  11.1  30.7  56.9 | 11.43 |  7.76

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  379.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.2   3.5   5.1   7.0   8.9  10.6  11.6  11.7  10.9   9.2   7.0   4.7   2.8   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.0     x     x | 32.24
Da |  251.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.1   4.6   6.4   8.3   9.9  11.0  11.4  10.9   9.5   7.7   5.4   3.7   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x | 30.62
Pr |  176.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.8   2.8   4.3   5.8   7.5   9.0  10.2  10.6  10.5   9.5   8.1   6.3   4.6   3.0   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 28.05
Un |  206.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.4   2.3   3.6   5.3   7.1   8.9  10.5  11.2  11.3  10.2   8.8   6.7   4.8   3.0   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 27.28
Ck |  169.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.2   1.9   3.0   4.4   6.1   7.8   9.2  10.3  10.6  10.4   9.3   7.8   6.0   4.4   2.9   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 26.91
RP |  127.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.4   2.3   3.6   5.3   7.0   8.8  10.2  11.0  10.9  10.1   8.6   6.8   5.0   3.3   2.1   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.38
Cr |   94.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.6   2.6   3.9   5.5   7.2   8.7   9.9  10.5  10.4   9.5   8.1   6.6   5.0   3.5   2.3   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 23.37
Ya |   86.0 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.5   3.9   5.6   7.5   9.0  10.3  10.7  10.5   9.6   8.2   6.5   4.8   3.3   2.1   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 21.31
Ha |   63.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.5   3.9   5.6   7.5   9.0  10.3  10.9  10.6   9.6   8.2   6.5   4.8   3.3   2.1   1.2   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.29
Cg |   31.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.7   3.1   5.0   7.2   9.3  10.9  11.6  11.5  10.4   8.7   6.8   4.9   3.3   2.1   1.2   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.61
Br |   17.7 |     x   0.1   0.4   1.4   3.0   5.5   8.3  11.1  12.8  13.2  12.3  10.4   8.0   5.6   3.6   2.1   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.18
SL |   13.3 |   0.2   0.7   2.0   4.0   6.8   9.6  12.0  13.2  12.9  11.4   9.3   6.9   4.7   2.9   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.76
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Da    Pr    Un    Ck    RP    Cr    Ya    Ha    Cg    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   2.8   3.4 |  91.8
Da |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   1.1   3.3   5.7   6.6 |  82.8
Pr |   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.9   3.8   8.8  12.3  13.2 |  59.4
Un |   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.5   1.1   4.3  10.4  14.5  15.4 |  52.0
Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1         0.2   0.6   1.4   5.3  11.7  15.0  15.9 |  47.5
RP |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1         0.7   1.7   6.2  13.2  16.4  16.9 |  42.0
Cr |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.4         5.3  14.6  20.3  16.3  14.8 |  16.5
Ya |   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.4   0.6   0.7   3.1        24.0  18.5  11.8   9.8 |   6.8
Ha |   0.0   0.1   0.5   0.6   0.9   1.1   5.2  12.3         8.8   4.7   3.8 |   1.2
Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.7   1.0   1.1         0.2   0.1 |   0.0
Br |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0         0.0 |    NO
SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

    Leave a comment:

  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    The season started woo! What a difference a week makes, as RPI jumps from 12th to 2nd and six teams, you know, actually played games.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^61.07 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. RPI
    3. Dartmouth
    4. Clarkson
      —————
    5. Yale
    6. Union
    7. Princeton
    8. Colgate
      —————
    9. Harvard
    10. Cornell
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. Until later in the season, KRACH includes a hypothetical tie to make all ratings real and finite.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  943.8 |  86.6  10.0   2.4   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.18 | 37.13
RP |  198.8 |   5.5  31.8  24.4  17.4  11.5   6.5   2.3   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  3.30 | 29.81
Da |  213.0 |   3.6  22.4  22.1  19.3  15.8  11.1   4.3   1.3   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.79 | 28.69
Ck |  199.6 |   2.4  16.6  19.2  19.5  18.2  14.7   6.6   2.3   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.20 | 27.75
Ya |  162.2 |   1.2  10.4  14.6  17.9  20.2  20.3  10.4   4.0   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.74 | 26.48
Un |  221.0 |   0.8   7.9  14.9  19.7  22.2  20.5   9.7   3.4   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.77 | 26.43
Pr |   77.8 |   0.0   0.5   1.3   2.9   6.1  12.9  28.8  27.9  13.7   4.3   1.3   0.3 |  7.33 | 20.26
Cg |   73.0 |   0.0   0.4   1.0   2.3   5.0  11.2  26.3  30.4  16.0   5.4   1.6   0.4 |  7.53 | 19.74
Ha |   46.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   2.5   9.2  20.6  36.2  18.7   8.7   3.2 |  8.95 | 15.85
Cr |   25.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.6   5.6  16.3  31.7  26.8  17.7 | 10.29 | 12.02
Br |   21.8 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.9  10.2  24.3  33.0  29.0 | 10.73 | 10.67
SL |   15.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   5.2  15.3  28.6  49.4 | 11.19 |  9.17

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  943.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.7   6.9   9.5  11.9  13.4  13.7  12.3   9.7   6.5   3.5   1.4   0.4 | 37.13
RP |  198.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.0   4.4   6.1   7.9   9.6  10.7  11.3  10.8   9.6   7.8   5.9   4.0   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 29.81
Da |  213.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.1   3.3   4.7   6.4   8.0   9.5  10.5  10.8  10.3   9.1   7.5   5.7   4.0   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 28.69
Ck |  199.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.3   2.2   3.3   4.7   6.3   7.9   9.2  10.1  10.5  10.0   9.0   7.5   5.8   4.2   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 27.75
Ya |  162.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.5   2.5   3.7   5.2   6.8   8.4   9.6  10.4  10.4   9.8   8.6   7.0   5.2   3.8   2.4   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.48
Un |  221.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.2   3.4   5.0   6.8   8.7  10.2  11.1  11.2  10.5   9.0   7.1   5.1   3.3   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 26.43
Pr |   77.8 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.8   2.8   4.2   5.7   7.3   8.8   9.8  10.2  10.1   9.3   7.9   6.4   4.8   3.4   2.2   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.26
Cg |   73.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.3   3.5   5.0   6.6   8.1   9.4  10.0  10.3   9.7   8.7   7.1   5.6   4.1   2.8   1.8   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.74
Ha |   46.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   1.9   3.2   4.7   6.5   8.2   9.7  10.6  10.8  10.1   8.9   7.3   5.6   4.1   2.7   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.85
Cr |   25.6 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.7   4.3   6.2   8.3  10.1  11.0  11.3  10.7   9.3   7.5   5.7   4.0   2.7   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.02
Br |   21.8 |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   2.9   4.9   7.1   9.2  10.9  11.7  11.6  10.5   8.8   6.9   5.0   3.4   2.1   1.2   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.67
SL |   15.9 |   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   3.7   5.9   8.4  10.5  11.9  12.2  11.5   9.9   7.8   5.8   4.0   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.17
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    RP    Da    Ck    Ya    Un    Pr    Cg    Ha    Cr    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1 |  99.7
RP |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.3   1.6   4.6   6.0   7.9 |  79.1
Da |     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   0.6   3.0   7.4   9.4  11.6 |  67.4
Ck |     x   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.7   0.9   4.2   9.7  12.0  14.3 |  57.6
Ya |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0   1.1   1.4   6.2  13.0  15.5  17.6 |  44.1
Un |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.0   1.3   5.9  13.1  15.9  18.6 |  43.4
Pr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2         6.3  20.6  19.0  16.3  12.8 |   4.8
Cg |     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   5.6        21.6  18.2  15.3  11.6 |   3.7
Ha |     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.3   7.6   9.1         6.8   5.1   3.4 |   0.3
Cr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   1.8   2.1   2.2         0.7   0.4 |   0.0
Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.9   1.0   1.0   0.5         0.2 |   0.0
SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.4   0.4   0.2   0.1       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

    Leave a comment:

  • lugnut92
    started a topic ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Here we are again, staring another ECAC season in the face and wondering, "What will a stupid computer say is bound to happen at the end of the year? Doesn't it know that literally half the league hasn't even played yet? Don't I usually wait until the first week has come and gone to ask this question? Hasn't lugnut92 worn out this bit?"

    Anyway, if you're new here, I make weekly posts simulating out the remaining ECAC season using KRACH. While KRACH does allow us to make predictions about the outcome of the season, it has some caveats: mostly that it only cares about wins and losses, so much so that "ties" aren't in its vocabulary. It also does not include any adjustments for home-ice advantage, injuries, or anything else that may alter a team's working strength for a given game. Also, until there is an unbroken chain of wins such that you can say any team is better than any other team (i.e., Team A is better than team X because A beat B, B beat C, C beat D, etc.), we have to give every team a tie against a hypothetical perfectly average team. All that said, it's by far the easiest rating system to calculate so it's the one I choose to use with my limited skill in Python.

    Every week, I run out the remaining season 1,000,000 times, which may sound like a lot until you consider that there are 955,004,950,796,825,236,893,190,701,774,414,011,91 9,935,138,974,343,129,836,853,841 different ways an ECAC schedule can play out. When it's done, I post the simulated final standings based on average points earned by each team over the many simulations. I also post the likelihood that each team ends in each position or with a given number of points. Finally, I post the likelihood of any given first round matchup. As you can imagine, a lot of this will change wildly over the course of the season, especially as the Ivies play their first games. I'm just ready for meaningful hockey so I'm posting this earlier than usual. So here we go:

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^62.98 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Union
    3. Clarkson
    4. Colgate
      —————
    5. Harvard
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Yale
    8. Princeton
      —————
    9. Cornell
    10. Brown
    11. SLU
    12. RPI

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. Until later in the season, KRACH includes a hypothetical tie to make all ratings real and finite.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  709.1 |  60.1  33.8   5.1   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.47 | 35.41
Un |  542.9 |  36.9  50.3   9.9   2.0   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  1.80 | 33.90
Ck |  210.1 |   2.5  10.8  41.5  19.2  10.7   6.5   4.1   2.5   1.5   0.7   0.1   0.0 |  3.88 | 27.07
Cg |  119.6 |   0.2   1.4  10.3  16.0  15.3  14.0  12.7  11.3   9.5   7.1   1.9   0.3 |  6.19 | 22.22
Ha |  100.0 |   0.1   0.6   5.6  10.4  12.1  13.1  13.6  13.8  13.6  12.2   3.9   0.8 |  7.03 | 20.64
Da |  100.0 |   0.1   0.6   5.5  10.3  12.2  13.1  13.6  13.9  13.7  12.3   3.9   0.8 |  7.04 | 20.63
Ya |  100.0 |   0.1   0.6   5.5  10.3  12.2  13.1  13.6  13.8  13.7  12.3   3.9   0.8 |  7.04 | 20.63
Pr |  100.0 |   0.1   0.6   5.5  10.3  12.2  13.2  13.6  13.8  13.7  12.3   3.9   0.8 |  7.04 | 20.63
Cr |  100.0 |   0.1   0.6   5.6  10.3  12.1  13.1  13.6  13.9  13.7  12.2   4.0   0.8 |  7.04 | 20.63
Br |  100.0 |   0.1   0.6   5.5  10.3  12.1  13.0  13.6  13.9  13.8  12.3   4.0   0.8 |  7.05 | 20.62
SL |   33.0 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   2.2   4.7  12.0  43.9  35.4 | 10.99 | 11.64
RP |   25.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.8   2.2   6.6  30.4  59.4 | 11.43 |  9.97

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  709.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.8   3.0   4.6   6.5   8.6  10.6  12.0  12.4  11.7   9.8   7.5   4.9   2.7   1.3   0.4   0.1 | 35.41
Un |  542.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.6   2.6   4.0   5.8   7.6   9.4  11.0  11.7  11.5  10.3   8.4   6.2   4.1   2.3   1.1   0.5   0.1   0.0 | 33.90
Ck |  210.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.3   2.0   3.1   4.3   5.8   7.3   8.6   9.7  10.0  10.0   9.2   7.9   6.4   4.8   3.3   2.2   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 27.07
Cg |  119.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.0   3.1   4.3   5.8   7.2   8.5   9.3   9.7   9.6   8.8   7.8   6.5   5.0   3.6   2.5   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 22.22
Ha |  100.0 |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   7.9   9.0   9.7   9.7   9.2   8.3   6.9   5.5   4.1   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 20.64
Da |  100.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.0   9.1   9.6   9.8   9.2   8.3   7.0   5.5   4.1   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 20.63
Ya |  100.0 |     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.7   7.9   9.0   9.7   9.8   9.2   8.2   7.0   5.5   4.2   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x | 20.63
Pr |  100.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.7   8.0   9.0   9.7   9.7   9.2   8.2   7.0   5.5   4.1   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x | 20.63
Cr |  100.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.1   9.1   9.7   9.6   9.2   8.2   7.0   5.5   4.1   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 20.63
Br |  100.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.9   5.2   6.6   8.0   9.1   9.7   9.7   9.2   8.2   7.0   5.5   4.1   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x | 20.62
SL |   33.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.5   5.2   7.2   9.0  10.3  10.9  10.8   9.9   8.4   6.8   5.1   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.64
RP |   25.6 |   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.6   4.4   6.6   8.7  10.4  11.4  11.5  10.6   9.2   7.3   5.5   3.8   2.6   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.97
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Un    Ck    Cg    Ha    Da    Ya    Pr    Cr    Br    SL    RP |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1 |  99.7
Un |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.4 |  99.1
Ck |   0.0   0.0         0.6   1.2   1.2   1.2   1.2   1.2   1.2   7.3   8.7 |  73.9
Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.3         4.1   4.2   4.1   4.2   4.1   4.2  13.6  14.5 |  27.8
Ha |   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.9         4.9   4.9   4.9   4.9   5.0  12.5  12.4 |  16.7
Da |   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.0   4.9         4.9   4.9   4.9   5.0  12.4  12.4 |  16.5
Ya |   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.9   4.9   4.9         4.9   4.9   4.9  12.4  12.5 |  16.5
Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.0   4.9   5.0   4.9         4.9   4.9  12.5  12.4 |  16.6
Cr |   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.0   4.9   4.9   4.9   4.9         5.0  12.4  12.5 |  16.6
Br |     x   0.0   0.3   2.9   4.9   4.9   5.0   4.9   5.0        12.4  12.4 |  16.4
SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   0.5   0.6   0.5   0.5   0.5   0.5         0.3 |   0.1
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.1       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    Tags: cornell big red, ecac hockey
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