Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Dawn Of
    The Seventeenth Day (of February)
    --- 24 games remain ---

    The new projections are basically a series of ties. Cornell and Quinnipiac will fight for first place, followed by Yale, Harvard, and Clarkson are in a tight race for the last two byes, then an effective three-way tie for sixth between Brown, Union, and Dartmouth, and finally the bottom four slightly more spread out.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^11.45 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Yale
    4. Harvard
      —————
    5. Clarkson
    6. Brown
    7. Union
    8. Dartmouth
      —————
    9. RPI
    10. Colgate
    11. Princeton
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  239.0 |  46.9  37.9  10.3   3.7   1.0   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.74 | 30.48
    Qu |  368.3 |  43.1  34.2  13.6   6.3   2.5   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.92 | 29.90
    Ya |  146.1 |   4.4  11.2  25.7  25.3  24.6   7.2   1.5   0.2     x     x     x     x |  3.83 | 27.12
    Ha |  193.0 |   1.3   7.9  27.9  25.9  26.8   7.5   2.3   0.4   0.0     x     x     x |  4.03 | 26.92
    Ck |  202.4 |   4.2   8.7  21.5  33.4  26.1   5.1   0.9   0.1     x     x     x     x |  3.88 | 26.66
    Br |   99.0 |     x   0.0   0.3   1.5   6.0  32.1  32.5  26.2   1.3   0.0   0.0     x |  6.79 | 22.52
    Un |  160.0 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.5   6.2  25.5  34.5  28.9   3.0   0.2   0.0     x |  6.92 | 22.48
    Da |   79.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.6   2.3   6.8  22.3  27.4  36.9   3.6   0.0   0.0     x |  6.99 | 22.47
    RP |   62.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   5.3  53.0  29.3  11.6     x |  9.46 | 17.03
    Cg |   52.0 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.8  34.1  50.0  13.9   0.0 |  9.75 | 16.36
    Pr |   60.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   4.9  20.4  73.9   0.6 | 10.70 | 14.41
    SL |   19.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.6  99.4 | 11.99 |  7.65
    
       |  KRACH |     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  239.0 |                                                                                                                     0.2   0.6   3.6   6.3  18.3  16.7  28.8  12.2  13.4 | 30.48
    Qu |  368.3 |                                                                                                               0.1   0.3   2.0   4.2  13.4  15.4  29.5  15.9  19.4       | 29.90
    Ya |  146.1 |                                                                                                         2.4   3.5  14.6  13.5  26.9  14.5  17.2   4.3   3.2             | 27.12
    Ha |  193.0 |                                                                                                   0.9   1.6   7.9   9.3  22.4  16.1  24.4   8.7   8.7                   | 26.92
    Ck |  202.4 |                                                                                                   0.9   1.8   9.2  10.8  25.9  16.5  22.7   6.5   5.6                   | 26.66
    Br |   99.0 |                                                                                 5.0   5.9  20.7  15.8  26.0  11.7  11.2   2.4   1.4                                     | 22.52
    Un |  160.0 |                                                                           1.5   2.5  11.4  11.7  25.5  15.6  20.7   6.0   5.2                                           | 22.48
    Da |   79.8 |                                                                                 5.9   6.5  21.0  15.5  24.6  11.2  11.1   2.5   1.7                                     | 22.47
    RP |   62.5 |                                                   8.5   8.7  25.3  16.6  22.6   8.9   7.2   1.4   0.7                                                                   | 17.03
    Cg |   52.0 |                                             5.0   6.3  23.2  16.8  26.0  10.9   9.2   1.8   0.9                                                                         | 16.36
    Pr |   60.5 |                                 4.6   6.0  23.1  16.7  25.7  11.0   9.7   2.0   1.1                                                                                     | 14.41
    SL |   19.5 |  27.1  20.4  28.3  13.0   8.2   2.2   0.7   0.1   0.0                                                                                                                   |  7.65
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Qu    Ya    Ha    Ck    Br    Un    Da    RP    Cg    Pr    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.0 |  98.9
    Qu |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   2.5 |  97.2
    Ya |     x     x           x     x   0.0   0.0     x   1.7   2.0   5.2  24.5 |  66.6
    Ha |     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.4   2.5   6.4  26.6 |  63.0
    Ck |     x     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   1.3   1.1   3.8  25.9 |  67.9
    Br |     x     x     x     x     x         0.3   0.1  27.5  27.9  34.8   6.2 |   1.8
    Un |     x     x     x     x     x   0.1         0.3  27.8  34.7  25.8   6.4 |   1.7
    Da |     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2        33.9  29.0  23.2   6.9 |   2.9
    RP |     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.4   1.7   3.1         0.6   0.2   0.0 |    NO
    Cg |     x     x     x     x     x   0.6   0.9   0.2   0.2         0.1     x |    NO
    Pr |     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0           x |    NO
    SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

    Leave a comment:


  • Scoop85
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    If KRATCH were to take injuries into account, it’s unlikely Cornell would be at 75% for 1st place, as the Big Red lost 2 key players this weekend.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    The Harvard pity game on Tuesday notwithstanding, we're all done with non-conference games. Three more weekends, 36 more games, it truly is the most wonderful time of the year. As for the actual projectoins, a couple things. First, what the **** is Brown doing in the top half? Linked to that, Quinnipiac has given up the first spot by losing to BROWN. Union is still massively underperforming. It's almost like giving 4 points to RPI wasn't a good look. Everyone is pretty well locked into their first round tier. Clarkson and Yale are close-ish but not really, and the logjam at 9th is much ado about nothing unless Union or Dartmouth lose a couple games they're not supposed to.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^17.18 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Harvard
    4. Clarkson
      —————
    5. Yale
    6. Brown
    7. Dartmouth
    8. Union
      —————
    9. Colgate
    10. Princeton
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  286.3 |  74.5  20.3   4.1   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.32 | 32.57
    Qu |  380.2 |  20.9  50.7  19.6   6.7   1.7   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.19 | 30.06
    Ha |  200.2 |   1.8  16.1  41.0  25.8  11.4   3.1   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.42 | 27.88
    Ck |  207.8 |   2.6  10.8  26.0  39.4  15.7   4.1   1.1   0.2   0.0     x     x     x |  3.72 | 26.96
    Ya |  119.1 |   0.3   1.9   7.8  19.3  39.4  19.0   8.5   3.2   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  5.06 | 24.72
    Br |   93.3 |   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.1  12.5  33.3  27.0  16.3   5.3   1.5   0.2     x |  6.61 | 22.16
    Da |   74.5 |     x   0.0   0.5   3.3  11.8  20.6  25.0  28.5   8.0   2.0   0.3     x |  6.96 | 21.67
    Un |  141.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.5   6.9  17.5  29.6  27.9  10.8   4.4   1.1     x |  7.30 | 21.10
    Cg |   54.3 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   0.9   3.2   9.1  31.1  31.2  24.3   0.0 |  9.61 | 16.97
    Pr |   71.1 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   0.9   3.1   8.3  22.7  32.9  31.7   0.2 |  9.79 | 16.56
    RP |   57.1 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.7   6.5  21.5  27.8  42.2   0.0 | 10.02 | 16.11
    SL |   17.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2  99.8 | 12.00 |  7.24
    
       |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  286.3 |                                                                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.9   3.8   9.1  12.1  19.9  17.2  19.8   8.7   6.8 | 32.57
    Qu |  380.2 |                                                                                                   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   1.0   2.3   6.1   9.8  17.6  18.0  22.8  12.0  10.1                   | 30.06
    Ha |  200.2 |                                                                                             0.0   0.1   0.5   1.3   4.1   6.5  13.5  14.6  21.0  14.6  14.9   5.3   3.7                         | 27.88
    Ck |  207.8 |                                                                                             0.1   0.3   1.6   3.0   8.2  10.4  18.4  15.8  19.2  10.4   8.8   2.4   1.4                         | 26.96
    Ya |  119.1 |                                                                                       0.6   1.3   5.4   7.3  15.6  14.8  20.3  13.2  12.3   5.1   3.2   0.7   0.3                               | 24.72
    Br |   93.3 |                                                                           1.2   2.2   8.1   9.8  18.5  15.7  18.9  11.0   9.0   3.3   1.8   0.4   0.1                                           | 22.16
    Da |   74.5 |                                                                     0.6   1.2   5.6   7.6  16.2  15.0  20.0  12.9  11.8   4.9   3.2   0.7   0.3                                                 | 21.67
    Un |  141.4 |                                                               0.4   0.8   3.8   5.8  13.4  13.8  20.4  14.4  14.6   6.6   4.6   1.0   0.5                                                       | 21.10
    Cg |   54.3 |                                             1.3   2.4   9.2  10.9  19.7  15.9  18.1  10.1   7.7   2.8   1.5   0.3   0.1                                                                         | 16.97
    Pr |   71.1 |                                       0.7   1.4   6.0   8.1  16.8  15.3  19.9  12.5  11.1   4.5   2.9   0.6   0.3                                                                               | 16.56
    RP |   57.1 |                                             3.6   5.2  14.9  14.8  21.2  14.7  13.5   6.4   3.9   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0                                                                         | 16.11
    SL |   17.9 |  16.8  18.3  25.5  17.5  12.5   5.7   2.6   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                                                   |  7.24
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Qu    Ha    Ck    Ya    Br    Da    Un    Cg    Pr    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1 |  99.8
    Qu |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.1   1.7 |  97.8
    Ha |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.2   1.5   1.3  11.4 |  84.5
    Ck |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.4   1.6   2.2  15.7 |  78.9
    Ya |     x     x     x   0.0         0.3   0.2   0.8   8.3   9.5  11.5  39.3 |  29.4
    Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.2   3.5  22.6  24.6  24.5  12.6 |   3.9
    Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9         2.7  23.6  21.8  24.9  11.9 |   3.8
    Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.2   2.7        25.5  23.3  22.2   6.9 |   1.8
    Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.6   1.4   3.0         3.9   2.2   0.2 |   0.0
    Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.6   1.9   3.8   2.3         2.5   0.2 |   0.0`
    RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.9   2.3   1.7   1.2         0.0 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    We enter the final month of the season with a super tight race at the top, a close fight for the final bye, and a meaningless dogfight for 9th. In a fun twist of the Monte Carlo, Quinnipiac falls down to 9th place exactly once, putting a weird blemish on the playoff table below.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^22.42 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Cornell
    3. Clarkson
    4. Harvard
      —————
    5. Yale
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Union
    8. Brown
      —————
    9. Colgate
    10. Princeton
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  439.4 |  50.5  31.7  11.1   4.6   1.7   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.76 | 31.34
    Cr |  268.8 |  38.5  39.2  14.0   5.9   2.0   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.95 | 31.30
    Ck |  217.3 |   5.9  12.5  23.9  27.5  21.8   7.0   1.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.74 | 27.41
    Ha |  214.9 |   1.6   8.0  29.1  27.2  22.8   8.8   2.2   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.98 | 27.20
    Ya |  138.2 |   3.5   8.2  18.9  25.9  28.0  12.6   2.5   0.4   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  4.17 | 26.82
    Da |   81.8 |   0.0   0.3   2.3   6.4  15.0  36.1  24.0  11.0   3.5   1.0   0.2   0.0 |  6.25 | 22.85
    Un |  144.2 |   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.3   7.2  23.5  32.3  20.1   8.8   3.9   1.3   0.0 |  7.07 | 21.14
    Br |   71.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.0   8.4  22.0  29.5  20.1  13.3   5.6   0.0 |  8.21 | 18.93
    Cg |   54.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.1   6.7  17.3  27.0  26.4  20.3   0.9 |  9.35 | 16.89
    Pr |   68.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   5.9  12.9  19.9  27.5  31.1   1.2 |  9.64 | 16.20
    RP |   54.4 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.7   3.1   8.4  20.6  27.6  39.4   0.2 |  9.90 | 15.79
    SL |   19.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.1  97.6 | 11.97 |  8.12
    
       |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  439.4 |                                                                                         x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.1   2.7   5.1   9.5  13.3  18.4  17.3  17.3   8.9   5.8       | 31.34
    Cr |  268.8 |                                                                                             0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.4   3.0   6.3   9.4  14.6  15.8  18.3  13.0  10.9   4.2   2.4 | 31.30
    Ck |  217.3 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.6   3.1   6.6   9.2  14.3  14.6  16.9  12.4  10.7   5.2   3.3   0.8   0.4             | 27.41
    Ha |  214.9 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.6   3.0   6.9   9.6  15.8  15.5  18.6  12.0  10.5   3.6   2.2                         | 27.20
    Ya |  138.2 |                                                                                       0.1   0.2   1.1   2.2   5.5   7.8  13.3  14.0  17.0  13.2  11.9   6.6   4.3   1.6   0.8   0.1   0.0       | 26.82
    Da |   81.8 |                                                               0.1   0.2   1.2   2.2   5.6   7.9  13.1  13.6  16.7  13.1  11.9   6.8   4.7   1.8   0.9   0.2   0.1                               | 22.85
    Un |  144.2 |                                                   0.1   0.2   0.9   1.8   4.6   6.8  11.9  13.1  16.7  13.8  13.1   7.7   5.6   2.2   1.2   0.2   0.1                                           | 21.14
    Br |   71.9 |                                                   0.8   1.5   5.3   7.6  13.7  14.4  17.4  13.6  11.7   6.8   4.3   1.8   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                                           | 18.93
    Cg |   54.0 |                                 0.2   0.5   2.4   4.1   9.3  11.5  16.8  15.1  15.6  10.3   7.7   3.6   1.9   0.6   0.3   0.0   0.0                                                             | 16.89
    Pr |   68.5 |                           0.2   0.5   2.1   3.6   8.1  10.3  15.4  14.5  15.8  11.1   9.2   4.7   2.9   1.0   0.5   0.1   0.0                                                                   | 16.20
    RP |   54.4 |                                       2.2   3.6  10.5  12.1  18.7  15.6  15.8   9.7   6.8   3.0   1.5   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                   | 15.79
    SL |   19.0 |   8.4  12.3  20.5  18.9  17.0  11.0   6.7   3.2   1.4   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                           |  8.12
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Cr    Ck    Ha    Ya    Da    Un    Br    Cg    Pr    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   1.7 |  98.0
    Cr |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.1   1.9 |  97.7
    Ck |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.5   2.7   3.7  21.5 |  69.7
    Ha |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.9   4.0   4.1  22.4 |  65.9
    Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.3   1.3   3.5   4.0   6.8  27.6 |  56.5
    Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.4   6.8  17.7  19.8  24.9  15.5 |   9.1
    Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.8         9.5  21.6  21.5  21.9   7.6 |   3.0
    Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.2   4.3        19.1  17.0  17.9   1.4 |   0.2
    Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   2.8   9.5         8.1   4.1   0.2 |   0.0
    Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   2.7   7.9   4.7         4.2   0.2 |   0.0
    RP |   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.5   2.2   2.5   3.6   2.4         0.1 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    We're past the halfway point! Right now, Cornell and Quinnipiac are in a dogfight for first overall, Yale has dropped out of the bye, and it's a ****ing mess between 8th and 10th, with none of Brown, Colgate, or Princeton favored to actually take the final home spot. Meanwhile, SLU is almost locked in last.

    Fun fact, we can still have the fabled 12-way tie for first. Pray for Team Chaos!

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^27.20 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Clarkson
    4. Harvard
      —————
    5. Yale
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Union
    8. Brown
      —————
    9. Colgate
    10. Princeton
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  266.0 |  48.4  32.4  12.1   4.7   1.8   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.81 | 31.25
    Qu |  398.1 |  37.0  34.9  15.7   7.5   3.4   1.1   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.10 | 30.28
    Ck |  215.6 |  10.4  15.6  23.6  22.0  15.1   8.0   3.3   1.4   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  3.63 | 27.33
    Ha |  200.5 |   1.6   8.3  24.6  24.6  19.8  12.8   5.7   2.0   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  4.28 | 26.44
    Ya |  125.3 |   2.1   6.1  13.5  20.0  23.6  18.7   9.4   4.3   1.7   0.5   0.0     x |  4.86 | 25.49
    Da |   89.8 |   0.4   2.2   8.0  14.0  20.0  23.7  16.4   9.5   4.3   1.4   0.1     x |  5.72 | 24.04
    Un |  151.3 |   0.1   0.4   1.7   4.1   8.0  14.4  20.2  19.8  16.8  13.0   1.4   0.0 |  7.46 | 21.23
    Br |   77.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   2.9   7.7  15.6  21.2  24.1  25.6   1.8   0.0 |  8.36 | 19.66
    Cg |   66.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.4   6.2  15.1  21.3  26.0  22.3   5.6   0.0 |  8.48 | 19.55
    Pr |   88.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.2   3.1   6.9  13.6  19.6  23.4  27.2   4.4   0.0 |  8.48 | 19.43
    RP |   42.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.7   9.7  85.9   0.7 | 10.82 | 13.18
    SL |   14.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.8  99.2 | 11.99 |  6.11
    
       |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  266.0 |                                                                                         x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   3.9   6.5  10.3  12.9  15.8  14.8  13.9   9.0   6.2   2.3   1.0 | 31.25
    Qu |  398.1 |                                                                             x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.3   6.2   9.5  13.6  15.7  17.1  13.7  10.8   4.8   2.4             | 30.28
    Ck |  215.6 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.5   4.2   7.2   9.6  13.0  13.5  14.3  11.6   9.8   6.0   3.9   1.7   0.8   0.2   0.1       | 27.33
    Ha |  200.5 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   3.4   5.6  10.0  12.4  16.7  14.9  15.3   9.2   6.9   2.2   1.2                               | 26.44
    Ya |  125.3 |                                                                                       0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   4.1   6.1  10.4  12.0  15.2  13.7  13.3   9.1   6.8   3.5   2.0   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0             | 25.49
    Da |   89.8 |                                                                           0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.7   4.5   8.4  10.7  14.7  14.1  14.7  10.8   8.6   4.7   2.9   1.1   0.5   0.1   0.0                         | 24.04
    Un |  151.3 |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.4   2.5   5.0   7.1  10.7  12.1  14.2  12.9  12.0   8.5   6.3   3.4   1.9   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0                                     | 21.23
    Br |   77.4 |                                                               0.5   1.0   3.6   5.6  10.4  12.3  15.6  14.1  13.4   9.4   6.9   3.7   2.1   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                     | 19.66
    Cg |   66.1 |                                             0.0   0.0   0.3   0.7   1.9   3.5   6.8   9.3  13.1  13.8  14.9  12.0  10.1   6.3   4.1   1.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                                           | 19.55
    Pr |   88.9 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.0   4.2   6.5  10.4  12.2  14.8  13.6  12.8   9.0   6.6   3.6   2.0   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0                                                 | 19.43
    RP |   42.5 |                                 1.7   3.4   8.7  11.3  16.1  15.5  15.2  11.1   8.2   4.6   2.6   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                   | 13.18
    SL |   14.5 |   7.8  13.7  20.0  19.4  16.3  10.9   6.4   3.2   1.4   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                     |  6.11
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Qu    Ck    Ha    Ya    Da    Un    Br    Cg    Pr    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.7 |  97.6
    Qu |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   1.0   3.3 |  95.1
    Ck |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   1.7   1.3   1.2   7.4  15.1 |  71.7
    Ha |   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.7   2.2   3.0   2.9  11.7  19.7 |  59.1
    Ya |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.2   2.5   4.1   4.5   3.7  17.3  23.6 |  41.7
    Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2         2.8   6.6   8.9   8.4  22.6  20.0 |  24.6
    Un |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.3        10.9  14.2  12.4  14.8   8.0 |   6.3
    Br |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   1.5   8.1        12.2  12.9   9.0   2.9 |   1.2
    Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.1   8.3  12.5        13.1   7.0   2.4 |   1.1
    Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   7.7  13.2   9.2         7.8   3.1 |   1.6
    RP |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.2         0.0 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 01-27-2019, 11:53 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    We stand here just one game shy of the halfway point of the season and Cornell might be pulling away a little bit. Meanwhile SLU has all but locked up the first overall draft pick. There's relatively little action at the breakpoints, which are both separated by about one win at present. The middle is a jumble as Union underperforms (ahahahahahahaha) and Dartmouth/Yale are somewhat above their station.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^31.97 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Clarkson
    4. Yale
      —————
    5. Harvard
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Union
    8. Princeton
      —————
    9. Colgate
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  308.7 |  62.1  24.5   9.3   3.0   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.57 | 32.66
    Qu |  393.0 |  22.6  40.7  21.8   9.9   3.6   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.35 | 30.17
    Ck |  236.4 |  12.1  20.8  28.8  18.3  10.8   5.8   2.4   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  3.27 | 28.29
    Ya |  133.5 |   2.4   8.5  17.9  25.5  20.5  14.0   7.3   2.9   0.8   0.2   0.0     x |  4.46 | 26.21
    Ha |  170.1 |   0.2   2.2   9.7  17.3  23.0  22.7  16.2   6.5   1.8   0.4   0.1   0.0 |  5.40 | 24.42
    Da |   87.2 |   0.3   2.2   8.4  15.5  21.1  22.8  17.7   7.9   2.9   0.9   0.2   0.0 |  5.59 | 24.01
    Un |  171.3 |   0.2   1.1   3.7   8.9  15.2  20.0  22.8  15.2   8.2   3.6   1.1   0.0 |  6.48 | 22.42
    Pr |   87.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.3   3.4   8.0  16.9  27.4  22.4  14.0   6.2   0.1 |  8.19 | 19.33
    Cg |   55.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.8   2.6   8.1  18.9  26.3  23.7  18.7   0.6 |  9.15 | 17.53
    Br |   59.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.8   5.4  12.8  21.5  30.5  27.1   0.2 |  9.53 | 16.58
    RP |   50.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   2.9   7.6  15.9  26.6  45.3   0.6 | 10.02 | 15.39
    SL |   15.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.3  98.6 | 11.98 |  6.98
    
       |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  308.7 |                                                                             x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.8   3.3   5.6   8.4  11.6  13.7  15.0  13.5  11.5   7.3   4.5   1.6   0.7 | 32.66
    Qu |  393.0 |                                                                             x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   3.6   6.6   9.9  14.1  15.8  16.9  13.2  10.2   4.4   2.2                         | 30.17
    Ck |  236.4 |                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.7   1.6   2.8   4.9   7.0   9.8  11.5  13.2  12.6  11.7   9.0   6.7   3.9   2.3   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0       | 28.29
    Ya |  133.5 |                                                                           0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.4   3.0   4.8   7.8   9.9  12.7  13.0  13.3  11.0   9.0   5.9   3.9   1.9   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0             | 26.21
    Ha |  170.1 |                                                           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   4.0   6.3  10.0  12.1  14.9  13.9  13.4   9.3   6.9   3.3   1.8   0.5   0.2                                           | 24.42
    Da |   87.2 |                                                               0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.4   3.2   5.2   8.4  10.7  13.5  13.5  13.3  10.6   8.3   5.2   3.2   1.5   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 24.01
    Un |  171.3 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.9   4.5   7.0   9.2  11.7  12.5  12.9  11.2   9.6   6.7   4.6   2.5   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0                                     | 22.42
    Pr |   87.5 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.1   4.5   6.7  10.6  12.4  15.0  13.5  12.6   8.8   6.3   3.3   1.8   0.6   0.3   0.0   0.0                                                             | 19.33
    Cg |   55.8 |                                 0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   2.2   3.9   7.0   9.6  12.7  13.5  13.8  11.7   9.5   6.4   4.2   2.3   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                           | 17.53
    Br |   59.6 |                                       0.2   0.6   2.1   3.7   7.1   9.5  12.9  13.5  14.0  11.8   9.5   6.4   4.2   2.3   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                 | 16.58
    RP |   50.7 |                                 0.3   0.7   2.4   4.2   7.8  10.2  13.4  13.7  13.8  11.3   8.9   6.0   3.8   2.0   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                       | 15.39
    SL |   15.4 |   4.0   8.5  14.7  17.3  17.5  14.4  10.4   6.5   3.6   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                         |  6.98
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Qu    Ck    Ya    Ha    Da    Un    Pr    Cg    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.8 |  98.9
    Qu |     x         0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.3   0.6   3.6 |  95.0
    Ck |     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.8   2.7   3.7  10.7 |  80.0
    Ya |     x     x   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.6   2.0   5.6   6.9   9.1  20.4 |  54.2
    Ha |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1         0.2   0.8   5.0  10.7  12.7  16.0  23.0 |  29.4
    Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2         0.9   5.9  11.4  13.1  16.7  21.2 |  26.5
    Un |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5         8.0  15.2  16.3  17.5  15.2 |  13.9
    Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.0   4.0        14.9  16.6  14.5   3.5 |   1.6
    Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   3.1  11.5         8.0   5.7   0.8 |   0.3
    Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   2.0   6.3   6.1         4.4   0.6 |   0.2
    RP |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   3.2   3.3   2.6         0.3 |   0.1
    SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 01-21-2019, 10:58 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    A little shake-up at the top has Cornell just ahead of Quinnipiac, though they're basically tied. Further, while the bye line is seeing a little separation, the home-road line is separated by just about half a point, as Colgate and Princeton fight for the right to host.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^35.78 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Yale
    4. Clarkson
      —————
    5. Harvard
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Union
    8. Colgate
      —————
    9. Princeton
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  240.9 |  40.4  28.2  15.6   8.5   4.3   2.0   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.19 | 30.45
    Qu |  352.2 |  35.8  32.0  17.6   9.0   3.8   1.3   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.19 | 29.93
    Ya |  140.7 |  10.1  15.5  22.1  20.3  14.8   9.2   4.8   2.1   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  3.79 | 27.16
    Ck |  210.0 |  10.4  14.0  19.3  19.6  15.6  10.5   6.0   2.9   1.3   0.3   0.0   0.0 |  3.96 | 26.72
    Ha |  164.6 |   1.5   4.9  11.6  17.2  20.5  19.1  13.7   7.1   3.3   1.0   0.2   0.0 |  5.26 | 24.63
    Da |   82.3 |   1.2   3.3   8.0  12.7  17.3  19.6  17.2  11.1   6.2   2.6   0.7   0.0 |  5.86 | 23.58
    Un |  164.6 |   0.6   1.8   4.5   8.8  14.6  18.9  19.7  14.8  10.2   4.8   1.4   0.0 |  6.50 | 22.43
    Cg |   63.3 |   0.1   0.3   0.9   2.2   4.9   9.3  15.8  22.3  21.5  14.6   7.9   0.4 |  8.12 | 19.73
    Pr |   83.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.2   3.0   6.8  13.3  22.0  26.4  19.1   7.6   0.3 |  8.46 | 19.13
    Br |   64.7 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.1   2.8   6.4  12.5  19.7  32.4  22.9   1.6 |  9.42 | 17.11
    RP |   44.4 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.9   4.8  10.5  24.3  55.2   2.5 | 10.31 | 14.94
    SL |   17.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   4.0  95.1 | 11.94 |  8.20
    
       |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  240.9 |                                                     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.7   4.4   6.6   8.9  11.2  12.5  13.0  11.8  10.0   7.1   4.7   2.4   1.2   0.4   0.1 | 30.45
    Qu |  352.2 |                                                                             x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.3   4.3   7.6  10.8  14.7  15.6  16.2  12.0   9.1   3.8   1.8                         | 29.93
    Ya |  140.7 |                                                               0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.3   5.4   7.5  10.0  11.5  12.7  11.9  10.9   8.4   6.3   3.9   2.4   1.1   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 27.16
    Ck |  210.0 |                                               x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.6   2.7   4.4   6.3   8.5  10.2  11.7  11.9  11.5   9.7   7.8   5.4   3.5   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0       | 26.72
    Ha |  164.6 |                                             0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.2   4.1   6.2   9.0  11.1  13.1  12.9  12.5   9.9   7.6   4.6   2.8   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0                               | 24.63
    Da |   82.3 |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.4   2.6   4.6   6.7   9.4  11.1  12.7  12.3  11.6   9.2   7.1   4.7   3.0   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0             | 23.58
    Un |  164.6 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.9   4.6   7.1   9.1  11.6  12.3  12.8  11.1   9.6   6.7   4.7   2.5   1.4   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0                                     | 22.43
    Cg |   63.3 |                                 0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.6   4.2   6.7   8.8  11.1  12.1  12.5  11.2   9.5   7.2   5.1   3.2   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                   | 19.73
    Pr |   83.5 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.3   2.5   5.1   7.4  11.3  12.7  14.8  13.2  11.9   8.1   5.7   3.0   1.6   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0                                                             | 19.13
    Br |   64.7 |                           0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.9   3.3   5.7   8.0  10.8  12.0  13.0  12.0  10.5   8.0   5.8   3.6   2.2   1.1   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                     | 17.11
    RP |   44.4 |                                 0.4   1.1   3.3   5.4   9.4  11.5  14.2  13.7  13.0  10.1   7.6   4.8   2.9   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                       | 14.94
    SL |   17.9 |   1.6   4.1   8.6  12.3  15.2  15.4  13.9  10.9   7.7   4.8   2.8   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 |  8.20
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Qu    Ya    Ck    Ha    Da    Un    Cg    Pr    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.4   4.1 |  92.6
    Qu |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.4   0.9   3.7 |  94.5
    Ya |   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   2.2   1.9   4.5   6.9  14.5 |  67.9
    Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.3   0.8   2.4   2.6   5.4   8.1  15.3 |  63.4
    Ha |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1         0.7   1.2   5.6   6.4  10.8  15.1  20.4 |  35.2
    Da |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5         1.8   7.0   8.8  12.6  16.8  17.4 |  25.2
    Un |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.5         9.2  10.0  14.7  16.8  14.7 |  15.7
    Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.8   2.2   3.7        14.9  13.3  11.6   5.1 |   3.4
    Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.5   1.4   2.3   5.0   9.3        12.5  10.4   3.3 |   1.5
    Br |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.6   2.4   6.0   6.3         4.5   1.2 |   0.5
    RP |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.2   0.7   0.8   2.1   1.8   1.5         0.2 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

    Leave a comment:


  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
    What I was thinking for the upper/lower bounds for rankings is to assume all wins or all losses and then randomly assign results to the other games a number of times for each team. The issue is that it would add a significant amount of run time and that my sim is still unequipped to handle large ties.
    That's exactly what I was thinking, hence why I didn't ask for it, because it'd be at least 12 times as long. One thing's for sure though: I enjoy actually doing the posts you referenced manually, and understanding what needs to happen. I won't try it until after Freakout, though, because at this point it's still WAY too up in the air as to where things could go.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    It's all good; I was trying to figure out the best way to describe it to you while satisfying the "tl;dr" requirement. Theoretically you COULD do a min/max sort of scenario, but not only would it take way too long to run (I think you mentioned anywhere from 30 minutes to a couple hours for what you have now), but at this particular point in the season, it wouldn't be worth much. If I can get up the gumption to do something around my other projects, perhaps I'll help out when the time comes.
    What I was thinking for the upper/lower bounds for rankings is to assume all wins or all losses and then randomly assign results to the other games a number of times for each team. The issue is that it would add a significant amount of run time and that my sim is still unequipped to handle large ties.

    Leave a comment:


  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
    Oh man I'm dumb (as I said elsewhere, reading is hard), points would be easy. I can start doing that going forward, and today's post has been edited.
    It's all good; I was trying to figure out the best way to describe it to you while satisfying the "tl;dr" requirement. Theoretically you COULD do a min/max sort of scenario, but not only would it take way too long to run (I think you mentioned anywhere from 30 minutes to a couple hours for what you have now), but at this particular point in the season, it wouldn't be worth much. If I can get up the gumption to do something around my other projects, perhaps I'll help out when the time comes.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
    I don't think so, at least not in an automated fashion the way my program is currently set up. I could certainly go play with the [hostileandabusive]sports tool and figure it out for each team, but that's maybe more work than I'm willing to do. I personally enjoyed the posts you used to do to that end, but I understand that it is a bit of effort.
    Oh man I'm dumb (as I said elsewhere, reading is hard), points would be easy. I can start doing that going forward, and today's post has been edited.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 01-07-2019, 01:10 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    Just wondering... on the charts showing at least the points (might be a little difficult to do with ranks and matchups, seeing why you're doing predictions to begin with), is it possible to distinguish between what is impossible and what didn't happen in the simulations?
    I don't think so, at least not in an automated fashion the way my program is currently set up. I could certainly go play with the [hostileandabusive]sports tool and figure it out for each team, but that's maybe more work than I'm willing to do. I personally enjoyed the posts you used to do to that end, but I understand that it is a bit of effort.

    Leave a comment:


  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Just wondering... on the charts showing at least the points (might be a little difficult to do with ranks and matchups, seeing why you're doing predictions to begin with), is it possible to distinguish between what is impossible and what didn't happen in the simulations?

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Nowhere near a full slate last weekend, but we do actually see a decent number of position changes. Colgate pulled themselves out of the bottom four with a somewhat shocking four-point weekend, while Quinnipiac looks mortal after going 0-1-1. The bye line is still looking interesting, as positions 4-6 are separated by just over a point.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^39.60 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Cornell
    3. Yale
    4. Harvard
      —————
    5. Clarkson
    6. Union
    7. Dartmouth
    8. Colgate
      —————
    9. Princeton
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  417.7 |  58.6  23.6  10.6   4.5   1.8   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.70 | 31.19
    Cr |  178.8 |  18.0  31.2  21.3  13.2   8.0   4.5   2.3   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  2.92 | 28.75
    Ya |  171.6 |  14.9  22.0  25.1  17.0  10.3   5.8   2.9   1.3   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  3.25 | 27.97
    Ha |  172.5 |   2.2   6.8  12.9  17.9  18.5  16.4  12.2   7.5   3.9   1.4   0.3   0.0 |  5.14 | 24.68
    Ck |  185.8 |   3.6   7.5  12.0  16.1  17.0  15.4  12.2   8.5   5.1   2.1   0.5   0.0 |  5.22 | 24.43
    Un |  187.1 |   1.7   5.0   9.5  14.6  17.3  17.0  14.2  10.4   6.6   2.9   0.7   0.0 |  5.66 | 23.65
    Da |   75.6 |   0.8   2.6   5.4   9.2  12.9  16.0  17.5  15.6  11.6   6.3   2.2   0.1 |  6.59 | 22.32
    Cg |   83.4 |   0.2   1.0   2.6   5.5   9.4  14.0  18.7  20.9  15.4   8.5   3.4   0.3 |  7.26 | 21.16
    Pr |   84.3 |   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.4   3.2   6.3  11.1  17.9  26.0  22.3   9.9   1.1 |  8.63 | 18.69
    Br |   69.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.4   3.2   6.7  12.5  20.9  32.4  19.8   2.4 |  9.35 | 17.27
    RP |   44.3 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.8   4.2   9.2  21.8  53.3   8.6 | 10.43 | 14.59
    SL |   19.7 |     x   0.0   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.1   9.7  87.5 | 11.84 |  9.30
    
       |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  417.7 |                                                                 x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.3   4.2   6.7   9.9  12.6  14.9  14.6  13.4   9.4   6.3   2.5   1.1             | 31.19
    Cr |  178.8 |                                                     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.6   4.1   6.2   8.3  10.5  11.7  12.5  11.6  10.2   7.7   5.6   3.3   1.9   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0 | 28.75
    Ya |  171.6 |                                                                 x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.1   3.7   5.6   8.1  10.1  12.1  12.4  12.3  10.4   8.4   5.6   3.7   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 27.97
    Ha |  172.5 |                                   x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.4   6.3   8.7  10.4  12.0  12.1  11.7   9.6   7.7   5.1   3.3   1.8   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                   | 24.68
    Ck |  185.8 |                       x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.2   3.5   5.2   6.9   8.7  10.1  11.1  11.0  10.4   8.8   7.1   5.0   3.4   2.0   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0       | 24.43
    Un |  187.1 |                             x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   2.8   4.5   6.4   8.7  10.3  11.8  11.8  11.4   9.5   7.6   5.2   3.4   1.8   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0                         | 23.65
    Da |   75.6 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.5   5.3   7.5   9.4  11.2  11.7  11.7  10.2   8.6   6.3   4.6   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 22.32
    Cg |   83.4 |                                 0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.7   5.5   7.9   9.8  11.6  12.0  11.8  10.1   8.4   6.1   4.1   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 21.16
    Pr |   84.3 |                           0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.4   4.0   6.6   8.8  11.5  12.4  13.2  11.6  10.0   7.1   5.0   2.8   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                 | 18.69
    Br |   69.9 |                           0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.7   3.0   5.3   7.6  10.4  11.9  13.0  12.1  10.9   8.4   6.2   3.9   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                     | 17.27
    RP |   44.3 |                     0.1   0.3   1.1   2.2   4.5   6.9  10.0  11.8  13.3  12.7  11.4   9.0   6.7   4.4   2.7   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                           | 14.59
    SL |   19.7 |   0.7   2.1   4.9   8.1  11.5  13.7  14.2  13.1  10.8   8.1   5.5   3.4   2.0   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                         |  9.30
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Cr    Ya    Ha    Ck    Un    Da    Cg    Pr    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.6   1.6 |  97.3
    Cr |   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.4   1.6   2.2   3.6   7.5 |  83.8
    Ya |     x   0.0         0.1   0.2   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.6   2.8   4.8   9.7 |  79.0
    Ha |   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.6   0.7   1.7   3.1   7.1   9.7  13.6  18.1 |  39.9
    Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4         0.9   1.9   3.0   7.2   9.8  13.1  16.6 |  39.2
    Un |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.0         2.4   3.6   8.5  11.2  14.4  17.2 |  30.9
    Da |   0.0   0.1   0.1   1.0   1.2   1.6         5.2  11.0  13.1  15.3  13.3 |  17.9
    Cg |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.9   1.4   1.8   4.1        14.7  15.0  14.8  10.2 |   9.4
    Pr |   0.0   0.1   0.2   1.4   2.0   2.8   5.0   5.1        10.2   8.2   3.8 |   2.0
    Br |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8   1.0   1.6   3.2   4.9   6.0         4.5   1.7 |   0.6
    RP |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.3   0.5   1.1   1.6   1.5   1.4         0.3 |   0.1
    SL |   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 01-07-2019, 01:10 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    I don't have a whole lot of new analysis for you here. Quinnipiac is still flying high above everyone else, and the bottom four are firmly entrenching themselves in the basement. There's a little bit of intrigue at the bye-home border (or really the whole 4-8 region), but we've certainly seen tighter races. There aren't any more league games until January, but I will provide some updates here as KRACH values shift slightly.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^41.99 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Yale
    3. Cornell
    4. Union
      —————
    5. Harvard
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Clarkson
    8. Princeton
      —————
    9. Colgate
    10. RPI
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  605.2 |  85.5  11.9   2.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.18 | 34.84
    Ya |  223.3 |  10.9  48.1  23.6  10.0   4.4   1.9   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.59 | 29.77
    Cr |  133.9 |   2.5  21.6  27.3  19.1  12.9   8.3   4.9   2.3   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  3.81 | 26.97
    Un |  187.4 |   0.5   6.7  16.7  20.9  18.9  15.4  11.0   6.3   2.6   0.8   0.2   0.0 |  4.95 | 24.61
    Ha |  137.6 |   0.2   4.2  10.6  16.6  18.8  18.3  15.2   9.9   4.3   1.5   0.4   0.1 |  5.54 | 23.74
    Da |   77.8 |   0.3   4.3  10.1  15.0  17.4  17.7  15.6  11.1   5.5   2.2   0.7   0.1 |  5.70 | 23.42
    Ck |  113.9 |   0.2   2.4   6.9  11.3  14.9  17.3  18.4  15.5   8.4   3.5   1.2   0.1 |  6.27 | 22.26
    Pr |   69.9 |   0.0   0.7   2.4   5.4   9.3  14.0  19.1  22.6  14.9   7.7   3.3   0.6 |  7.30 | 20.51
    Cg |   52.2 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.8   1.8   3.7   7.4  14.1  23.6  23.7  18.1   6.6 |  9.27 | 16.71
    RP |   43.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.1   2.5   5.3  11.2  22.5  27.0  23.6   6.1 |  9.56 | 16.08
    Br |   34.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   2.2   6.1  15.2  27.1  35.5  12.9 | 10.23 | 14.68
    SL |   21.8 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   2.3   6.3  17.1  73.5 | 11.60 | 10.42
    
       |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  605.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.4   2.7   4.7   7.6  10.9  14.0  15.5  15.3  12.4   8.7   4.1   1.6 | 34.84
    Ya |  223.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.1   3.7   5.7   8.4  10.7  12.9  13.2  12.9  10.5   8.1   5.0   3.0   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0     x | 29.77
    Cr |  133.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.1   5.8   7.9   9.6  11.1  11.5  11.3   9.9   8.2   6.0   4.2   2.5   1.4   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 26.97
    Un |  187.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.7   4.3   6.5   8.6  10.8  11.9  12.6  11.4  10.0   7.4   5.2   3.0   1.7   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 24.61
    Ha |  137.6 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.7   4.3   6.3   8.3  10.3  11.5  12.1  11.2   9.9   7.6   5.6   3.5   2.0   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 23.74
    Da |   77.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   2.0   3.3   5.1   7.1   9.3  10.8  11.7  11.6  10.6   8.7   6.8   4.7   3.1   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 23.42
    Ck |  113.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.4   3.7   5.5   7.4   9.2  10.5  11.3  10.9  10.1   8.4   6.6   4.6   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 22.26
    Pr |   69.9 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.1   4.8   7.1   9.0  11.1  11.8  12.0  10.8   9.2   6.8   4.9   3.0   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 20.51
    Cg |   52.2 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.7   2.9   4.7   6.6   8.8  10.4  11.5  11.4  10.7   9.1   7.2   5.2   3.5   2.2   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.71
    RP |   43.8 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.0   3.6   6.0   8.2  10.6  11.9  12.5  11.6  10.1   7.9   5.8   3.8   2.3   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.08
    Br |   34.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   2.0   3.7   6.8   9.5  12.5  13.5  13.6  11.9   9.5   6.7   4.4   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.68
    SL |   21.8 |   0.3   0.9   2.6   4.8   7.8  10.5  12.7  13.2  12.7  10.8   8.6   6.1   4.0   2.4   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.42
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Ya    Cr    Un    Ha    Da    Ck    Pr    Cg    RP    Br    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1 |  99.9
    Ya |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.9   1.0   1.5   3.7 |  92.6
    Cr |     x   0.0         0.1   0.2   0.2   0.4   1.1   4.2   4.6   6.4  11.2 |  70.5
    Un |     x   0.0   0.1         0.4   0.5   1.1   2.2   8.6   9.6  11.9  17.3 |  44.8
    Ha |     x   0.0   0.1   0.3         0.7   1.3   3.2  11.4  12.4  14.6  18.2 |  31.6
    Da |     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8         1.5   3.3  11.4  12.7  14.4  17.3 |  29.8
    Ck |     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.1         4.3  13.6  14.5  15.9  15.3 |  20.7
    Pr |     x   0.0   0.2   0.8   1.2   1.8   2.8        14.8  16.1  16.3  11.2 |   8.5
    Cg |     x   0.0   0.2   0.8   1.1   1.6   3.0   5.9         6.1   5.7   2.6 |   1.1
    RP |     x   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.3   1.6   2.1   3.8   4.9         3.8   1.8 |   0.6
    Br |     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.7   0.9   2.2   2.1   2.1         0.5 |   0.1
    SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.1       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X