Dawn Of
The Seventeenth Day (of February)
--- 24 games remain ---
The new projections are basically a series of ties. Cornell and Quinnipiac will fight for first place, followed by Yale, Harvard, and Clarkson are in a tight race for the last two byes, then an effective three-way tie for sixth between Brown, Union, and Dartmouth, and finally the bottom four slightly more spread out.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^11.45 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
- Cornell
- Quinnipiac
- Yale
- Harvard
————— - Clarkson
- Brown
- Union
- Dartmouth
————— - RPI
- Colgate
- Princeton
- SLU
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cr | 239.0 | 46.9 37.9 10.3 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 x x x x x | 1.74 | 30.48 Qu | 368.3 | 43.1 34.2 13.6 6.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 1.92 | 29.90 Ya | 146.1 | 4.4 11.2 25.7 25.3 24.6 7.2 1.5 0.2 x x x x | 3.83 | 27.12 Ha | 193.0 | 1.3 7.9 27.9 25.9 26.8 7.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 x x x | 4.03 | 26.92 Ck | 202.4 | 4.2 8.7 21.5 33.4 26.1 5.1 0.9 0.1 x x x x | 3.88 | 26.66 Br | 99.0 | x 0.0 0.3 1.5 6.0 32.1 32.5 26.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 x | 6.79 | 22.52 Un | 160.0 | x 0.0 0.2 1.5 6.2 25.5 34.5 28.9 3.0 0.2 0.0 x | 6.92 | 22.48 Da | 79.8 | 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 6.8 22.3 27.4 36.9 3.6 0.0 0.0 x | 6.99 | 22.47 RP | 62.5 | x x x x 0.0 0.1 0.7 5.3 53.0 29.3 11.6 x | 9.46 | 17.03 Cg | 52.0 | x x x x x 0.0 0.2 1.8 34.1 50.0 13.9 0.0 | 9.75 | 16.36 Pr | 60.5 | x x x x x x 0.0 0.2 4.9 20.4 73.9 0.6 | 10.70 | 14.41 SL | 19.5 | x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.6 99.4 | 11.99 | 7.65 | KRACH | 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 |AvgPts --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cr | 239.0 | 0.2 0.6 3.6 6.3 18.3 16.7 28.8 12.2 13.4 | 30.48 Qu | 368.3 | 0.1 0.3 2.0 4.2 13.4 15.4 29.5 15.9 19.4 | 29.90 Ya | 146.1 | 2.4 3.5 14.6 13.5 26.9 14.5 17.2 4.3 3.2 | 27.12 Ha | 193.0 | 0.9 1.6 7.9 9.3 22.4 16.1 24.4 8.7 8.7 | 26.92 Ck | 202.4 | 0.9 1.8 9.2 10.8 25.9 16.5 22.7 6.5 5.6 | 26.66 Br | 99.0 | 5.0 5.9 20.7 15.8 26.0 11.7 11.2 2.4 1.4 | 22.52 Un | 160.0 | 1.5 2.5 11.4 11.7 25.5 15.6 20.7 6.0 5.2 | 22.48 Da | 79.8 | 5.9 6.5 21.0 15.5 24.6 11.2 11.1 2.5 1.7 | 22.47 RP | 62.5 | 8.5 8.7 25.3 16.6 22.6 8.9 7.2 1.4 0.7 | 17.03 Cg | 52.0 | 5.0 6.3 23.2 16.8 26.0 10.9 9.2 1.8 0.9 | 16.36 Pr | 60.5 | 4.6 6.0 23.1 16.7 25.7 11.0 9.7 2.0 1.1 | 14.41 SL | 19.5 | 27.1 20.4 28.3 13.0 8.2 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 | 7.65 Bold is each team's most likely outcome. 0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times. x means the outcome never occurred. A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
Code:
| Cr Qu Ya Ha Ck Br Un Da RP Cg Pr SL | BYE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Cr | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 | 98.9 Qu | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.5 | 97.2 Ya | x x x x 0.0 0.0 x 1.7 2.0 5.2 24.5 | 66.6 Ha | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.5 6.4 26.6 | 63.0 Ck | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.1 3.8 25.9 | 67.9 Br | x x x x x 0.3 0.1 27.5 27.9 34.8 6.2 | 1.8 Un | x x x x x 0.1 0.3 27.8 34.7 25.8 6.4 | 1.7 Da | x x x x x 0.1 0.2 33.9 29.0 23.2 6.9 | 2.9 RP | x x x 0.0 x 0.4 1.7 3.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 | NO Cg | x x x x x 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 x | NO Pr | x x x x x 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x | NO SL | x x x x x x x x x x x | NO Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
Theoretically you COULD do a min/max sort of scenario, but not only would it take way too long to run (I think you mentioned anywhere from 30 minutes to a couple hours for what you have now), but at this particular point in the season, it wouldn't be worth much. If I can get up the gumption to do something around my other projects, perhaps I'll help out when the time comes.
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