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ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

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  • #16
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    A little shake-up at the top has Cornell just ahead of Quinnipiac, though they're basically tied. Further, while the bye line is seeing a little separation, the home-road line is separated by just about half a point, as Colgate and Princeton fight for the right to host.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^35.78 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Yale
    4. Clarkson
      —————
    5. Harvard
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Union
    8. Colgate
      —————
    9. Princeton
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  240.9 |  40.4  28.2  15.6   8.5   4.3   2.0   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.19 | 30.45
    Qu |  352.2 |  35.8  32.0  17.6   9.0   3.8   1.3   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.19 | 29.93
    Ya |  140.7 |  10.1  15.5  22.1  20.3  14.8   9.2   4.8   2.1   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  3.79 | 27.16
    Ck |  210.0 |  10.4  14.0  19.3  19.6  15.6  10.5   6.0   2.9   1.3   0.3   0.0   0.0 |  3.96 | 26.72
    Ha |  164.6 |   1.5   4.9  11.6  17.2  20.5  19.1  13.7   7.1   3.3   1.0   0.2   0.0 |  5.26 | 24.63
    Da |   82.3 |   1.2   3.3   8.0  12.7  17.3  19.6  17.2  11.1   6.2   2.6   0.7   0.0 |  5.86 | 23.58
    Un |  164.6 |   0.6   1.8   4.5   8.8  14.6  18.9  19.7  14.8  10.2   4.8   1.4   0.0 |  6.50 | 22.43
    Cg |   63.3 |   0.1   0.3   0.9   2.2   4.9   9.3  15.8  22.3  21.5  14.6   7.9   0.4 |  8.12 | 19.73
    Pr |   83.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.2   3.0   6.8  13.3  22.0  26.4  19.1   7.6   0.3 |  8.46 | 19.13
    Br |   64.7 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.1   2.8   6.4  12.5  19.7  32.4  22.9   1.6 |  9.42 | 17.11
    RP |   44.4 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.9   4.8  10.5  24.3  55.2   2.5 | 10.31 | 14.94
    SL |   17.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   4.0  95.1 | 11.94 |  8.20
    
       |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  240.9 |                                                     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.7   4.4   6.6   8.9  11.2  12.5  13.0  11.8  10.0   7.1   4.7   2.4   1.2   0.4   0.1 | 30.45
    Qu |  352.2 |                                                                             x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.3   4.3   7.6  10.8  14.7  15.6  16.2  12.0   9.1   3.8   1.8                         | 29.93
    Ya |  140.7 |                                                               0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.3   5.4   7.5  10.0  11.5  12.7  11.9  10.9   8.4   6.3   3.9   2.4   1.1   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 27.16
    Ck |  210.0 |                                               x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.6   2.7   4.4   6.3   8.5  10.2  11.7  11.9  11.5   9.7   7.8   5.4   3.5   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0       | 26.72
    Ha |  164.6 |                                             0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.2   4.1   6.2   9.0  11.1  13.1  12.9  12.5   9.9   7.6   4.6   2.8   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0                               | 24.63
    Da |   82.3 |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.4   2.6   4.6   6.7   9.4  11.1  12.7  12.3  11.6   9.2   7.1   4.7   3.0   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0             | 23.58
    Un |  164.6 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.9   4.6   7.1   9.1  11.6  12.3  12.8  11.1   9.6   6.7   4.7   2.5   1.4   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0                                     | 22.43
    Cg |   63.3 |                                 0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.6   4.2   6.7   8.8  11.1  12.1  12.5  11.2   9.5   7.2   5.1   3.2   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                   | 19.73
    Pr |   83.5 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.3   2.5   5.1   7.4  11.3  12.7  14.8  13.2  11.9   8.1   5.7   3.0   1.6   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0                                                             | 19.13
    Br |   64.7 |                           0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.9   3.3   5.7   8.0  10.8  12.0  13.0  12.0  10.5   8.0   5.8   3.6   2.2   1.1   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                     | 17.11
    RP |   44.4 |                                 0.4   1.1   3.3   5.4   9.4  11.5  14.2  13.7  13.0  10.1   7.6   4.8   2.9   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                       | 14.94
    SL |   17.9 |   1.6   4.1   8.6  12.3  15.2  15.4  13.9  10.9   7.7   4.8   2.8   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 |  8.20
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Qu    Ya    Ck    Ha    Da    Un    Cg    Pr    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.4   4.1 |  92.6
    Qu |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.4   0.9   3.7 |  94.5
    Ya |   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   2.2   1.9   4.5   6.9  14.5 |  67.9
    Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.3   0.8   2.4   2.6   5.4   8.1  15.3 |  63.4
    Ha |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1         0.7   1.2   5.6   6.4  10.8  15.1  20.4 |  35.2
    Da |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5         1.8   7.0   8.8  12.6  16.8  17.4 |  25.2
    Un |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.5         9.2  10.0  14.7  16.8  14.7 |  15.7
    Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.8   2.2   3.7        14.9  13.3  11.6   5.1 |   3.4
    Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.5   1.4   2.3   5.0   9.3        12.5  10.4   3.3 |   1.5
    Br |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.6   2.4   6.0   6.3         4.5   1.2 |   0.5
    RP |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.2   0.7   0.8   2.1   1.8   1.5         0.2 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

      We stand here just one game shy of the halfway point of the season and Cornell might be pulling away a little bit. Meanwhile SLU has all but locked up the first overall draft pick. There's relatively little action at the breakpoints, which are both separated by about one win at present. The middle is a jumble as Union underperforms (ahahahahahahaha) and Dartmouth/Yale are somewhat above their station.

      Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^31.97 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
      1. Cornell
      2. Quinnipiac
      3. Clarkson
      4. Yale
        —————
      5. Harvard
      6. Dartmouth
      7. Union
      8. Princeton
        —————
      9. Colgate
      10. Brown
      11. RPI
      12. SLU

      Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

      Rank and Points breakdown:
      Code:
         |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
      -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Cr |  308.7 |  62.1  24.5   9.3   3.0   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.57 | 32.66
      Qu |  393.0 |  22.6  40.7  21.8   9.9   3.6   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.35 | 30.17
      Ck |  236.4 |  12.1  20.8  28.8  18.3  10.8   5.8   2.4   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  3.27 | 28.29
      Ya |  133.5 |   2.4   8.5  17.9  25.5  20.5  14.0   7.3   2.9   0.8   0.2   0.0     x |  4.46 | 26.21
      Ha |  170.1 |   0.2   2.2   9.7  17.3  23.0  22.7  16.2   6.5   1.8   0.4   0.1   0.0 |  5.40 | 24.42
      Da |   87.2 |   0.3   2.2   8.4  15.5  21.1  22.8  17.7   7.9   2.9   0.9   0.2   0.0 |  5.59 | 24.01
      Un |  171.3 |   0.2   1.1   3.7   8.9  15.2  20.0  22.8  15.2   8.2   3.6   1.1   0.0 |  6.48 | 22.42
      Pr |   87.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.3   3.4   8.0  16.9  27.4  22.4  14.0   6.2   0.1 |  8.19 | 19.33
      Cg |   55.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.8   2.6   8.1  18.9  26.3  23.7  18.7   0.6 |  9.15 | 17.53
      Br |   59.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.8   5.4  12.8  21.5  30.5  27.1   0.2 |  9.53 | 16.58
      RP |   50.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   2.9   7.6  15.9  26.6  45.3   0.6 | 10.02 | 15.39
      SL |   15.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.3  98.6 | 11.98 |  6.98
      
         |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Cr |  308.7 |                                                                             x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.8   3.3   5.6   8.4  11.6  13.7  15.0  13.5  11.5   7.3   4.5   1.6   0.7 | 32.66
      Qu |  393.0 |                                                                             x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   3.6   6.6   9.9  14.1  15.8  16.9  13.2  10.2   4.4   2.2                         | 30.17
      Ck |  236.4 |                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.7   1.6   2.8   4.9   7.0   9.8  11.5  13.2  12.6  11.7   9.0   6.7   3.9   2.3   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0       | 28.29
      Ya |  133.5 |                                                                           0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.4   3.0   4.8   7.8   9.9  12.7  13.0  13.3  11.0   9.0   5.9   3.9   1.9   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0             | 26.21
      Ha |  170.1 |                                                           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   4.0   6.3  10.0  12.1  14.9  13.9  13.4   9.3   6.9   3.3   1.8   0.5   0.2                                           | 24.42
      Da |   87.2 |                                                               0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.4   3.2   5.2   8.4  10.7  13.5  13.5  13.3  10.6   8.3   5.2   3.2   1.5   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 24.01
      Un |  171.3 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.9   4.5   7.0   9.2  11.7  12.5  12.9  11.2   9.6   6.7   4.6   2.5   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0                                     | 22.42
      Pr |   87.5 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.1   4.5   6.7  10.6  12.4  15.0  13.5  12.6   8.8   6.3   3.3   1.8   0.6   0.3   0.0   0.0                                                             | 19.33
      Cg |   55.8 |                                 0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   2.2   3.9   7.0   9.6  12.7  13.5  13.8  11.7   9.5   6.4   4.2   2.3   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                           | 17.53
      Br |   59.6 |                                       0.2   0.6   2.1   3.7   7.1   9.5  12.9  13.5  14.0  11.8   9.5   6.4   4.2   2.3   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                 | 16.58
      RP |   50.7 |                                 0.3   0.7   2.4   4.2   7.8  10.2  13.4  13.7  13.8  11.3   8.9   6.0   3.8   2.0   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                       | 15.39
      SL |   15.4 |   4.0   8.5  14.7  17.3  17.5  14.4  10.4   6.5   3.6   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                         |  6.98
      Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
      0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
      x means the outcome never occurred.
      A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
      Playoff Matchups:
      Code:
         |    Cr    Qu    Ck    Ya    Ha    Da    Un    Pr    Cg    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Cr |           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.8 |  98.9
      Qu |     x         0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.3   0.6   3.6 |  95.0
      Ck |     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.8   2.7   3.7  10.7 |  80.0
      Ya |     x     x   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.6   2.0   5.6   6.9   9.1  20.4 |  54.2
      Ha |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1         0.2   0.8   5.0  10.7  12.7  16.0  23.0 |  29.4
      Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2         0.9   5.9  11.4  13.1  16.7  21.2 |  26.5
      Un |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5         8.0  15.2  16.3  17.5  15.2 |  13.9
      Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.0   4.0        14.9  16.6  14.5   3.5 |   1.6
      Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   3.1  11.5         8.0   5.7   0.8 |   0.3
      Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   2.0   6.3   6.1         4.4   0.6 |   0.2
      RP |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   3.2   3.3   2.6         0.3 |   0.1
      SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
      Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
      Last edited by lugnut92; 01-21-2019, 10:58 AM.
      RPI Pep Band
      GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
      🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

      2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
      2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
      2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

        We're past the halfway point! Right now, Cornell and Quinnipiac are in a dogfight for first overall, Yale has dropped out of the bye, and it's a ****ing mess between 8th and 10th, with none of Brown, Colgate, or Princeton favored to actually take the final home spot. Meanwhile, SLU is almost locked in last.

        Fun fact, we can still have the fabled 12-way tie for first. Pray for Team Chaos!

        Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^27.20 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
        1. Cornell
        2. Quinnipiac
        3. Clarkson
        4. Harvard
          —————
        5. Yale
        6. Dartmouth
        7. Union
        8. Brown
          —————
        9. Colgate
        10. Princeton
        11. RPI
        12. SLU

        Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

        Rank and Points breakdown:
        Code:
           |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
        -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Cr |  266.0 |  48.4  32.4  12.1   4.7   1.8   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.81 | 31.25
        Qu |  398.1 |  37.0  34.9  15.7   7.5   3.4   1.1   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.10 | 30.28
        Ck |  215.6 |  10.4  15.6  23.6  22.0  15.1   8.0   3.3   1.4   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  3.63 | 27.33
        Ha |  200.5 |   1.6   8.3  24.6  24.6  19.8  12.8   5.7   2.0   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  4.28 | 26.44
        Ya |  125.3 |   2.1   6.1  13.5  20.0  23.6  18.7   9.4   4.3   1.7   0.5   0.0     x |  4.86 | 25.49
        Da |   89.8 |   0.4   2.2   8.0  14.0  20.0  23.7  16.4   9.5   4.3   1.4   0.1     x |  5.72 | 24.04
        Un |  151.3 |   0.1   0.4   1.7   4.1   8.0  14.4  20.2  19.8  16.8  13.0   1.4   0.0 |  7.46 | 21.23
        Br |   77.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   2.9   7.7  15.6  21.2  24.1  25.6   1.8   0.0 |  8.36 | 19.66
        Cg |   66.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.4   6.2  15.1  21.3  26.0  22.3   5.6   0.0 |  8.48 | 19.55
        Pr |   88.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.2   3.1   6.9  13.6  19.6  23.4  27.2   4.4   0.0 |  8.48 | 19.43
        RP |   42.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.7   9.7  85.9   0.7 | 10.82 | 13.18
        SL |   14.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.8  99.2 | 11.99 |  6.11
        
           |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37 |AvgPts
        ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Cr |  266.0 |                                                                                         x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   3.9   6.5  10.3  12.9  15.8  14.8  13.9   9.0   6.2   2.3   1.0 | 31.25
        Qu |  398.1 |                                                                             x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.3   6.2   9.5  13.6  15.7  17.1  13.7  10.8   4.8   2.4             | 30.28
        Ck |  215.6 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.5   4.2   7.2   9.6  13.0  13.5  14.3  11.6   9.8   6.0   3.9   1.7   0.8   0.2   0.1       | 27.33
        Ha |  200.5 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   3.4   5.6  10.0  12.4  16.7  14.9  15.3   9.2   6.9   2.2   1.2                               | 26.44
        Ya |  125.3 |                                                                                       0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   4.1   6.1  10.4  12.0  15.2  13.7  13.3   9.1   6.8   3.5   2.0   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0             | 25.49
        Da |   89.8 |                                                                           0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.7   4.5   8.4  10.7  14.7  14.1  14.7  10.8   8.6   4.7   2.9   1.1   0.5   0.1   0.0                         | 24.04
        Un |  151.3 |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.4   2.5   5.0   7.1  10.7  12.1  14.2  12.9  12.0   8.5   6.3   3.4   1.9   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0                                     | 21.23
        Br |   77.4 |                                                               0.5   1.0   3.6   5.6  10.4  12.3  15.6  14.1  13.4   9.4   6.9   3.7   2.1   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                     | 19.66
        Cg |   66.1 |                                             0.0   0.0   0.3   0.7   1.9   3.5   6.8   9.3  13.1  13.8  14.9  12.0  10.1   6.3   4.1   1.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                                           | 19.55
        Pr |   88.9 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.0   4.2   6.5  10.4  12.2  14.8  13.6  12.8   9.0   6.6   3.6   2.0   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0                                                 | 19.43
        RP |   42.5 |                                 1.7   3.4   8.7  11.3  16.1  15.5  15.2  11.1   8.2   4.6   2.6   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                   | 13.18
        SL |   14.5 |   7.8  13.7  20.0  19.4  16.3  10.9   6.4   3.2   1.4   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                     |  6.11
        Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
        0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
        x means the outcome never occurred.
        A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
        Playoff Matchups:
        Code:
           |    Cr    Qu    Ck    Ha    Ya    Da    Un    Br    Cg    Pr    RP    SL |   BYE
        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Cr |           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.7 |  97.6
        Qu |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   1.0   3.3 |  95.1
        Ck |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   1.7   1.3   1.2   7.4  15.1 |  71.7
        Ha |   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.7   2.2   3.0   2.9  11.7  19.7 |  59.1
        Ya |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.2   2.5   4.1   4.5   3.7  17.3  23.6 |  41.7
        Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2         2.8   6.6   8.9   8.4  22.6  20.0 |  24.6
        Un |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.3        10.9  14.2  12.4  14.8   8.0 |   6.3
        Br |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   1.5   8.1        12.2  12.9   9.0   2.9 |   1.2
        Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.1   8.3  12.5        13.1   7.0   2.4 |   1.1
        Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   7.7  13.2   9.2         7.8   3.1 |   1.6
        RP |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.2         0.0 |   0.0
        SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
        Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
        Last edited by lugnut92; 01-27-2019, 11:53 PM.
        RPI Pep Band
        GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
        🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

        2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
        2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
        2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

          We enter the final month of the season with a super tight race at the top, a close fight for the final bye, and a meaningless dogfight for 9th. In a fun twist of the Monte Carlo, Quinnipiac falls down to 9th place exactly once, putting a weird blemish on the playoff table below.

          Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^22.42 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
          1. Quinnipiac
          2. Cornell
          3. Clarkson
          4. Harvard
            —————
          5. Yale
          6. Dartmouth
          7. Union
          8. Brown
            —————
          9. Colgate
          10. Princeton
          11. RPI
          12. SLU

          Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

          Rank and Points breakdown:
          Code:
             |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
          -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Qu |  439.4 |  50.5  31.7  11.1   4.6   1.7   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.76 | 31.34
          Cr |  268.8 |  38.5  39.2  14.0   5.9   2.0   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.95 | 31.30
          Ck |  217.3 |   5.9  12.5  23.9  27.5  21.8   7.0   1.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.74 | 27.41
          Ha |  214.9 |   1.6   8.0  29.1  27.2  22.8   8.8   2.2   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.98 | 27.20
          Ya |  138.2 |   3.5   8.2  18.9  25.9  28.0  12.6   2.5   0.4   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  4.17 | 26.82
          Da |   81.8 |   0.0   0.3   2.3   6.4  15.0  36.1  24.0  11.0   3.5   1.0   0.2   0.0 |  6.25 | 22.85
          Un |  144.2 |   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.3   7.2  23.5  32.3  20.1   8.8   3.9   1.3   0.0 |  7.07 | 21.14
          Br |   71.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.0   8.4  22.0  29.5  20.1  13.3   5.6   0.0 |  8.21 | 18.93
          Cg |   54.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.1   6.7  17.3  27.0  26.4  20.3   0.9 |  9.35 | 16.89
          Pr |   68.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   5.9  12.9  19.9  27.5  31.1   1.2 |  9.64 | 16.20
          RP |   54.4 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.7   3.1   8.4  20.6  27.6  39.4   0.2 |  9.90 | 15.79
          SL |   19.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.1  97.6 | 11.97 |  8.12
          
             |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36 |AvgPts
          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Qu |  439.4 |                                                                                         x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.1   2.7   5.1   9.5  13.3  18.4  17.3  17.3   8.9   5.8       | 31.34
          Cr |  268.8 |                                                                                             0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.4   3.0   6.3   9.4  14.6  15.8  18.3  13.0  10.9   4.2   2.4 | 31.30
          Ck |  217.3 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.6   3.1   6.6   9.2  14.3  14.6  16.9  12.4  10.7   5.2   3.3   0.8   0.4             | 27.41
          Ha |  214.9 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.6   3.0   6.9   9.6  15.8  15.5  18.6  12.0  10.5   3.6   2.2                         | 27.20
          Ya |  138.2 |                                                                                       0.1   0.2   1.1   2.2   5.5   7.8  13.3  14.0  17.0  13.2  11.9   6.6   4.3   1.6   0.8   0.1   0.0       | 26.82
          Da |   81.8 |                                                               0.1   0.2   1.2   2.2   5.6   7.9  13.1  13.6  16.7  13.1  11.9   6.8   4.7   1.8   0.9   0.2   0.1                               | 22.85
          Un |  144.2 |                                                   0.1   0.2   0.9   1.8   4.6   6.8  11.9  13.1  16.7  13.8  13.1   7.7   5.6   2.2   1.2   0.2   0.1                                           | 21.14
          Br |   71.9 |                                                   0.8   1.5   5.3   7.6  13.7  14.4  17.4  13.6  11.7   6.8   4.3   1.8   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                                           | 18.93
          Cg |   54.0 |                                 0.2   0.5   2.4   4.1   9.3  11.5  16.8  15.1  15.6  10.3   7.7   3.6   1.9   0.6   0.3   0.0   0.0                                                             | 16.89
          Pr |   68.5 |                           0.2   0.5   2.1   3.6   8.1  10.3  15.4  14.5  15.8  11.1   9.2   4.7   2.9   1.0   0.5   0.1   0.0                                                                   | 16.20
          RP |   54.4 |                                       2.2   3.6  10.5  12.1  18.7  15.6  15.8   9.7   6.8   3.0   1.5   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                   | 15.79
          SL |   19.0 |   8.4  12.3  20.5  18.9  17.0  11.0   6.7   3.2   1.4   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                           |  8.12
          Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
          0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
          x means the outcome never occurred.
          A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
          Playoff Matchups:
          Code:
             |    Qu    Cr    Ck    Ha    Ya    Da    Un    Br    Cg    Pr    RP    SL |   BYE
          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Qu |           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   1.7 |  98.0
          Cr |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.1   1.9 |  97.7
          Ck |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.5   2.7   3.7  21.5 |  69.7
          Ha |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.9   4.0   4.1  22.4 |  65.9
          Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.3   1.3   3.5   4.0   6.8  27.6 |  56.5
          Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.4   6.8  17.7  19.8  24.9  15.5 |   9.1
          Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.8         9.5  21.6  21.5  21.9   7.6 |   3.0
          Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.2   4.3        19.1  17.0  17.9   1.4 |   0.2
          Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   2.8   9.5         8.1   4.1   0.2 |   0.0
          Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   2.7   7.9   4.7         4.2   0.2 |   0.0
          RP |   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.5   2.2   2.5   3.6   2.4         0.1 |   0.0
          SL |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
          Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
          RPI Pep Band
          GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
          🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

          2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
          2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
          2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

            The Harvard pity game on Tuesday notwithstanding, we're all done with non-conference games. Three more weekends, 36 more games, it truly is the most wonderful time of the year. As for the actual projectoins, a couple things. First, what the **** is Brown doing in the top half? Linked to that, Quinnipiac has given up the first spot by losing to BROWN. Union is still massively underperforming. It's almost like giving 4 points to RPI wasn't a good look. Everyone is pretty well locked into their first round tier. Clarkson and Yale are close-ish but not really, and the logjam at 9th is much ado about nothing unless Union or Dartmouth lose a couple games they're not supposed to.

            Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^17.18 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
            1. Cornell
            2. Quinnipiac
            3. Harvard
            4. Clarkson
              —————
            5. Yale
            6. Brown
            7. Dartmouth
            8. Union
              —————
            9. Colgate
            10. Princeton
            11. RPI
            12. SLU

            Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

            Rank and Points breakdown:
            Code:
               |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
            -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Cr |  286.3 |  74.5  20.3   4.1   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.32 | 32.57
            Qu |  380.2 |  20.9  50.7  19.6   6.7   1.7   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.19 | 30.06
            Ha |  200.2 |   1.8  16.1  41.0  25.8  11.4   3.1   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.42 | 27.88
            Ck |  207.8 |   2.6  10.8  26.0  39.4  15.7   4.1   1.1   0.2   0.0     x     x     x |  3.72 | 26.96
            Ya |  119.1 |   0.3   1.9   7.8  19.3  39.4  19.0   8.5   3.2   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  5.06 | 24.72
            Br |   93.3 |   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.1  12.5  33.3  27.0  16.3   5.3   1.5   0.2     x |  6.61 | 22.16
            Da |   74.5 |     x   0.0   0.5   3.3  11.8  20.6  25.0  28.5   8.0   2.0   0.3     x |  6.96 | 21.67
            Un |  141.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.5   6.9  17.5  29.6  27.9  10.8   4.4   1.1     x |  7.30 | 21.10
            Cg |   54.3 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   0.9   3.2   9.1  31.1  31.2  24.3   0.0 |  9.61 | 16.97
            Pr |   71.1 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   0.9   3.1   8.3  22.7  32.9  31.7   0.2 |  9.79 | 16.56
            RP |   57.1 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.7   6.5  21.5  27.8  42.2   0.0 | 10.02 | 16.11
            SL |   17.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2  99.8 | 12.00 |  7.24
            
               |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36 |AvgPts
            ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Cr |  286.3 |                                                                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.9   3.8   9.1  12.1  19.9  17.2  19.8   8.7   6.8 | 32.57
            Qu |  380.2 |                                                                                                   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   1.0   2.3   6.1   9.8  17.6  18.0  22.8  12.0  10.1                   | 30.06
            Ha |  200.2 |                                                                                             0.0   0.1   0.5   1.3   4.1   6.5  13.5  14.6  21.0  14.6  14.9   5.3   3.7                         | 27.88
            Ck |  207.8 |                                                                                             0.1   0.3   1.6   3.0   8.2  10.4  18.4  15.8  19.2  10.4   8.8   2.4   1.4                         | 26.96
            Ya |  119.1 |                                                                                       0.6   1.3   5.4   7.3  15.6  14.8  20.3  13.2  12.3   5.1   3.2   0.7   0.3                               | 24.72
            Br |   93.3 |                                                                           1.2   2.2   8.1   9.8  18.5  15.7  18.9  11.0   9.0   3.3   1.8   0.4   0.1                                           | 22.16
            Da |   74.5 |                                                                     0.6   1.2   5.6   7.6  16.2  15.0  20.0  12.9  11.8   4.9   3.2   0.7   0.3                                                 | 21.67
            Un |  141.4 |                                                               0.4   0.8   3.8   5.8  13.4  13.8  20.4  14.4  14.6   6.6   4.6   1.0   0.5                                                       | 21.10
            Cg |   54.3 |                                             1.3   2.4   9.2  10.9  19.7  15.9  18.1  10.1   7.7   2.8   1.5   0.3   0.1                                                                         | 16.97
            Pr |   71.1 |                                       0.7   1.4   6.0   8.1  16.8  15.3  19.9  12.5  11.1   4.5   2.9   0.6   0.3                                                                               | 16.56
            RP |   57.1 |                                             3.6   5.2  14.9  14.8  21.2  14.7  13.5   6.4   3.9   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0                                                                         | 16.11
            SL |   17.9 |  16.8  18.3  25.5  17.5  12.5   5.7   2.6   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                                                   |  7.24
            Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
            0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
            x means the outcome never occurred.
            A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
            Playoff Matchups:
            Code:
               |    Cr    Qu    Ha    Ck    Ya    Br    Da    Un    Cg    Pr    RP    SL |   BYE
            ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1 |  99.8
            Qu |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.1   1.7 |  97.8
            Ha |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.2   1.5   1.3  11.4 |  84.5
            Ck |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.4   1.6   2.2  15.7 |  78.9
            Ya |     x     x     x   0.0         0.3   0.2   0.8   8.3   9.5  11.5  39.3 |  29.4
            Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.2   3.5  22.6  24.6  24.5  12.6 |   3.9
            Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9         2.7  23.6  21.8  24.9  11.9 |   3.8
            Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.2   2.7        25.5  23.3  22.2   6.9 |   1.8
            Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.6   1.4   3.0         3.9   2.2   0.2 |   0.0
            Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.6   1.9   3.8   2.3         2.5   0.2 |   0.0`
            RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.9   2.3   1.7   1.2         0.0 |   0.0
            SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
            Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
            RPI Pep Band
            GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
            🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

            2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
            2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
            2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

              If KRATCH were to take injuries into account, it’s unlikely Cornell would be at 75% for 1st place, as the Big Red lost 2 key players this weekend.

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

                Dawn Of
                The Seventeenth Day (of February)
                --- 24 games remain ---

                The new projections are basically a series of ties. Cornell and Quinnipiac will fight for first place, followed by Yale, Harvard, and Clarkson are in a tight race for the last two byes, then an effective three-way tie for sixth between Brown, Union, and Dartmouth, and finally the bottom four slightly more spread out.

                Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^11.45 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
                1. Cornell
                2. Quinnipiac
                3. Yale
                4. Harvard
                  —————
                5. Clarkson
                6. Brown
                7. Union
                8. Dartmouth
                  —————
                9. RPI
                10. Colgate
                11. Princeton
                12. SLU

                Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                Rank and Points breakdown:
                Code:
                   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Cr |  239.0 |  46.9  37.9  10.3   3.7   1.0   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.74 | 30.48
                Qu |  368.3 |  43.1  34.2  13.6   6.3   2.5   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.92 | 29.90
                Ya |  146.1 |   4.4  11.2  25.7  25.3  24.6   7.2   1.5   0.2     x     x     x     x |  3.83 | 27.12
                Ha |  193.0 |   1.3   7.9  27.9  25.9  26.8   7.5   2.3   0.4   0.0     x     x     x |  4.03 | 26.92
                Ck |  202.4 |   4.2   8.7  21.5  33.4  26.1   5.1   0.9   0.1     x     x     x     x |  3.88 | 26.66
                Br |   99.0 |     x   0.0   0.3   1.5   6.0  32.1  32.5  26.2   1.3   0.0   0.0     x |  6.79 | 22.52
                Un |  160.0 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.5   6.2  25.5  34.5  28.9   3.0   0.2   0.0     x |  6.92 | 22.48
                Da |   79.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.6   2.3   6.8  22.3  27.4  36.9   3.6   0.0   0.0     x |  6.99 | 22.47
                RP |   62.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   5.3  53.0  29.3  11.6     x |  9.46 | 17.03
                Cg |   52.0 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.8  34.1  50.0  13.9   0.0 |  9.75 | 16.36
                Pr |   60.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   4.9  20.4  73.9   0.6 | 10.70 | 14.41
                SL |   19.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.6  99.4 | 11.99 |  7.65
                
                   |  KRACH |     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33 |AvgPts
                ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Cr |  239.0 |                                                                                                                     0.2   0.6   3.6   6.3  18.3  16.7  28.8  12.2  13.4 | 30.48
                Qu |  368.3 |                                                                                                               0.1   0.3   2.0   4.2  13.4  15.4  29.5  15.9  19.4       | 29.90
                Ya |  146.1 |                                                                                                         2.4   3.5  14.6  13.5  26.9  14.5  17.2   4.3   3.2             | 27.12
                Ha |  193.0 |                                                                                                   0.9   1.6   7.9   9.3  22.4  16.1  24.4   8.7   8.7                   | 26.92
                Ck |  202.4 |                                                                                                   0.9   1.8   9.2  10.8  25.9  16.5  22.7   6.5   5.6                   | 26.66
                Br |   99.0 |                                                                                 5.0   5.9  20.7  15.8  26.0  11.7  11.2   2.4   1.4                                     | 22.52
                Un |  160.0 |                                                                           1.5   2.5  11.4  11.7  25.5  15.6  20.7   6.0   5.2                                           | 22.48
                Da |   79.8 |                                                                                 5.9   6.5  21.0  15.5  24.6  11.2  11.1   2.5   1.7                                     | 22.47
                RP |   62.5 |                                                   8.5   8.7  25.3  16.6  22.6   8.9   7.2   1.4   0.7                                                                   | 17.03
                Cg |   52.0 |                                             5.0   6.3  23.2  16.8  26.0  10.9   9.2   1.8   0.9                                                                         | 16.36
                Pr |   60.5 |                                 4.6   6.0  23.1  16.7  25.7  11.0   9.7   2.0   1.1                                                                                     | 14.41
                SL |   19.5 |  27.1  20.4  28.3  13.0   8.2   2.2   0.7   0.1   0.0                                                                                                                   |  7.65
                Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                x means the outcome never occurred.
                A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
                Playoff Matchups:
                Code:
                   |    Cr    Qu    Ya    Ha    Ck    Br    Un    Da    RP    Cg    Pr    SL |   BYE
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.0 |  98.9
                Qu |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   2.5 |  97.2
                Ya |     x     x           x     x   0.0   0.0     x   1.7   2.0   5.2  24.5 |  66.6
                Ha |     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.4   2.5   6.4  26.6 |  63.0
                Ck |     x     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   1.3   1.1   3.8  25.9 |  67.9
                Br |     x     x     x     x     x         0.3   0.1  27.5  27.9  34.8   6.2 |   1.8
                Un |     x     x     x     x     x   0.1         0.3  27.8  34.7  25.8   6.4 |   1.7
                Da |     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2        33.9  29.0  23.2   6.9 |   2.9
                RP |     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.4   1.7   3.1         0.6   0.2   0.0 |    NO
                Cg |     x     x     x     x     x   0.6   0.9   0.2   0.2         0.1     x |    NO
                Pr |     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0           x |    NO
                SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
                Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                RPI Pep Band
                GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

                  Midweekend update...

                  Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^8.59 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
                  1. Quinnipiac
                  2. Cornell
                  3. Harvard
                  4. Clarkson
                    —————
                  5. Yale
                  6. Dartmouth
                  7. Brown
                  8. Union
                    —————
                  9. RPI
                  10. Colgate
                  11. Princeton
                  12. SLU

                  Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                  Rank and Points breakdown:
                  Code:
                     |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                  -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Qu |  375.7 |  72.4  17.0   7.4   2.2   1.0   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.42 | 30.22
                  Cr |  210.6 |  17.2  51.1  18.4   9.9   3.1   0.3     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.31 | 28.92
                  Ha |  203.6 |   6.0  19.1  41.0  19.3  12.1   2.6   0.1     x     x     x     x     x |  3.21 | 27.76
                  Ck |  192.8 |   3.0   7.7  17.0  35.0  28.7   8.1   0.4   0.0     x     x     x     x |  4.05 | 26.14
                  Ya |  130.6 |   1.5   5.0  14.3  23.5  31.5  22.8   1.4   0.1     x     x     x     x |  4.53 | 25.68
                  Da |   88.9 |   0.0   0.2   1.9   9.9  20.2  36.7  19.4  10.4   1.4     x     x     x |  5.98 | 23.88
                  Br |   92.6 |     x     x     x   0.1   2.0  21.7  46.4  22.5   6.7   0.6     x     x |  7.12 | 21.64
                  Un |  143.7 |     x     x     x   0.1   1.4   7.4  26.5  40.6  20.5   3.4   0.1     x |  7.82 | 20.89
                  RP |   70.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.3   4.3  18.0  41.4  31.4   4.6     x |  9.13 | 18.55
                  Cg |   59.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.7   8.5  29.0  55.1   5.8     x |  9.55 | 17.90
                  Pr |   65.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.9   9.6  89.4   0.1 | 10.89 | 15.03
                  SL |   19.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1  99.9 | 12.00 |  7.38
                  
                     |  KRACH |     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32 |AvgPts
                  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Qu |  375.7 |                                                                                                                           1.1   2.1  11.2  12.1  31.7  16.4  25.5 | 30.22
                  Cr |  210.6 |                                                                                                                     1.1   2.7  15.8  14.4  34.3  13.4  18.4       | 28.92
                  Ha |  203.6 |                                                                                                               2.7   3.7  17.5  14.2  32.1  12.6  17.2             | 27.76
                  Ck |  192.8 |                                                                                                         5.3   6.3  26.8  16.3  29.3   8.0   8.0                   | 26.14
                  Ya |  130.6 |                                                                                                         9.7   9.1  31.8  16.1  23.6   5.4   4.4                   | 25.68
                  Da |   88.9 |                                                                                             9.0   8.2  28.1  15.4  25.6   6.8   6.8                               | 23.88
                  Br |   92.6 |                                                                                10.5   9.4  31.2  15.9  24.0   5.2   3.8                                           | 21.64
                  Un |  143.7 |                                                                           8.6   8.1  28.4  15.6  25.7   6.8   6.7                                                 | 20.89
                  RP |   70.3 |                                                              12.3  10.2  31.3  15.3  22.0   5.0   4.0                                                             | 18.55
                  Cg |   59.4 |                                                         6.7   7.5  30.4  16.6  27.3   6.3   5.2                                                                   | 17.90
                  Pr |   65.0 |                                       5.9   6.8  28.9  16.5  27.9   7.1   6.9                                                                                     | 15.03
                  SL |   19.6 |  34.3  19.8  28.7   9.6   6.3   1.0   0.3                                                                                                                         |  7.38
                  Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                  0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                  x means the outcome never occurred.
                  A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
                  Playoff Matchups:
                  Code:
                     |    Qu    Cr    Ha    Ck    Ya    Da    Br    Un    RP    Cg    Pr    SL |   BYE
                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.0 |  99.0
                  Cr |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   3.1 |  96.6
                  Ha |     x     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   2.4  12.1 |  85.3
                  Ck |     x     x     x           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.7   0.2   7.6  28.7 |  62.8
                  Ya |     x     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.1   2.6   2.9  18.7  31.5 |  44.3
                  Da |     x     x     x     x     x         0.1   1.3  14.0  16.7  34.3  20.2 |  11.9
                  Br |     x     x     x     x     x   0.1         4.5  28.2  32.4  25.3   2.0 |   0.1
                  Un |     x     x     x     x     x   0.6   1.9        29.6  32.4  10.1   1.4 |   0.1
                  RP |     x     x     x     x     x   0.7   1.8  14.0         5.1   1.0     x |    NO
                  Cg |     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.5   4.0   2.3         0.3     x |    NO
                  Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x           x |    NO
                  SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
                  Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                  RPI Pep Band
                  GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                  🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                  2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                  2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                  2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

                    Here we are, staring the final weekend of games in the face and almost nothing is set in stone (Sorry SLU). Three teams have a decent chance to take first overall, six teams could get a bye, eleven (!) teams could host in the first round, and conversely seven teams could be on the road. Let's see how it all plays out!

                    NOTE: I'm pretty sure Dartmouth can still end up in ninth, it just requires a four-way tie with Brown, Colgate, and Union, and this sim doesn't do four-way ties. I'm not sure if Brown is definitely out of the byes, I didn't play around enough to see if I could get them in.

                    Simulated Final Standings (EXHAUSTIVE search of 531,441 possibilities):
                    1. Cornell
                    2. Quinnipiac
                    3. Harvard
                    4. Clarkson
                      —————
                    5. Yale
                    6. Dartmouth
                    7. Brown
                    8. Union
                      —————
                    9. Colgate
                    10. RPI
                    11. Princeton
                    12. SLU

                    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                    Rank and Points breakdown:
                    Code:
                       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Cr |  225.8 |  51.3  22.6  16.9   8.9   0.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.84 | 29.76
                    Qu |  329.6 |  28.4  31.6  24.9  11.4   3.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.30 | 28.86
                    Ha |  218.0 |  13.8  29.3  35.0  21.2   0.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.66 | 28.68
                    Ck |  210.8 |   6.5  16.4  21.1  49.1   6.9   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.33 | 27.44
                    Ya |  121.5 |   0.0   0.1   2.1   8.7  67.2  18.9   3.0     x     x     x     x     x |  5.12 | 24.85
                    Da |   82.2 |     x     x     x   0.6  16.0  30.3  41.7  11.3     x     x     x     x |  6.47 | 22.90
                    Br |   99.7 |     x     x     x     x   5.3  48.6  41.7   4.1   0.3     x     x     x |  6.46 | 22.71
                    Un |  135.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   2.1  11.8  55.0  21.3   9.2   0.6     x |  8.25 | 20.01
                    Cg |   62.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.8  22.2  58.2  16.9   0.9     x |  8.93 | 19.00
                    RP |   63.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   7.4  18.8  58.3  15.4     x |  9.81 | 17.42
                    Pr |   66.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   1.4  15.6  83.0     x | 10.82 | 15.58
                    SL |   18.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x 100.0 | 12.00 |  6.79
                    
                       |  KRACH |     6     7     8     9    10   ...    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31 |AvgPts
                    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Cr |  225.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.7   6.5  38.2  16.8  35.8 | 29.76
                    Qu |  329.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   4.7   5.8  30.0  17.4  42.0     x | 28.86
                    Ha |  218.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.5   7.1  34.5  16.2  35.8     x | 28.68
                    Ck |  210.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.9   8.7  40.0  14.6  27.9     x     x | 27.44
                    Ya |  121.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  19.4  12.6  44.3  10.6  13.0     x     x     x     x | 24.85
                    Da |   82.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  20.3  12.3  40.4  11.0  16.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.90
                    Br |   99.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  23.1  13.6  43.2   9.7  10.4     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.71
                    Un |  135.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  17.5  11.6  41.4  11.7  17.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.01
                    Cg |   62.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  13.2  11.6  50.3  11.7  13.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.00
                    RP |   63.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  32.7  15.6  36.6   7.7   7.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.42
                    Pr |   66.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x  28.9  14.5  37.1   8.8  10.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.58
                    SL |   18.5 |  53.4  19.7  22.0   3.5   1.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.79
                    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but is less than 0.05% likely to occur.
                    x means the outcome never occurred and is likely impossible.
                    Playoff Matchups:
                    Code:
                       |    Da    Br    Un    Cg    RP    Pr    SL |   BYE
                    ------------------------------------------------------
                    Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3 |  99.7
                    Qu |     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.6 |  96.3
                    Ha |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.7 |  99.3
                    Ck |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   6.9 |  93.1
                    Ya |     x     x   0.7   0.6   7.9  12.6  67.2 |  10.9
                    Da |           x   4.4  16.1  36.9  25.9  16.0 |   0.6
                    Br |     x         5.8   6.7  25.5  56.4   5.3 |    NO
                    Un |     x     x        49.7  15.4   3.8     x |    NO
                    Cg |     x   0.3  15.8         6.8   1.1     x |    NO
                    RP |     x     x   4.4   2.9         0.2     x |    NO
                    Pr |     x     x   0.0     x     x           x |    NO
                    SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
                    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                    Last edited by lugnut92; 02-24-2019, 01:28 PM.
                    RPI Pep Band
                    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

                      In a four way tie between Dartmouth, Brown, Colgate, and Union:

                      Dartmouth would have 3-5 points (assume 3 points since they'd have to lose both games for this to happen)
                      Brown has 9 points
                      Colgate has 5 points
                      Union would have 5-7 points (assume 7 for the same reasoning as before)

                      That would indeed put Dartmouth in 9th.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

                        Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
                        In a four way tie between Dartmouth, Brown, Colgate, and Union:

                        Dartmouth would have 3-5 points (assume 3 points since they'd have to lose both games for this to happen)
                        Brown has 9 points
                        Colgate has 5 points
                        Union would have 5-7 points (assume 7 for the same reasoning as before)

                        That would indeed put Dartmouth in 9th.
                        That's what I had too. I'm pretty sure Brown is capped at 5th since they didn't do well against the teams near them, but I didn't try very hard to get them over.
                        RPI Pep Band
                        GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                        🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                        2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                        2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                        2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

                          Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                          That's what I had too. I'm pretty sure Brown is capped at 5th since they didn't do well against the teams near them, but I didn't try very hard to get them over.
                          Brown's cap is 25. They would have to tie with CCT; Yale and/or Dartmouth could be involved.

                          Brown took 0 points on Clarkson, 0 on Yale, and 4 on Dartmouth.
                          Clarkson took 2 on Dartmouth, which would then place them above Brown on any sort of tiebreak (minimum of 6 points between tied teams).

                          Out of curiosity, what tiebreaks did you get Dartmouth in? I assume a three-way with Yale? CCT would take H/H on ECAC wins.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

                            Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
                            Out of curiosity, what tiebreaks did you get Dartmouth in? I assume a three-way with Yale? CCT would take H/H on ECAC wins.
                            Yeah, it's the three-way with Yale.
                            RPI Pep Band
                            GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                            🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                            2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                            2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                            2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

                              BTW lugnut, it seems odd your app couldn't process 4 way ties but it could do 3... procedure's the same for both; wouldn't it be easier to pass in a list (or array, but IIRC you use python) of tied teams, instead of 3 variables?

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

                                Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
                                BTW lugnut, it seems odd your app couldn't process 4 way ties but it could do 3... procedure's the same for both; wouldn't it be easier to pass in a list (or array, but IIRC you use python) of tied teams, instead of 3 variables?
                                It's entirely a factor of laziness and too much hard-coding. The issue is that teams can pop out of the tie and then you have to start over and instead of doing it by logic, I explicitly coded it out for three-way ties. One day I'll make it work for n-way ties, but today is not that day.
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